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从日均盈利2.5亿到渠道预付款腰斩,茅台如何应对白酒调整期?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-17 04:18
Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's H1 2025 financial report reveals a significant slowdown in growth, with total revenue of 89.4 billion yuan, a 9.16% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, an 8.89% increase, marking the first time since 2015 that revenue growth has fallen below double digits [2][3][4] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Moutai's daily profit was approximately 250 million yuan, a drop of over 6 percentage points compared to the 328 million yuan daily profit in 2024 [2][4] - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 38.8 billion yuan and net profit of 18.5 billion yuan, with growth rates of only 7.3% and 5.2%, respectively, marking the lowest quarterly growth in nearly a decade [2][4] Strategic Adjustments - Moutai has set a growth target of 9% for the year, achieving this through controlled growth strategies to navigate the downward cycle [4][6] - The company has experienced a rare decline in gross margin, with overall gross margin dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 91.5% despite a 10.24% increase in Moutai liquor revenue [4][6] Market Dynamics - The mid-range liquor market is facing intense competition, with Moutai's series liquor experiencing price pressure from competitors like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [5][6] - The number of series liquor distributors increased by 137 to a historical high of 2,234, but sales per store have significantly declined, indicating pressure on existing distributors [5][6] Financial Indicators - Contract liabilities (prepayments from distributors) fell sharply by 42.59% to 5.507 billion yuan, the lowest since 2016, signaling weakened distributor confidence [6][7] - Operating cash flow decreased by 64.18% to 13.119 billion yuan, raising concerns about the sustainability of Moutai's reliance on direct sales channels [6][7] Future Outlook - Despite challenges, Moutai's international market revenue grew by 31.26% to 2.893 billion yuan, and direct sales maintained an 18.6% growth rate [7] - To meet the annual growth target of 9%, Moutai needs to achieve revenue of 41.6 billion yuan and net profit of 21.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, necessitating a recovery in growth rates [7]
7000元的新品茅台上线遭疯抢,有“黄牛”在网上报价上万元
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-08 07:28
今日(8月8日)上午9点,贵州茅台超高端新品"贵州茅台酒(五星商标上市70周年纪念)"(以下简称五星茅台纪念酒)在"i茅台"正式开 售。虽然单瓶价格高达7000元,但却挡不住"茅粉"的抢购热情。 湛工艺复刻"三节瓶"轮廓,在设计上致敬1954年的老版茅台酒瓶。 据悉,这款新品每一瓶均印有专属身份编码(19540501~20240430),限量25568瓶对应25568个专属身份编码。瓶身采用玻璃材质,以精 《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者了解到,正是因为其特殊属性,该新品早早成为部分"黄牛"争抢的对象。今日9点新品一上线即被"疯抢", 据记者粗略估算,该产品收入达到1.79亿元。 不过,短期的炒作不可持续,当前处于行业调整期,飞天茅台、蛇年生肖茅台、茅台1935市场价格齐跌,行业争相抢夺"质价比"市场;而 为了迎合年轻消费者,更是开启了一轮"低度"竞赛。如今,茅台却反其道行之,推出7000元/瓶限量款超高端产品,是什么打算呢? "一日一瓶"试水情绪价值 1954年5月1日,茅台酒厂以"金轮牌"商标的诞生开启了品牌化的道路。其核心的五星元素被麦穗环抱、齿轮托举,而这也是如今"五星 牌"贵州茅台酒商标的前身。 为了纪 ...
飞天跌破2000,黄牛倒贴钱,下一个是谁?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 05:15
Core Viewpoint - The market for Moutai liquor is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices dropping sharply and consumers losing interest in purchasing and reselling the product [1][10][12]. Group 1: Price Decline - The price of Feitian Moutai has fallen from 2500 to 1800, nearing the official price of 1499 [1]. - The current buyback price for Feitian is 1750, while retail is only 1900, making it unprofitable for sellers [3]. - Moutai 1935 is now priced lower than the official price, indicating a broader decline across the Moutai product line [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The scarcity that once drove up prices has dissipated, with Moutai now readily available for purchase, leading to a chaotic market [12]. - Consumers who previously viewed Moutai as a status symbol are now treating it as a regular consumer product, reducing the incentive to hoard [14]. - The absence of scalpers and the decline in interest in Moutai have led to a significant shift in consumer behavior, with many opting to invest in experiences rather than liquor [14]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The decline of Moutai is affecting the entire high-end liquor market, potentially allowing competitors like Wuliangye and Fenjiu to gain market share [14]. - The market for old liquor is not yet developed, leaving buyback merchants struggling to adapt [14]. - There is uncertainty regarding potential price controls from the company, as inventory continues to accumulate without sales [14].
飞天茅台失守2000元大关,酒商“咬牙”坚守
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-06-22 21:19
Price Trends - The price of Feitian Moutai has continued to decline, with the original box price dropping from 2000 RMB to 1980 RMB per bottle, and scattered bottle prices decreasing from 1950 RMB to 1930 RMB per bottle [2] - In Jinan, the price of Feitian Moutai scattered bottles is reported between 2000 RMB and 2100 RMB, while original boxes range from 2030 RMB to 2130 RMB [3] - The price of the "Snake Moutai" has also decreased from the factory price of 2499 RMB to 2300 RMB per bottle [2] Market Conditions - Sales volume in the liquor store has dropped by over 50% compared to the same period last year, leading to high inventory levels of over 40 million RMB [2] - Many liquor merchants have reported a significant decline in sales, with some stating that they can only sell a few bottles at a time [5] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with some merchants indicating that they expect a price increase before the Mid-Autumn Festival [3] Recovery and Production Adjustments - Several liquor recovery merchants have suspended operations due to falling prices, with recovery prices dropping below 2000 RMB per bottle [4] - In Moutai Town, many small to medium-sized enterprises are reducing or halting production due to poor sales [5] - Guizhou Moutai has announced a production reduction for 2024, with an expected output of approximately 56,300 tons, down from 57,200 tons in 2023 [6] Industry Response - Moutai distributors have formed a coalition to stabilize market prices, agreeing to limit supply to certain channels and increase market inspections [6] - The industry is facing a significant transformation due to overcapacity and changing consumer demand, leading to a more cautious approach among producers and distributors [5][6]
茅台跌价、潮玩天价,酒业如何抓住年轻人的“情绪赛道”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 13:05
Group 1 - The unique mint green "LABUBU" was auctioned for 1.08 million yuan, showcasing a significant increase in value from its original purchase price in 2020 [1] - The price of the 2025 Flying Moutai has dropped below 2,000 yuan per bottle, indicating a decline in the market for traditional collectible liquors [1][2] - The market for collectible items is shifting, with younger consumers showing a preference for trendy and emotional products like "LABUBU" over traditional collectibles like Moutai [5][7] Group 2 - The rise of "LABUBU" reflects a broader trend of emotional consumption among younger demographics, who prioritize products that resonate with their personal experiences [5][6] - The liquor industry is encouraged to innovate and adapt to the emotional needs of younger consumers, moving beyond traditional quality and price considerations [7][8] - Companies like Huawei and Pop Mart are leading the way in integrating innovative resources to enhance consumer experiences and meet evolving market demands [7]
禁酒令,白酒何时止跌?
集思录· 2025-06-15 14:12
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a recent alcohol ban in Anhui province on the liquor industry, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, and highlights the misconception that buying stocks supports the company rather than the previous shareholders [2][3][4]. Group 1: Alcohol Ban and Its Implications - The alcohol ban is seen as a response to fiscal constraints, with 40% of national fiscal spending allocated to public sector salaries and benefits, which may lead to restrictions on alcohol consumption [5][11]. - The decline in demand for alcohol is attributed to changing social behaviors among younger generations, who are less inclined to drink for social interactions [9][12]. - Moutai's price has significantly dropped from a peak of 3,800 yuan to below 2,000 yuan, indicating a broader downturn in the high-end liquor market [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Sentiment - The article suggests that the liquor industry is facing long-term challenges, with the potential for further declines until weaker brands exit the market [16]. - Some analysts believe that the current market conditions may present short-term buying opportunities for leading liquor companies, anticipating a rebound due to overselling [16]. - The discussion includes the historical context of alcohol bans and their economic implications, suggesting that the government may increase alcohol taxes to address healthcare costs associated with alcohol consumption [15].
禁酒令,白酒何时止跌?
集思录· 2025-06-15 14:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a recent alcohol ban in Anhui province on the liquor industry, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, and highlights the misconception that buying stocks supports the company rather than the previous shareholders [2][3][4]. Group 1: Alcohol Ban and Its Implications - The alcohol ban is seen as a response to fiscal constraints, with 40% of national fiscal spending allocated to public sector salaries and benefits [5]. - The ban has exacerbated existing challenges in the liquor industry, particularly for high-end brands, with Moutai's price dropping from a peak of 3,800 yuan to below 2,000 yuan [5][6]. - The demand for alcohol is declining, especially among younger generations who are less inclined to socialize and drink [9]. Group 2: Economic Context - The economic downturn and the real estate sector's struggles are fundamental issues affecting the liquor market [5]. - The article suggests that the alcohol ban is not the sole problem, as societal trends indicate a long-term decrease in alcohol consumption [8][9]. - The tax revenue from Moutai constitutes 57.8% of Guizhou's income, indicating the significant economic role of liquor companies [11]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Some analysts suggest that the current market conditions may present a short-term buying opportunity for leading liquor brands, anticipating a rebound [16]. - The article emphasizes that the liquor industry may face prolonged challenges until weaker brands exit the market [16].