Core Viewpoint - The wholesale reference price for 500ml Feitian Moutai at 53 degrees is reported to be 1620 RMB, reflecting a decrease of 20 RMB from the previous day, while the original box price remains stable at 1675 RMB [1] Price Monitoring - The price for 500ml Feitian Moutai in loose bottles has decreased to 1620 RMB, down by 20 RMB from the previous day [1] - The original box price for Feitian Moutai remains unchanged at 1675 RMB compared to the previous day [1]

Group 1 - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.40%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.07% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a net subscription of 10 million units yesterday, despite a current decline of 0.56% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has attracted over 120 million yuan in net inflows over the past 10 trading days, indicating strong investor interest despite recent price weakness [1] Group 2 - Dongpeng Beverage reported Q3 revenue of 6.107 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.36%, and a net profit of 1.386 billion yuan, up 41.91% year-on-year [2] - The food and beverage industry is primarily driven by growth, with beverage leaders maintaining structural prosperity due to single product drivers, while food raw materials and health products are expected to see high growth or acceleration [2] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "low expectation, weak reality" state, with Q3 reports serving as an important observation window as external factors decline and liquor companies adjust strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1690 RMB, marking a new low since its listing and falling below the 1700 RMB threshold for the first time [1] Price Trends - The wholesale price for the original box of Feitian Moutai is reported at 1715 RMB, down 20 RMB from the previous day [1] - Both products have seen a cumulative decline of over 31% from their initial prices of 2220 RMB and 2255 RMB respectively [1] Industry Analysis - According to Guotai Junan's latest research report, while the sales of liquor have shown a month-on-month recovery during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day peak seasons, the year-on-year performance remains weak [1] - The industry is currently characterized by "low expectations and weak realities" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kweichow Moutai has launched an instant delivery service through its digital marketing platform "i Moutai," allowing consumers to receive orders within 30 minutes, enhancing customer experience and convenience during the peak consumption season of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [1][3]. Group 1: Instant Delivery Service - The instant delivery service allows consumers to select delivery times and is currently available for two products: 1L Flying Moutai priced at 3799 yuan and 500ml premium Flying Moutai at 3299 yuan [1]. - This service is seen as a strategic move into the instant retail market, responding to the growing demand for convenience in alcohol purchases [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Sales Data - The white liquor market is experiencing a surge in sales, with Meituan's flash purchase data indicating an approximately 8-fold year-on-year increase in white liquor sales during the last weekend before the holidays [3]. - Major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao have seen daily transaction amounts exceed 10 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Price Fluctuations of Flying Moutai - The wholesale price of Flying Moutai has shown volatility, with prices fluctuating below 1800 yuan per bottle before the holidays, raising investor concerns [6][7]. - As of September 30, the wholesale price for 500ml Flying Moutai was reported at 1760 yuan, indicating ongoing price instability [7]. Group 4: Company Performance - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [8]. - The company maintains its annual performance target of 9% growth, despite market pressures and rumors of potential downward adjustments [8].

Group 1: Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai has launched an instant delivery service through its digital marketing platform "i Moutai," allowing consumers to receive orders within 30 minutes [1] - The service currently supports two products: 1L Flying Moutai priced at 3799 yuan and 500ml premium Flying Moutai at 3299 yuan [1] - The launch of this service is seen as a strategic move to tap into the growing instant retail market, especially during the peak consumption season of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The instant retail market for alcoholic beverages is projected to grow significantly, with market size expected to rise from less than 20 billion yuan to 36 billion yuan by 2024 [3] - The penetration rate of instant retail in the alcohol sector is anticipated to increase from under 1% to approximately 1.8% [3] - By 2030, the market size could reach between 60 billion yuan and 90 billion yuan, with the liquor category, particularly baijiu, benefiting prominently [3] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The wholesale price of Flying Moutai has shown volatility, with fluctuations observed before the holiday season [5] - As of September 30, the wholesale price for 500ml Flying Moutai was reported at 1760 yuan, following a brief recovery above 1800 yuan [5] - Management has indicated a commitment to maintaining the wholesale price above 1800 yuan, emphasizing a balance between volume and price [6] Group 4: Financial Performance - Kweichow Moutai reported a revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.403 billion yuan, marking an 8.89% increase compared to the previous year [7] - The company has not adjusted its annual performance targets, maintaining a growth expectation of 9% [7]

Group 1 - The wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1770 yuan, marking a new low since its listing, while the original box price remains at 1790 yuan, also a new low [1] - Consumers and investors are questioning whether now is a good time to buy Moutai and if it still holds value as part of asset allocation [1] Group 2 - Moutai possesses unique advantages from an investment perspective, including high gross margins, long product shelf life, stable cash flow, brand barriers, and social attributes that carry cultural symbols and social value [3] - Moutai's brand value has consistently ranked first in the Chinese liquor industry, significantly surpassing the second place [3] Group 3 - Moutai prices are expected to face downward pressure in the short term due to inventory destocking, policy constraints, and seasonal consumption declines, with potential to drop below the market guidance price of 1499 yuan and approach the factory price of 1169 yuan [4] - If consumer recovery does not meet expectations in the next one to two years, Moutai prices may remain low; however, if the economy rebounds, prices could rise [4] - The company emphasizes a long-term approach to address uncertainties and is implementing strategies to stabilize the market, with signs of sales recovery noted since August, particularly ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [4] Group 4 - Attracting a new generation of consumers has become a core issue for major liquor companies, with brands like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongji launching low to ultra-low degree liquor products to appeal to younger demographics [6] - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association predicts that the low-alcohol beverage market in China will exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, entering a new phase of high-end development by 2030 [6]