证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 26 日 白酒持续出清，关注成长板块估值修复 ——食品饮料行业周报 华龙证券研究所 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 《进入中报披露期，白酒龙头业绩稳健 —食品饮料行业周报》2025.08.18 《六月社零增速环比趋缓，消费需求有 待修复—食品饮料行业周报》2025.07.21 《拥抱新变化，开启新征程—食品饮料 行业 2025 年中期策略报告》2025.07.06 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 市场流动性带来估值提升，上周申万一级食品饮料板块上涨 3.29%，子板块其他酒类（+8.21%）、软饮料（+5.06%）、白酒 （+3.62%）涨幅居前，肉制品（-1.01%）跌幅居前。当前进入中 报密集披露期，白酒中报业绩压力集中释放，大众品部分新消费 标的业绩实现快速增长，建议关注超跌后续将有望持续改善的白 酒板块和成长性较高的新消费个股。我们维持行业"推荐"评级。 白酒：自二季度禁酒令以来， 白酒需求端持续承压，短期来看， 政策的边际影响有望逐渐收窄，中报 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "stronger than the market" [2][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.17% in the week of July 28 to August 1, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.94% [8]. - The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a PE-TTM of 20.95x, placing it in the 16th percentile over the past 15 years [15][19]. - The introduction of the "Childcare Subsidy Policy" is expected to benefit the dairy sector, particularly infant formula, by stimulating consumption among over 20 million families [31]. - The white liquor segment is showing signs of bottoming out, with high-end light bottle liquor expected to be a growth area due to its strong repurchase rate and stable profit margins [26][24]. - The soft drink sector is entering a peak season, with a projected continuation of high growth due to new product launches and a favorable market environment [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry index fell by 2.17%, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industries [8]. - The sub-sectors with the least to most decline include: meat products (-0.03%), dairy products (-0.55%), health products (-1.11%), and soft drinks (-4.28%) [10][12]. 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is in a phase of stabilization, with high-end light bottle liquor showing strong growth potential [23]. - The anticipated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan in the Yajiang hydropower project is expected to stimulate long-term consumption in the white liquor sector [24]. - Major brands are increasing dividends, with the overall dividend yield in the white liquor sector exceeding 4% [3]. 3. Dairy Products - The newly implemented childcare subsidy policy is projected to directly boost dairy product consumption, especially infant formula [31]. - Companies like Beingmate and Sunshine Dairy have seen significant stock price increases following the announcement of the subsidy [4]. 4. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry has shown strong performance, with a 3.2% year-on-year increase in production in June 2025 [32]. - The sector is expected to maintain high growth due to the introduction of new products and the ongoing peak season [33]. 5. Cost Indicators - Sugar prices remained stable, while prices for soybeans, corrugated paper, and glass saw slight increases [36].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector experienced a slight pullback, with stable prices for Feitian liquor. The white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18.06X, which is 5.23% below the reasonable low level over the past decade. Strong alpha companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended, along with beta companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Water Well [2][12] - The beer sector saw a decline, with Budweiser Asia reporting a 3.9% decrease in revenue and a 6.2% drop in sales in Q2 2025. However, there is optimism for recovery in beer sales due to upcoming consumption promotion policies and adjustments to alcohol bans [3][13] - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a pullback, with a focus on new products and performance data catalysts. Companies that can enhance efficiency and market share are highlighted as strong investment opportunities [4][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector declined by 2.17%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.75%. Specific declines included snacks (-3.03%) and soft drinks (-4.28%) [1][21] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector saw a 2.40% decline, with notable drops in companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Shede Liquor. Despite this, the mid-term value of the sector remains promising [2][12] - The yellow wine sector is also under observation, with companies like Gu Yue Long Shan actively repurchasing shares [12] Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer sector's decline was led by companies like Qingdao Beer and Budweiser Asia. The latter's performance was impacted by weak demand in China and Korea [3][13] - The soft drink sector also faced challenges, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Master Kong showing declines [15] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The consumer goods sector is focusing on new product launches and performance data. Companies like Qiaqia Food and Jinzai are expanding their product lines [4][20] - The dairy sector remains stable, with average milk prices at 3.03 RMB/kg, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.90% [18] Investment Recommendations - Strong alpha liquor companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended, along with consumer goods companies that focus on cost reduction and market share growth [5][20]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (expected to outperform the market index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [18] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that liquor companies are expanding into instant retail and increasing new channel development. The launch of "Moutai Sauce Fragrance·Shared by Thousands of Families" on Meituan Flash Purchase is a significant step, with Moutai's authorized stores entering this channel in bulk, which is expected to enhance downstream sales and support healthy industry development [8][14] - The report identifies three main investment lines: high-end liquor with relatively strong demand, mid-range liquor with ongoing national expansion, and real estate liquor products positioned in expanding price ranges [8] Summary by Sections Price Data Tracking - As of August 1, 2025, the wholesale price of Moutai (2022) is 2020 CNY per box, down 30 CNY from the previous week, while the price of the 2022 loose bottle remains stable at 1940 CNY per bottle [9] - The price of Wuliangye (Baijiu) is 900 CNY per bottle, unchanged from the previous week [9] Production Data Tracking - In June 2025, China's liquor production was 330,000 kiloliters, down 6.5% year-on-year; beer production was 4.12 million kiloliters, down 0.2%; soft drink production was 18.43 million kiloliters, up 3.2%; and wine production was 9000 kiloliters, down 18.2% [12] Company Announcements and Events Summary - In the first half of 2025, the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry saw a revenue of 814.69 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, but profits fell by 2.1% [14] - Qingdao Beer expects its transaction volume on Meituan Flash Purchase to exceed 1.5 billion CNY for the year, with sales up nearly 60% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [14]

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [1][3] Core Views - The food and beverage sector has shown a weekly increase of 0.74%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.67% [1][7] - The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a PE-TTM of 21.41x, placing it in the 16th percentile over the past 15 years [14][17] - The white liquor sector is experiencing a rebound driven by external economic and policy factors, particularly the Ya River hydropower project, which is expected to boost consumption [4][22] - The beer sector faced slight pressure in June, with production down by 0.2% year-on-year, but Qingdao Beer is diversifying into the water market [29][30] - The dairy sector shows a mixed performance, with production up by 4.1% in June, but prices for fresh milk are still under pressure [34][36] - The soft drink market is shifting towards health and functionality, with electrolyte drinks seeing significant sales growth [40][41] Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage sector increased by 0.74% in the week of July 21-25, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [1][7] - The sector's performance was better from Monday to Thursday, gaining 2.44%, but saw a significant drop of 1.65% on Friday [1][7] White Liquor - Public funds have significantly reduced their allocation to white liquor, with a heavy reliance on stable pricing and dividends from leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [3][22] - The Ya River hydropower project is expected to stimulate white liquor consumption due to increased infrastructure investment [22][24] Beer - In June, beer production was 4.12 million kiloliters, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, attributed to weak dining consumption [29][30] - Qingdao Beer is expanding into the health drink market, leveraging celebrity endorsements to boost sales [30][41] Dairy Products - Dairy production in June reached 254.6 thousand tons, up 4.1% year-on-year, while the average price of fresh milk is stabilizing [34][36] Soft Drinks - The trend towards health and functionality is reshaping the soft drink market, with significant growth in electrolyte drink sales, which increased from 476 million yuan to 1.493 billion yuan year-on-year [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "stronger than the market" [2][47]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.68% in the week from July 14 to July 18, underperforming slightly compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.69% [2][6]. - The white liquor segment is expected to stabilize after a period of decline, with major brands maintaining stable prices [3][21]. - The soft drink sector is entering a peak season, with expectations of continued growth driven by new product launches [3][34]. - The snack food segment has shown mixed performance, with some companies experiencing significant profit declines due to rising costs and increased marketing expenses [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance ranked 14th among 31 sub-industries, with soft drinks leading the gains at +2.02% [2][9]. - The overall valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with a PE-TTM of 21.26x, placing it in the 16th percentile over the past 15 years [4][13]. 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry has seen collective declines in performance, but signs of stabilization are emerging [3][21]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have maintained stable pricing, with Moutai's price at 1930 RMB per bottle [21][22]. 3. Beer - Beer production in June 2025 was 4.12 million kiloliters, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, attributed to weak restaurant consumption [3][26]. 4. Dairy Products - Dairy production in June 2025 reached 254.6 thousand tons, up 4.1% year-on-year, but the industry is experiencing mixed performance among companies [3][28]. 5. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is expected to maintain high growth rates, with a production increase of 3.2% in June 2025 [3][34]. 6. Snacks - The snack food sector has shown varied results, with some companies like Ganyuan Foods reporting significant profit declines due to rising costs [3][36].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai 1935 has significantly dropped from its peak, with current market prices falling below 600 yuan per bottle, indicating a substantial decline in demand and market positioning [1][5][9]. Pricing Trends - Initially launched at a retail price of 1188 yuan per bottle, Moutai 1935 saw its price soar to 1899 yuan shortly after its release, but has since plummeted by 68.93% to around 590-681 yuan on platforms like JD.com [1][5]. - On other e-commerce platforms, prices for Moutai 1935 remain above 600 yuan, with some listings on Pinduoduo and Tmall still exceeding 700 yuan [3][5]. Sales Performance - Moutai 1935 achieved sales of 50 billion yuan in its first year (2022) and is projected to reach 110 billion yuan in 2023, with a target of 120 billion yuan in 2024. However, the growth rate is expected to decline sharply, with a projected increase of less than 10% in 2024 compared to 2023 [5][8]. Market Positioning - Moutai 1935 is positioned as a "premium tasting product" within the thousand-yuan price range, which is a critical segment in the domestic liquor market [4][5]. - The decline in Moutai 1935's price has relieved pressure on competing brands, such as Wuliangye, which has managed to maintain its market position and pricing strategy [7][8]. Industry Dynamics - The drop in Moutai 1935's price is attributed to various factors, including changes in consumer behavior and a return to rational pricing as speculative demand diminishes [9]. - Moutai's management emphasizes a collaborative approach with other liquor brands to foster healthy market development and explore differentiated growth strategies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped, indicating a downward trend in the high-end liquor market, with potential implications for other brands like Wuliangye [2][6][15]. Price Trends - On June 25, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Feitian Moutai was reported at 1830 RMB per bottle, down 85 RMB from the previous day; the price for the 24-year version was 1890 RMB, down 60 RMB [2]. - The price of 43-degree Feitian Moutai and other products has also seen a decline, with kilogram Moutai dropping nearly 5% over two days [3]. - The prices for various Moutai products have consistently decreased, with the 25-year bottle previously selling for 3800 RMB now at 2230 RMB, marking a decline of over 41% [8]. Market Reactions - E-commerce prices have also fallen, with some platforms listing 25-year Feitian Moutai at 1800 RMB per bottle [10]. - Many second-hand gift recovery businesses have paused Moutai purchases due to the significant price drop, with recovery prices now between 1700-1800 RMB [10]. Impact on Competitors - The decline in Moutai prices is expected to exert pressure on other high-end liquor brands, particularly Wuliangye, leading to potential price competition and demand shifts [15][16]. - Analysts suggest that Moutai's price drop could trigger panic selling among distributors, further affecting the sales outlook for Wuliangye and similar brands [16]. Company Actions - Moutai Group's General Manager Wang Li has been actively visiting major e-commerce platforms to stabilize online prices and maintain distributor confidence [17]. - Recent actions by Wang Li may aim to leverage partnerships for expanding Moutai's market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia [18].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of Moutai have significantly declined, with various products experiencing substantial drops, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and consumer demand [1][2][4]. Price Decline of Moutai - As of June 22, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Moutai dropped to 1935 yuan per bottle, down 10 yuan from the previous day, while the retail price for scattered bottles fell to 1870 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan [1]. - The 24-year Moutai's wholesale price fell by 510 yuan to 1450 yuan per bottle, and the scattered bottle price decreased by 30 yuan to 1900 yuan [1]. - The 23-year Moutai also saw a decline, with the wholesale price dropping to 2100 yuan per bottle, down 50 yuan, and the scattered bottle price fell to 2030 yuan, also down 50 yuan [1]. Broader Market Impact - Other Moutai products, such as the Zodiac Snake edition, saw a price drop to 2230 yuan per bottle, marking a decline of over 41% from its peak [2]. - The newly released Shengle Feitian Moutai is now priced at 2300 yuan per bottle, down 50 yuan from the previous day, representing a drop of over 32% from its high of 3400 yuan [2]. - The 15-year Moutai's price decreased by more than 12%, falling from 5030 yuan to 4400 yuan [2]. E-commerce Price Trends - On e-commerce platforms, the price of Moutai has also dropped significantly, with some stores listing it at 1820 yuan per bottle and double bottle packs at 3600 yuan, equating to 1800 yuan per bottle [2]. - The 43-degree Moutai was reported at 1580 yuan for a double bottle pack, translating to less than 800 yuan per bottle [2]. Impact on Other High-end Liquor Brands - The price decline of Moutai is expected to exert pressure on other premium liquor brands like Wuliangye, with a noted drop in its wholesale price to 905 yuan per bottle, down 4.74% from the beginning of the year [3]. - The price of Wuliangye's 5L variant also fell by 18.18%, indicating a broader trend of price reductions across high-end liquor brands [3]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing price drop of Moutai could lead to panic selling in distribution channels, further impacting the sales expectations for Wuliangye and other premium brands [4].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of Feitian Moutai have significantly declined, with various vintages experiencing substantial drops, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics for high-end liquor [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of June 22, 2023, the wholesale price of 25-year Feitian Moutai (original box) is reported at 1935 yuan per bottle, down 10 yuan from the previous day, while the price for loose bottles is 1870 yuan, down 30 yuan [1][2]. - The 24-year Feitian Moutai (original box) has seen a drastic drop to 1450 yuan, down 510 yuan, and the loose bottle price is now 1900 yuan, down 30 yuan [1][2]. - The 23-year Feitian Moutai (original box) is priced at 2100 yuan, down 50 yuan, and the loose bottle price is 2030 yuan, also down 50 yuan [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Following a historic drop below the psychological price of 2000 yuan per bottle for 25-year Feitian Moutai, the market appears to be in a downward trend, with multiple vintages experiencing price drops [3]. - The price of the Zodiac Snake edition, which was 3800 yuan at the beginning of the year, has fallen to 2230 yuan, marking a decline of over 41% from its peak [3]. - The newly released Shengle Feitian is now priced at 2300 yuan, down from 3400 yuan, reflecting a decrease of over 32% [3]. E-commerce Impact - On e-commerce platforms, the retail price of Feitian Moutai has also dropped, with some listings showing prices as low as 1820 yuan per bottle [4]. - The price for a double bottle set of Feitian Moutai is reported at 3600 yuan, averaging 1800 yuan per bottle, with guarantees against counterfeit products [4]. Competitive Pressure - The decline in Feitian Moutai prices is expected to exert pressure on other premium liquor brands, particularly Wuliangye, which has also seen price reductions [4][7]. - Wuliangye's 52-degree version is now priced at 905 yuan per bottle, down from 950 yuan at the beginning of the year, indicating a 4.74% decrease [4]. - The ongoing price drop of Feitian Moutai may lead to panic selling in distribution channels, further impacting the sales expectations for other high-end liquor brands [7].