| 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1915 | 1830 ↓ | | 2 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1850 | 1780 ↓ | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1950 | 1890 1 | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1900 | 1830 ↓ | | 23年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 2100 | 2100 | | 23年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 2030 | 2030 | | 公斤茅台(原) | 53度/1L | 3400 | 3270 4 | | 43度飞天(原) | 43度/500ml | 805 | 800 L | | 43度飞天(散) | 43度/500ml | 800 | 790 ↓ | | 43度喜宴(红) | 43 度/500ml | 720 | 720 | | 巽风飞天 | 53度/375ml | 1230 | 1230 | 本文转载自21世纪经济报道 值班编辑 | 江江 视觉 ...

作 者丨茅宁 业内人士对投资快报记者表示，去金融属性，供应未减少，叠加需求下滑，茅台的价格预计 还将持续回落，甚至不排除会跌破1499元；而茅台降价对其他高端白酒品牌尤其是最接近茅 台的五粮液构成价格挤压和需求分流压力。广州的一位投资者认为， 飞天茅台价格跳水将削 弱包括五粮液等在内其他高端白酒性价比优势。 "茅台持续降价还可能引发渠道恐慌性抛售， 进一步恶化五粮液等高端白酒的终端动销预期。" 本期编辑 刘雪莹 茅台股价跌至1400元关口！1个月市值蒸发2500亿元 泡泡玛特一新店，开业2小时卖光闭店！黄牛不炒茅台炒Labubu，月入数万元 成本几十，竟卖899元！直播间 "陈年酱香" 猫腻曝光：酒精勾兑、年份造假 SFC 21君荐读 投资快报记者关注到，在6月11日25年飞天茅台散瓶价"历史性"地跌破2000元/瓶的"心理防 线"后，飞天茅台似乎陷入下滑通道。6月15日，25年原箱和24年散瓶也宣告 "破防"，当日两 者批发参考价均为1990元，分别较上一日下跌了10元和20元。6月20日，24年原箱也加入 到"破防"的队伍中去，当日率先"破防"的25年散瓶价退守至1900元/瓶。 此外，6月22日，还有多 ...

此外，6月22日，还有多个品种的茅台也出现了"跳水"。其中，年初"今日酒价"上为3800元/瓶的生肖 蛇，原箱价较上一日大跌40元至2230元/瓶，为其上市以来新低，较高位的跌幅超过了41%。此外，今 年才正式发布的笙乐飞天报2300元/瓶，较上一日下跌50元， 较3400元/瓶的高位跌去了逾32%；十五年 飞天茅台报4400元/瓶，较上一日下跌50元，较年初的5030元跌去超过12%。 值得一提的是，在批发参考价飞天茅台大面积"破防"的同时，飞天茅台在一些电商平台上的零售价 也"跳水"。6月22日，在拼多多，飞天茅台在一些店铺的售价仅1820元/瓶，多家店铺双瓶装售价报3600 元，折合每瓶仅1800元，相关店铺均承诺假一赔十；日前批发参考价也曾跳水的43度飞天茅台，双瓶装 在一些店铺的售价报1580元，折合每瓶已不到800元。 全线"溃防"？飞天茅台大面积"跳水"， 25年散瓶跌破1900元/瓶！ 6月22日，"今日酒价"公众号披露的批发参考价显示，25年飞天茅台（53度/500ml，下同）原箱报1935 元/瓶，较上一日下跌10元，散瓶价1870元/瓶，较上一日下跌30元； 24年飞天茅台原箱报1450 ...

Group 1: 2024 Market Characteristics - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period in 2024, showing a "declining volume but increasing profit" trend, with production down 1.8% to 4.145 million kiloliters, while sales revenue increased by 5.3% to 796.38 billion yuan [1][21][22] - The profit total reached 250.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with A-share listed liquor companies reporting a total revenue of 442.23 billion yuan, up 7.3% [1][22] - The CR6 companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Gujinggong) accounted for 86% of the industry's total profit, indicating a significant increase in industry concentration [1][22][27] Group 2: 2025 Market Conditions - In Q1 2025, liquor production fell by 7.2% to 1.032 million kiloliters, continuing the trend of declining production [2][40] - Listed companies showed resilience with a revenue of 153.42 billion yuan, up 1.7%, and a net profit of 64.91 billion yuan, up 2.3% [2][40] - The industry faces challenges with "declining volume and price, and rising costs," as 59.7% of companies reported reduced operating profits [2][49] Group 3: Market Environment Changes and Competitive Landscape - The revised regulations in May 2025 expanded the ban on alcohol consumption, impacting market sentiment and causing a 2-3% overall decline in the liquor sector [3] - The CR6 brands accounted for 87.6% of the revenue of the 20 A-share liquor brands in Q1 2025, indicating further concentration in the market [4] - The younger consumer demographic is emerging, with those born between 1985 and 1994 becoming a key market segment, although business and management personnel still represent 85.1% of the consumer base [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Development Suggestions - Companies are adopting pragmatic strategies, with 64.9% focusing on core products and 40.4% targeting the mass market [5] - Recommendations for industry health include optimizing capacity and focusing on high-quality development, with a shift from quantity-driven growth to quality-driven strategies [6] - Emphasis on digital marketing and technological innovation is crucial, with 34.9% of companies prioritizing instant retail channel expansion [7] Group 5: Online Sales and Consumer Behavior - Online sales in the first five months of 2025 exceeded 60 million bottles, generating over 30 billion yuan, although national brands are struggling with growth [2][53] - The average online sales revenue for A-share listed companies was 5.0% of total revenue, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [53] - Consumer behavior is shifting, with a notable decline in traditional consumption scenarios, leading to a decrease in demand during holiday periods [63][70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：飞天淡季批价稳定，重视保健品新消费机会 市场表现复盘 本周（5 月 12 日-5 月 16 日）食品饮料板块/沪深 300 涨跌幅分别+0.48%/+0.12%。具体板块来 看，本周保健品(+8.54%)、烘焙食品(+2.36%)、乳品(+1.47%)、白酒Ⅲ(+0.57%)、零食(+0.25%)、 预加工食品(+0.21%)、调味发酵品Ⅲ(-0.38%)、肉制品(-1.05%)、啤酒(-1.08%)、软饮料(-1.21%)、 其他酒类(-3.12%)。 周观点更新 白酒：贵州茅台涨幅居前，淡季茅台批价平稳。本周白酒板块+0.57%，表现强于食品饮料整体， 弱于沪深 300，板块上涨主要由龙头酒企贵州茅台（+1.44%）、山西汾酒（+0.83%）拉动。据 国家统计局，4 月食品烟酒类价格同比上涨 0.3%，环比上涨 0.2%，其中，酒类价格同比下降 2% （环比持平），去库阶段价格端小幅承压，高端酒核心单品飞天批价表现稳定。当前 （2025-05-16）申万白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 20.08X，处于近 10 年 14.68%的合理偏低水位， ...

白酒：五一宴席场景表现积极，25 年磨底阶段酒企普遍求"稳"。本周白酒板块+2.34%，表现 强于食品饮料整体及沪深 300，或主要系 Q1 季报落地板块业绩压力峰已过。本周酒企陆续召 开业绩说明会，从各酒企 25 年目标制定情况来看，理性客观、务实稳健是主旋律，多数酒企 25 年目标相对"柔性"，行业整体目标中枢预计降至个位数。此外，据微酒多地调研反馈，五 一期间受益"双春年"民俗效应，宴席场景表现积极，婚宴动销同比增长，推动库存去化，渠 道资金压力有所缓解。当前（2025-05-10）申万白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 19.97X，处于近10 年14.12% 的合理偏低水位，建议关注后续消费刺激政策出台为板块带来的估值修复机会，淡季核心高端 酒批价表现或为板块趋势变化催化剂。 啤酒&饮料：五一出行数据超预期，统一 Q1 高增，带动板块行情。本周啤酒板块涨跌幅+0.47%、 软饮料+0.07%，其中统一（+10.6%）、农夫（+6.0%）、华润饮料（+5.7%）涨幅靠前。五一出行 旅游数据景气度高，统一业绩超预期，带动饮料板块行情。据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，假 期 5 天全国国内出游人次同比+6.4%，国内 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 白酒 Q1 表现稳健，零食领衔食品增长 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 5 月第 1 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：当前内需配置价值彰显，关注财报较优且基本面势能延续的标 的，新消费继续首推零食，传统消费优选业绩见底有望向上标的。我们维持 此前强调的"在内需避风港钓鱼"观点，并强调该阶段应该重点布局行业龙 头个股；白酒板块 2025 年或为新旧周期转换年，关注基本面业绩较好或公 司改革有望见成效的龙头标的；大众品短期关注零食公司或在山姆等会员店 上架新品的投资机会，关注盐津铺子、甘源食品、有友食品，持续推荐啤酒 饮料旺季备货、零售变革大年和成本周期带来的食饮投资机会。 白酒板块：白酒板块当前仍处低位，且一季报或为全年低点，当前位置持续 推荐，优选品牌势能较强、库存更早出清、目标增速合理的酒企。当前关税 等外部不确定性加剧，以白酒为代表的内需配置价值彰显，政策及地产企稳 催化下或迎白酒结构牛市，推荐攻守兼备两条主线。重视"势能延续"、"低 基数修复"两条主线：①势能延续的确定性：高端酒推荐贵州茅台/五粮液， 次高端及区域酒推荐古井贡酒/山西汾酒/今世缘/迎驾贡酒；②低基数修 ...

[Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 投资要点： [行业Table_Industry] : 食品饮料 日期: shzqdatemark [Table_Author] 分析师: 王慧林 Tel: 15951919467 2025年03月09日 | E-mail: | wanghuilin@shzq.com | | --- | --- | | SAC 编号: | S0870524040001 | | 分析师: | 赖思琪 | | Tel: | 021-53686180 | | E-mail: | laisiqi@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870524090001 | | 分析师: | 袁家岗 | | Tel: | 02153686249 | | E-mail: | yuanjiagang@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870524090003 | [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -25% -19% -13% -8% -2% 4% 9% 15% 21% 03/24 05/24 07/24 10 ...