Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The pre-prepared food concept is driving short-term performance in the catering supply sector, with a focus on the upcoming double festival catalysis [5][16] - The overall food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.53% from September 15 to September 19, with specific segments like pre-processed foods and soft drinks showing positive performance [23][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From September 15 to September 19, the food and beverage sector declined by 2.53%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index fell by 1.30% and 0.44%, respectively [23] - Specific segment performances included: pre-processed foods (+0.32%), soft drinks (+0.07%), and health products (+0.05%), while snacks (-1.28%) and meat products (-3.64%) saw declines [23] Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector saw a decline of 2.95%, underperforming compared to the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 [14] - Key brands like Jinhuijiu and Gujinggongjiu experienced significant drops, with the overall consumption environment remaining under pressure [14] - The current PE-TTM for the liquor index is 19X, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [14] Beer Sector - The beer sector showed a slight increase of 0.03%, with brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer performing well [15] - Cumulative beer production from January to August 2025 was 26.83 million kiloliters, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [15] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, three main investment lines are recommended: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiugui Jiu, Shui Jing Fang), value recovery stocks (e.g., Yingjia Gongjiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai) [22] - In the beer sector, focus on companies with sustained growth potential and those benefiting from cost reductions [22] Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 18, 2025, with no year-on-year change [20] - The production capacity of Daizhou yellow wine increased from 18,000 tons to 130,000 tons over the past three years, with a reported output value of 263 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 14.3% year-on-year [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [2][29] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a pullback last week, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index declining by 2.53%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.23 percentage points. Consumer demand remains weak, as indicated by a 3.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods in August, totaling 39,668 billion yuan [4][29] - The white liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with the extent and duration of this adjustment dependent on improvements in consumer demand and the industry's innovation capabilities. The trend towards lower alcohol content is expected to continue, with younger consumers favoring personalized and lower-alcohol products [4][30] - The report suggests focusing on industry leaders with good growth potential and low valuations after recent pullbacks, particularly in the context of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [4][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Food and Beverage Index ranked 25th among Shenwan's primary industries, with sub-sectors like pre-processed foods, soft drinks, health products, and beer showing slight increases, while others, including white liquor, experienced declines [4][29] White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards quality enhancement, brand influence, cultural expression, and value creation. The report highlights the importance of monitoring actual sales during the upcoming festive season [4][30] - Specific companies to watch include Shunxin Agriculture, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and high-end brands like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [4][30] Consumer Goods Sector - Companies like BaiRun Co. are expanding their whiskey product lines and enhancing marketing strategies to build sales channels. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer preferences and market trends [4][31] - Angel Yeast is noted for its potential growth in overseas markets, particularly in Europe, where it aims to expand its product offerings and localize production [4][31] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that meet consumer needs for health and personal satisfaction, highlighting stocks such as Dongpeng Beverage, Yanjin, BaiRun Co., Haitian Flavoring, and Angel Yeast as potential investment opportunities [4][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [5][28]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector is experiencing a steady performance from leading brands, with a focus on valuation recovery in growth segments. The recent market liquidity has led to an increase in valuations, with the food and beverage sector rising by 3.29% last week. The report suggests paying attention to the liquor sector, which has seen significant declines, and new consumer stocks with high growth potential [5][28]. - The report indicates that the demand for liquor has been under pressure since the second quarter due to a ban on alcohol, but the marginal impact of policies is expected to gradually narrow. The report emphasizes that the liquor sector is likely to see a valuation recovery ahead of fundamental improvements [5][28]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Trends - The food and beverage index increased by 3.29% last week, ranking eleventh among all sectors. The sub-sectors with the highest gains included other liquors (+8.21%), soft drinks (+5.06%), and liquor (+3.62%). Conversely, meat products saw a decline of 1.01% [13][28]. - Notable individual stock performances included a 25.10% increase for Jiu Gui Jiu and a 13.26% rise for Bai Run Co [13][28]. Liquor Sector Insights - The report notes that liquor production from January to July 2025 totaled 2.146 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. In July alone, production was 236,000 kiloliters, down 8.9% year-on-year [24][28]. - The report recommends focusing on the following liquor stocks: She De Jiu Ye (for rebound potential), regional leaders Shanxi Fen Jiu, Guo Jing Gong Jiu, and high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao [5][28]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The consumer goods sector, driven by new retail formats and product categories, shows promising growth potential. For instance, Salted Fish Co reported a revenue of 2.941 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.58% [5][28]. - The report also highlights the performance of Miao Ke Lan Duo, which achieved a revenue of 256.72 million yuan, with a 14.85% growth in its cheese business [5][28]. Key Company Performance - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, including: - Guizhou Moutai: Expected EPS of 74.38 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.7 [30]. - Salted Fish Co: Expected EPS of 2.93 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 24.5 [30]. - Miao Ke Lan Duo: Expected EPS of 0.42 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 64.7 [30].

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "stronger than the market" [2][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.17% in the week of July 28 to August 1, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.94% [8]. - The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a PE-TTM of 20.95x, placing it in the 16th percentile over the past 15 years [15][19]. - The introduction of the "Childcare Subsidy Policy" is expected to benefit the dairy sector, particularly infant formula, by stimulating consumption among over 20 million families [31]. - The white liquor segment is showing signs of bottoming out, with high-end light bottle liquor expected to be a growth area due to its strong repurchase rate and stable profit margins [26][24]. - The soft drink sector is entering a peak season, with a projected continuation of high growth due to new product launches and a favorable market environment [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry index fell by 2.17%, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industries [8]. - The sub-sectors with the least to most decline include: meat products (-0.03%), dairy products (-0.55%), health products (-1.11%), and soft drinks (-4.28%) [10][12]. 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is in a phase of stabilization, with high-end light bottle liquor showing strong growth potential [23]. - The anticipated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan in the Yajiang hydropower project is expected to stimulate long-term consumption in the white liquor sector [24]. - Major brands are increasing dividends, with the overall dividend yield in the white liquor sector exceeding 4% [3]. 3. Dairy Products - The newly implemented childcare subsidy policy is projected to directly boost dairy product consumption, especially infant formula [31]. - Companies like Beingmate and Sunshine Dairy have seen significant stock price increases following the announcement of the subsidy [4]. 4. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry has shown strong performance, with a 3.2% year-on-year increase in production in June 2025 [32]. - The sector is expected to maintain high growth due to the introduction of new products and the ongoing peak season [33]. 5. Cost Indicators - Sugar prices remained stable, while prices for soybeans, corrugated paper, and glass saw slight increases [36].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector experienced a slight pullback, with stable prices for Feitian liquor. The white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18.06X, which is 5.23% below the reasonable low level over the past decade. Strong alpha companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended, along with beta companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Water Well [2][12] - The beer sector saw a decline, with Budweiser Asia reporting a 3.9% decrease in revenue and a 6.2% drop in sales in Q2 2025. However, there is optimism for recovery in beer sales due to upcoming consumption promotion policies and adjustments to alcohol bans [3][13] - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a pullback, with a focus on new products and performance data catalysts. Companies that can enhance efficiency and market share are highlighted as strong investment opportunities [4][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector declined by 2.17%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 1.75%. Specific declines included snacks (-3.03%) and soft drinks (-4.28%) [1][21] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector saw a 2.40% decline, with notable drops in companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Shede Liquor. Despite this, the mid-term value of the sector remains promising [2][12] - The yellow wine sector is also under observation, with companies like Gu Yue Long Shan actively repurchasing shares [12] Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer sector's decline was led by companies like Qingdao Beer and Budweiser Asia. The latter's performance was impacted by weak demand in China and Korea [3][13] - The soft drink sector also faced challenges, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Master Kong showing declines [15] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The consumer goods sector is focusing on new product launches and performance data. Companies like Qiaqia Food and Jinzai are expanding their product lines [4][20] - The dairy sector remains stable, with average milk prices at 3.03 RMB/kg, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.90% [18] Investment Recommendations - Strong alpha liquor companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended, along with consumer goods companies that focus on cost reduction and market share growth [5][20]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (expected to outperform the market index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [18] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that liquor companies are expanding into instant retail and increasing new channel development. The launch of "Moutai Sauce Fragrance·Shared by Thousands of Families" on Meituan Flash Purchase is a significant step, with Moutai's authorized stores entering this channel in bulk, which is expected to enhance downstream sales and support healthy industry development [8][14] - The report identifies three main investment lines: high-end liquor with relatively strong demand, mid-range liquor with ongoing national expansion, and real estate liquor products positioned in expanding price ranges [8] Summary by Sections Price Data Tracking - As of August 1, 2025, the wholesale price of Moutai (2022) is 2020 CNY per box, down 30 CNY from the previous week, while the price of the 2022 loose bottle remains stable at 1940 CNY per bottle [9] - The price of Wuliangye (Baijiu) is 900 CNY per bottle, unchanged from the previous week [9] Production Data Tracking - In June 2025, China's liquor production was 330,000 kiloliters, down 6.5% year-on-year; beer production was 4.12 million kiloliters, down 0.2%; soft drink production was 18.43 million kiloliters, up 3.2%; and wine production was 9000 kiloliters, down 18.2% [12] Company Announcements and Events Summary - In the first half of 2025, the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry saw a revenue of 814.69 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, but profits fell by 2.1% [14] - Qingdao Beer expects its transaction volume on Meituan Flash Purchase to exceed 1.5 billion CNY for the year, with sales up nearly 60% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [14]

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [1][3] Core Views - The food and beverage sector has shown a weekly increase of 0.74%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.67% [1][7] - The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a PE-TTM of 21.41x, placing it in the 16th percentile over the past 15 years [14][17] - The white liquor sector is experiencing a rebound driven by external economic and policy factors, particularly the Ya River hydropower project, which is expected to boost consumption [4][22] - The beer sector faced slight pressure in June, with production down by 0.2% year-on-year, but Qingdao Beer is diversifying into the water market [29][30] - The dairy sector shows a mixed performance, with production up by 4.1% in June, but prices for fresh milk are still under pressure [34][36] - The soft drink market is shifting towards health and functionality, with electrolyte drinks seeing significant sales growth [40][41] Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage sector increased by 0.74% in the week of July 21-25, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries [1][7] - The sector's performance was better from Monday to Thursday, gaining 2.44%, but saw a significant drop of 1.65% on Friday [1][7] White Liquor - Public funds have significantly reduced their allocation to white liquor, with a heavy reliance on stable pricing and dividends from leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [3][22] - The Ya River hydropower project is expected to stimulate white liquor consumption due to increased infrastructure investment [22][24] Beer - In June, beer production was 4.12 million kiloliters, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, attributed to weak dining consumption [29][30] - Qingdao Beer is expanding into the health drink market, leveraging celebrity endorsements to boost sales [30][41] Dairy Products - Dairy production in June reached 254.6 thousand tons, up 4.1% year-on-year, while the average price of fresh milk is stabilizing [34][36] Soft Drinks - The trend towards health and functionality is reshaping the soft drink market, with significant growth in electrolyte drink sales, which increased from 476 million yuan to 1.493 billion yuan year-on-year [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "stronger than the market" [2][47]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.68% in the week from July 14 to July 18, underperforming slightly compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.69% [2][6]. - The white liquor segment is expected to stabilize after a period of decline, with major brands maintaining stable prices [3][21]. - The soft drink sector is entering a peak season, with expectations of continued growth driven by new product launches [3][34]. - The snack food segment has shown mixed performance, with some companies experiencing significant profit declines due to rising costs and increased marketing expenses [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance ranked 14th among 31 sub-industries, with soft drinks leading the gains at +2.02% [2][9]. - The overall valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with a PE-TTM of 21.26x, placing it in the 16th percentile over the past 15 years [4][13]. 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry has seen collective declines in performance, but signs of stabilization are emerging [3][21]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have maintained stable pricing, with Moutai's price at 1930 RMB per bottle [21][22]. 3. Beer - Beer production in June 2025 was 4.12 million kiloliters, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, attributed to weak restaurant consumption [3][26]. 4. Dairy Products - Dairy production in June 2025 reached 254.6 thousand tons, up 4.1% year-on-year, but the industry is experiencing mixed performance among companies [3][28]. 5. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is expected to maintain high growth rates, with a production increase of 3.2% in June 2025 [3][34]. 6. Snacks - The snack food sector has shown varied results, with some companies like Ganyuan Foods reporting significant profit declines due to rising costs [3][36].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai 1935 has significantly dropped from its peak, with current market prices falling below 600 yuan per bottle, indicating a substantial decline in demand and market positioning [1][5][9]. Pricing Trends - Initially launched at a retail price of 1188 yuan per bottle, Moutai 1935 saw its price soar to 1899 yuan shortly after its release, but has since plummeted by 68.93% to around 590-681 yuan on platforms like JD.com [1][5]. - On other e-commerce platforms, prices for Moutai 1935 remain above 600 yuan, with some listings on Pinduoduo and Tmall still exceeding 700 yuan [3][5]. Sales Performance - Moutai 1935 achieved sales of 50 billion yuan in its first year (2022) and is projected to reach 110 billion yuan in 2023, with a target of 120 billion yuan in 2024. However, the growth rate is expected to decline sharply, with a projected increase of less than 10% in 2024 compared to 2023 [5][8]. Market Positioning - Moutai 1935 is positioned as a "premium tasting product" within the thousand-yuan price range, which is a critical segment in the domestic liquor market [4][5]. - The decline in Moutai 1935's price has relieved pressure on competing brands, such as Wuliangye, which has managed to maintain its market position and pricing strategy [7][8]. Industry Dynamics - The drop in Moutai 1935's price is attributed to various factors, including changes in consumer behavior and a return to rational pricing as speculative demand diminishes [9]. - Moutai's management emphasizes a collaborative approach with other liquor brands to foster healthy market development and explore differentiated growth strategies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped, indicating a downward trend in the high-end liquor market, with potential implications for other brands like Wuliangye [2][6][15]. Price Trends - On June 25, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Feitian Moutai was reported at 1830 RMB per bottle, down 85 RMB from the previous day; the price for the 24-year version was 1890 RMB, down 60 RMB [2]. - The price of 43-degree Feitian Moutai and other products has also seen a decline, with kilogram Moutai dropping nearly 5% over two days [3]. - The prices for various Moutai products have consistently decreased, with the 25-year bottle previously selling for 3800 RMB now at 2230 RMB, marking a decline of over 41% [8]. Market Reactions - E-commerce prices have also fallen, with some platforms listing 25-year Feitian Moutai at 1800 RMB per bottle [10]. - Many second-hand gift recovery businesses have paused Moutai purchases due to the significant price drop, with recovery prices now between 1700-1800 RMB [10]. Impact on Competitors - The decline in Moutai prices is expected to exert pressure on other high-end liquor brands, particularly Wuliangye, leading to potential price competition and demand shifts [15][16]. - Analysts suggest that Moutai's price drop could trigger panic selling among distributors, further affecting the sales outlook for Wuliangye and similar brands [16]. Company Actions - Moutai Group's General Manager Wang Li has been actively visiting major e-commerce platforms to stabilize online prices and maintain distributor confidence [17]. - Recent actions by Wang Li may aim to leverage partnerships for expanding Moutai's market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia [18].