白酒周度动态速递20260131（二） ③调研更新：河南开门红要求30%+。 ④26年目标：/。 #区域酒企：区域酒不强制回款，批价整体稳定 洋河股份：26年回款进度20%，库存平均2.5-3个月。 珍酒李渡：26年回款开启，库存3+个月左右。 ①本周珍30/珍15/珍10/珍5批价分别为720/305/260/110元。 ②动态更新：近期大珍联盟商已签约4000+家，回款7亿+；珍·珍酒第二阶段15个县市区停止招商，以上区域联盟 商退一进一；"大珍2021真实年份"即将上市，大珍2020真实年份年底停产，1月10日起每瓶价格上涨10元；珍酒・ 珍 白酒周度动态速递20260131（二） 珍酒李渡：26年回款开启，库存3+个月左右。 ①本周珍30/珍15/珍10/珍5批价分别为720/305/260/110元。 ②动态更新：近期大珍联盟商已签约4000+家，回款7亿+；珍·珍酒第二阶段15个县市区停止招商，以上区域联盟 商退一进一；"大珍2021真实年份"即将上市，大珍2020真实年份年底停产，1月10日起每瓶价格上涨10元；珍酒・ 珍五经典版正式上市，建议零售价208元/瓶，目前已全面登陆贵州市场。 ①本周 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The Baijiu market in 2025 is facing challenges such as declining sales and inventory buildup, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing price adjustments and increased inventory pressure [2][18] - The overall sales in the Henan region decreased by approximately 20% compared to 2024, with some manufacturers issuing reduction directives due to unfulfilled sales tasks [7][18] Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - Moutai's sales have been stable, with all goods delivered by November 2025 and a 10% increase in December. However, online platforms have reported prices as low as 1,300 RMB, below cost [4][18] - Wuliangye expects a 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by new leadership and compensation for reduced output in 2025, but faces challenges with margins and potential negative profits [2][6][20] - Fenjiu has shown relative stability in Shandong, with a planned 10% growth for 2026, although it has faced historical low prices and reliance on rebates for profits [2][10] - The Jiangsu market has seen a 25%-30% decline in high-end Baijiu demand, with increased inventory levels and reduced enthusiasm from distributors [2][18] Inventory and Pricing - Moutai's current inventory is approximately 40 days, while Wuliangye's is about 10 days, with some stores facing up to two months of inventory due to wholesale restrictions [4][18] - Fenjiu's pricing has dropped to historical lows, with some products priced at around 350 RMB, impacting distributor profits [4][10] - The overall inventory levels in the Shandong region are high, with significant pressure on brands like Water Well and Shede, which have seen declines of 10% and 15% respectively [11][12] Future Outlook - Wuliangye's growth expectations for 2026 are contingent on pricing and subsidy negotiations, with no specific plans communicated yet [8][20] - Fenjiu has adjusted its product structure, increasing high-end offerings while facing challenges in profit generation due to low prices [10][20] - The overall sentiment in the Baijiu market indicates a cautious outlook, with expectations for improvement in 2026 if economic conditions stabilize and inventory is effectively managed [23][24] Additional Important Insights - Consumer behavior has shifted towards immediate consumption rather than stockpiling, leading to stable but non-explosive sales growth [3][18] - The competitive landscape shows that while high-end brands are under pressure, some mid-tier brands like Yanghe and Jinshiyuan are also struggling with high inventory and low prices [22][23] - The overall market dynamics suggest that brands need to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions to navigate the current challenges effectively [24][46]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese liquor industry, focusing on major brands such as Yanghe, Jinshiyuan, Moutai, Wuliangye, and Gujing. - The overall performance of the liquor market during the Double Festival period shows mixed results, with some brands experiencing declines while others see slight growth. Key Points and Arguments Yanghe's Performance - Yanghe's shipment volume declined by 16.5% during the Double Festival, while Jinshiyuan's increased by 8.9% [1][4]. - The leadership change at Yanghe has led to a focus on promoting mass-market products, such as the new Hai Zhi Lan, and plans to launch products priced below 300 RMB [9]. - Yanghe's market performance is not yet at the bottom, with expectations of further declines over the next two to three years due to unstable channel conditions and difficulties in attracting new distributors [10]. Jinshiyuan's Stability - Jinshiyuan's performance is considered slightly better than its peers, with a terminal transaction price for its four-open product around 420 RMB and the two-open product around 280 to 290 RMB [13]. - Despite thin margins, Jinshiyuan maintains its market share due to fast natural sales and high brand recognition [13]. Gujing's Inventory and Pricing - Gujing has a high inventory level, with a cycle exceeding 120 days. The wholesale price for Gu 16 is approximately 300 RMB, while Gu 20 ranges from 400 to 460 RMB [18][19]. - Gujing's sales volume decreased by 3% during the Double Festival, but overall performance remained stable [21]. Market Dynamics - Moutai's shipment volume remained flat with a slight increase of about 1%, while Wuliangye saw a decline of 1.7%, and Luzhou Laojiao dropped by 13.1% [3][21]. - The online channel's development in the liquor market depends on the manufacturers' efforts, with distributors lacking pricing advantages [25]. Profitability and Pricing Strategies - Yanghe's price decline is attributed to demand issues and customer preferences, with stricter cost controls affecting price stability [7][8]. - Jinshiyuan's V3 series has a profit margin of about 15%, while the four-open series has a gross margin of around 10% [31]. Future Outlook - For Yanghe, the fourth quarter of 2025 does not have repayment requirements, and most distributors expect to complete 75% of their repayment tasks [29]. - Jinshiyuan's distributors will adjust growth targets based on market conditions, with expectations for high growth in the V3 series [29]. Additional Important Insights - The overall liquor market in Jiangsu province is performing relatively well, with Moutai and Jinshiyuan being among the few brands to show growth [22]. - The feedback from the autumn sugar meeting indicates that distributors are primarily concerned about completing their tasks and whether year-end rebates will be honored [23]. - The performance of non-standard products in the liquor market has seen significant price fluctuations, with the need for Moutai's pricing strategy to influence overall market trends [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while recommending an increase in holdings for companies like Yingjia Grape Wine and Kuaijie Wine [8][33]. Core Insights - The demand gap remains significant, with a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, despite a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - The report highlights a continued "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gaining market share at the expense of lower-tier competitors [2][8]. - The recovery of high-end liquor sales is slow, with a notable increase in demand for mid-range and low-end products, particularly in banquet settings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Feedback for the Holiday Season - Sales performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was generally flat, with a 20% decline compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - Mid-range and low-end liquor sales outperformed high-end products, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines [2][12]. 2. Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are on track, with a completion rate of approximately 75% for the year, and inventory levels are stable at 0.5-1 month [26][31]. - Wuliangye's sales completion rate is around 70%, with inventory levels between 1-2 months, and recent promotional efforts have improved dealer confidence [26][31]. - Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a completion rate of 75%-80%, with stable inventory levels and a strong market presence for its products [27][31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are showing resilience and potential for recovery, particularly those that have adjusted their strategies ahead of the market, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [32][33]. - The anticipated recovery in demand for white liquor is expected to be supported by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased profitability for companies in the sector [4][32].

Group 1 - The white liquor industry is entering a peak sales season during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with sales typically accounting for 20% to 30% of annual volume [1] - Major liquor brands, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, are launching promotional activities to boost sales during this period, with strategies such as creating a "Double Festival" brand image and enhancing consumer experiences [2] - The overall sentiment among distributors is cautious, with many focusing on inventory reduction rather than increasing stock levels, reflecting a more conservative approach to purchasing [3] Group 2 - Despite the enthusiasm from manufacturers, the price of white liquor is generally declining, with a reported decrease of 0.09% in the national white liquor price index as of early September 2023 [3] - The performance of listed liquor companies in the first half of the year shows a divergence, suggesting that the upcoming holiday sales will be a critical test for companies with strong brand power and effective management [4]

Core Viewpoint - The inventory situation in the liquor industry has shifted from being a source of profit to a burden for distributors due to declining terminal prices and rising storage costs [1][2]. Inventory Trends - 90% of liquor companies are experiencing an increase in inventory, with companies like Gujinggongjiu showing over 20% year-on-year growth [2]. - As of the end of 2024, 18 out of 20 listed liquor companies reported a year-on-year increase in inventory, with Gujinggongjiu's inventory growing by 25.27% [2]. - The inventory of semi-finished products (including base liquor) at Gujinggongjiu rose from 234,300 tons in 2023 to 293,500 tons in 2024 [2]. Inventory Pressure Transmission - High inventory risks are shifting from the market to upstream enterprises due to weak demand and reduced sales [3]. - The inventory turnover rates and other indicators for liquor companies are deteriorating, indicating a broader industry issue [3]. Inventory Proportions - Over 40% of inventory proportion is reported in several companies, with 13 out of 20 companies showing a year-on-year increase in inventory proportion by the end of 2024 [4]. - By the first quarter of 2025, 17 out of 20 companies continued to show an increase in inventory proportion, with companies like Kuozi Jiao and Shede Jiuye exceeding 40% [4]. - Head companies like Moutai maintain lower inventory proportions, generally below 20% [4]. Market Dynamics - The social attributes of Chinese liquor remain unchanged, particularly for high-end products, which still have strong demand in social settings [5]. - The disparity in inventory levels is influenced by the product structure and development stage of each company [5]. Channel and Inventory Interaction - The differentiation in inventory levels is also reflected in the channel dynamics, with leading companies having established robust sales networks, while smaller companies struggle with market penetration [6]. Base Liquor Inventory Growth - Among the 20 liquor companies, 12 reported an upward trend in inventory goods, with all 16 companies reporting an increase in semi-finished product inventory [7]. - Companies like Jiugui Jiu reported that their inventory accounted for over 34% of total assets, with base liquor making up 67.75% of their inventory value [7]. Production Expansion Amidst Overcapacity - Many liquor companies are still expanding production despite the recognized overcapacity in the industry [8]. - Companies like Shede Jiuye and Jiugui Jiu have low capacity utilization rates, yet continue to expand production [8]. Price Control Strategies - In response to overcapacity and market adjustments, many liquor companies are adopting "volume control to support prices" strategies [9]. - The pricing mechanism is influenced by supply-demand relationships, with companies actively reducing inventory pressure to maintain price differentials [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, despite achieving significant revenue and profit figures for 2024 [1][2][3] - In 2024, 21 listed baijiu companies reported a total revenue of 443.97 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 168.08 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.92% and a net profit increase of 7.01% [1][2] - The number of companies experiencing revenue and net profit declines has increased, with 6 companies reporting revenue drops and 8 companies reporting net profit declines in 2024, compared to 2 and 3 respectively in 2023 [1][2] Group 2 - The "billion club" companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, contributed significantly to the overall performance, achieving a combined revenue of 379.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 155.99 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The growth rates for these leading companies have also slowed, with revenue growth at 8.69% and net profit growth at 8.90% in 2024, compared to double-digit growth rates from 2021 to 2023 [2] - Inventory pressure is a significant concern for baijiu companies, with many focusing on destocking as a primary task in the first half of 2025 [2][3] Group 3 - The high inventory levels in the market have led companies to intentionally slow down the release of products to alleviate channel pressure, resulting in increased stockpiles [3] - The Chinese liquor industry faces challenges due to insufficient social purchasing power, with many distributors struggling to clear their inventory [3] - Expanding into international markets is seen as a potential growth avenue for baijiu companies, with the China Alcoholic Drinks Association emphasizing the importance of international market expansion for industry transformation [3][4] Group 4 - The transition from focusing on domestic markets to exploring international markets presents challenges, particularly in integrating traditional Chinese liquor culture with local consumer preferences abroad [4] - Strategies such as pairing liquor with Chinese cuisine and leveraging e-commerce platforms are suggested as innovative approaches for international expansion [4] - The current wave of internationalization for baijiu companies is characterized by a more systematic approach, including global brand promotion and quality education [5]