白酒行业迎来中秋、国庆"双节"旺季。《证券日报》记者近日走访北京多家烟酒专卖店、商超等终端了 解到，不少白酒品牌已开启节日促销。 中秋、国庆期间的白酒销量通常要占到酒厂全年销量的20%甚至30%。为抢抓这一黄金窗口期，进入9 月份，酒厂纷纷展开"双节"动销活动。但相对于酒厂高涨的促销热情，下游酒商们的备货意愿却偏向谨 慎。 "今年中秋经销商渠道都在想尽办法去库存，进货意愿比较低。"一位常年代理白酒销售的经销商向《证 券日报》记者直言。 欧阳千里对记者表示，终端多数分销商被称为批发商，并不具备品牌白酒的代理资格，再加上行情不 稳，他们寄希望于收到订单，再向上游经销商进货，而非提前备货。 事实上，整体来看，白酒的价格仍呈下行态势。据泸州·中国白酒商品批发价格指数办公室发布的数据 显示，2023年9月上旬，全国白酒环比价格总指数为99.91，下跌0.09%。从分类指数看，名酒环比价格 指数为99.91，下跌0.09%；地方酒环比价格指数为99.86，下跌0.14%；基酒环比价格指数为100.00，保 持稳定。 酒厂备战"双节" "中秋、国庆加上春节，合计销量基本能占到一年的60%至70%。"一家位于贵州的酒厂相关负 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inventory situation in the liquor industry has shifted from being a source of profit to a burden for distributors due to declining terminal prices and rising storage costs [1][2]. Inventory Trends - 90% of liquor companies are experiencing an increase in inventory, with companies like Gujinggongjiu showing over 20% year-on-year growth [2]. - As of the end of 2024, 18 out of 20 listed liquor companies reported a year-on-year increase in inventory, with Gujinggongjiu's inventory growing by 25.27% [2]. - The inventory of semi-finished products (including base liquor) at Gujinggongjiu rose from 234,300 tons in 2023 to 293,500 tons in 2024 [2]. Inventory Pressure Transmission - High inventory risks are shifting from the market to upstream enterprises due to weak demand and reduced sales [3]. - The inventory turnover rates and other indicators for liquor companies are deteriorating, indicating a broader industry issue [3]. Inventory Proportions - Over 40% of inventory proportion is reported in several companies, with 13 out of 20 companies showing a year-on-year increase in inventory proportion by the end of 2024 [4]. - By the first quarter of 2025, 17 out of 20 companies continued to show an increase in inventory proportion, with companies like Kuozi Jiao and Shede Jiuye exceeding 40% [4]. - Head companies like Moutai maintain lower inventory proportions, generally below 20% [4]. Market Dynamics - The social attributes of Chinese liquor remain unchanged, particularly for high-end products, which still have strong demand in social settings [5]. - The disparity in inventory levels is influenced by the product structure and development stage of each company [5]. Channel and Inventory Interaction - The differentiation in inventory levels is also reflected in the channel dynamics, with leading companies having established robust sales networks, while smaller companies struggle with market penetration [6]. Base Liquor Inventory Growth - Among the 20 liquor companies, 12 reported an upward trend in inventory goods, with all 16 companies reporting an increase in semi-finished product inventory [7]. - Companies like Jiugui Jiu reported that their inventory accounted for over 34% of total assets, with base liquor making up 67.75% of their inventory value [7]. Production Expansion Amidst Overcapacity - Many liquor companies are still expanding production despite the recognized overcapacity in the industry [8]. - Companies like Shede Jiuye and Jiugui Jiu have low capacity utilization rates, yet continue to expand production [8]. Price Control Strategies - In response to overcapacity and market adjustments, many liquor companies are adopting "volume control to support prices" strategies [9]. - The pricing mechanism is influenced by supply-demand relationships, with companies actively reducing inventory pressure to maintain price differentials [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, despite achieving significant revenue and profit figures for 2024 [1][2][3] - In 2024, 21 listed baijiu companies reported a total revenue of 443.97 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 168.08 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.92% and a net profit increase of 7.01% [1][2] - The number of companies experiencing revenue and net profit declines has increased, with 6 companies reporting revenue drops and 8 companies reporting net profit declines in 2024, compared to 2 and 3 respectively in 2023 [1][2] Group 2 - The "billion club" companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, contributed significantly to the overall performance, achieving a combined revenue of 379.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 155.99 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The growth rates for these leading companies have also slowed, with revenue growth at 8.69% and net profit growth at 8.90% in 2024, compared to double-digit growth rates from 2021 to 2023 [2] - Inventory pressure is a significant concern for baijiu companies, with many focusing on destocking as a primary task in the first half of 2025 [2][3] Group 3 - The high inventory levels in the market have led companies to intentionally slow down the release of products to alleviate channel pressure, resulting in increased stockpiles [3] - The Chinese liquor industry faces challenges due to insufficient social purchasing power, with many distributors struggling to clear their inventory [3] - Expanding into international markets is seen as a potential growth avenue for baijiu companies, with the China Alcoholic Drinks Association emphasizing the importance of international market expansion for industry transformation [3][4] Group 4 - The transition from focusing on domestic markets to exploring international markets presents challenges, particularly in integrating traditional Chinese liquor culture with local consumer preferences abroad [4] - Strategies such as pairing liquor with Chinese cuisine and leveraging e-commerce platforms are suggested as innovative approaches for international expansion [4] - The current wave of internationalization for baijiu companies is characterized by a more systematic approach, including global brand promotion and quality education [5]