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关于贵州茅台的投资价值,段永平用AI算了笔账!白酒板块后续机会如何?
天天基金网· 2025-09-29 02:15
牛市来了还没上车?上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包,优选基金10元起投!限量发放!先到先得! 近期,贵州茅台股价震荡下行,过去11个交易日有10日下跌,"茅王"后续如何备受关注。 如何看贵州茅台的投资价值,段永平频频发声,还让AI算了下账。 段永平"算账" 近日,有网友向段永平提问,如何通过DCF模型,算出企业投资价值。段永平表示,这是个思维模式,但真要算是不靠谱的,因为变量太多,假设太多。这也是为什么商业 模式和企业文化很重要的原因。 不过,段永平表示,可以利用DCF模型算算贵州茅台的投资价值,因为贵州茅台的变量相对少一些,应该好算很多。 随后,段永平晒出图片,他表示用比较保守的想法让AI算了下。 在段永平看来,应该按自己的机会成本算。大部分人的机会成本其实就是银行利息或者是国债,生意人和投资人会不一样。 此后,段永平又强调,DCF估值模型对不懂的企业不能用,对懂的企业(商业模式、企业文化好的企业)不需要用。精确的错误往往就是来自于这种"公式"。 事实上,近期段永平多次提及贵州茅台。今年1月,段永平发帖表示:"今天买了腾讯,也买了茅台。"3月,段永平透露:"我们买茅台主要用的是人民币。"6月 ...
食品饮料行业周报:周观点:白酒底部建议乐观,大众品关注强α-20250817
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 10:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights optimism for the liquor sector, particularly for premium brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, and suggests focusing on three main lines: leading brands, high-certainty regional wines, and elastic stocks benefiting from recovery [1][2]. - In the beverage segment, companies like Master Kong and Angel Yeast are noted for their strong profit growth, while Chongqing Beer shows stable volume but slight price declines [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative product strategies and market positioning for companies to capture emerging market opportunities [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's H1 2025 revenue reached 91.094 billion yuan, up 9.16% year-on-year, with a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [2]. - The introduction of new products, such as the competitively priced "Dazhen" by Zhenjiu Li Du, is expected to drive sales growth and improve the company's fundamentals [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Chongqing Beer reported H1 2025 revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, down 12.7% [3]. - Master Kong's H1 2025 revenue was 40.09 billion yuan, down 2.7%, but net profit increased by 20.5% [3][8]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential and those benefiting from policy improvements or recovery [1][3]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies high-growth companies such as Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer as key players to watch in the beer segment [3]. - In the snack sector, companies like Wei Long and Sanhua are highlighted for their impressive revenue growth, with Wei Long's H1 2025 revenue increasing by 18.5% to 3.48 billion yuan [8].