牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 近期，贵州茅台股价震荡下行，过去11个交易日有10日下跌，"茅王"后续如何备受关注。 如何看贵州茅台的投资价值，段永平频频发声，还让AI算了下账。 段永平"算账" 近日，有网友向段永平提问，如何通过DCF模型，算出企业投资价值。段永平表示，这是个思维模式，但真要算是不靠谱的，因为变量太多，假设太多。这也是为什么商业 模式和企业文化很重要的原因。 不过，段永平表示，可以利用DCF模型算算贵州茅台的投资价值，因为贵州茅台的变量相对少一些，应该好算很多。 随后，段永平晒出图片，他表示用比较保守的想法让AI算了下。 在段永平看来，应该按自己的机会成本算。大部分人的机会成本其实就是银行利息或者是国债，生意人和投资人会不一样。 此后，段永平又强调，DCF估值模型对不懂的企业不能用，对懂的企业（商业模式、企业文化好的企业）不需要用。精确的错误往往就是来自于这种"公式"。 事实上，近期段永平多次提及贵州茅台。今年1月，段永平发帖表示："今天买了腾讯，也买了茅台。"3月，段永平透露："我们买茅台主要用的是人民币。"6月 ...

近期，贵州茅台股价震荡下行，过去11个交易日有10日下跌，"茅王"后续如何备受关注。 如何看贵州茅台的投资价值，段永平频频发声，还让AI算了下账。 段永平"算账" 近日，有网友向段永平提问，如何通过DCF模型，算出企业投资价值。段永平表示，这是个思维模式，但真要算是不靠谱的，因为变量太多，假设太多。 这也是为什么商业模式和企业文化很重要的原因。 不过，段永平表示，可以利用DCF模型算算贵州茅台的投资价值，因为贵州茅台的变量相对少一些，应该好算很多。 随后，段永平晒出图片，他表示用比较保守的想法让AI算了下。 有网友以10%的折现率计算，最终得出结论：茅台当前市值（1.80万亿元）与DCF模型推算的内在价值（1.77万亿元）高度匹配，表明市场已合理定价其 长期价值。 段永平对此并不认同："折现率10%？！你先看看银行利息和国债的利息吧！假设你有钱的话，你会愿意把钱存银行不到2%的利息而觉得茅台应该是10% 的折现率吗？这里最关键是茅台最后到底能赚多少钱，而你的钱存银行最后取出来到底是多少钱。假设你存20年的话，你会很容易算的。" 不过，贵州茅台近期股价则持续下行。9月12日以来，跌幅近6%。 资金涌入酒主题ET ...

Group 1 - The global stock market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by optimism in global trade and AI, but the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions pose a risk to this rally [1][2] - The MSCI All-Country World Index has seen four consecutive months of gains, fueled by positive developments in trade negotiations and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The "YOLO" investment group is heavily betting on AI-related stocks like Nvidia and TSMC, reflecting a strong belief in the ongoing AI trend [2] Group 2 - Concerns about future monetary policy and trade policies remain, with a recent trade agreement between the US and EU increasing uncertainty in global economic policies [3] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has recently dropped to its lowest levels of the year, indicating a lack of concern among investors despite rising uncertainty [3] - HSBC's strategist suggests that a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could trigger a significant market correction, although current market positions are not extreme enough to cause a major downturn [6] Group 3 - The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at historical highs, which could negatively impact the valuation of risk assets, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies [9] - If upcoming US economic data is strong, it may reshape expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially cooling the stock market [10] - The AI sector is seen as a major catalyst for continued market growth, with strong earnings reports from major tech companies like Google indicating robust demand for AI capabilities [13][14] Group 4 - The investment wave in AI infrastructure is expected to reach $2 trillion, with Nvidia's AI chips being compared to "gold and oil" in terms of their market significance [14] - There are signs of speculative bubbles in high-risk stocks, particularly among unprofitable companies, which could lead to increased market volatility in the second half of the year [15] - The ongoing demand for AI-driven performance growth is crucial for justifying high price-to-earnings ratios in the stock market, especially in the US [15]

Core Viewpoint - Traders in the U.S. Treasury market are heavily betting on a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, as indicated by Chairman Powell's dovish signals in Congress [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Expectations and Movements - Significant options betting has occurred, with at least $38 million in premiums paid for call options on 10-year Treasury bonds, targeting a drop in yields to 4% or below [1][4] - The market is pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut this year, with expectations for two cuts in September and December [5][22] - The 10-year Treasury yield has recently dipped below 4.3%, marking its lowest level since early May [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Influences - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell by 5.4 points to 93, below economists' expectations, contributing to the dovish sentiment in the market [6] - The decline in consumer confidence reflects a significant drop in expectations for future business conditions, indicating potential economic weakness [6] Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - There has been a notable increase in open interest for August call options on the 10-year Treasury, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards a yield drop [9][10] - The skew in Treasury options has shifted towards a bullish stance, with traders paying higher premiums to hedge against falling yields [19] Group 4: Broader Market Implications - A decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4% could alleviate pressure on risk assets, particularly benefiting technology stocks and other high-growth sectors [24][25] - The current yield levels are critical as they serve as a key input in valuation models for equities, influencing the overall market sentiment [25]

Group 1 - The latest military confrontation between Israel and Iran is expected to exert continued selling pressure on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, contrary to some investors' expectations of a flight to safety driving yields down [1][5] - Since the escalation of tensions into direct military conflict, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by over 10 basis points, driven by soaring international oil prices and concerns over inflation [1][5] - Historical data indicates that previous confrontations between Israel and Iran have led to a rapid increase in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which remained elevated for 30 days following such events [4][1] Group 2 - The current geopolitical situation is increasing the long-term risks faced by U.S. Treasury bond investors, who are already contending with rising inflation concerns and expanding U.S. debt issues [1][5] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is steepening, with the 2-year yield rising by 8 basis points since last Thursday, while shorter-term yields are on a downward trajectory [5][6] - The concept of "term premium," which compensates investors for holding long-term bonds, is expected to rise, potentially pushing 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to levels even higher than the over 5% seen in 2023 [6][5]

维持"持有"评级和目标价（港股29 港元、A 股人民币40 元）：我们将2025E/2026E/2027E 净亏损预测轻 微调整+0.6%/+1.0%/-1.9%,主要由于轻微上调收入预测和微调毛利率预测所致。基于我们的DCF 估值模 型，（WACC：10%，永续增长率：3%），维持公司"持有"评级和目标价29 港元（港股）和人民币40 元（A 股）。我们认为目前公司处于合理估值区间，若后续泰它西普成功实现出海，则公司股票有望迎 来上调机会。 1Q25 费用管控和净亏损均符合预期：1Q25 研发费用为3.29 亿元（-0.7%YoY, -14.9% QoQ）。此前公司 在年报业绩会上提及全年研发费用将控制在13 亿元以下，目前一季度研发费用已占据该指引的25%。 销售费用为2.51 亿元（+33.7% YoY, -23.1% QoQ），销售费用率为47.7%，符合公司全年销售费用率低 于50%的指引。管理费用为9 千万元（+21.4% YoY, -7.1%QoQ），管理费用率进一步降低至 17.1%（1Q24: 22.5%, 4Q24: 19.5%）。 得益于上述费用管控得当，1Q25 归母净亏损为2.54 ...