第三，产业链利润向下游共享。数据显示，目前白酒经销商的平均毛利已从2019年的20%～23%降至 2024年的15%～17%左右，而平均净利润已经从2019年的8%降至3%～5%左右。李迅雷认为，面对利润 的变化和酒企面临的价格倒挂等压力，酒企可以开发新的产品、品类，让价格更接近市场、接近年轻 人。 原标题：中泰国际李迅雷：本轮白酒收缩和房地产下行强相关；白酒主力消费人群已减少2800万 每日经济新闻消息，10月28日，在由新华社中国经济信息社与中国茅台共同主办的"天地位育"2025赤水 河论坛上，各大酒企、产业专家齐聚一堂，共话中国白酒未来发展。中泰金融国际有限公司首席经济学 家李迅雷认为，本轮白酒的收缩和经济正处在房地产下行周期有很大相关性，也受到人口老龄化的影 响。李迅雷还在谈及中国酒业未来发展趋势时，给出了三个大趋势。 首先，是量增到质增的改变。在他看来，当前中国白酒行业仍处于去库存调整阶段，酒企根据实际情况 灵活制定经营策略，整体来看多数酒企的战略基调凸显"稳字当头、质效为先"的务实导向。"目前白酒 产业处于'优质产能稀缺，整体产能过剩'的阶段，通过深耕产品品质、创新消费场景、挖掘文化内涵， 让产业 ...

10月28日，在由新华社中国经济信息社与中国茅台共同主办的"天地位育"2025赤水河论坛上，各大酒企、产业专家齐聚一堂，共话中国白酒未来发展。中泰 金融国际有限公司首席经济学家李迅雷认为，本轮白酒的收缩和经济正处在房地产下行周期有很大相关性，也受到人口老龄化的影响。李迅雷还在谈及中国 酒业未来发展趋势时，给出了三个大趋势。 首先，是量增到质增的改变。在他看来，当下目前中国白酒行业仍处于去库存调整阶段，酒企根据实际情况灵活制定经营策略，整体来看多数酒企的战略基 调凸显"稳字当头、质效为先"的务实导向。"目前白酒产业处于'优质产能稀缺，整体产能过剩'的阶段，通过深耕产品品质、创新消费场景、挖掘文化内涵， 让产业增长从'量的积累'迈向'质的跃升'，这既是应对市场变化的必然选择，也是白酒行业实现高质量发展的关键转折。" 第三，产业链利润向下游共享。数据显示，目前白酒经销商的平均毛利已从2019年的20%～23%降至2024年的15%～17%左右，而平均净利润已经从2019年 的8%降至3%～5%左右。李迅雷认为，面对利润的变化和酒企面临的价格倒挂等压力，酒企可以开发新的产品、品类，让价格更接近市场、接近年轻人。 其次 ...

其次，行业重心由酒厂向消费者进行转变。李迅雷指出，近年来，白酒的主力消费人群减少了2800万。 所谓的主力消费人群就是30岁到55岁，这个人群是减少了2800万，可能接下来人口老龄化加速，这方面 可能还会再进一步减少。面对消费群体的变化，以及消费新趋势，酒企要构建以消费者为核心的营销模 式，通过举办各类消费者互动活动，让消费者感受到酿造工艺与品牌文化内涵，增强消费者对于品牌的 认同感与忠诚度，实现由渠道驱动到消费者驱动的营销模式转变。 第三，产业链利润向下游共享。数据显示，目前白酒经销商的平均毛利已从2019年的20%～23%降至 2024年的15%～17%左右，而平均净利润已经从2019年的8%降至3%～5%左右。李迅雷认为，面对利润 的变化和酒企面临的价格倒挂等压力，酒企可以开发新的产品、品类，让价格更接近市场、接近年轻 人。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 10月28日，在由新华社中国经济信息社与中国茅台共同主办的"天地位育"2025赤水河论坛上，各大酒 企、产业专家齐聚一堂，共话中国白酒未来发展。中泰金融国际有限公司首席经济学家李迅雷认为，本 轮白酒的收缩和经济正处在房地产下行周期有很大相关性，也受到人口 ...

Group 1 - The core discussion focused on the development trends in the liquor industry, operational practices of both companies, and future directions for growth [3][4] - Both companies acknowledged that the liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment period, with structural changes in consumer markets posing new challenges to traditional sales models [3] - There is a shift in liquor consumption scenarios from single banquet occasions to diversified experiences such as leisure socializing and cultural experiences, necessitating continuous exploration in product innovation, channel optimization, and brand building [3][4] Group 2 - The importance of maintaining quality while accurately grasping market trends and establishing emotional resonance with consumers was emphasized [3] - Innovations in consumption scenarios and cultural value dissemination should reflect brand prestige while being close to everyday life, achieving an organic unity between brand tone and market demand [3] - Future collaboration will focus on deepening mutual learning and exploring new paths for high-quality development through experience sharing and innovative thinking [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jian Nan Chun demonstrates its industry leadership and strategic foresight through significant advancements in various key areas, particularly in production capacity and cultural initiatives [1] Group 1: Production and Investment - Jian Nan Chun has launched the second phase of the Datang National Liquor Ecological Park, with an investment of 1.667 billion yuan, enhancing its production capabilities [1] - The new facility is expected to increase annual production capacity by 30,000 to 50,000 tons of high-quality liquor and add 25,000 tons of storage capacity, generating an estimated additional output value of over 10 billion yuan and creating 3,000 jobs [1] - The expansion is strategically positioned to support upstream industry development and facilitate downstream product research and market expansion, reinforcing its market position amid high inventory levels in the current liquor industry [1] Group 2: Cultural Initiatives - The "Jian Nan Chun in the Classics - 2025 Jian Nan Chun Brand Night" event is scheduled for June 18, 2025, aimed at injecting cultural momentum into the liquor industry [1] - Jian Nan Chun is actively engaging in discussions on the innovation and inheritance of intangible cultural heritage brewing techniques, with its techniques recognized in the national list since 2008 [1] - The company has established a "Five Treasures and One Pattern" brewing system and is implementing a "Old Cellar Micro-Ecological Digital Protection" project to blend modern technology with traditional craftsmanship [1] Group 3: Internationalization Efforts - Jian Nan Chun is hosting the 2025 International Spirits Judges Annual Meeting, which aims to cultivate international judges and promote the internationalization of industry talent, enhancing China's voice in the global liquor market [1] - The company has previously laid the groundwork for international expansion through cross-industry collaborations, indicating a commitment to enhancing its global influence [1] - Recent initiatives reflect a coordinated effort in production capacity, cultural promotion, and international outreach to drive high-quality development in the liquor industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The top six listed liquor companies in China are transitioning to a low-speed growth model, reflecting a structural change in the industry due to external economic pressures, market transformation, and inventory adjustments [1][3][4] Industry Performance - In Q1 2023, the total revenue of large-scale liquor enterprises in China was 196.3 billion, a slight increase of 0.38% year-on-year, while total profit decreased by 0.73% [3] - The production of liquor in China from January to April 2025 was 1.308 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, indicating a potential eighth consecutive year of declining production if the trend continues [1] Strategic Adjustments - Major liquor companies are adopting more pragmatic and quality-focused growth strategies, with Moutai setting a revenue growth target of around 9% for 2023 [4][6] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao emphasize stability and gradual progress in their development goals, reflecting a shift from rapid growth to high-quality development [4][6] Market and Channel Strategies - Companies are focusing on enhancing channel operation efficiency and quality, with Yanghe implementing product optimization and inventory control measures [8][10] - Luzhou Laojiao is adjusting sales targets and market policies based on consumer behavior, while Gujing Gongjiu is optimizing resource allocation for better effectiveness [10] Product Innovation - The industry is seeing a trend towards low-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao's 38-degree Guojiao 1573 achieving over 10 billion in revenue [18][20] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of around 30% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a promising opportunity for smaller enterprises [20][21] Youth Engagement - The liquor industry recognizes the importance of engaging younger consumers, with companies like Wuliangye and Fenjiu launching targeted products and marketing strategies to attract this demographic [14][16] - The younger consumer segment (ages 25-40) accounted for 38% of liquor consumers in the first half of 2023, highlighting the need for brands to adapt to changing preferences [14] Conclusion - The liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from rapid expansion to a focus on value creation and quality development, with both large and small enterprises needing to adapt to these changes to thrive in the evolving market landscape [21]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Moutai Group and Wuliangye Group emphasizes the need for collaboration and resilience in response to the cyclical adjustments in the liquor industry, aiming for high-quality development in the sector [1]. Group 1 - Moutai Group's leadership visited Wuliangye Group for discussions on industry challenges [1] - Both companies agreed on the importance of unity and cooperation to navigate the current cyclical adjustments in the liquor industry [1] - Future plans include establishing a regular communication and cooperation mechanism to enhance collaboration at higher levels and broader scopes [1]