上海北外滩贵州茅台快闪店 ◎记者 郭成林 高志刚 你见过白酒的"盲盒"吗？ 上海证券报记者注意到，近日，舍得酒业的电商平台旗舰店和社交媒体主页上频现俏皮亮色：公司推出 名为"马上有舍得"的系列小酒盲盒，作为旗下首款明确将年轻人作为主要目标消费群体的酒款。 舍得酒业并非中国白酒试水"年轻化"的孤例。 近年来，一批白酒企业在产品研发、市场营销、品牌传播等方面进行了各种创新探索。随着新生代逐渐 成为消费主力，行业亦正经历一场全方位的深刻重塑。 "低度化是迎合新生代对微醺感觉的重要方向和手段。"中国食品产业分析师朱丹蓬在接受上海证券报记 者采访时分析，老一代酒桌文化的核心更多是"悦人"，而新生代已转向"悦己"，这背后的消费逻辑已发 生根本变化。 中国酒业协会数据显示，2025年低度酒市场规模将突破740亿元，年复合增长率达25%，这一增速远超 白酒行业整体水平。 酒企掀起"降度潮" 中国酒业协会报告显示，白酒主力消费群体正在进行代际更迭：1985年至1994年出生人群已成为新主 力，占比达34%；1995年后出生的成年群体占比达18%，年轻消费力量持续崛起。 基于对消费趋势的敏锐洞察，今年以来，多家白酒企业加速布局低 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "low-degree competition" as several companies, including Wuliangye and Gujinggongjiu, have launched low-degree liquor products to attract younger consumers and adapt to changing market dynamics [1][5]. Industry Trends - Since late August, multiple liquor companies have introduced low-degree white liquor, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and market strategies [1]. - The overall number of large-scale liquor enterprises in China has decreased, with 887 companies reported in mid-2025, down over 100 from the previous year [4]. - The production of white liquor has declined by 5.8% year-on-year, with sales revenue slightly increasing by 0.19% to 330.42 billion yuan, while profits fell by 10.93% to 87.69 billion yuan [4]. Market Response - Retailers have been cautious about stocking new low-degree products, with many still focusing on high-degree liquor, which dominates the market [2][3]. - The current market for low-degree liquor is primarily driven by local brands, with only a small percentage of low-degree options available in stores [2][3]. Consumer Insights - The primary consumer base for liquor remains middle-aged and older individuals, with younger consumers showing a preference for purchasing low-degree liquor through online channels or convenience stores [3]. - A survey indicated that only 19% of young consumers prefer white liquor, while 52% favor beer and 29% prefer foreign or fruit wines [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Major liquor companies are launching low-degree products as a strategy to engage younger consumers and expand into casual drinking scenarios [5]. - Companies like Gujinggongjiu and Wuliangye have recently introduced new low-degree products, indicating a competitive push in this segment [5]. Challenges - The definition of low-degree liquor varies, complicating market positioning and consumer understanding [6]. - The industry faces challenges in establishing consumption habits and market recognition for low-degree liquor, as traditional consumption scenarios remain dominated by high-degree products [7].

Group 1: Market Trends and Product Strategy - The company views low-alcohol products as a future trend in the industry, responding to the younger consumer group's preference for personalized and lower-alcohol beverages. The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has become a billion-level product due to its quality and taste [2][3] - The new version of Luzhou Laojiao Erqu is positioned as a key part of the company's large bottle product matrix, targeting a broad consumer base with a focus on quality and comfort [2][3] - The company is exploring new consumption scenarios, including ice drinks and mixed beverages, to adapt to changing consumer demands [2][3] Group 2: Brand Development and Marketing - The company leverages cultural advantages and has created a series of cultural IPs, such as the International Poetry and Wine Culture Conference, to enhance brand image [3][4] - Partnerships with major sports events, including the FIFA World Cup and the Australian Open, have been established to further integrate the brand into cultural activities [3][4] - The company is committed to a national expansion strategy, focusing on deep market cultivation and the implementation of the "Hundred Cities Plan" [6][4] Group 3: Financial Health and Performance - The company has approximately 8 billion in interest-bearing debt and aims to optimize its capital structure while maintaining a healthy financial position [4][5] - The current adjustment in the Chinese liquor industry is characterized by a "reduction in volume and increase in quality," prompting the company to focus on high-quality development and sustainable growth [4][5] - The company has established a dividend return plan for 2024-2026, ensuring shareholder returns are aligned with company performance [4][5] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Responses - The company acknowledges the ongoing deep adjustment in the liquor industry, emphasizing the need for innovation and adaptation to changing consumer preferences [4][5] - In response to recent price reductions in high-end liquor, the company has implemented a multi-price strategy to maintain balance between volume and price [6][4] - The company believes that the younger generation's appreciation for traditional culture is increasing, which bodes well for the future of Chinese liquor [6][4]

Core Insights - The liquor industry is facing overall growth slowdown and consumer market recovery, with traditional brands encountering dual challenges from the market and consumers [1] - Luzhou Laojiao has demonstrated strong risk resistance by adjusting its strategy, achieving revenue of 16.454 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.663 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - The company's core breakthrough lies in the deep promotion of low-alcohol and youth-oriented strategies, with the 38-degree Guojiao 1573 becoming the first low-alcohol liquor product to reach a revenue of 10 billion yuan [1] Group 1 - Mid-to-high-end liquor products have become the main revenue driver for Luzhou Laojiao, with revenue reaching 15.048 billion yuan, accounting for over 91% of total revenue [3] - The Guojiao brand has achieved comprehensive coverage in the domestic market and is accelerating its expansion into overseas markets [3] - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 continues to grow despite intensified competition, benefiting from the company's early layout in the low-alcohol segment [3] Group 2 - Changes in consumer demographics are key to driving strategic transformation, with new consumers showing significantly different demands compared to traditional customers [4] - Luzhou Laojiao actively targets younger consumers by lowering drinking thresholds through low-alcohol products and expanding consumption scenarios [4] - The success of the 38-degree Guojiao 1573 highlights the effectiveness of the company's "dual-wheel drive" strategy, consolidating traditional market advantages while opening up new consumer spaces [4] Group 3 - The implementation of the youth-oriented strategy has extended from brand marketing to cultivating consumption habits, with low-alcohol liquor becoming an entry point for young people [4] - Luzhou Laojiao collaborates across fashion and art sectors to break brand stereotypes and enhance emotional connections with younger demographics through creative social media interactions [4] - The company's transformation practices serve as a model for the industry, with the "youth-oriented" trend identified as a core development direction in the liquor industry [4] Group 4 - Technological innovation will continue to drive the development of low-alcohol products, with Luzhou Laojiao planning to increase R&D investment to enhance product quality stability [5] - The evolution from brand marketing to consumer habit cultivation reflects a shift in the company's operational thinking, maintaining competitive advantages amid industry fluctuations [5] - This strategic adjustment provides a replicable path for traditional brands to transform [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in the face of a new round of deep adjustments in the liquor industry, companies must focus on internal capabilities to navigate through cycles successfully [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Luzhou Laojiao's 2025 semi-annual report shows robust performance with revenue of 1.6454 billion and net profit of 766.3 million, maintaining a high gross margin of 87.1% [2][4]. - The company's high-end products, particularly the Guojiao 1573, have remained resilient against market fluctuations, contributing significantly to revenue and maintaining a leading position in the high-end liquor segment [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Innovations - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on high-end product development while also exploring low-alcohol options, which is seen as a way to seek new growth avenues in the industry [4][9]. - The introduction of the 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has been a significant success, showcasing the company's ability to innovate while maintaining quality, with plans for even lower alcohol products in the future [9][10]. Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The company is adapting to changing consumer trends, particularly among the younger generation, by creating lighter, more drinkable products and expanding consumption scenarios [11][15]. - Luzhou Laojiao's "Ice JOYS" summer marketing campaign has successfully positioned Guojiao 1573 as a preferred choice in summer drinking scenarios, enhancing brand visibility among younger consumers [13][15]. Group 4: Digital Transformation and International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing digital transformation, with significant revenue growth in new channel operations, driven by a comprehensive data tracking system [17][18]. - Luzhou Laojiao is also focusing on international markets, leveraging its low-alcohol products to appeal to global consumers, thereby expanding its market presence [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Wuliangye has raised concerns among investors due to a lack of dividends and a significant decline in net profit, leading to a 2.4% drop in stock price on the day of the announcement [1][4]. Financial Performance - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.19% and 2.28% respectively [3]. - However, the second quarter showed a revenue of 15.831 billion yuan with a negligible growth of 0.098% and a net profit of 4.632 billion yuan, down 7.58% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth in net profit in five years [3][5]. - The revenue gap between Wuliangye and its competitor Moutai has widened, with Wuliangye's revenue difference exceeding 40 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][10]. Management and Strategy - The new general manager, Hua Tao, has faced criticism for his management style and the internal chaos following his appointment, which has affected the company's marketing and distribution strategies [5][6]. - Hua Tao's strategy to target the low-alcohol market has been slow to materialize, with the company struggling to adapt to changing consumer preferences [6][7]. - Wuliangye's cancellation of dividends is seen as a response to cash flow pressures, with net cash flow from operating activities declining by 12.7% year-on-year [6][9]. Market Position and Competition - The low-alcohol market is becoming increasingly competitive, with over 20 companies launching similar products, while Wuliangye's brand perception does not align with younger consumers' preferences [7][8]. - Wuliangye's low-alcohol products have not gained significant traction in online sales, indicating a lack of effective marketing and distribution strategies [8][9]. - The company's current challenges are attributed to long-standing issues such as a narrow product range, inadequate brand modernization, and rigid channel management [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of younger consumers is driving the popularity of low-alcohol beverages, leading traditional liquor brands to adapt and innovate in this segment [1][14]. Group 1: Market Trends - The low-alcohol beverage market in China reached a scale of 338 billion yuan in 2022 and is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of over 30% [15]. - During the "618" shopping festival, low-alcohol beverage sales surged tenfold, with consumers aged 18-35 contributing over 60% of the sales [16]. - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 is projected to become the first low-alcohol beverage in the industry to achieve sales of 10 billion yuan, with 50% of its sales coming from this specific product [2][14]. Group 2: Company Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao is leveraging its long-term strategic vision to embrace the new consumption era, focusing on low-alcohol products as a key growth area [5][21]. - The company has developed proprietary technology to maintain quality while reducing alcohol content, overcoming traditional barriers associated with low-alcohol beverages [12][13]. - Luzhou Laojiao's low-alcohol strategy has been in place for decades, with innovations such as the "ice drink" concept introduced in 2009, which has helped redefine the consumption of traditional liquor [21][24]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Luzhou Laojiao benefits from its unique production techniques and a rich heritage of over 450 years, which provide a natural advantage in the low-alcohol segment [3][8]. - The company has thousands of aging pits, with over 90% of the industry’s old pits, which contribute to the rich flavor profile of its low-alcohol products [13][11]. - The distinct flavor characteristics of Luzhou Laojiao's products allow them to maintain quality even after reducing alcohol content, addressing consumer perceptions of low-alcohol beverages being inferior [7][12]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 is becoming a popular choice in social settings, with 70% of business banquets in North China opting for this product, reflecting changing consumer preferences [19][18]. - The product's appeal lies in its ability to provide a pleasant drinking experience without the heavy alcohol burden, making it suitable for younger consumers and casual drinking occasions [14][19]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Luzhou Laojiao plans to launch a 28-degree version of Guojiao 1573, indicating a continued commitment to expanding its low-alcohol product line [20]. - The company is expected to further innovate in the low-alcohol space, combining traditional techniques with modern consumption trends to capture a larger market share [24].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's 2025 interim report shows a revenue growth rate of only 9.1%, the lowest in nearly a decade, indicating a negative growth in Moutai series liquor revenue, reflecting the industry's adjustment period [3] Industry Overview - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a dual impact from macroeconomic cycles and industry adjustments, with companies preparing for the second half of the year by adopting strategies such as promoting low-alcohol liquor and improving manufacturer relationships [3][4] - The market for low-alcohol liquor (defined as below 30% alcohol content) is expected to reach a scale of 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 20% in recent years, driven by a young consumer demographic [5][6] Company Strategies - Major liquor companies are launching new low-alcohol products to cater to changing consumer preferences, with brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao announcing new low-alcohol offerings [3][4][5] - Water Well Square has also developed products below 38 degrees alcohol content, indicating a trend towards lower alcohol offerings [4] - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on three transformations: customer base, consumption scenarios, and service, to adapt to the current market challenges [9] Market Sentiment - The liquor industry is facing a divided sentiment, with some companies expressing pessimism about the market while others maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook [7][10] - The overall market is characterized by weak recovery and strong differentiation, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye expected to stabilize first, while mid-range and regional brands continue to face pressure [10][11] Economic Context - The Chinese government's investment in infrastructure and consumption stimulus measures are expected to gradually benefit the liquor industry, with a notable increase in stock prices for liquor companies following positive economic indicators [9][10]

Industry Challenges - The Chinese liquor industry is facing four major shocks: economic cycles, consumption stratification, generational shifts, and policy adjustments, which are more complex than during the "Eight Regulations" period in 2012 [3] - In Q1 2025, national liquor production is expected to decline by 7.2% year-on-year, with 59.7% of companies experiencing profit margin declines and 50.9% reporting reduced revenue [3] Economic Cycle and Consumption Stratification - The high-end price segment of 800-1500 RMB is experiencing price inversion, with products like Moutai 1935 being forced to lower prices to around 700 RMB to boost sales, reflecting a contraction in business banquet demand [3] - The market is witnessing a significant trend of consumption downgrade, with light bottle liquor under 100 RMB growing at a compound annual growth rate of 14%, projected to exceed 150 billion RMB by 2024 [3] Generational Shift in Consumer Behavior - The rise of younger consumers is reshaping market dynamics, with a 22% decline in liquor consumption frequency among the 25-35 age group, favoring lower alcohol content beverages [4] - Traditional drinking culture is declining, with wedding wine consumption dropping from one box per table to two bottles, indicating a shift from "face consumption" to "quality consumption" [4] Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the liquor industry is increasing, with CR6 companies accounting for 87.6% of A-share liquor revenue, highlighting a significant Matthew effect [5] - Emerging categories like low-alcohol and craft beer are growing at over 10% annually, diverting demand from traditional liquor [5] Policy Adjustments - The "ban on alcohol" policy introduced in May 2025 has significantly reduced the share of government consumption from 40% in 2011 to 5% in 2023, impacting major brands like Moutai [6] - The confidence of the capital market in liquor stocks has been shaken, with the liquor index experiencing a cumulative decline of 4.35% from May 19 to June 16 [6] Strategic Transformation - The liquor industry must innovate through product development, scene reconstruction, channel optimization, and global expansion to find new growth in a saturated market [8] Product Innovation - The trend towards lower alcohol content is irreversible, with major brands launching products with lower alcohol levels to attract younger consumers [9] - Luzhou Laojiao has increased its low-alcohol product share from 15% to 50%, indicating a strategic shift towards mid-low alcohol products [9] Scene Reconstruction - Leading companies are enhancing their offerings for various consumption scenarios, such as personal drinking and cultural tourism, to adapt to changing consumer preferences [10] - Moutai 1935 has seen significant sales growth by emphasizing its cultural significance and upgrading product quality [10] Channel Optimization - Companies are balancing online and offline sales channels, with e-commerce platforms like JD and Douyin playing a crucial role in inventory management [11] - Moutai is deepening its direct sales model and collaborating with distributors to stabilize partnerships [11] Global Expansion - In 2024, China's liquor exports are projected to reach 970 million USD, growing by 20.4%, indicating a consensus on the need for internationalization [12] - Major brands are participating in global events to enhance their international presence, adapting products to local consumption habits [12] Manufacturer Relationship Reconstruction - Leading companies are reassessing their relationships with distributors, focusing on shared goals and risk-sharing to alleviate channel pressures [14] - This collaborative approach aims to create a win-win situation, enhancing resilience against market fluctuations [14] Future Outlook - The long-term competitiveness of the liquor industry will depend on three core capabilities: brand rejuvenation, supply chain resilience, and policy responsiveness [15] - Companies must adapt to the preferences of younger consumers and enhance their marketing strategies through social media [16] - Strengthening supply chain efficiency and establishing policy response mechanisms will be crucial for navigating future challenges [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao's sales of the Guojiao 1573 series have reached 20 billion yuan, with the 38-degree Guojiao 1573 accounting for approximately 50% of this, positioning it as a significant contributor to the company's performance and potentially the first low-alcohol liquor product to exceed 10 billion yuan in sales [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao is increasing its R&D investment to develop lower-alcohol products, such as the newly developed 28-degree Guojiao 1573, to diversify its product line and meet varying consumer demands [1] - The company has successfully overcome technical challenges in producing high-quality low-alcohol liquor, showcasing its innovation and craftsmanship in the industry [3][4] - Luzhou Laojiao's long-standing use of ancient fermentation pits, some over 450 years old, contributes to the unique microbial ecosystem that enhances the quality of its low-alcohol products [4] Group 2: Industry Trends and Market Dynamics - The low-alcohol liquor market is experiencing rapid growth, with market size projected to increase from 20 billion yuan in 2020 to 57 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 25% [5] - Young consumers, aged 18-35, now represent over 60% of the liquor market, favoring low-alcohol options for a lighter drinking experience and social interactions [6] - The acceptance of low-alcohol products varies by region, with the 38-degree Guojiao 1573 showing strong sales performance in key markets such as Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northern Zhejiang [6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The increasing focus on low-alcohol products by major liquor companies, including Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, is intensifying competition in the market, driving improvements in product quality and service [1][7] - The shift towards low-alcohol options is not merely a trend but a response to changing consumer preferences, indicating a significant transformation in the liquor consumption landscape [6][7]