来源：新鲜速递 一、价格动态与市场反应 国际金价与国内传导 黄金：现货黄金日内涨幅超2%，最高报4630美元/盎司，新年首月累计上涨280美元（约1953元人民 币）。纽约期金同步突破4600美元，创历史纪录。 白银：现货白银涨超5%，站上86美元/盎司；沪银期货主力合约单日大涨14.42%，突破20998元/千克。 白银年内实际涨幅为17.44%（此前185%为错误引用）。 国内零售市场：品牌金饰价格单日跳涨19-22元/克，周大福、老凤祥等报价达1429元/克，60克金镯总价 较年初翻倍至超8万元。 消费者与投资者两极分化 刚需焦虑：婚庆"三金"成本激增，部分新人推迟婚期或转向"银行金条+深圳水贝加工"，节省30%成 本。 投资行为：早期囤金者套现获利（如山东投资者卖出2公斤金条净赚百万），但散户追高易引发贷款购 金风险；部分投资者因"卖飞"黄金（提前抛售）表示遗憾。 二、核心上涨动因 2026年1月12日，现货黄金价格首次突破4600美元/盎司，盘中最高触及4630美元，创下历史新高，同时 白银突破86美元/盎司，贵金属市场迎来新一轮暴涨行情。 三、市场分歧与风险警示 主要风险点： 货币政策宽松预期 美 ...

（原标题：再创新高！现货白银突破61美元，年内翻倍领跑贵金属） 白银飙涨行情还在延续。 12月10日，现货白银价格震荡走高，首次站上61美元/盎司，截至10:33，报61.197美元/盎司，涨 0.88%。上个交易日，白银首次突破60美元大关。今年以来，银价已实现翻倍，远超黄金涨幅。 受现货提振，12月10日沪银主力合约涨幅扩大至5%，截至10:32，报14328元/千克，续创历史新高。 在供给侧，安粮期货认为，驱动白银价格上涨的核心因素，已从宏观预期切换至紧张的现货基本面。数 据显示，全球白银市场正面临连续多年的结构性供应短缺，COMEX交易所库存已降至多年低位。与此 同时，资金正大幅流入白银ETF，12月初仅四个交易日的流入量就创下数月新高，加剧了实物供应的紧 张预期。 方正中期期货指出，白银现货紧张或与宏观政策有关。美国首次将白银纳入关键矿产清单，印度和俄罗 斯已将白银纳入其官方储备体系，并采取了一系列开创性措施来强化白银的货币属性。全球白银库存总 量和结构性矛盾犹存，可流通的现货资源趋紧，白银中长期走势依旧看涨。当前金银比处于相对高位， 叠加铜价未来中枢上行预期，未来白银价格上涨弹性预计强于黄金。 在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, alongside rising investment demand and industrial applications, particularly in the solar energy sector [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of this week, the spot silver price has risen above $42 per ounce, reaching the highest level since September 2011 [1]. - In the futures market, silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2.36%, surpassing 10,000 yuan per kilogram, marking a historical high [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data shows weakness, with the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.9% year-on-year and initial jobless claims reaching a four-year high of 263,000 [3]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are around 88%-92% [3]. Group 3: Investment Demand - The World Silver Association reported a net inflow of 95 million ounces into silver ETPs in the first half of 2025, with total holdings reaching 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below the peak in February 2021 [3]. - The net long positions in silver futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have surged to the highest level since the first half of 2021 [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand - Silver is increasingly recognized not only for its financial attributes but also for its role as a key industrial metal, particularly in the solar energy sector [4]. - The European Photovoltaic Association projects that global solar capacity will increase by 655 GW in 2025, leading to an additional silver demand of 52,000 to 65,000 tons [5]. Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply is expected to grow from 31,915 tons in 2024 to 33,039 tons by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.2% [5]. - The World Silver Association forecasts a supply-demand gap of 5,000 tons in 2024, which is expected to remain around 4,000 tons in 2025, indicating a persistent shortage [6].