本计价周期内，美国针对中东不断施压，中东地缘局势升级，市场担忧冲突后导致 石油供应中断，因 此，原油价格地缘溢价明显。此外，美国极寒天气扰动，原油产量损失量较大，同时恢复时间较长，叠 加哈萨克斯坦 油田恢复也较市场预期更晚，阶段性的供应端出现紧张情况，共同推动了原油价格上 行。其中WTI原油站稳60美元/桶关口后再度突破65元/桶位置，与之对应的原油变化率在正值范围内上 行，成品油零售价格将再遇上调，这也是2026年首个"二连涨"。据 卓创资讯测算，截至1月30日收盘， 国内第9个工作日参考原油变化率5.32%，预计汽柴油上调230元/吨，调价窗口2月3日24时。 ...

Group 1 - Mexico's oil production is expected to decline significantly, reaching levels not seen since the late 1970s before the Cantarell oil field was brought online [1] - The average oil production in Mexico for this year is projected to be 1.621 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level since the Cantarell field began production in 1979 [1] - The recent discovery of the Zama oil field is estimated to hold only 800 million barrels of oil, which is significantly less than the 35 billion barrels found in Cantarell [1] Group 2 - The reduction in Mexico's oil exports has intensified supply constraints for U.S. refineries, which are heavily reliant on heavy sour crude from Mexico [4] - Canadian oil prices have reached their highest levels in over two years due to the supply tightness caused by reduced exports from Mexico and ongoing trade disputes with Canada [4] - Mexico's state-owned oil company, Pemex, is facing difficulties in timely payments to suppliers, amounting to approximately $20 billion, which has slowed production progress [4]