1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated within a certain range. The expected short - term PTA spot price will follow the cost - side to fluctuate widely, and the upside space of the basis is limited. With the downstream polyester production cut news and the possible load reduction of PTA factories, attention should be paid to subsequent changes in the cost side and upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - Overseas logistics is blocked, and the import volume of ethylene glycol will drop to a low level later. Although the demand support has weakened due to the production cut plans of polyester factories, the supply - side contraction of ethylene glycol is more obvious. The de - stocking amplitude from April to May is still expanding, and the social inventory will quickly shrink later. In the short term, ethylene glycol will maintain a relatively strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated within a certain range. The spot was negotiated and traded at around 05 - 50~62, with the price negotiation range at 6700~6930. There were transactions at around 05 - 48 in the middle of the month. This week's warehouse receipts were traded at around 05 - 45. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 05 - 59 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 6830, the basis of the 05 contract is 62, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories is 5.85 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared with the previous period, showing a positive situation [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive situation [6]. - **Main positions**: The net long position decreased, showing a positive situation [6]. - **Expectation**: The US - Iran situation is still tense. The market is waiting and seeing the negotiation progress. With the repeated geopolitical news this week, international oil prices fluctuated widely at a high level, driving the polyester raw materials to rebound after a decline. The activity of traders in the spot market decreased, there were few bids in the market, and the spot basis fluctuated within a certain range. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will follow the cost - side to fluctuate widely, and the upside space of the basis is limited. With the downstream polyester production cut news and the possible load reduction of PTA factories, attention should be paid to subsequent changes in the cost side and upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, and the basis strengthened significantly. In the morning, the ethylene glycol futures market was firm and rising, and the spot was traded at a high level of around 5550 - 5560 yuan/ton. Traders' buying enthusiasm was high, and the spot basis strengthened rapidly. In the afternoon, the ethylene glycol futures market corrected from the high level, and the spot was negotiated at a premium of 5 - 25 yuan/ton to the 05 contract at the end of the session, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5429, the basis of the 05 contract is 70, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 92.9 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons compared with the previous period, showing a negative situation [8]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive situation [8]. - **Main positions**: The net short position increased, showing a negative situation [7]. - **Expectation**: Overseas logistics is blocked, and the import volume of ethylene glycol will drop to a low level later. The port inventory can show a continuous decline from mid - April. Due to the high raw material prices, the polyester factories' production cut and suspension plans have been successively introduced recently, and the average monthly load of polyester in April will drop to around 85% - 86%. The demand support has weakened. However, the supply - side contraction of ethylene glycol is more obvious, and the de - stocking amplitude from April to May is still expanding, expected to be around 600,000 tons. The social inventory will quickly shrink later. In the short term, ethylene glycol will maintain a relatively strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [7]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the report. 3.4基本面数据 PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production capacity base, output, import volume, demand, inventory change, domestic utilization rate, demand from polyester, and balance with polyester [12]. PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, including total output, import, export, total consumption, distillate consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year output change, year - on - year consumption change, cumulative year - on - year output change, and cumulative year - on - year consumption change [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including total output, import, export, total consumption, polyester consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year output change, year - on - year import change, year - on - year supply change, year - on - year consumption change, cumulative year - on - year supply change, and cumulative year - on - year consumption change [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 Bullish factors - The Strait of Hormuz is continuously blocked, and the Middle East supply is severely interrupted. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of the world's oil supply and is still under the actual control of Iran. The output of major oil fields in southern Iraq has dropped sharply to only 1.3 million barrels per day (about 4.3 million barrels per day before the war), and Kuwait has also announced production cuts due to force majeure. The major oil - producing countries in the Middle East have been forced to significantly reduce exports, and there is a continuous supply gap in the market [10]. - Iran denies negotiations, and the prospect of a cease - fire is unclear. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Tehran has not conducted direct negotiations with Washington, which disappointed the market's expectations of a market downgrade. Brent crude oil rose nearly 2% on Thursday, breaking through $104 per barrel. As long as there is no substantial progress in the cease - fire agreement, the geopolitical premium will be difficult to subside [10]. - Trump's tough stance continues to increase the risk premium. Trump posted on social media on Thursday morning that "Iran had better get serious soon, otherwise it will be irreversible", and oil prices immediately rose by about 3%, while the stock market was under pressure. The uncertainty of US military operations continues to provide upward momentum for oil prices [10]. Bearish factors - Trump suspended the strike on Iran's energy infrastructure. Trump announced on Monday that he would suspend the military strike on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days, saying that the US and Iran were having "productive dialogues", and oil prices immediately plunged by more than 10%. This was the biggest single - day bearish impact this week [11]. - The IEA released the largest - ever strategic reserve. The International Energy Agency obtained the unanimous consent of 32 member states on March 11 and approved the release of a record 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the global oil supply shortage caused by the US - Israel military operations against Iran. Although the actual delivery takes time, this move provides psychological buffer for the market and suppresses some of the upward momentum [11]. - Trump's "cease - fire negotiation" remarks and the spread of the 15 - point peace plan. Trump said that the US and Iran had "good and productive dialogues" in the past two days, aiming to promote a "complete and thorough solution" to the Middle East conflict. Brent crude oil once plunged by more than 13%. On Wednesday, it was reported that Trump proposed a 15 - point peace plan to Iran, and oil prices subsequently fell. Although Iran later denied the negotiations, such news still temporarily and effectively suppressed oil prices [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With the geopolitical situation remaining tense, international oil prices have fluctuated widely at high levels, driving the overall decline and rebound of polyester raw materials. The activity of spot market traders has decreased, and the spot basis has fluctuated within a range. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate widely following the cost side, with limited upside potential for the basis. Downstream polyester production cuts and possible PTA plant load reduction should be monitored [5]. - MEG: Overseas logistics disruptions will lead to a decline in ethylene glycol imports. Although the demand support has weakened due to polyester plant production cuts, the supply contraction is more significant. The de - stocking amplitude from April to May is expected to reach around 600,000 tons, and the social inventory will shrink rapidly. In the short term, ethylene glycol will maintain a relatively strong pattern [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 - No information provided in the content 3.2每日提示 - PTA: The fundamentals on Friday showed that next - week goods were traded at 05 - 60~65, with a price negotiation range of 6,630 - 6,840. Next - week warehouse receipts were traded at 05 - 59. The mainstream spot basis was 05 - 64. The spot price was 6,730, and the 05 - contract basis was - 146, indicating a premium on the futures market. PTA factory inventory was 5.85 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract increased [6]. - MEG: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly, and the market negotiation was acceptable. At night, it opened higher and then declined, with weak negotiation. During the day, it oscillated and rebounded at a low level. The spot basis strengthened slightly, and the next - week spot was traded at a discount of about 30 yuan/ton to the 05 - contract. The spot price was 5,150, and the 05 - contract basis was - 129, with a neutral situation. The inventory in East China was 929,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract increased [8]. 3.3今日关注 - The report mentions that the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, especially the progress of the negotiation, the impact on oil prices, and the changes in the upstream and downstream device operations of PTA and MEG should be focused on [5][7] 3.4基本面数据 - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, imports, inventory changes, and demand. For example, in September 2025, PX production was 3.25 million tons, imports were 870,000 tons, and there was a supply - demand deficit of 25,000 tons [12]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering production, imports, exports, consumption, and surplus. For instance, in October 2025, the total production was 6.5 million tons, exports were 223,000 tons, and the surplus was 104,000 tons [13]. - **MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including production, imports, consumption, and surplus. For example, in October 2025, the total production was 1.922 million tons, imports were 643,000 tons, and the surplus was 117,000 tons [14]. - **Price**: It provides the price information of various products on March 27 and March 26, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, and basis. For example, the spot price of PTA was 6,760 yuan/ton on March 27, an increase of 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [15]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products, such as the PTA factory inventory available days in China and the MEG port inventory in East China [43]. - **Industry Start - up Rates**: It shows the start - up rates of the upstream and downstream industries of polyester, including the start - up rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, and polyester, as well as the capacity utilization rates of related industries [54][56][58]. - **Profit Analysis**: It presents the profit data of various products, such as PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different production methods, and the production profits of polyester fibers [59][62][64]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries to address global oil supply tensions caused by the Middle East situation [2] - Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose above $100 per barrel, while light crude oil futures for April delivery increased by $3.80 to $87.25 per barrel, marking a 4.55% rise [2] - The IEA currently holds over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil reserves, in addition to approximately 600 million barrels of corporate reserves controlled by member governments [2] Group 2 - Analysts from Wood Mackenzie noted that the current decline in oil exports from Gulf countries cannot be fully compensated by the release of oil reserves or alternative sources, indicating a significant supply gap [3] - The U.S. strategic oil reserves are at a low level, limiting the ability to alleviate market supply shortages through further releases [3] - Market analysts emphasize that the key factors affecting oil prices remain the duration of the conflict and the navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. impacting oil supply [1] - The WTI crude oil price has stabilized above $60 per barrel and has further surpassed $65 per barrel, indicating a positive change rate in oil prices [1] - The retail prices of refined oil products are expected to increase, marking the first consecutive price hike in 2026, with an estimated increase of 230 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the reference crude oil change rate as of January 30 is 5.32%, indicating a significant upward trend in oil prices [1] - The adjustment window for the price change is set for February 3 at 24:00, reflecting the immediate impact of the current market conditions [1] - Supply-side tensions are exacerbated by delays in the recovery of oil production in Kazakhstan, which is later than market expectations [1]

Group 1 - Mexico's oil production is expected to decline significantly, reaching levels not seen since the late 1970s before the Cantarell oil field was brought online [1] - The average oil production in Mexico for this year is projected to be 1.621 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level since the Cantarell field began production in 1979 [1] - The recent discovery of the Zama oil field is estimated to hold only 800 million barrels of oil, which is significantly less than the 35 billion barrels found in Cantarell [1] Group 2 - The reduction in Mexico's oil exports has intensified supply constraints for U.S. refineries, which are heavily reliant on heavy sour crude from Mexico [4] - Canadian oil prices have reached their highest levels in over two years due to the supply tightness caused by reduced exports from Mexico and ongoing trade disputes with Canada [4] - Mexico's state-owned oil company, Pemex, is facing difficulties in timely payments to suppliers, amounting to approximately $20 billion, which has slowed production progress [4]