报告说，2026年全球日均石油需求将比2025年增加约138万桶，达1.065亿桶；2025年，全球日均石油需 求将比去年增加129万桶，达1.051亿桶。 欧佩克7月曾预测，2026年全球日均石油需求将比2025年增加128万桶。报告解释说，本次预期上调主要 是因为经济合作与发展组织的部分地区以及中东和非洲地区的经济增长预期改善。（完） 新华社维也纳8月12日电（记者孟凡宇）石油输出国组织（欧佩克）在12日发布的月度石油市场报告中 上调了对2026年全球石油需求增长的预测，同时维持2025年预测不变。 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years and is considering pausing production increases starting in October, indicating a cautious approach [1] - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with WTI crude oil signaling a potential sell-off [1] Group 2 - The sentiment in the oil market is currently uncertain, with market participants advised to monitor developments closely [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the conclusion of the China-US tariff agreement, the market's downward revision expectations for global economic growth have been corrected, and expectations for oil demand have started to be revised upward. After April 2, mainstream institutions revised down oil demand by 200,000 - 500,000 barrels per day, and after the agreement, it is expected to be revised up by 300,000 - 400,000 barrels per day. The subsequent adjustment depends on the tariff issue game after 90 days, but it will basically not be worse than the post - April 2 expectations [2] - After the China-US trade agreement was reached, oil prices bottomed out and rebounded in the short term, and a short - position allocation was recommended in the medium term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.72, closing at $63.67 per barrel, a gain of 2.78%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose $1.67, closing at $66.63 per barrel, a gain of 2.57%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 1.70%, at 491 yuan per barrel [1] - US inflation cooled, with the April CPI at 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since February 2021. Core CPI rose 2.8% year - on - year, the slowest pace since the inflation outbreak in spring 2021. Housing costs remained the key to inflation, while airfares, used car prices, and food prices declined. However, the impact of tariffs has not fully emerged, and enterprises may be digesting inventories [1] - Saudi Arabia promised to invest $600 billion in the US, covering arms, technology, Boeing aircraft, infrastructure, and data centers. The White House said that the US and Saudi Arabia reached the largest - scale commercial agreement in the history of the two countries, including $80 billion in high - tech investments from companies such as Google, DataVolt, and Oracle, a $20 billion AI data center and energy infrastructure investment from DataVolt, a $4.8 billion Boeing aircraft purchase, and an arms sales agreement of nearly $142 billion. The Saudi Crown Prince said that Saudi Arabia will strive to increase its investment in the US to $1 trillion [1] - The US State Department imposed a new round of sanctions on the shipping network related to Iran, stating that Iran's illegal oil sales fund Iran's weapons and Houthi attacks and will continue to exert maximum pressure on Iran [1] - For the week ending May 9 in the US, API crude oil inventories were 4.287 million barrels, compared with an expected - 1.96 million barrels and a previous value of - 4.494 million barrels; gasoline inventories were - 1.374 million barrels, compared with an expected - 0.714 million barrels and a previous value of - 1.974 million barrels; refined oil inventories were - 3.675 million barrels, compared with an expected 0.372 million barrels and a previous value of 2.242 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories were - 0.85 million barrels, compared with a previous value of - 0.854 million barrels [1] - After the China - US tariff agreement was reached, foreign investment banks raised their economic growth expectations for China. Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for China's recent quarterly GDP, expecting enterprises to accelerate exports to take advantage of lower tariffs. JPMorgan Chase raised China's GDP growth rate (quarter - on - quarter annualized growth rate) from the second to the fourth quarter to 3% [1] Investment Logic - Diesel is the most affected by tariffs (freight and logistics industry), followed by fuel oil and jet fuel (shipping and aviation), then naphtha (chemical industry), and gasoline is the least affected and benefits from the demand elasticity after the oil price decline [2] Strategy - After the China - US trade agreement was reached, oil prices bottomed out and rebounded in the short term, and a short - position allocation was recommended in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks include a significant increase in OPEC production and macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks include a tightening of supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]