智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持海底捞(06862)增持评级。预测公司2025-2027年收入分 别为431.83/456.91/493.73亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长1%/6%/8%;预测公司2025-2027年归母净利润分 别为40.38/45.10/50.24亿元，参考同行业可比公司估值，考虑海底捞是国内餐饮龙头，给予公司2026年 高于行业平均的22xPE，目标市值1128亿港元，目标价20.23港元(按1港币=0.88元人民币)。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 红石榴计划稳步推进 2024年，集团正式启动"红石榴计划"，旨在鼓励孵化和发展更多的餐饮新品牌，推动餐饮服务创新。截 至2025年6月30日，除海底捞火锅之外，公司还运营14个餐饮品牌共计126家餐厅。其中2025上半年新 开"焰请烤肉铺子"46家，截至2025年6月30日共运营70家。2025H1其他餐厅收入5.97亿元，同比 +227%。展望未来，烤肉、小火锅、寿司等赛道具备扩张潜力。 上市以来海底捞经历高速扩张期、战略调整期、多品牌发展期等多个生命阶段，其管理层变更与公司发 展阶段相匹配。上市之初，张勇先生任公司董事会主席及首 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haidilao International Holding Ltd. is facing challenges with declining revenue, profit, and table turnover rates, prompting the return of founder Zhang Yong as CEO to strengthen confidence and unify strategic decision-making [1][3][5] Performance Decline - The company announced that from January 13, 2026, Zhang Yong will resume the role of CEO, following the resignation of Guo Yiqun [2] - In 2024, Haidilao achieved revenue of 42.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, while profit rose by 4.6% to 4.7 billion yuan [3] - In the first half of 2025, revenue fell by 3.7% to 20.703 billion yuan, and profit decreased by 13.7% to 1.755 billion yuan, attributed to a decline in table turnover rates and initial adjustments in product and service innovation [3] Management Changes - The change in CEO is linked to unsatisfactory performance metrics in 2025, including revenue, net profit, and table turnover rates, alongside management issues highlighted by public controversies [3][5] - Zhang Yong's return aims to address these challenges and enhance management efficiency by promoting frontline managers to decision-making roles [3][5] Market Environment - The overall restaurant market is undergoing transformation, with intensified competition in the hot pot sector, leading to operational challenges for large-format restaurants like Haidilao [4][5] - The company has initiated a franchise model to tap into demand in lower-tier cities, with over 70% of franchise applications coming from third-tier cities and below [6] Growth Strategies - Haidilao is implementing the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to encourage the incubation of new restaurant brands, having launched 11 new brands with a total of 74 outlets by the end of 2024 [5] - The company is also focusing on diversifying consumer scenarios, with nearly 30 night snack-themed stores and over 50 standard version theme stores operational by mid-2025 [5] - In the first half of 2025, the takeaway business saw a revenue increase of nearly 60%, indicating a shift towards enhancing service delivery channels [5]

Core Viewpoint - The return of founder Zhang Yong as CEO of Haidilao is seen as a strategic move to navigate the company out of its current transformation challenges, following a series of leadership changes and operational adjustments over the past few years [1][12]. Leadership Changes - Haidilao has experienced frequent leadership changes, with Zhang Yong returning after four years, marking the third CEO change in recent years, indicating a need for alignment with the company's evolving strategic requirements [2][12]. - The previous CEOs, including Yang Lijuan and Gou Yiqun, were all part of the founding team, reflecting a strong internal leadership pipeline [2][3]. Operational Challenges and Strategies - The company faced significant operational challenges, including a historic loss of 4.16 billion RMB in 2021 due to aggressive expansion, leading to the implementation of the "Woodpecker Plan" to close underperforming stores [3][4]. - Yang Lijuan's leadership saw the closure of 276 restaurants in 2021, with subsequent years showing a reduction in closures, indicating effective strategic adjustments [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Haidilao achieved record revenues of 41.453 billion RMB and a net profit of 4.495 billion RMB, with significant growth compared to 2019 [4]. - Despite growth in key metrics, the average customer spending in 2023 declined from 103.2 RMB to 97.3 RMB, reflecting broader consumer spending trends [4][13]. New Strategic Initiatives - The "Pomegranate Plan" was initiated to diversify the business model and mitigate risks associated with the main brand's performance, with a focus on developing new restaurant brands [8][12]. - By the end of 2024, Haidilao had established 11 new restaurant brands, contributing 4.83 million RMB in revenue, although this still represented a small portion of overall revenue [12][13]. Market Response - Following the announcement of Zhang Yong's return, Haidilao's stock price surged over 10%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the leadership change [15].

Core Insights - The company is optimizing its operational model through a multi-dimensional approach, focusing on product, scene, and management improvements [1] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan is showing positive results, with significant brand incubation and expansion efforts [1][2] Group 1: Operational Model Optimization - The company employs a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strictly controls franchisee entry standards, optimizing its operational model across three dimensions: product, scene, and management [1] - In the product dimension, the company plans to focus on fresh-cut meat and seasonal series by 2025 [1] - The scene dimension will see an emphasis on expanding themed stores and corporate park locations [1] - Management improvements include implementing a dual management store model and a dedicated customer manager system [1] Group 2: Franchise Development - The company will launch its franchise program in March 2024, with a rigorous selection mechanism that includes qualification reviews, operational capability assessments, and long-term development compatibility evaluations [1] - As of the end of 2024, 13 franchise stores have been established, with a strong management model to ensure service quality and standardization [1] Group 3: Brand Incubation and Growth - The "Red Pomegranate" plan, initiated in 2024, encourages the incubation of new brands, resulting in the establishment of 11 restaurant brands and 74 stores by the end of 2024 [1] - This initiative is expected to create a second growth curve for the company [1] Group 4: Digital and Supply Chain Enhancements - The company is leveraging big data and AI technology to enhance customer satisfaction and reduce churn rates through an AI-driven post-meal evaluation system [2] - The self-developed "HiHi System" app has achieved over 20,000 monthly clicks, and the deployment of over 50 AI robots is improving efficiency across customer service and supply chain operations [2] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company anticipates net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.87 billion, 5.03 billion, and 5.27 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.44%, 3.27%, and 4.77% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.87, 0.90, and 0.95 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.90x, 15.40x, and 14.70x [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue growth and profit improvement through various strategic initiatives [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with the company successfully incubating new brands and expanding its store network [8] - The company is enhancing its operational model through a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strict control over franchisee standards [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027 [1] Operational Strategies - The company is implementing a dual management model and exclusive customer manager system to optimize its management practices [8] - A strict selection mechanism for franchisees is in place, ensuring quality and operational capability [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimization are being pursued through the use of big data and AI technologies [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue and profit growth driven by operational optimizations and new brand incubations [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with 11 new restaurant brands and 74 new stores established by the end of 2024, indicating a potential second growth curve for the company [8] - The company is implementing a strict selection mechanism for franchisees to ensure quality and service standards, with 13 franchise stores already operational by the end of 2024 [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimizations are being pursued through AI technology and data analysis, enhancing customer satisfaction and operational efficiency [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 17.21 to 14.70 over the same period [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with a strong emphasis on optimizing its operational model and expanding its store network [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with the company successfully incubating new brands and expanding its market presence [8] - The company is leveraging digital upgrades and supply chain optimization to enhance customer satisfaction and operational efficiency [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million in 2023 to 47,244 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million in 2023 to 5,269 million by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 in 2023 to 0.95 by 2027, indicating a steady growth trajectory [1] Operational Strategy - The company is implementing a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strict standards for franchisee entry, focusing on product, scene, and management optimization [8] - The company has initiated a franchise model with a rigorous selection process, ensuring quality and standardization across its outlets [8] - The company has launched multiple new restaurant brands under the "Red Pomegranate" initiative, aiming to create a second growth curve [8] Digital and Supply Chain Enhancements - The company is utilizing big data and AI technologies to improve customer feedback processing and enhance service quality [8] - The proprietary "HiHi System" app has achieved over 20,000 monthly clicks, indicating strong user engagement [8] - The deployment of over 50 AI robots across various operational areas is aimed at improving efficiency and customer service [8]