Financial Performance Expectations - Tesla is expected to report Q3 revenue of $26.4 billion, a 17% increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by a surge in purchases before the expiration of U.S. electric vehicle tax credits [2] - The company delivered 497,099 vehicles in the quarter, a 7.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations of 456,000 units [2] - Adjusted earnings per share are projected to be $0.55, a 38% increase from the previous quarter but a 24% decrease year-over-year [3] Business Segments and Revenue Sources - Tesla's automotive revenue is anticipated to be $19.6 billion, including $417 million from regulatory credits, with a projected automotive gross margin of 16.3%, up from 15% in the previous quarter [2] - Revenue from carbon credits has been declining and is expected to continue this trend due to changes in regulations that reduce the incentive for other automakers to purchase credits from Tesla [2] Future Growth and Strategic Focus - Investors are particularly interested in Tesla's future, especially regarding its dominance in the electric vehicle market and CEO Elon Musk's ambitions in robotics and AI [4] - Musk has emphasized that Tesla is more of an AI company than a traditional automaker, with significant growth expected from humanoid robots and autonomous driving technologies [4] - Analysts predict Tesla's market value could rise from $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion by early next year, and potentially reach $3 trillion by the end of 2026, driven by advancements in robotics and autonomous driving [4] Autonomous Driving and Robotics Developments - Tesla aims to achieve commercialized autonomous driving by 2026, with Musk forecasting "millions" of Teslas equipped with autonomous capabilities by the second half of next year [5] - The Cybercab, designed without a steering wheel or pedals, is expected to begin production next year at a price of approximately $30,000 [5] - However, some analysts express skepticism about Musk's ambitious timelines, citing potential legal risks and challenges in rapidly scaling the autonomous taxi service [6] Corporate Governance and Executive Compensation - As Tesla's annual shareholder meeting approaches, discussions around Musk's compensation plan are expected, which includes proposals for stock grants and performance-based incentives potentially worth up to $1 trillion [7] - Analysts anticipate that shareholders will approve Musk's new compensation plan, as his vision is closely tied to Tesla's success, and there are concerns that failure to approve could shift his focus away from Tesla [7] - Over the past year, Tesla's stock has surged over 100%, largely driven by AI expectations and signals of Musk's continued leadership [7][8]

不及预期，"灾难"——这是分析师对特斯拉今年首季度财报做出的评价。汽车营收下跌20%，净利润大跌71%。更糟糕的是，如果没有出售碳积分的纯利 润，特斯拉这一季度实际就是亏损的。业绩大幅拉胯，反对声浪不止，迫使马斯克不得不重新权衡自己的两种身份。或者是说，要选择特朗普，还是特斯 拉。 "灾难"财报 当地时间周二盘后，特斯拉发布了一份核心业绩完全逊于预期的一季报。由于汽车交付量的骤减，公司营收、利润等核心财务指标全部大幅低于预期，知名 特斯拉多头分析师Dan Ives直言"灾难"。 财报显示，特斯拉一季度实现营收193.35亿美元，较上年同期的213.01亿美元下滑9%；实现净利润4.2亿美元，较上年同期的14.05亿美元大幅下滑70.11%； 普通股股东应占净利润为4.09亿美元，较上年同期的13.9亿美元大幅下滑71%，均未达到华尔街分析师此前的预期。 这份"灾难"成绩单也并非没有铺垫，更早披露的季度交付数据，已经预示这份财报数据不会多好看。今年第一季度，特斯拉交付创2022年以来新低，全球总 交付33.7万辆，比上一季度少卖16万辆，相对比亚迪纯电少卖了8万辆。 分析人士指出，特斯拉净利润大幅下跌的原因是该 ...

撰文 / 钱亚光 Rho Motion表示："德国取消电动汽车补贴对整个欧洲市场产生了毁灭性的影响，如果美国效仿，或将看到同样的情况。" 德国电动汽车销量大幅下降，主要原因在于德国取消了购买激励措施。政府对企业的激励措施于2023年9月结束，对私家车的激励措施于同年12月底结 束，导致电动汽车需求陷入低迷。根据德国机动车管理局的数据，2024年其纯电动汽车注册量下降了四分之一以上，降至38.06万辆。 根据Rho Motion 的数据，2024 年全球电动汽车销量大幅增长，全球纯电动汽车和插混汽车销量达1710万辆，飙升 25.6%。 但在欧洲，由于补贴削减令市场承压，电动汽车的销量总体呈下降趋势。 1月21日，欧洲汽车制造商协会（ACEA）表示，2024年，欧盟、欧洲自由贸易联盟和英国市场的新车注册量增长了0.8%，达到1060万辆。 2024年12月，电池电动汽车的注册量下降了10.2%，至144367辆。这一下降主要是由德国（-38.6%）和法国（-20.7%）的注册量大幅下降，导致2024年 的注册量与2023年相比下降了5.9%，总市场份额为13.6%。 而12月插混汽车注册量增长了4.9%，这得益 ...