从市场空间看，海外市场的重要性持续上升。对车企而言，"出海"不仅是推动销量扩张的必经之路，更 是改善盈利结构、增强抗风险能力的关键选择。实践证明，布局国内与国际"双市场"的车企，经营稳定 性和盈利弹性更强。未来，谁能在海外市场率先站稳脚跟、形成体系化布局，谁就更有可能在新一轮竞 争中占据主动。 政策环境仍将是支撑行业运行的重要力量。新能源汽车在经历早期补贴推动后，已逐步转向市场驱动， 但消费端政策的引导和托底作用仍不可或缺。在使用和流通领域，二手车交易、跨区域流转、新业态发 展等方面仍存在不少堵点。若这些问题得到有效解决，汽车作为耐用消费品的流动性将显著提升，从而 形成更具韧性的内需循环。 ■刘钊 刚刚过去的2025年，中国汽车产业在深度调整中持续前行。价格竞争、技术升级、消费分化与全球化进 程相互交织，推动行业从高速扩张阶段迈入以质量和结构升级为主导的发展新阶段。站在2026年的崭新 起点，如何在不确定性中稳定预期、在激烈的竞争中夯实能力，成为摆在整个行业面前的现实课题。 从竞争格局看，随着市场由增量竞争转向存量竞争，企业间的分化日益明显。规模偏小、技术积累不 足、产品竞争力有限的企业，面临的生存压力不断加 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the automotive industry will experience new growth driven by "smart driving and overseas expansion" in 2026, with L3-level autonomous driving penetration expected to continue increasing and new energy vehicle (NEV) exports maintaining high growth [2][3] - The report anticipates that the overall export of vehicles will exceed expectations in 2025, with strong momentum for NEV exports in regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and North America, indicating a new growth phase for domestic brands [2] - The report highlights that the L3 window period is clearly defined, with multiple domestic manufacturers set to mass-produce vehicles equipped with advanced driving assistance systems, leading to increased penetration of intelligent components [2] Vehicle Sector - The overall demand in the vehicle market remains stable, with a projected retail sales volume of 2,494 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 1% [45] - NEV sales are steadily increasing, with a retail penetration rate exceeding 50%, and a cumulative retail sales volume of 10.15 million units from January to October 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.9% [13] - The average price of passenger vehicles is on a downward trend, with the average price in the first ten months of 2025 being 170,000 yuan, a decrease of 7,000 yuan from the previous year [19] Component Sector - The report indicates that the trend towards electrification remains unchanged, with the penetration of intelligent components expected to continue rising, benefiting from the ongoing development of the automotive supply chain [2] - The report suggests that the domestic automotive supply chain, combined with overseas expansion, is likely to accelerate in 2026, providing incremental opportunities for relevant component manufacturers [2] Robotics Sector - The report notes that humanoid robots are entering a critical stage of industrialization, with significant demand for complex scene interactions driving the growth of core components, benefiting companies with relevant layouts in the robotics field [2] - The report emphasizes that the core components of humanoid robots will enjoy the dividends of industrial development, with companies positioned in this sector expected to benefit first [2] Low-altitude Economy - The report states that the domestic low-altitude economy has transitioned from a nascent stage to a period of rapid development, with the market scale expected to leap from hundreds of billions to trillions [2] - Several automotive companies are entering the low-altitude economy sector, indicating a promising future for growth [2] Policy and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the 2026 NEV purchase tax subsidy will be reduced, leading to increased market competition, while the overall trend of NEV penetration and intelligentization is expected to drive the rise of domestic brands [2][38] - The tightening of "two new" policies is anticipated to increase the marginal cost for consumers, with various regions adjusting or suspending vehicle replacement and scrapping subsidy policies [39][40]

11月，中国汽车总销量为342.9万辆，同比增长3.4%。其中，汽车出口72.8万辆，环比增长9.3%，同比 增长48.5%，本月出口量为历史上首次单月出口规模超过70万辆。12月11日，中国汽车工业协会（以下 简称"中汽协"）公布了上述信息。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，相对于出口市场的"火爆"，汽车内销市场则相对平淡。相关数据显示，11 月汽车国内销量为270.1万辆，同比下降4.4%。 "可以看出，本月销量的增长主要是出口拉动的。"中汽协副秘书长陈士华表示，受多地汽车以旧换新补 贴政策陆续退出影响，国内市场不少消费者对明年新一轮补贴政策存在一定观望情绪，这使得11月汽车 内销终端市场承压。 出口市场"热" 中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会秘书长崔东树分析称，由于海外销售利润较高，"不出海就 出局"的趋势明显，今年汽车出口强势增长超出预期。他认为，下半年以来，中国汽车出口局面持续向 好，自主新能源的海外市场认可度不断提升，海外营销网络快速扩张，在部分海外市场销量增长态势良 好。与此同时，今年零公里二手车出口的热情也很高，这些因素共同刺激了汽车出口市场的增长。 汽车出口将成为2025年车市"答卷"中的最 ...

今年调节车市销量增速的重要政策是以旧换新补贴。截至10月22日，2025年汽车以旧换新补贴申请量突破千 万辆，前11个月申请量已达1120万辆。乘联分会认为，随着各地补贴的大面积暂停，11月的日均补贴规模降 到3万辆。 在报废更新、置换更新叠加新能源免征购置税等政策利好下，11月新能源车国内零售渗透率59.3%，较去年 同期提升7个百分点，再创新高。从细分市场来看，11月纯电动市场成为唯一的增长亮点，纯电动市场零售同 比增长9.2%，增程同比下降4.3%，插混同比下降2.8%，燃油车国内零售同比下降22%；新势力中的纯电动与 增程的结构占比，从去年11月的57%：43%变为73%：27%。 不过，乘联分会同时提示称，今年12月共有23个工作日，较去年同期多一天，较11月的20个工作日多3天，12 月生产销售时间相对充裕。受车购税免税到期政策的影响，消费者年末购车紧迫感更强，因而选择车型更考 虑提车进度。由于热销车型的购买排队，很多消费者转而购买平销车型。 年底翘尾行情没了？ 12月8日，乘联分会公布的最新数据显示，11月全国乘用车市场零售222.5万辆，同比下降8.1%，环比下降 1.1%。车市年底难现"翘尾 ...

Core Insights - China's automobile exports reached 5.616 million units from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [1] - New energy vehicle (NEV) exports surpassed 2 million units for the first time, totaling 2.014 million units, which accounts for 35.9% of total exports and represents a significant year-on-year growth of 90.4% [1] Monthly Performance - In October, NEV exports were 256,000 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 15.4% and a year-on-year growth of 99.9% [1] - Passenger NEV exports reached 250,000 units in October, with a month-on-month increase of 15.3% and a year-on-year increase of 100% [1] - Commercial NEV exports were 6,000 units in October, showing a month-on-month growth of 20.6% and a year-on-year increase of 26.7% [1] Cumulative Data - From January to October, cumulative passenger NEV exports totaled 1.944 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.3% [1] - Cumulative commercial NEV exports reached 70,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 130% [1] Market Segmentation - There is a notable difference between overseas and domestic markets, with plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) showing a significantly higher growth rate compared to pure electric vehicles (EVs) [1] - From January to October, pure electric vehicle exports were 1.296 million units, up 55% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid vehicle exports reached 718,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 220% [1] Company Performance - Chery exported 1.063 million vehicles in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, accounting for 18.9% of total exports [1] - BYD exported 789,000 vehicles in the same period, representing a year-on-year growth of 140% [1] - BYD plans to exceed 1.6 million vehicle exports by 2026 [1]

Core Insights - In October, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 20% [2] - NEV sales accounted for 51.6% of total new vehicle sales for the first time, indicating a significant milestone in market penetration [2] - The cumulative sales of NEVs from January to October reached 13.015 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 33.1% [3] NEV Market Performance - NEV sales penetration in the overall vehicle market surpassed 50% in October, while in the passenger vehicle segment, it had already exceeded 50% by July 2024 [2][3] - For the first ten months of 2024, NEV sales accounted for 46.7% of total new vehicle sales, while the domestic passenger NEV sales ratio reached 52.9% [3] Export Growth - NEV exports saw a remarkable increase, with October exports reaching 256,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 99.9% [3] - From January to October, NEV exports totaled 2.014 million units, up 90.4% compared to the previous year [3] - Plug-in hybrid vehicle exports grew significantly, with October exports of 90,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 270% [3] Domestic Sales Trends - Domestic NEV sales in October were 1.459 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [5] - Cumulatively, domestic NEV sales from January to October reached 10.929 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 25.7% [5] - Overall automotive market performance showed that total vehicle production and sales in October reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12.1% and 8.8% [5]

Core Insights - The domestic new car sales growth has exceeded 11% due to policies promoting vehicle trade-ins and scrappage, leading to a significant influx of used cars into the market [1] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of used cars reached 9.57 million units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2%, with total transaction value exceeding 600 billion yuan [1] - The auction format is increasingly being utilized to address the surplus of used cars, particularly for electric vehicles which are often sold in bulk [1] Used Car Auction Market - In 2024, traditional fuel vehicles accounted for over 1.11 million auction transactions, representing more than 90% of the market share, maintaining dominance in the auction market [1] - The auction volume of electric vehicle accident cars has seen a compound annual growth rate of 70% from 2019 to 2024, with expectations of at least a 50% growth rate over the next three years [2][5] Accident Vehicle Trends - Nearly 90% of accident vehicles are disposed of through auctions, with the auction volume of ordinary accident cars growing at a compound annual growth rate of 27% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 530,000 units in 2024 [4] - The auction volume of electric accident vehicles increased from 2,300 units in 2020 to 18,000 units in 2024, indicating a rapid growth in this segment [5] Pricing Dynamics - The average auction price for vehicles in 2024 was 40,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of over 11%, with the transaction value growth rate lagging behind the volume growth [7] - The market is experiencing a polarization in pricing, with vehicles priced below 50,000 yuan accounting for 78.86% of total transactions, while the share of vehicles priced at 200,000 yuan and above has decreased to 2.42% [7] Vehicle Age and Market Composition - The share of vehicles aged over six years has increased, with over 70% of total transactions involving high-mileage vehicles, contributing to the overall decline in average vehicle prices [7] - The average auction prices for different age categories show a downward trend, with vehicles over ten years old averaging 21,400 yuan [7] Future Outlook - The auction market for electric vehicles is expected to grow, with a shift towards more refined dismantling processes for accident vehicles, including battery recycling and repurposing [6] - As the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases, the volume of used electric vehicles entering the market is anticipated to rise, leading to changes in auction methods and service standards [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth of the used car market in China, driven by policies promoting vehicle replacement and the increasing volume of second-hand electric vehicles entering the market through auction formats [3][4]. Used Car Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative transaction of used cars in China reached 9.57 million units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2%, with a total transaction value exceeding 600 billion yuan [3]. - The auction format is becoming increasingly popular for disposing of used cars, particularly for electric vehicles, which are often sold in bulk [3][4]. Auction Market Dynamics - In 2024, traditional fuel vehicles accounted for over 1.11 million auction transactions, representing more than 90% of the market share, while the market share of plug-in hybrid vehicles is also rising [3][4]. - The auction volume of accident vehicles has been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 27% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 530,000 units in 2024 [6]. Electric Vehicle Auction Trends - The auction volume of electric vehicle accident cars has a compound growth rate of 70% from 2019 to 2024, with projections indicating that this will exceed 50% in the next three years [4][6]. - The number of electric accident vehicles auctioned increased from 2,300 units in 2020 to 18,000 units in 2024 [6]. Pricing Trends in Used Car Auctions - The average auction price for used vehicles in 2024 was 40,000 yuan per vehicle, reflecting a year-on-year decline of over 11% [9]. - The market is seeing a polarization in pricing, with vehicles priced below 50,000 yuan accounting for 78.86% of total transactions, while vehicles priced at 200,000 yuan and above have decreased to 2.42% of the market share [9][10]. Age and Condition of Vehicles - The share of vehicles aged over six years has increased, with over 70% of transactions involving older vehicles, contributing to the overall decline in average prices [9]. - The average auction price for vehicles aged 10 years or more dropped to 21,400 yuan, indicating a trend towards older vehicles in the market [9][10]. Future Outlook - As the demand for used electric vehicles increases, the auction methods are expected to evolve, potentially moving from bulk sales to individual sales depending on vehicle conditions [10].

Core Insights - The auction growth rate for electric vehicle accident cars is conservatively expected to exceed 50% from 2025 to 2028, driven by the increasing volume of used cars entering the market due to trade-in and scrapping policies [1][2] Auction Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of used cars in China reached 9.57 million units, with a transaction value exceeding 600 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 2% [1] - Traditional fuel vehicles dominated the auction market in 2024, with over 1.11 million units sold, accounting for more than 90% of the total market share [1] - The auction market is increasingly utilizing a "packaged" auction format for new energy vehicles, with packages often containing dozens to hundreds of similar vehicles [1] Accident Vehicle Auction Trends - The auction volume of accident vehicles has been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 27% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 530,000 units in 2024 [3] - Electric vehicle accident cars have seen a significant rise in auction volume, with a compound annual growth rate of 70% from 2019 to 2024, increasing from 2,300 units in 2020 to 18,000 units in 2024 [3][4] Market Dynamics and Pricing - The average auction price for vehicles in the national market dropped by over 11% year-on-year in 2024, with the average price being 40,000 yuan per vehicle [5] - The market is experiencing a polarization in pricing, with vehicles priced below 50,000 yuan accounting for 78.86% of total transactions, while those priced at 200,000 yuan or above have decreased to 2.42% of the market share [5] - The average auction price for different vehicle types in 2024 was 38,700 yuan for fuel vehicles, 46,400 yuan for pure electric vehicles, and 61,100 yuan for hybrid models, all showing a decline compared to 2023 [6] Future Projections - The auction market for electric vehicle accident cars is expected to reach at least 50,000 units by 2029, with a growing trend towards the disassembly and sale of key components from accident vehicles [4] - The demand for dismantling accident vehicles is projected to grow significantly, with the auction volume for dismantled vehicles increasing from 5,400 units in 2020 to 24,500 units in 2024, and expected to approach a 40% growth rate by 2028 [4]

Core Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) exports exceeded expectations, with plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles becoming new growth points, particularly in the pickup truck segment [1][5] - The total export volume of Chinese automobiles reached 5.71 million units from January to September 2025, marking a 21% increase year-on-year, with September alone seeing exports of 763,000 units, up 26% year-on-year [1][6] - The export of Chinese NEVs in the same period reached 2.32 million units, a 52% increase compared to the same period in 2024, significantly higher than the 22% growth rate in 2024 [1][5] Export Performance - The top ten countries for Chinese automobile exports in September 2025 included Russia (69,126 units), Mexico (48,636 units), and the UAE (47,700 units), with notable increases in exports to the UAE and Mexico [2] - In the first nine months of 2025, the cumulative export volume to the top ten countries included Mexico (410,739 units), the UAE (367,796 units), and Russia (357,708 units) [2] NEV Export Trends - The top ten countries for NEV exports in September 2025 were Belgium (20,869 units), the UAE (20,859 units), and the UK (19,521 units), with significant growth in exports to the UAE and the UK [3] - From January to September 2025, the top ten countries for NEV exports included Belgium (223,532 units), the Philippines (153,386 units), and the UK (153,265 units), with the Philippines showing the highest growth in exports [3] Historical Context - China's automobile exports have shown a consistent upward trend since breaking the million-unit mark in 2021, with a growth rate of over 50% in 2022 and 2023, and a projected growth rate of around 20% for 2024-2025 [5][6] - The export structure has shifted, with passenger vehicles increasingly dominating the export market, reaching 85% by 2023, while the share of commercial vehicles has declined [11][16] Vehicle Type Performance - In 2025, the export of light trucks and passenger cars showed strong growth, particularly in the context of a sluggish domestic fuel truck market [12][14] - The export of gasoline vehicles has seen a decline, while the export of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles has surged, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [15][16]