Core Insights - In July, China's retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while the cumulative retail sales from January to July totaled 12.728 million units, up 10.1% year-on-year [2] - The growth rate in July was lower compared to the 15% increase seen from March to June, attributed to a gap in subsidy funding and rising consumer costs [2] - The market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) showed a retail sales figure of 987,000 units in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.0% [4] Market Performance - The overall passenger car market is experiencing strong demand despite the traditional summer slowdown, with July's sales indicating resilience [2] - The price war in the car market has eased, with only 17 models seeing price reductions in July, compared to 23 in the same month last year [3] - The promotional intensity for NEVs remained high at 10.2%, while traditional fuel vehicles maintained a promotional level of 23.4% [3] New Energy Vehicles - NEVs accounted for a retail penetration rate of 54.0% in July, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic brands leading at 74.9% [4] - Pure electric vehicles (EVs) saw a significant year-on-year growth of 24.5%, reclaiming market dominance over plug-in hybrids and range-extended vehicles [4] - The market share of domestic brand NEVs remained stable at 70%, while mainstream joint venture brands saw a decline to 3.6% [4] Brand Performance - Domestic brands continued to grow, with July retail sales reaching 1.21 million units, a 14% increase year-on-year, and a market share of 65.9% [5] - Joint venture brands experienced slight growth, with retail sales of 450,000 units in July, but market shares generally declined [5] - Luxury brands faced challenges, with July retail sales dropping to 170,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 20% [6] Export Trends - In July, total passenger car exports reached 475,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with NEVs making up 44.7% of the total exports [6] - Domestic brand exports reached 415,000 units, reflecting a 34% year-on-year growth [6] Future Outlook - The upcoming launch of new models in August is expected to enhance market supply and stimulate retail sales, particularly for fuel vehicles [6]

Group 1 - The National 7 emission standard, known as the "strictest environmental regulation in history," is currently under development and is expected to be released in 2027 and implemented in 2029 [2][11] - The National 7 standard will significantly impact both traditional and new energy vehicles, with major changes noted in the light-duty vehicle standards [3][4] - The standard aims to achieve six goals, including coordinated control of pollutants and greenhouse gases, enhanced real-world emission management, and the introduction of smart monitoring for vehicle emissions [4][6] Group 2 - The National 7 standard introduces stricter testing requirements compared to the previous National 6 standard, including the inclusion of new energy vehicles in emission regulations [5][9] - Key changes in the National 7 standard include the introduction of a flexible limit system and fleet average emission control, as well as enhanced monitoring of evaporative emissions and non-tailpipe particulate matter [6][8] - The standard sets ambitious target values for 2030, aiming for significant reductions in pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from passenger and light commercial vehicles [7][10] Group 3 - The National 7 standard incorporates new testing requirements for hybrid vehicles, emphasizing the need for rigorous evaluation of their emissions performance [6][9] - The standard mandates real-time monitoring of new energy vehicle emissions through remote OBD data reporting and strengthens software anti-tampering requirements [9][10] - The weight of electric vehicle batteries, which can significantly impact particulate emissions from braking and tire wear, is also addressed in the context of the new standards [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) industry demonstrated robust growth in the first half of 2025, with production and sales reaching approximately 7 million units, reflecting year-on-year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively, and a market penetration rate of 44.3% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, domestic sales of NEVs reached about 5.88 million units, a year-on-year growth of 35.5%, while exports surged to 1.06 million units, marking a staggering increase of 75.2% [2] - The dual-driven demand from both domestic and international markets indicates a strong resilience and competitive edge of the Chinese NEV industry on a global scale [2] Group 2: Battery Industry Growth - The NEV market expansion has significantly boosted the power battery industry, with cumulative production of batteries reaching approximately 697 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 60.4%, and sales hitting about 659 GWh, up 63.3% [3] - Power batteries accounted for 485.5 GWh of the total sales, representing 73.7% of the market, with a year-on-year growth of 51.6% [3] Group 3: Structural Changes in Battery Installation - The commercial vehicle segment emerged as a surprising growth highlight, with domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles reaching 354,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%, and exports of 49,000 units, which skyrocketed by 230% [4] - The demand for power batteries in commercial vehicles is driven by the dual push from the logistics industry's low-carbon transition and urban public transport electrification policies [4] - The trend of battery type differentiation is intensifying, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for 81.4% of total installations, growing by 73% year-on-year, while ternary batteries saw a decline of 10.8% [4][5] Group 4: Export Performance and Globalization - Plug-in hybrid vehicle exports reached 390,000 units, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 210%, significantly outpacing the growth of pure electric vehicles [5] - The global demand for transitional electrification solutions, particularly in Europe, is driving the growth of plug-in hybrid models, presenting differentiated growth opportunities for supporting battery companies [5] - Cumulative exports of power and other batteries reached 127.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, with power battery exports at 81.6 GWh, accounting for 64.1% of total exports, and growing by 26.5% [5] Group 5: Overall Industry Outlook - The collaborative growth of the NEV and power battery industries in the first half of 2025 is a result of technological advancements and market maturation, benefiting from the global energy transition [6] - The industry must remain vigilant against potential risks such as overcapacity and raw material price fluctuations, while continuing to innovate in emerging battery technologies like solid-state and sodium-ion batteries [7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid vehicle market in China, focusing on sales performance and market dynamics in the first four months of the year [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Electric Vehicle Sales Growth - In the first four months of the year, pure electric vehicle sales increased by 600,000 units year-on-year, with three main contributing factors: - Vehicles priced below 100,000 CNY contributed 43% of the growth [1] - New quality supply in the 100,000 to 150,000 CNY range contributed 30% [1] - Xiaomi's contribution accounted for 15% [1] - The growth in vehicles priced below 100,000 CNY is primarily driven by the "old-for-new" policy, which offers incentives of 20,000 CNY for scrapping old vehicles or 15,000 CNY for other incentives [1][2]. Hybrid Vehicle Market Performance - Hybrid vehicle sales saw a modest year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points, with an absolute increase of only 200,000 units in the first four months [3]. - Key factors affecting hybrid sales include: - BYD's significant market share in the plug-in hybrid segment, which experienced negative sales growth due to consumer hesitance towards paid features in smart driving [3]. - The transition of models at Seres, leading to a decline of 40,000 units in sales [3]. Supply Dynamics - The supply of electric vehicles is expected to be concentrated, particularly in the 200,000 CNY and above segment, with new models from Xiaomi and the Ideal A series expected to launch in July [4]. - The market is seeing a concentration of new supply in both the below and above 200,000 CNY segments, with several new models from brands like Geely and Great Wall Motors expected to enter the market [5]. Market Demand and Inventory - Overall vehicle sales in the first four months showed a positive growth of 5.5% year-on-year, with a projected annual growth rate of approximately 7.6% based on historical data [6]. - The industry inventory level is around 2.2 months, which is considered reasonable. BYD has a slightly higher inventory of 2.5 months compared to other brands [6]. Export Performance - Chinese brands experienced a 10% increase in export growth in the first four months, driven mainly by BYD's performance in the plug-in hybrid segment [7]. - Future export growth will depend on demand in markets like Russia and BYD's continued expansion in overseas markets [7]. Additional Important Insights - The "old-for-new" policy is a significant driver for the growth of lower-priced electric vehicles, indicating a strong government influence on market dynamics [1][2]. - The hybrid vehicle segment is facing challenges due to consumer behavior and inventory issues, which may affect future growth [3][6]. - The concentration of new vehicle supply in both segments suggests a competitive landscape that could impact pricing and market share dynamics [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing significant growth, with both production and sales surpassing 15 million units for the first time in the first half of 2025, driven by favorable macroeconomic policies and strong demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) [1][2][3]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, total automotive sales reached 15.653 million units, marking an 11.4% year-on-year increase, while domestic sales were 12.57 million units, up 11.7% [2]. - The automotive market has shown robust growth, with multiple economic indicators achieving double-digit growth year-on-year [1]. Group 2: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEV production and sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [3]. - NEVs accounted for 44.3% of total new car sales, a significant increase from 35.2% in the same period last year [3]. Group 3: Domestic Brand Performance - Domestic brand passenger car sales totaled 9.27 million units, a 25% increase year-on-year, with a market share of 68.5%, up 6.6 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - The retail market share of domestic brands in the passenger car segment reached 64%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Export Growth - Total automotive exports reached 3.083 million units, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, with NEV exports at 1.06 million units, surging 75.2% [5]. - The export of plug-in hybrid vehicles grew significantly, with 390,000 units exported, representing a year-on-year increase of 210% [6][7]. Group 5: Technological Advancements and Market Position - China holds 68% of global patents for plug-in hybrid technology, indicating its leadership in innovation within this sector [6]. - The complete supply chain for hybrid technology in China, including battery and motor production, is more cost-effective than international competitors by 20%-30% [7].

Group 1 - BMW plans to reintroduce range-extended technology with the iX5 in 2026, expecting a combined range of 1000 km, and will apply this technology to the sixth generation iX3 and seventh generation iX7 models [2][4] - GAC Toyota announced plans to produce range-extended models, including versions of the Highlander and Sienna, while SAIC Volkswagen has introduced the ID.ERA concept car as its first range-extended model [2][5] - The market for range-extended vehicles is experiencing significant growth, with a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in sales, while plug-in hybrid vehicles are showing signs of slowing growth [3][4] Group 2 - The sales of range-extended vehicles have surged, with a reported 111% year-on-year growth in 2023 and an expected 167% increase in 2024, contrasting with the single-digit growth of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [12][18] - The shift towards range-extended technology is driven by changing consumer preferences, with buyers favoring vehicles that offer both electric and fuel options for flexibility [10][14] - Range-extended vehicles are perceived to have better performance and user experience compared to plug-in hybrids, as they are fully driven by electric motors and alleviate concerns about range anxiety [8][9] Group 3 - The automotive industry is witnessing a strategic pivot towards range-extended technology, with companies like Ideal, Leap Motor, and Aito achieving significant sales growth in this segment [5][13] - The simplicity of range-extended vehicle structures helps reduce manufacturing costs and vehicle weight, enhancing their appeal in the market [9][14] - The introduction of solid-state batteries is anticipated to further enhance the performance and appeal of range-extended vehicles, potentially revolutionizing the market [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive import and export landscape is undergoing a historic reversal, with exports significantly outpacing imports for the first time in over a decade [1][4]. Import Market Trends - China's automotive import volume has been in a continuous decline since peaking at 1.43 million units in 2014, with a projected total of 700,000 units in 2024, marking a 12% year-on-year decrease and a 51% reduction from the peak [2]. - In the first five months of 2025, imports fell to 180,000 units, a 33% decline year-on-year, representing only 6% of the export volume [1][2]. - Traditional import markets, particularly from Germany and Japan, continue to dominate but are experiencing significant volume declines, with luxury brands like Rolls-Royce and Bentley seeing drops exceeding 20% [2]. Export Market Growth - The export market is experiencing robust growth, with a 16% year-on-year increase in the first five months of 2025, reaching 2.83 million units [1][4]. - The average annual growth rate for exports has exceeded 50% since 2021, with 2023 exports surpassing 5.22 million units and projections of 6.41 million units for 2024 [4][5]. - The share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in total exports has risen from 27% in 2020 to 46% in 2025, with significant growth in the export of electric vehicles [4][5]. Challenges in the Export Market - Despite strong export figures, the industry faces challenges, including inventory pressures due to market fluctuations in Russia and competition from Western automakers advancing hybrid technology [6][7]. - The decline in export average prices indicates ongoing challenges in the high-end market segment, despite improvements in overall export quality [7]. Future Outlook - The dual strategy of "technology + localization" is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese automotive brands in international markets, with projections of 5.7 million passenger vehicles exported by 2025 [9]. - Companies are increasingly establishing overseas production facilities to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance market presence, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and South America [8][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic automotive market is experiencing active performance, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth. In May, domestic car sales reached 2.135 million units, a month-on-month increase of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. Sales of Chinese brand passenger cars grew by 22.6% year-on-year [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, with NEV sales accounting for 51.3% of total domestic car sales in May. The growth in NEV sales is primarily driven by state subsidy policies [2] - Exports of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) are rapidly increasing, with May exports reaching 551,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 6.6% and a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. NEV exports totaled 212,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120% [3] - The automotive industry is shifting its competitive focus towards the field of intelligence, driven by the dual forces of policy stimulation and technological innovation. The advantages of domestic brands in intelligence are significant contributors to their sales growth [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - In May, domestic car sales reached 2.135 million units, with a month-on-month growth of 3% and a year-on-year growth of 10.3%. Chinese brand passenger car sales were 1.622 million units, up 22.6% year-on-year. NEV sales were 1.095 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%, representing 51.3% of total domestic sales [2] - From January to May, domestic car sales totaled 10.258 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, with Chinese brand passenger car sales at 7.562 million units, up 26.3% year-on-year [2] Export Performance - In May, total automotive exports were 551,000 units, with NEV exports at 212,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 120%. Among NEVs, pure electric vehicle exports reached 138,000 units, up 79.8% year-on-year [3] - From January to May, total automotive exports were 2.49 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with NEV exports at 855,000 units, up 64.6% year-on-year [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of hybridization and the long-term presence of internal combustion engines in hybrid forms. It highlights the potential of domestic automotive supply chain leaders in various components, such as川环科技 (Chuanhuan Technology) and 宁波高发 (Ningbo Gaofa) [10]

推 撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / rhomotion.com, www.carscoops.com, electriccarsreport.com 尽管电动汽车在2024年没有像一些人所期望的那样迅猛增长，但2025年开局全球销量势头要强劲得 多。 新数据显示，在全球所有主要市场，电动汽车的销量都在创纪录增长。这种势头很明显，不过随着 时间的推进，特朗普政府出台的政策变动，尤其是削减补贴和新的关税政策，可能会开始抑制这种 增长势头。 近日，电动汽车情报研究机构Rho Motion公布，2025年3月全球电动汽车（纯电动汽车+插混汽车） 销量为170万辆，2025年第一季度销量为410万辆。与2024年3月相比，2025年3月电动汽车市场增长 了29%，与2025年2月相比增长了40%。 这一增长主要得益于中国和欧洲市场的持续强劲势头。尽管增长率与前几个月持平，但地缘政治因 素已开始影响各地区的表现——尤其是在北美地区。世界其他地区的一季度销量增长了27%，达到 约30万辆。 Rho Motion数据经理查尔斯·莱斯特（Charles Lester）评论道："一季度，尽管形势动荡不安，但全 ...

本文约 3 5 0 0 字，推荐阅读时长 1 5 分钟，欢迎关注新财富公众号。 4月2日，美国对全球贸易伙伴加征"对等关税"，国际资本市场经历了最动 荡的一周。尽管在现在和可预见的未来，关税还将出现暂缓、豁免和反 复，但潘多拉的盒子一旦打开，再想关上就是另外一回事了。美元的信用 体系严重崩塌，中方与欧盟、东盟交往密切，欧元和日元走高，国际新秩 序正在悄然形成…… 此前，我国国务院总理李强已于4月8日同欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话，随即，我国 商务部部长王文涛同欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈。新闻通 稿中提到： " 双方同意尽快启动磋商，深入讨论市场准入相关问题，为企业创造更有利 的营商环境，并立即开展电动汽车价格承诺谈判，以及讨论中欧汽车产业投资合作问 题 " 。 此次欧盟发言人的表态进一步确认了"最低进口价格"这一机制方案，也就是说，双方将 设定一个价格阈值，若中国车企以高于该阈值的价格销售电动汽车，则可以享受与本土 企业同等的税收待遇。 根据最新消息，中欧双方团队已经开始接触。 1 肉眼可见的下滑 欧盟对中国电动车的关税政策始于2 0 2 3年9月冯德莱恩突然发动的反补贴调查。 经过一 ...