Summary of Conference Call on New Year Holiday Travel Data Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the aviation and tourism industry during the 2026 New Year holiday period, highlighting significant growth in travel demand and pricing dynamics [2][4][12]. Key Points on Aviation Industry - **Travel Demand Growth**: During the 2026 New Year holiday, overall travel volume increased by 20% year-on-year, with rail travel up by 54%, road travel by 17%, and civil aviation by 13% [2]. - **Ticket Price Increase**: Domestic flight ticket prices rose approximately 10% year-on-year, with an overall increase of about 13% when including fuel surcharges. This price elasticity is attributed to strong demand and improved supply-demand dynamics [2][3]. - **Recovery of the Aviation Market**: The aviation market is expected to continue its recovery, with passenger traffic increasing by 5%-6% year-on-year, domestic traffic up by 4 percentage points, and international traffic exceeding 20% growth [2][6]. - **Optimistic Outlook for 2026**: The aviation industry is projected to maintain a favorable supply-demand balance, with fleet growth remaining low and demand continuing to recover. This is expected to enhance ticket prices and profitability, potentially surpassing pre-pandemic levels [7][8]. - **Positive Seasonal Trends**: The strong performance during the New Year holiday is expected to positively influence demand for the upcoming Spring Festival and summer peak travel seasons, with airlines likely to adopt proactive revenue management strategies [8][10]. Key Points on Tourism Industry - **Tourism Sector Performance**: The overall tourism industry exceeded expectations during the New Year holiday, with visitor numbers and total spending both showing year-on-year growth. Duty-free sales saw a significant increase of 52% compared to the previous year [11][12]. - **Future Growth Drivers**: The tourism market in 2026 is anticipated to benefit from increased family travel, inbound tourism, and the aging population's travel needs. These factors are expected to drive growth in the sector [12]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Traditional airlines with strong route networks and customer bases, such as Air China, are recommended for investment due to their potential for profitability and valuation increases in the context of the aviation super cycle [11]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The aviation industry's recovery is supported by a favorable supply-demand relationship and the ongoing marketization of ticket pricing, which is expected to enhance revenue potential during peak seasons [5][7]. - **Sectoral Performance Variability**: Different segments within the tourism and retail sectors are experiencing varied growth rates, with some companies benefiting significantly from recent tax reforms and market conditions [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, emphasizing the optimistic outlook for both the aviation and tourism industries as they recover and adapt to changing market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines is the only flag carrier in China and has entered the top tier of global aviation transport companies, with a broad international route network and a balanced domestic and international presence [1][2] Company Overview - China National Airlines was established in October 2002 through the merger of China International Airlines, China Aviation Corporation, and China Southwest Airlines [2] - The company primarily engages in air passenger services, with passenger business accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue under normal circumstances, projected to be 91% in 2024 [2] - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, with a gross profit margin of 5.11% [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue is projected at 129.826 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%, with a gross profit margin of 7.06% [2] Industry Insights - Over the past 15 years, the aviation passenger transport volume has increased by 172.8%, with ticket prices gradually becoming market-driven [3] - The three major airlines in China (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) accounted for 62.64% of total transport turnover in 2024 [3] - Domestic passenger transport volume is expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.86%, marking a historical high, while cargo transport volume is projected at 8.983 million tons, up 22.15% [3] - Key factors influencing the industry include: - Aircraft supply: The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet is showing a "step-down" trend, affected by global supply chain disruptions and reduced delivery capabilities of major aircraft manufacturers [3] - Travel demand: There is still room for improvement in per capita flight frequency in China compared to developed countries, alongside a stable increase in per capita GDP and a booming tourism market [3] - Oil prices and exchange rates: These are critical factors affecting airline profitability, with the average price of aviation kerosene in the first ten months of 2025 at $86.01 per barrel, down 10.90% year-on-year [3] Valuation - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 174.715 billion yuan, 188.020 billion yuan, and 205.245 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 7.6%, and 9.2% respectively [4] - Expected net profits attributable to shareholders are 1.561 billion yuan, 6.503 billion yuan, and 10.265 billion yuan for the same period, with EPS of 0.09, 0.37, and 0.59 yuan per share [4] - Price-to-book ratios are projected to be 3.2, 2.8, and 2.3 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

港股航空股逆势上涨，其中，中国东方航空涨3.6%刷新阶段新高，年内累计涨幅达65%，美兰空港涨超 1%，中国国航、中国南方航空涨0.6%。 消息上，近期航司机场发布三季报，其中三季度国航归母净利润同比减少11%，东航归母净利润同比增 加34%，南航归母净利润同比增加20%。 有机构指出，"反内卷"将保障Q4淡季减亏与全年扭亏。中国航空具长逻辑，考虑票价市场化，需求稳 健增长与客源结构优化将驱动2026年航司盈利中枢开启上升。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 4.310 3.61% | | 00357 | 美兰空港 | 10.620 1.14% | | 00753 | 中国国航 | 5.900 0.51% | | 01055 | 中国南方航空股 | 4.840 0.62% | ...

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is focusing on the recovery of business travel, with a high passenger load factor maintained during the post-holiday off-peak season. Domestic ticket prices continue to rise year-on-year [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration is strictly controlling the growth of flight slots, with a projected 1.6% reduction in flight slots for the winter season of 2025/26 compared to 2024/25, aligning with expectations of continued slot control [1] - Domestic flight slots are reduced by 1.8%, while international slots decrease by 1.6%. Domestic airlines are increasing flights by 1.8%, while foreign airlines are reducing flights by 7.2% [1] Group 2: Oil Shipping Industry - The VLCC-TCE rate on the Middle East to China route remains above $80,000, with shipowners feeling optimistic. China's countermeasures against the U.S. may lead to a preference for non-U.S. vessels, potentially reducing effective shipping capacity and increasing freight rates [2] - The outlook for oil shipping remains positive, with expectations for supply and demand to continue improving over the next two years. Profits for oil tankers are projected to reach new highs in Q3 2025 [2] Group 3: China-U.S. Trade Relations - China's countermeasures against U.S. 301 investigations aim to maintain fair competition in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets, encouraging the U.S. to correct its discriminatory practices [3] - Exemptions for Chinese-built vessels in the countermeasures are expected to enhance long-term confidence among Chinese shipping owners, preserving China's competitive edge in shipbuilding [3] - The countermeasures will directly impact U.S. shipping companies, with potential short-term disruptions but no significant increase in industry costs anticipated. Compensation measures may be introduced to alleviate operational pressures on Chinese shipping companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is experiencing a rise in stock prices, driven by increased demand for domestic and international flights during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, with significant growth in ticket bookings compared to last year [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the report, China National Aviation (00753) increased by 4.82% to HKD 5.44, Eastern Airlines (00670) rose by 3.74% to HKD 3.05, and Southern Airlines (01055) gained 2.65% to HKD 3.88 [1] Group 2: Ticket Booking Trends - As of September 8, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays exceeded 3.26 million, with an average daily booking increase of over 26% compared to the same period last year [1] - International flight ticket bookings surpassed 1.16 million, with a daily booking increase of approximately 15% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Market Insights - According to Guotai Junan Securities, following significant events in early September, the Beijing market has seen a rapid recovery in both volume and price, with active demand from business travelers [1] - Anticipating the impact of major meetings in October, business travel demand is expected to shift forward, supporting continued positive trends in volume and pricing through mid to late September [1] - It is projected that airline profitability will continue to grow year-on-year in Q3 2025, with expectations of reduced losses in the off-peak season due to a price war in Q4 2024, leading to an overall industry turnaround [1] - The long-term outlook for the aviation industry remains positive, with expectations for an increase in profitability as business travel demand recovers and market pricing becomes more competitive [1]

Industry Overview - The transportation sector experienced an overall decline of -0.47% from August 11 to August 16, ranking 25th among 31 SW primary industries, while the CSI 300 index rose by +2.37% during the same period [2] Subsector Performance - The performance of various subsectors within transportation during the week was as follows: - Warehousing and logistics: +1.89% - Airport: +1.13% - Public transport: +0.82% - Port: -0.09% - Express delivery: -2.22% - Road freight: -0.86% - Cross-border logistics: -1.01% - Railway: -1.85% - Shipping: -0.79% - Highway: -0.62% [2][1] Airline Sector Insights - By June 2025, major listed airlines in China showed recovery rates in domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) compared to June 2019 as follows: - Air China: 150.62% - China Southern Airlines: 119.55% - China Eastern Airlines: 118.06% - Hainan Airlines: 91.71% - Spring Airlines: 166.49% - International and regional ASK recovery rates were: - Air China: 93.36% - China Southern Airlines: 92.68% - China Eastern Airlines: 110.76% - Hainan Airlines: 69.95% - Spring Airlines: 254.76% [2][3] Oil and Currency Trends - As of August 15, 2025, Brent crude oil was priced at $65.85 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of -1.11% and a year-on-year decrease of -18.74% [3] - The exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar was 7.1371, showing a slight appreciation of 0.02% week-on-week and 0.04% year-on-year [3] Shipping and Port Metrics - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was reported at 1460 points, down -1.98% week-on-week and down -55.50% year-on-year [4] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) stood at 1193 points, with a week-on-week decrease of -0.62% and a year-on-year decrease of -42.45% [4] Freight and Logistics Performance - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was at 2044 points, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of -0.34% but a year-on-year increase of +20.80% [5] - In June 2025, railway passenger volume reached 373 million, up +3.61% year-on-year, while road passenger volume was 948 million, down -3.72% year-on-year [5] Express Delivery Sector - In July 2025, the express delivery industry generated revenue of 120.64 billion Yuan, an increase of +8.90% year-on-year, with a total business volume of 16.4 billion pieces, up +15.10% year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The airline sector is expected to benefit from the acceleration of international flight schedules and domestic demand recovery, with potential for increased profitability for airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [6] - The airport sector is anticipated to see improvements in passenger flow and commercial revenue driven by macroeconomic recovery and policy support [6] - The cross-border logistics sector is positioned to benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, with companies like Huamao Logistics recommended for investment [7] - The express delivery sector remains promising due to the growth of e-commerce and the potential for market share gains among leading companies [8]

Group 1 - As of July 31, 2025, the stock price of Juneyao Airlines is 12.24 yuan, down by 0.39 yuan, representing a decline of 3.09% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day reached 410 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.52% [1] - Juneyao Airlines operates primarily from Shanghai and focuses on domestic and international passenger and cargo transportation [1] Group 2 - Research reports indicate that short-term demand fluctuations do not affect the long-term logic of the aviation industry, with market-driven ticket pricing and supply-demand improvements expected to drive industry profitability upward [1] - The growth rate of aviation supply is slowing, suggesting that the supply-demand relationship in the industry may further optimize over the next two years [1]

Summary of the Airline Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Chinese airline industry, highlighting a potential super cycle driven by demand and changes in oil pricing dynamics [1][4][44]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Super Cycle Potential**: The Chinese airline industry is expected to enter a super cycle due to a shift in oil pricing logic and OPEC+ strategy adjustments, leading to lower oil prices and increased profit margins for airlines [1][4]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The focus should shift from short-term oil prices and exchange rates to long-term growth logic in the airline sector to identify investment opportunities in A-shares and H-shares [1][4]. 3. **Profitability Challenges**: Despite high passenger load factors from 2017 to 2019, net profit margins were low (3%-5%) due to non-marketized ticket pricing and rapid fleet expansion [5][6]. 4. **Strategic Shifts**: Airlines are transitioning from a price-first strategy to a seat occupancy-first strategy, which may lead to lower-than-expected annual losses [1][10]. 5. **Supply and Demand Recovery**: The recovery of supply and demand is slower than anticipated, with international capacity affecting domestic market balance. However, ticket pricing reforms and slowed fleet growth are expected to drive a super cycle in the next one to two years [1][8][11]. 6. **Investment Opportunities**: Airlines with high-quality networks and customer bases are recommended for investment, as they are likely to benefit from the ongoing recovery and demand growth [2][35]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Long-term Growth Logic**: The long-term growth logic is crucial for attracting investor patience, as current valuations in A-shares and H-shares are not particularly cheap without this perspective [4][13]. 2. **Demand Drivers**: The demand for family travel and business travel remains strong, supported by demographic trends, ensuring steady growth in the coming years [2][32][44]. 3. **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Airlines are showing a decreased willingness to invest in fleet expansion due to persistent airspace bottlenecks and low expected returns on new aircraft investments [15][16][43]. 4. **Oil Price Impact**: A 13% decrease in oil prices could potentially increase annual profits for major airlines by approximately 4 billion yuan, significantly enhancing profitability [39][42]. 5. **Market Recovery**: The recovery of international routes is gaining momentum, aided by visa-free policies, which are expected to further improve the overall profitability of the airline industry [33][34]. Conclusion The Chinese airline industry is poised for a significant recovery and potential super cycle, driven by strategic shifts in pricing, demand growth, and improved profitability. Investors are encouraged to focus on airlines with strong networks and customer bases, as well as to consider the long-term growth potential of the sector amidst ongoing challenges.