2026年春运跟踪：春节假期客流增幅提升，航空客流增速继续居前 春运过半，截至2月22日(春运前21天)全社会人员流动量农历同比增长6.0%，其中公路+6.0%，铁路 +5.3%，航空+6.0%。1)节前(2/2-2/14)：人员流动量同比增长3.1%。2026年春节假期前有6个工作日，导 致节前拼假效应弱于往年，客流高峰于除夕前五天出现并持续，其中公路与铁路客流同比增速逐步提 升。2)节中(2/15-2/23)：人员流动量同比增长9.7%，三种主要交通方式客流同比增速均较节前明显提 升。2026年春节假期调休9天，假期再度延长保障探亲与出游需求继续两旺，节中二次出行成规模，广 东/海南/云南/广西等沿海及旅游城市热度居前。3)节后(2/24-3/13)：预计节后拼假效应亦将弱于往年， 返程客流将较2025年同期相对集中。 航空客流：春运加班相对有限，其中春节假期客流增速较节前提升 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，中国航空业将迎"超级周期"，建议布局航空长逻辑。"十四 五"票价实现市场化，航空供给进入低增时代，未来需求持续增长将驱动2026年供需继续向好并开启票 价与盈利上行，且未来高景气的可持续将超 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，春运过半，截至2月22日(春运前21天)全社会人员流动量农历 同比增长6.0%，其中公路+6.0%，铁路+5.3%，航空+6.0%。2026年春运前21天，估算国内航司客座率 同比上升约1-2pct；估算国内裸票价(不含燃油附加费)同比上升约3-4%；考虑2026年2月航油价格同比下 降13%，估算国内扣油票价(含油票价扣除人均燃油成本)同比上升，意味着航司毛利率应同比提升。假 期二次出行旺盛，航司客座率创新高，票价同比升幅明显扩大，预计节后票价同比上升趋势有望继续向 好。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2026年春运跟踪：春节假期客流增幅提升，航空客流增速继续居前 节后(2/24-3/13)：预计节后拼假效应亦将弱于往年，返程客流将较2025年同期相对集中。 航空客流：春运加班相对有限，其中春节假期客流增速较节前提升 2026年春运前21天，民航日均客运量约239万人，农历同比增长6.0%，增速符合局方预期。2026年春运 民航加班较为有限，且局方严控干线市场航司增加与客运增班。根据航班管家统计，春运前21天全国日 均实际客运执飞航班同比增长近5%，其中国内与国际航线增幅较 ...

春节假期出行旺盛，航空票价升幅扩大 [Table_Industry] 航空 ——2026 年"春运"系列报告之（四） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | 本报告导读： 2026 年春运需求旺盛，航空客流增幅领跑，且客座率票价同比上升。其中，春节假 期票价升幅扩大，节后趋势或继续向好。叠加油价降低，料春运航司盈利同比改善。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 航空《节前将现客流高峰，票价趋势有望向好》 2026.02.14 航空《春运客流逐步启动，官方预期再创新高》 2026.02.02 航空《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需求旺盛》 2026.01.23 航空《春运预售开始启动，预计需求保持旺盛》 2026.01.20 航空《预计元旦假期出游旺盛 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The demand for civil aviation during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to be strong, with limited additional flights, leading to a gradual narrowing of passenger growth rates. Ticket prices are anticipated to continue rising year-on-year during and after the holiday period. Coupled with lower oil prices, airline profitability is expected to improve significantly compared to the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season officially began on February 2, with strong demand expected to set a new historical high for passenger flow. As of February 12, the overall flow of people increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with aviation leading at a growth rate of 5.4% [5][6]. Passenger Flow Analysis - Passenger flow for various transportation modes showed the following year-on-year growth rates: aviation at 5.4%, rail at 2.6%, and road at 2.2%. The first week of travel was impacted by adverse weather, but recovery was noted in the second week as conditions improved [5][6][8]. Airline Performance - Daily average passenger volume for civil aviation reached approximately 2.36 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The growth rate is in line with expectations, although the limited number of additional flights may lead to a slight decrease in growth rates as the holiday approaches [5][8]. Ticket Pricing Trends - The report estimates that domestic load factors increased by about 1 percentage point year-on-year, with ticket prices (excluding fuel surcharges) rising by approximately 1-2%. Despite a 13% year-on-year decrease in jet fuel prices, the net ticket prices are expected to rise, indicating an improvement in airline gross margins [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "super cycle" for the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand growth and a shift towards market-driven pricing. The upcoming peak season is expected to significantly enhance airline profitability, with the first quarter of 2026 likely to see industry-wide profitability [5][8]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends accumulating shares of key airlines, including Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, based on their expected performance and market conditions [5][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the extension of the Spring Festival holiday in 2026 will continue to support strong demand for family visits and travel [2] - The 2024 Spring Festival holiday will be adjusted to 8 days, extending by 1 day compared to 2023, and encouraging time off from New Year's Eve [2] - The 2025 Spring Festival holiday will increase by 1 day, optimizing the adjustment principles, and the significant "拼假" effect will be evident [2] Group 2 - The expected cross-regional personnel flow during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach 9.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3%, setting a new historical high [3] - The railway is expected to send 539 million passengers, a 5.0% increase year-on-year, with passenger capacity also increasing by 5.3% [3] - The civil aviation sector anticipates a passenger transport volume of 95 million, a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, with Southern Airlines and Eastern Airlines expecting daily flight increases of 4.2% and 3.6% respectively [3] Group 3 - The 2026 Spring Festival travel demand is expected to be strong, with a gradual increase in passenger flow and ticket prices maintaining year-on-year growth [4] - The pre-holiday week will see a mix of business and travel passengers, with a confirmed peak in passenger flow before the holiday [4] - The average domestic ticket price is expected to continue rising, supported by high passenger load factors and market-driven pricing [4] Group 4 - The Chinese aviation industry is anticipated to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven pricing and a recovery in demand and passenger structure [5] - The long-term logic will provide dual space for performance valuation, with continuous positive feedback from fundamentals and seasonal performance catalyzing market optimism [5] - Recommendations include increasing holdings in major airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5]

过去两年春节假期延长，2026年再延将保障探亲出游继续两旺 2024年春节假期调休8天，较2023年延长1天，并鼓励从除夕休息。从2025年开始，春节法定节假日增加 1天，并优化调休原则，明确从除夕开始放假8天;同时，2025年春节假期前后拼假效应显著。过去两年 春节假期延长，有效助力探亲出游两旺，春运客流屡创新高，且节中成规模二次出行填补传统低谷。据 交通运输部，2025年春运40天(1/14-2/22)全社会跨区域人员流动量超90亿人次，同比增长7%，再创历史 新高。其中，节前(前14天)由于春节较早而客流叠加集中;节中(8天)受益假期延长而二次出行旺盛，高 基数致票价同比下降;节后(后18天)返程客流分散且后移。2026年春节假期将调休9天，再度延长将保障 探亲出游需求继续旺盛。 2026年春运预期 国泰海通发布研报称，中国航空业将迎"超级周期"，建议布局航空长逻辑。"十四五"票价实现市场化， 航空供给进入低增时代，未来需求增长与客源结构恢复将驱动2026年开启票价与盈利上行，且高景气可 持续，中国航空业将迎来期待多年的"超级周期"。重点提示，长逻辑演绎将提供业绩估值双重空间，基 本面持续正反馈与旺季表 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the robust demand for air travel during the Spring Festival travel season, with expectations for continued strong demand in 2026 [5] - It highlights a structural change in demand within the Chinese aviation market, indicating a shift towards private travel while business travel remains below pre-pandemic levels [3] Group 1: 2025 Aviation Demand and Supply - By 2025, China's civil aviation passenger traffic is projected to grow by 5-6% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [3] - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high, while ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with estimates suggesting domestic ticket prices will be lower in 2025 than in 2024 and 2019 [3] - The aviation supply is entering a low-growth phase, with ongoing structural changes in demand affecting profitability [3] Group 2: 2025 Spring Festival Travel Review - During the 2025 Spring Festival travel period, over 9 billion people are expected to travel, marking a 7% increase year-on-year [4] - Air travel is estimated to grow by 7% year-on-year, with domestic air travel increasing by 4-5% and international travel seeing nearly a 30% rise [4] - Domestic ticket prices are projected to decrease by nearly 10% year-on-year, influenced by high base numbers and increased high-speed rail services [4] Group 3: 2026 Spring Festival Outlook - The 2026 Spring Festival travel period is anticipated to maintain strong demand, with significant increases in ticket sales observed during the pre-sale phase [5] - The article notes that the peak travel days will likely occur before and after the holiday, with high load factors and market-driven ticket pricing benefiting airline revenue management [5] - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven pricing and structural recovery in demand, suggesting a positive outlook for profitability [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry has maintained strong private demand over the past three years, with expectations for continued robust demand during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, which has already begun pre-sales [1] - The aviation supply in China is entering a low growth era, with structural changes in demand being a core issue. From 2023 to 2025, the demand for air travel is expected to recover rapidly, with private demand remaining strong while business travel remains below 2019 levels [1] - The overall passenger flow in China's civil aviation is estimated to grow by 5-6% year-on-year in 2025, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [1] - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high in 2025, while ticket prices remain at historical lows, with estimates indicating that domestic ticket prices including fuel will be lower than in 2024 and 2019 [1] - The industry’s profitability has not yet recovered, primarily due to the low proportion of business travel compared to 2019, leading airlines to prioritize load factors and adopt a price-for-volume strategy [1] Group 1 - The 2025 Spring Festival travel season saw a record high in passenger flow, with over 9 billion people moving across regions, a year-on-year increase of 7% [2] - The aviation passenger flow is estimated to grow by 7% year-on-year, with domestic growth of 4-5% and international growth nearing 30% [2] - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to have decreased by nearly 10% year-on-year, influenced by high base numbers and increased high-speed rail services [2] Group 2 - For the 2026 Spring Festival, demand is expected to remain strong, with pre-sales for tickets already showing significant year-on-year growth [3] - The aviation market is entering a traditional off-season post-New Year, with airlines managing low-price irrational competition [3] - The Chinese aviation industry is anticipated to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven pricing and a recovery in demand structure, which will support ticket prices and profitability in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by demand growth and recovery in passenger structure, with price and profitability expected to rise starting in 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - By 2025, the Chinese aviation supply will enter a low growth era, with structural changes in demand being a core issue [1] - From 2023 to 2025, rapid recovery and sustained growth in aviation demand are anticipated, with private demand remaining strong over the past three years, while public and business demand is expected to remain below 2019 levels in 2024-2025 [1] - It is estimated that by 2025, China's civil aviation passenger traffic will grow by 5-6% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 17% compared to 2019 [1] Group 2: Pricing and Capacity - By 2025, the passenger load factor in China's civil aviation is expected to reach a historical high, while ticket prices remain at historically low levels, with estimates indicating that domestic ticket prices including fuel will be lower than in 2024 and 2019 [1] - The industry's profitability has not yet recovered, primarily due to the low proportion of public and business demand compared to 2019, leading airlines to prioritize load factors and exchange price for volume to ensure passenger growth and load factor increases [1] Group 3: Spring Festival Travel Insights - During the 2025 Spring Festival travel period, the total cross-regional personnel flow exceeded 9 billion, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 7% [2] - Aviation passenger traffic is estimated to have increased by 7% year-on-year, with domestic traffic growing by 4-5% and international traffic seeing nearly a 30% increase [2] - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to have decreased by approximately 10% year-on-year, influenced by high base numbers and increased high-speed rail services [2] Group 4: 2026 Spring Festival Expectations - The aviation market is entering a traditional off-season, but demand is expected to remain strong for the 2026 Spring Festival travel period, with pre-sales for tickets already starting [3] - The anticipated travel period from February 2 to March 13, 2026, is expected to see significant demand, particularly in southern coastal cities and popular tourist destinations [3] - Airlines are expected to control the increase in flights and capacity, with limited additional flights anticipated during the Spring Festival, benefiting airlines' revenue management [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective decline in airline stocks, with Eastern Airlines down 3.32%, Southern Airlines down 2.6%, and Air China down 1.25% as of the report date [1] - According to the latest monitoring data from Flight Butler DAST, the number of flights from mainland China to Japan reached a new low of 1,006 flights during the 49th week (December 1 to December 7) [1] - The cancellation rate for flights on the China-Japan route is expected to reach 30.4% in mid-December, an increase of 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous reporting period [1] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities believes that the extension of the free refund and change policy for Japan routes will cause short-term disruptions but will not alter the long-term investment value of the airline industry [1] - Guotai Junan Securities points out that the recent reduction in passenger flow on Japan routes may lead airlines to shift focus to Southeast Asia and domestic markets [1] - The firm anticipates that the airline industry will continue to significantly reduce losses by Q4 2025 and expects a turnaround for the entire year of 2025 [1] Group 3 - The article mentions that the Chinese aviation sector is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven ticket pricing, steady demand growth, and an optimized customer base, which will elevate and sustain airline profitability [1]