申万宏源傅静涛："牛市1.0"科技结构牛可能在2026年春季来到高峰 相关快讯 21世纪经济报道 孙永乐 相关文章 2025-11-18 12:21 南方财经11月18日电，在"乘势而上"申万宏源·2026资本市场投资年会上，申万宏源研究A股策略首席分 析师傅静涛提出"牛市两段论"，2025年的科技结构牛是"牛市1.0"阶段，2026年春季可能是阶段性高 点；2026H2可能启动全面牛，构成"牛市2.0"阶段。"牛市1.0"科技结构牛难免要"中场休息"，可能在 2026年春季来到高峰：AI产业趋势还有纵深，但A股AI产业链股价已处于长期低性价比区域。这神似 2014年初的创业板，2018年初的食品饮料和2021年初的新能源。历史上，通常需经历"怀疑牛市级别"的 调整，再延续产业趋势行情。（21世纪经济报道） 南方财经11月18日电，在"乘势而上"申万宏源·2026资本市场投资年会上，申万宏源研究A股策略首席分 析师傅静涛提出"牛市两段论"，2025年的科技结构牛是"牛市1.0"阶段，2026年春季可能是阶段性高 点；2026H2可能启动全面牛，构成"牛市2.0"阶段。"牛市1.0"科技结构牛难免要"中场休息" ...

申万宏源发布研报称，"牛市1.0"阶段的高位区域，科技结构牛行情长期性价比不足，25年的科技结构牛是牛市1.0阶段，26年春季可能是阶段性 高点。高位震荡区间，顺周期和科技都要聚焦Alpha。科技成长短期机会主要来自于小波段反弹，更关注有新催化/产业空间大的方向，重点关注 储能和存储。另外，2026年景气展望向上 + 性价比较高的方向，可能在26年春季前抢跑，重点关注创新药和国防军工。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 一、"牛市1.0"阶段的高位区域：科技结构牛行情长期性价比不足，再向上突破阻力增加。顺周期行情还是"抢跑"阶段，中期逻辑仍有断点，牛市 2.0行情启动的条件尚不完备。先做好高位震荡市，基于短期性价比把握小波段节奏。顺周期短期性价比已偏低，科技成长相对性价比已较高。前 期机构投资者有调仓减仓、风格切换动作，短期下行风险可控。2026年春季前，科技成长还有反弹机会，顺周期投资需向有Alpha逻辑的方向收 缩。 当前的A股AI产业链，类似2013年底的创业板、2018年初的食品饮料、2021年初的新能源，都处于"产业趋势大波段没结束 + 中小波段有波折 + 长期低性价比区域"状态，参考历史经验，后续走势通常分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that Hong Kong stocks have outperformed A-shares during two phases: the industrial trend fermentation phase and the phase where Chinese assets are generally superior with clear structural main lines. The outlook remains positive for a rebound in the fourth quarter, particularly favoring high elasticity in the Hang Seng Technology Index [1]. Short-term Market Structure Characteristics - The technology growth sector currently lacks long-term cost-effectiveness, experiencing high volatility while awaiting industrial trend catalysts. The Shanghai Composite Index has been fluctuating narrowly, with the technology growth sector showing wide fluctuations. The absence of a dominant structure to lead the market breakout is noted, similar to previous years when long-term low cost-effectiveness areas struggled to gain valuation [2][3]. Mid-term Market Judgments - The "two-stage bull market" theory is maintained, with the first stage of the technology structure bull market occurring in 2025. The spring of 2026 may present challenges, including a critical verification period for demand and sensitivity to performance disturbances and liquidity shocks in low cost-effectiveness areas. The market is expected to experience a structural breakthrough, but the timing and conditions for a comprehensive bull market are still developing [4]. Upcoming Market Trends - The market is anticipated to see a rotation in sectors, particularly with the PPI turning positive and the emergence of price increase catalysts. The sectors of energy storage and photovoltaics are expected to show early signs of recovery, with potential for further upward movement in the AI industry, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense industries [5]. Quantitative Indicators - Various quantitative indicators show a continued expansion of profit effects across sectors, with significant participation from coal, oil and petrochemicals, and steel. However, sectors like non-ferrous metals and transportation are experiencing contraction [9]. ETF Market Overview - The ETF market reflects varied performance across sectors, with notable changes in share volumes and price fluctuations. For instance, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF has seen a 1.6% increase in share volume over five trading days, while the Southern CSI New Energy ETF has experienced a 1.2% decrease [10].