国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4108 -31 | （-0.75%） 4107 | | -10（-0.24%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3013 | +8（+0.27%） 3020 | | +11 （+0.37%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1124 | +2.75（+0.25%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕01 （美元/短吨） | 320.5 | +2.6（+0.82%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3020～3100， M2601+20/+30/+60， 持平； M2601+30， 持平； M2605+50/+80， 持平； | 较昨持平或+20； 现货基差M2601+40， 12-3月M2601+20/+30/+60， 2-4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the 12 and 02 contracts of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to show divergent trends. The 02 contract is mainly driven by the logic of position transfer and basis correction, while the 12 contract follows the spot delivery logic. The 12 - 2 reverse spread logic may continue in the short term. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [8][12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - On November 11, 2025, among different futures contracts, EC2602 had a significant increase of 5.33% to 1,690.5 points, with a trading volume increase of 351.24% and an open interest increase of 18.85%. EC2512 closed at 1,746.1 points, down 1.81% from the previous day [5] - The month - spread structure showed various changes. For example, the EC12 - EC02 spread was 56 points, down 117.7 points [5] 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - The SCFIS European line index was 1504.80 points, with a week - on - week increase of 24.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.43%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1329.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 4.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 52.84% [5] - Different container shipping routes had different price changes. For example, the SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa price was 3728 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 8.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.13% [5] 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The WTI crude oil near - month price was 59.94 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.92%. The Brent crude oil near - month price was 63.7 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - On November 11, the EC futures market was affected by position transfer and the uncertainty of the 02 contract's delivery settlement date. The EC2602 contract rose significantly due to position transfer and potential changes in the delivery settlement date. However, the final decision lies with the exchange [7] - In the short term, the 12 and 02 contracts are expected to show different trends. The 12 contract's valuation is under pressure as the shipping capacity is abundant in the second half of November, and the shipping companies' motivation to increase prices is weakening [8] - In terms of spot freight rates, although the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, the motivation to increase prices in the second half of November is weakening, and the expected price increase may not be fully realized. The freight rates in December may be restricted [9] - The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the Nordic 5 - port area in November and December is relatively stable, with only minor changes in this period. The shipping companies' cargo - handling performance after the Sino - US tariff reduction and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the EC2602 contract's valuation need to be monitored [9][10][11] 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [12] - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to wait and see [13] 3.3 Industry News - The CMA CGM Jules Verne on the OCEAN Alliance MED2 route is expected to reach the Suez Canal waters on November 14, which may indicate that the OCEAN Alliance is expanding its Red Sea test scope [14] - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been in effect for one month, but the implementation has been full of difficulties, and the second - stage cease - fire agreement is still uncertain [14] 3.4 Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing the SCFIS European line index, SCFIS US West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates of different routes over different time periods [17][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current main contradiction in the EC market lies in the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the fluctuation of domestic macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, in the second week of August (week33), the cargo collection situations of different alliances varied, with MSK performing well, OA being average, and PA being poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly weakened. This week, EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39, resulting in a slight decrease in shipping capacity but still remaining at a high level. In August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025, the average weekly shipping capacities are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and after considering all TBN as sailing suspensions, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU. From the perspective of the futures market, the current contract for October has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the futures price further down. The December contract has the attribute of a peak - season contract, and continuous position - shifting and contract - rolling support it. However, the overall driving force is downward, and there is still some room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions for the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices, price changes (%), basis, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts are provided. For example, the closing price of EC2508 is 2082.0 with a 0.10% increase, and its basis is 153.5 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are presented, along with their changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For instance, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 is 664.4, with a day - on - day decrease of 6.8 and a week - on - week increase of 13.2 [2]. Spot Index Information - **Spot Indexes and Changes**: The SCHIE, SCFI, CCFI, and NCFI spot indexes are updated at different frequencies. The current values, previous values, and percentage changes are provided. For example, the SCHIE index on August 11, 2025, is 2235.48, with a 2.71% decrease from the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - **Week34 Quotations**: In week34, shipping companies' prices decreased by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). PA Alliance's price was 2700 US dollars, MSK's was 2600 US dollars, and OA Alliance's was 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3]. - **Week35 Quotations**: MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars in week35. On Tuesday, HPL reduced its price by 400 to 2435 US dollars [3]. Related News On August 12, the Israeli military stated that the operation in Gaza had entered a "new stage." The Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eyal Zamir, said on the 11th that the operation in the Gaza Strip had entered a new phase, and the Israeli military would formulate the best plan to achieve its goals and protect the lives of the hostages [4].