然而，2024年12月，随着国际形势的变化，中国出台了新的稀土出口管制政策，实施了更为严格的出口限制，尤其是禁止向美国出口可用于军事装备的稀 土。其他类型的稀土则需要经过用途申报和许可证审核才能出口。这个政策标志着中国对全球稀土产业链的"管控升级"，旨在保护资源安全并防止稀土被用 于军事装备，尤其是针对美国的军事威胁。 然而，走私稀土不仅扰乱了市场秩序，还直接侵蚀了那些坚持合法经营的美国稀土企业的利益。美国的稀土行业长期面临产能不足和技术壁垒的问题，其稀 土提炼成本远高于中国。尽管如此，这些企业并未迅速扩张产能，而是选择通过限制供应、提高价格来从稀土的稀缺性中获取利润。然而，走私稀土的大量 涌入，直接冲击了它们的市场份额。 这一政策出台后的影响几乎立刻显现。美国市场上，稀土价格暴涨，涨幅超过了230%。这种价格波动引发了不法分子的注意，他们开始通过非法途径走私 稀土。而稀土走私，正是全球产业链中一个隐秘的灰色地带，一旦市场被压缩，走私活动便会剧烈反弹。 走私手段非常隐蔽，常常通过伪装，将稀土藏匿于看似无关的普通货物中。比如，走私者会将稀土藏在瓷砖胶、工业废料等物品中，通过复杂的物流链条运 送，从而避免海关的检 ...

2025年上半年，一场围绕稀土的暗战在美国企业内讧中爆发。 拿到政府补贴的美国稀土企业，自费搜集证据、收买内部人员，把本国企业走私中国稀土的实锤亲手送 到中国监管部门手中，直接掀翻了横跨中美两国的走私网络。 这波操作看似"胳膊肘往外拐"，实则藏着赤裸裸的利益算计。 一、稀土成"战略筹码" 稀土被称为"工业黄金"，小到手机芯片，大到F-35战机、核潜艇，都离不开这种关键材料。 2024年12月，中国正式出台稀土出口管制政策：可用于制造军事装备的关键稀土全面禁止对美出口，其 他稀土也必须申报用途、拿到许可证才能放行。 虽然美国有稀土矿，比如加州的芒廷帕斯矿，但缺乏精炼能力——中国掌控着全球90%的稀土精炼产 能，美国提炼氧化镨钕的成本高达5.8万美元/吨，比中国贵出六成。 过去美国依赖中国低价稀土惯了，禁令一出，美国稀土市场瞬间陷入混乱。 按照正常逻辑，美国本土稀土企业本该趁机扩产，填补供应缺口。 但现实是，这些企业打了另一笔算盘：中国禁令导致美国稀土价格飙升超230%，与其砸钱扩产承担风 险，不如捂货抬价，借着风口赚快钱。 拿了美国政府17亿美元补贴的MP材料公司，产能好几年原地踏步，压根没动过扩产的念头。 美 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the operation of a smuggling network that relies on "transshipment and disguise" methods, particularly in Thailand and Mexico [1] - In the first half of 2024, Thailand's imports of antimony oxide from China surged by 27 times, indicating abnormal import activity [1] - Mexico is exploiting the low inspection rates under the US-Mexico trade agreement to disguise Chinese rare earths as "Mexican-made" products, significantly increasing their exports to the US [1] Group 2 - The smuggling tactics employed by these groups are diverse, including mixing rare earths with iron sand and other materials, and using lead to conceal antimony ingots from X-ray detection [1] - When declaring shipments, these groups mislabel rare earths as "fertilizers" or "art pieces," often reporting values that are less than one-fifth of the actual price [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges posed to China's rare earth export controls by the U.S. utilizing third-party countries like Thailand and Mexico for circumventing these restrictions [1][4][19] Group 1: U.S. Circumvention Tactics - The U.S. has been importing significant amounts of antimony oxide, with 3,834 tons imported from December 2023 to April 2024, surpassing the total from the previous three years [1] - Thailand and Mexico have become key players in this circumvention, acting as "white gloves" to facilitate the smuggling of minerals from China by rebranding them as other products [4] Group 2: Economic Incentives and Market Impact - Companies in these intermediary countries are motivated by substantial short-term profits, with profits from these transshipments exceeding normal trade by 20 times [6] - The price of gallium has reached historical highs, exceeding $3,000 per kilogram, contributing to increased costs for U.S. companies reliant on these materials [6][7] Group 3: China's Response and Regulatory Measures - In response, China's Ministry of Commerce has initiated a crackdown on smuggling activities, including a special action plan targeting false reporting and third-country transshipments [9] - New amendments to the Mineral Resources Law have increased penalties for rare earth smuggling, with prison terms starting at 10 years [9] Group 4: Technological and Strategic Developments - China is implementing a "Rare Earth Traceability Electronic ID System" to monitor the entire supply chain of rare earths, making it difficult for smuggling operations to succeed [14] - China controls 90% of the global rare earth refining technology, creating a significant barrier for other countries attempting to develop independent capabilities [14] Group 5: Broader Implications for U.S. Military and Supply Chains - The U.S. military's reliance on Chinese rare earths has been exposed, with production of the F-35 aircraft reduced by 30% due to a shortage of dysprosium [17] - Efforts by the U.S. to create a "de-China" supply chain have been undermined by a lack of core refining technology and reliance on Chinese support for mining and processing [17][19] Group 6: Future Outlook for Intermediary Countries - Thailand and Mexico may face repercussions if China implements trade countermeasures, potentially leading to a reduction in rare earth import quotas [19] - China's advancements in technology and regulatory measures are positioning it to dictate global supply chain rules, emphasizing the importance of technological sovereignty in the ongoing geopolitical competition [19]

Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of China's export controls on rare earth elements, particularly on the U.S. military-industrial complex, which faces significant production losses and supply chain vulnerabilities [1][15][17] Group 1: U.S. Military and Supply Chain Issues - U.S. military contractors are experiencing a daily loss of $230 million on the F-35 production line due to rare earth supply shortages, with only 60 days of inventory available [1][15] - The importance of rare earth materials is underscored, as each F-35 requires 417 kilograms of rare earths, and Virginia-class submarines require up to 4 tons [13][15] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for rare earth processing, holding 92% of global refining capabilities, which exposes structural weaknesses in the U.S. supply chain [15][17] Group 2: Smuggling and Trade Dynamics - From December 2024 to April 2025, the U.S. imported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico, surpassing the total from the previous three years, with these materials originating from China [3][5] - Thailand and Mexico have emerged as significant players in the rare earth export market, with Thailand's imports of antimony oxide increasing by 27 times in the first half of 2025 [5][7] - Smugglers are using various methods to evade detection, including mixing rare earth oxides with other materials and mislabeling shipments [9][11] Group 3: China's Response and Regulatory Measures - In response to rampant smuggling, China has initiated a multi-faceted crackdown, including enhanced customs inspections and the introduction of a new mineral resources law that imposes severe penalties for smuggling [19][21] - The use of advanced technologies, such as blockchain for traceability and isotopic fingerprinting for source verification, is being implemented to combat illegal trade [23] - Recent operations have led to the arrest of 63 individuals and the blacklisting of 37 companies involved in smuggling activities [23]

Core Insights - The article highlights the dark side of rare earth gray market trade, particularly focusing on the smuggling of high-purity antimony ingots disguised as ordinary goods, aimed at U.S. military giants like Lockheed Martin [1][3]. Group 1: Smuggling Operations - Nearly 4,000 tons of rare earths have been smuggled through third countries like Thailand and Mexico to the U.S. in just five months, surpassing the total of the past three years [3]. - Antimony ingots were disguised as "iron ore," and neodymium-iron-boron magnetic powder was hidden in tile adhesive, showcasing the ingenuity of smugglers [3]. - A Thai company, "United Industries," shipped 3,366 tons of antimony products to the U.S. in six months, a 27-fold increase compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 2: Profit Margins and Market Dynamics - Prices for rare earth elements like dysprosium and terbium have surged by 200%, exceeding $3,000 per kilogram, driving U.S. companies to engage in the black market [4]. - The profit margin for rare earths through third-country transshipment has risen to 55%, with logistics companies in Thailand and Mexico taking commissions of 12% to 15% [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Responses - In May 2025, China intensified efforts to combat rare earth smuggling, implementing advanced detection technologies and stricter penalties under the new Mineral Resources Law [6]. - Following these measures, U.S. imports of rare earths through irregular channels dropped by 67% within two months [6]. Group 4: Impact on Taiwan and U.S. Military - Taiwan's military industry faces severe challenges due to China's export controls on rare earths, with 96% of its rare earth needs previously met by imports from China [7]. - The lack of critical rare earth elements has led to significant production issues for Taiwan's defense capabilities, affecting various military projects [7]. - U.S. military projects, including the F-35 and B-21, are also experiencing production disruptions due to shortages of essential rare earth materials [9]. Group 5: Challenges in Supply Chain Diversification - U.S. attempts to build a rare earth supply chain independent of China have faced significant hurdles, with production costs in Australia being 300% higher due to a lack of extraction technology [11]. - The reliance on China for rare earth processing remains high, with 80% of U.S. mined rare earths needing to be sent to China for purification [11].

Group 1 - China's strict control over rare earth resources has effectively targeted the industrial lifelines of certain countries, particularly impacting the high-tech sectors of the US and Western developed nations [1] - Despite agreeing to resume civilian rare earth supplies to the US within six months, China has set clear boundaries, allowing only compliant civilian exports while maintaining strict controls on military applications [1][2] - The introduction of a tracking system for the rare earth magnet industry requires producers to submit real-time data on transaction volumes and customer names, raising concerns among Western companies about the implications for the global supply chain [1] Group 2 - The concept of "rare earth weaponization" has emerged in Western media, highlighting the strategic importance of rare earth elements in defense, aerospace, electronics, and renewable energy sectors [2] - Rare earth elements are critical for military applications, such as precision-guided missiles and stealth aircraft, making their control a matter of national security for China [2][6] - There are ongoing attempts by foreign entities to bypass China's export controls, with reports of organized efforts to illegally transport rare earths out of the country [2][4] Group 3 - Smuggling methods for rare earths have become increasingly sophisticated, with criminals disguising high-purity rare earths as low-value products to evade export controls [4] - The Chinese government has launched a series of actions to combat rare earth smuggling, successfully disrupting multiple illegal channels and demonstrating its commitment to resource security [6] - Protecting rare earth resources is viewed as a long-term systemic project, requiring collaboration among various government departments to ensure comprehensive protection from source to endpoint [6][8] Group 4 - The strategic significance of protecting rare earth resources has grown amid increasing global resource competition, with a shift from resource advantages to industrial chain advantages in China's rare earth industry [9] - The importance of public participation in reporting suspicious smuggling activities is emphasized, as community vigilance can contribute significantly to national security efforts [8][9] - The ongoing battle for rare earth resources is framed as a crucial aspect of national destiny and future development, underscoring the need for collective action to safeguard these vital materials [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the unusual influx of 3,834 tons of antimony oxide into the U.S. from Thailand and Mexico between December last year and April this year, suggesting a strategic maneuver by the U.S. to circumvent China's rare earth export restrictions [1][3] - The U.S. is utilizing third countries to disguise rare earth materials as ordinary goods, employing a "ant-like" smuggling method with frequent small shipments to avoid detection [1][3] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Thailand and Mexico were not in the top ten exporters of antimony to the U.S. in 2023, but they suddenly became top three exporters within a few months, indicating a significant shift in trade patterns [3] - The amount of antimony oxide imported from these countries during the specified period exceeded the total imports from the previous three years, raising questions about the legitimacy of these exports [3] Group 2: U.S. Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for 41 out of 50 critical minerals, with 29 of those being predominantly sourced from China, highlighting the fragility of its mineral supply chain [3][4] - Despite having rare earth mines, the U.S. lacks sufficient processing capacity, with almost no domestic rare earth refining capabilities, which poses a risk to industries reliant on these materials, such as military aircraft manufacturing [3][4] Group 3: Legislative and Strategic Efforts - The Trump administration's Critical Minerals Revitalization Act aimed to reduce import dependency but faced significant challenges due to environmental opposition, hindering mining projects [4] - The U.S. is attempting to form a "mineral alliance" with 15 countries to create a new rare earth supply chain, but efforts to secure resources have been met with political and logistical difficulties [4] Group 4: International Relations and Smuggling Issues - Indian companies are reportedly involved in rare earth smuggling while publicly criticizing China, undermining their credibility in international trade [6][9] - The Chinese government has implemented strict measures to combat rare earth smuggling, including a comprehensive regulatory framework and advanced tracking systems to monitor the supply chain [7][9] Group 5: Future Implications - The increasing sophistication of China's tracking technology is expected to make it more difficult and costly for the U.S. to continue its current smuggling strategies [7][9] - India's failure to provide complete supply chain data may lead to its perception as an unreliable trade partner, potentially isolating it in the global rare earth market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in the import of antimony oxide by the United States from Thailand and Mexico, which raises concerns about a potential smuggling network involving Chinese enterprises [1][7]. Group 1: Smuggling Operations - Between December 2024 and April 2025, the U.S. imported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico, surpassing the total of the previous three years [1][7]. - The smuggling operations involve disguising Chinese rare earth materials as other products, such as iron ore and zinc, to evade customs regulations [3][9]. - A Chinese metal chemical company's subsidiary in Thailand reportedly shipped 3,366 tons of antimony products to the U.S. within six months, marking a 27-fold increase year-on-year [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The surge in international rare earth prices, which have risen by 200% since 2024, has incentivized some Chinese companies to engage in smuggling for higher profits [11]. - Smuggling profits can reach 3-5 times that of normal trade, creating a vicious cycle that distorts international market prices and attracts more participants into illegal trading [11]. Group 3: Military Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - The smuggling case exposes critical vulnerabilities in the U.S. military supply chain, with a significant reliance on Chinese-produced materials for key weapon systems [12][15]. - Approximately 90% of global rare earth processing capacity is concentrated in China, and over 80% of the U.S. military's rare earth material needs are sourced from China [15]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - In response to the smuggling issue, China initiated a special action in May 2025 to combat illegal activities related to rare earth exports, including enhanced customs inspections and data sharing with industry associations [19][21]. - New amendments to the Mineral Resources Law have increased penalties for rare earth smuggling, and several cases have already been prosecuted, involving significant quantities of metals [21]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The ongoing rare earth competition reflects a broader struggle for control over global supply chains, with China leveraging its technological advantages to shape international trade rules [23]. - Efforts by the U.S. to rebuild its supply chain have been largely ineffective, with significant time required to establish independence from Chinese sources [17].

Core Viewpoint - Recent revelations about rare earth smuggling highlight the complexity and secrecy of international rare earth trade, with significant increases in imports from Thailand and Mexico raising suspicions of "label washing" from China to the US [1][3]. Group 1: Smuggling Mechanisms - Chinese agents are reportedly labeling controlled rare earth minerals like gallium and antimony as "iron ore" or "zinc concentrate" to facilitate illegal exports through Mexico and Thailand [3]. - Mexico's geographical proximity to the US and low customs inspection rates make it an ideal smuggling route, while Thailand's busy transshipment ports and regulatory loopholes further enable these activities [5]. - Smugglers can earn commissions of 12%-15% per ton of rare earths transported, significantly higher than standard rates for regular goods [5]. Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Environment - The US has been criticized for allowing companies to exploit legal loopholes, as evidenced by a court ruling that exempted third-country transshipments of rare earths from the Clean Supply Chain Act [5]. - Recent smuggling cases have revealed collusion between Chinese companies and US military contractors, with advanced technologies being used to disguise shipments [7]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Smuggling Incentives - The price of key rare earth elements has surged by 200% since China implemented export controls, with dysprosium and terbium reaching $3,000 per kilogram, driving smuggling activities [9]. - Smuggling operations are more cost-effective and efficient compared to legal imports, with profit margins reaching 55% due to lower logistics costs and fewer regulatory hurdles [9]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - Regulatory authorities have initiated measures targeting false declarations and third-country transshipments, with technological upgrades aiding in detection efforts [11]. - The implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law has increased penalties for rare earth smuggling, establishing a national traceability platform for rare earths [11]. Group 5: Impact of Regulatory Measures - Since May, the volume of rare earth imports through non-standard channels in the US has decreased by 67%, indicating a weakening of smuggling networks [12]. - The development of recycling technologies for rare earths is reducing the incentive for smuggling, with costs only 18% of those for new mining [12].