Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show that the arrival volume has decreased, and the supply pressure has eased. The demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The contradictions in the fundamentals are not prominent, but the futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the overall market remains volatile [4]. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly during the day, closing at 783 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 305,000 lots, the open interest was 521,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.969 billion yuan. The futures market tested the short - term support level near 780 again [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 5 yuan to 789 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 5 yuan to 675 yuan/ton. The swaps main contract was at 102.8 (-1.05) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1]. - Basis and spread: The converted price of Qingdao Port PB powder on the futures market was 822.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 39.5 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion. The spread between the May and September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September and January contracts was 12.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis. The futures market should be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to further testing near the lower support, with limited downward space [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrival volume continued to weaken, and supply was expected to be affected by weather. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, the rigid demand was stable, the inventory replenishment speed of steel mills accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly. With the approaching Spring Festival, the inventory replenishment speed accelerated, and the total inventory pressure was still increasing. The short - term supply pressure eased, but the inventory pressure increased. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre - festival inventory replenishment on the demand side supported the iron ore price. The supply - demand situation in reality remained to be verified [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: This week, the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations" continued. The pace of domestic demand recovery was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro - environment was mainly for support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [3]. - Overseas: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down, the savings rate was at a low level, and consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal momentum. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. In this context, the market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of a change in the Fed's leadership, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased, and asset pricing differentiation widened [3].

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Although the inventory pressure is increasing, the demand-side restocking before the Spring Festival supports the ore price. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis, with the futures at a discount [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated within the day, closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 278,000 lots, the open interest was 541,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.424 billion yuan. The futures price may continue to be slightly strong in the near future [1] - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties and swaps declined slightly. The basis widened slightly, and the iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while those from Brazil and non-mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, with supply-side disturbances expected due to weather. The molten iron output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the steel mill profit margin weakened. The steel mills' restocking speed accelerated, and the inventory pressure continued to accumulate [2] - The decrease in arrivals eased the short-term supply pressure, but the inventory pressure continued to increase. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre-festival restocking on the demand side supported the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remained to be verified [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, the week continued the pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand was slow, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the willingness of residents and enterprises for long - term financing was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented, and the market was waiting for policy effects and data confirmation [3] - Overseas, the US consumption remained resilient, but its internal driving force was weakening. Core inflation continued to cool, but the stickiness of service items remained. The market's focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, and the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased [3] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply pressure has eased slightly, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations". The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the export's marginal support for growth cannot offset the insufficient domestic demand. The price remains low, and the credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in the observation and verification stage, and the improvement of physical work and demand is expected to be concentrated in the first quarter. Overall, the short - term domestic fundamentals have limited direct support for risk assets, and the market is waiting for further confirmation of policy effects and data [11]. - Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is slowly falling, and policy uncertainty is rising. The US consumption is still resilient but with weakening internal momentum. Core inflation is cooling, but service - item inflation is sticky. The market's focus has shifted to the Fed's leadership change expectation, increasing policy uncertainty and asset - pricing differentiation. However, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to the resilience of risk assets [11]. - In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate medium - cap style in domestic equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; keep a neutral position in national bonds and standard - allocate 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate precious metals such as gold and silver; over - allocate non - ferrous metals like copper and tin; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 29, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4784, with a daily increase of 0.79%, a weekly increase of 1.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4%. The SSE 50 futures price was 3130.4, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8517.6, with a daily decrease of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 15.68%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8329, with a daily decrease of 0.51%, a weekly decrease of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.01% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.875, with a daily increase of 0.02%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.11%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.25, with a daily increase of 0.06%, a weekly increase of 0.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.36%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.17, with a daily increase of 0.08%, a weekly decrease of 0.12%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.68% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9481, with a daily decrease of 64 pips, a weekly decrease of 151 pips, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 409 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5479%, with a daily decrease of 3.54 basis points, a weekly increase of 5.44 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 43.42 basis points. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.8164%, with a daily decrease of 1.47 basis points, a weekly decrease of 1.34 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 3.09 basis points. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, with a daily increase of 2 basis points [2]. 3.2 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 28, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.5, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.61%. ICE Brent crude oil price was 67.69, with a daily increase of 1.65%, a weekly increase of 3.44%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 11.13%. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.723, with a daily decrease of 2.54%, a weekly increase of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.32%. ICE UK natural gas price was 90.36, with a daily decrease of 1.7%, a weekly decrease of 12.25%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 21.11% [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 5411, with a daily increase of 4.47%, a weekly increase of 8.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 24.9%. COMEX silver price was 116.62, with a daily increase of 10.06%, a weekly increase of 12.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 64.3% [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 13086.5, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.32%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.72%. LME aluminum price was 3257, with a daily increase of 1.56%, a weekly increase of 2.63%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 8.68%. LME zinc price was 3364, with a daily increase of 0.39%, a weekly increase of 2.91%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 7.61%. LME tin price was 25953, with a daily increase of 1.96%, a weekly decrease of 1.15%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 38.26% [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans price was 1074.75, with a daily increase of 0.7%, a weekly increase of 0.68%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.63%. CBOT soybean oil price was 54.35, with a daily decrease of 0.11%, a weekly increase of 0.78%, a monthly decrease of 0.67%, and a quarterly and annual increase of 11.95%. CBOT corn price was 430.75, with a daily increase of 1%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.32%. CBOT wheat price was 535.25, with a daily increase of 2.29%, a weekly increase of 0.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.68%. ICE No. 2 cotton price was 63.64, with a daily decrease of 0.3%, a weekly decrease of 0.31%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 1.03% [5]. 3.3 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Shipping**: On January 29, 2026, the freight rate of container shipping on the European route was 1349.09, with a daily increase of 3.21%, a weekly increase of 9.46%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 11.36% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold price was 1250.65, with a daily increase of 5.29%, a weekly increase of 12.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 27.64%. Silver price was 30452.18, with a daily increase of 4.42%, a weekly increase of 22.06%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 78.31% [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 474.41, with a daily increase of 2.57%, a weekly increase of 6.89%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.59%. Fuel oil price was 2802.96, with a daily increase of 2.94%, a weekly increase of 7.01%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.38%. Low - sulfur fuel oil price was 3316.32, with a daily increase of 2.6%, a weekly increase of 6.48%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 13.76%. Asphalt price was 3472.58, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly increase of 7.28%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.39% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Stainless steel price was 14641.24, with a daily increase of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 0.54%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.8%. Aluminum price was 17208.52, with a daily increase of 1.13%, a weekly decrease of 0.85%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.85% [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel price was 3165.04, with a daily increase of 0.67%, a weekly increase of 0.57%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.4%. Iron ore price was 796.29, with a daily increase of 1.94%, a weekly increase of 0.36%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.9%. Coke price had the first round of price increase, and the market sentiment was positive. Coking coal price was weak and stable in the spot market, and the futures price was strong [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal price was 2848.88, with a daily increase of 0.5%, a weekly increase of 1.35%. Soybean oil price was 8366.29, with a daily increase of 0.65%, a weekly increase of 3.49%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.4%. Palm oil price was 9347.99, with a daily increase of 0.97%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.08% [8]. 3.4 Short - term Judgment of Each Sector - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with index opportunities being better than individual stocks. Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with intraday style switching and increased option trading volume. National bond futures are expected to be volatile, with the short - end of the bond market showing a strong trend [12]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Gold is driven by the smooth expectation of liquidity easing and the resurgence of geopolitical conflicts. Silver is supported by the tight spot structure and is sensitive to liquidity and the cyclical drive [12]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping on the European route is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitical emotions and the downward pressure of off - season freight rates [12]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to be volatile. Steel is supported by cost and the futures price is rising from a low level. Iron ore has a slight decrease in molten iron production and an accelerated inventory build - up in the downstream [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Copper is rising due to the significant decline of the US dollar index. Aluminum is rising due to optimistic capital sentiment. Nickel is rising due to the game between policy expectations and weak reality [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all expected to be volatile. Crude oil is affected by supply pressure and geopolitical factors. LPG is affected by the weakening chemical demand and the risk from Iran [14]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Oils, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Oils are continuing their upward trend. Natural rubber has broken through the previous high and is continuing to rise. Protein meal, corn/starch, and sugar are expected to be volatile. Protein meal is pushed up by short - covering, and corn/starch and sugar are affected by various factors such as demand, macro - environment, and production [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows an overall trend of gradually strengthening in a volatile manner. The supply pressure has eased due to reduced arrivals, the demand side has stable rigid demand, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the market has turned stronger again [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **期货价格**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate strongly during the day, closing at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton or 1.98% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 308,000 lots, the open interest was 555,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.758 billion yuan. The futures price stopped falling near the predicted support level of 780 and may continue to fluctuate strongly in the near term, suggesting a low - buying strategy [1]. - **现货价格**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 7 to 797 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder rose 7 to 680 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 104.75 (+1.7) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices strengthened again [1]. - **基差价差端**: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 832.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 19.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis, and the futures market should be treated with a view of fluctuating strength [1]. 基本面梳理 - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to arrivals. There were expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory of berthed ships increased, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still increasing [2]. 宏观层面 - **Domestic**: This week, the domestic market continued the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The recovery rhythm of domestic demand was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro environment was mainly for bottom - support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - **Overseas**: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down and the savings rate was at a low level. Consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, and the internal driving force weakened. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. The market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased and asset pricing differentiation widened [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the support for risk - assets from the domestic fundamentals is limited in the short - term. Overseas, the macro - environment is still favorable for the resilience of risk - assets, but policy uncertainty is increasing, leading to greater differentiation in asset pricing. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; maintain a neutral stance on national bonds and standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate long positions in precious metals; over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. - For different sectors, most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4,732.8, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 0.5%, and a monthly increase of 2.89%. The Shanghai 50 futures price was 3,069.8, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a monthly increase of 1.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8,622, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.42%, and a monthly increase of 17.1%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8,377.8, with a daily increase of 0.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.63%, and a monthly increase of 12.66% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.87, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly decrease of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.1%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.21, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.32%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.09, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and a monthly increase of 0.61% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9545 pips, with a daily increase of 3, a weekly decrease of 87, and a monthly decrease of 345 [2]. 2. Fluctuations in Popular Industries - On January 28, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals had the highest daily increase of 6.02%, with a weekly increase of 10.59% and a monthly increase of 31.19%. The defense and military industry had a daily decrease of 1.71%, a weekly decrease of 4.62%, and a monthly increase of 7.96%. The banking industry had a daily decrease of 0.63%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%, and a monthly decrease of 7.3% [5]. 3. Fluctuations in Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: On January 27, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at $62.57, with a daily increase of 3.2%, a weekly increase of 2.11%, and a monthly increase of 8.99%. ICE Brent crude oil was priced at $66.76, with a daily increase of 3.07%, a weekly increase of 2.02%, and a monthly increase of 9.6% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was priced at $5,179.6, with a daily increase of 1.91%, a weekly increase of 3.94%, and a monthly increase of 19.56%. COMEX silver was priced at $112.345, with a daily decrease of 2.74%, a weekly increase of 8.8%, and a monthly increase of 58.28% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was priced at $13,006.5, with a daily decrease of 1.46%, a weekly decrease of 0.93%, and a monthly increase of 4.08%. LME aluminum was priced at $3,207, with a daily increase of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 1.06%, and a monthly increase of 7.01% [8]. 4. Macro Highlights - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic macro - situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, price levels remain low, and credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in an observation and verification stage, and the improvement in physical work and demand is more likely to be concentrated in the first quarter. In the short - term, the direct support from domestic fundamentals for risk - assets is limited [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is falling slowly, and policy uncertainty is increasing. The US consumption has some resilience, but its internal driving force is weakening. The core inflation is cooling, but the decline is not smooth. The market's focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, increasing policy uncertainty [14]. - **Large - scale Assets**: It is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities (CSI 500 stock index futures), standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures, standard - allocate long positions in precious metals, over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals, and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. 5. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards, stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and national bond futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [15]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on European routes is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward trend, such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. [15]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Most energy and chemical varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some agricultural products such as corn/starch, live pigs, etc. are expected to fluctuate downwards, while cotton is expected to fluctuate upwards [17]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure has eased slightly due to the decrease in arrivals, while the demand is relatively stable. Although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contracts show a back structure and positive basis, with a slight short - term weakness, but the overall downside space may be limited [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures prices**: The main iron ore futures contract continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, closing at 788 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 212,000 lots, the open interest was 571,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.9 billion yuan. The futures market is in a narrow - range consolidation, showing a slight short - term weakness, and attention should be paid to further tests near the short - term support of 780 [1]. - **Spot prices**: The mainstream port spot varieties, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose 6 yuan to 799 yuan, and Super Special powder rose 6 yuan to 678 yuan. The swap's main contract was at 103.7 (+0.15) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices increased slightly [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures market was 832.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 44.4 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 18.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 12.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis, with a short - term weakness and limited downside space [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and there were expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The short - term supply pressure eased, but the inventory pressure was still increasing [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was relatively stable. Steel mills were in the process of restocking, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron and the release rhythm of restocking demand before the festival [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories also increased, but were still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still building up [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: This week, the domestic macro situation continued the pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The recovery of domestic demand was still slow, consumption and investment had not formed an effective resonance, and exports could not offset the insufficient domestic demand. The macro environment was mainly for bottom - support [3]. - **Overseas**: This week, the overseas macro logic revolved around the marginal weakening of demand, the slow decline of inflation, and the increasing policy uncertainty. US consumption was still resilient, but the income growth slowed down, the savings rate was low, and the internal driving force was weakening. Core inflation continued to cool down, but the stickiness in the service sector remained, and the decline of inflation was not smooth. The market's focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, and the policy prospects changed from a single interest - rate cut path to "rhythm and framework game" [3].