来源：华创期货 【摘要】周三，螺纹钢主力合约在前低支撑位附近企稳大涨并形成"底分型"技术形态，成交量大幅增 加。 供应端：极度克制的复产节奏 根据Mysteel最新统计数据显示，截至2026年2月20日当周，全国137家主流钢厂螺纹钢周产量为170.38万 吨，环比增加1.22万吨，增幅0.72%；同比减少26.53万吨，降幅13.47%。将时间轴拉长来看，春节后第 一周产量维持在170万吨左右的水平，放在历史同期中属于偏低位置。这背后折射出的不是简单的节假 日效应，而是钢厂复产意愿的持续低迷。这种"克制"源于多重因素，利润率的压制首当其冲。尽管焦炭 价格经过多轮提降后，钢厂即期利润有所修复，但考虑到成材现货价格持续疲软，多数内陆及高成本产 区的钢厂依然处于盈亏平衡线甚至微亏状态，复产的经济动力不足。更重要的是，市场普遍预期的2026 年粗钢产量调控政策，使得钢厂在生产计划上更加谨慎，不敢轻易大规模复产，以免在后续的政策窗口 期陷入被动。因此，供给端的低产量，本质上是在市场自发调节与政策预期引导双重作用下形成的"新 常态"，这为价格的底部提供了一层薄薄的缓冲垫。 需求端：表象冰点下的复苏曙光 【温馨提醒】市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" with inventory accumulation and weak demand pressuring short-term prices, but export profit improvement, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations providing bottom support and limiting the downside space [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 323 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 523,081 lots, showing increased volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,185 yuan, and the high was 3,242 yuan. It rebounded and rose sharply after a significant reduction in positions in the afternoon. In terms of the moving average, it briefly broke through the 5-day moving average in the short term, but there was still pressure from the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term. It closed at 3,236 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan, a 1.19% increase [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The production of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly and remained stable. In the week of February 13, 2026, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.0776 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 79.14%, indicating strong production resilience of long-process steel mills [4] - **Demand**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly shrank, and the apparent consumption continued to weaken. Before the festival, the inventory shifted from de-stocking to stockpiling, and the supply-demand contradiction shifted to the circulation link [4] - **Inventory**: The stockpiling accelerated, and the pressure was concentrated on the social end. As of February 13, 2026, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coils was 2.8045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 21,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 787,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons; the total inventory reached 3.592 million tons, showing a significant accumulation compared to before the festival. Although the absolute inventory level was still lower than the historical high, the stockpiling speed accelerated, and the market was cautious about the post-festival destocking rhythm [4] - **Policy**: There were internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated the sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and with the approaching of the Two Sessions, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in increased, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6] Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures rebounded sharply with a significant reduction in positions and increased volume in the afternoon, mainly due to the continuous rise in the stock market and the emission reduction control faced by some steel mills in the north with the approaching of the Two Sessions, leading short sellers to choose to leave the market and wait and see. In the short term, it broke through the 5-day moving average, and in the medium term, attention should still be paid to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. It is recommended to be cautious. Fundamentally, the current hot-rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show that the arrival volume has decreased, and the supply pressure has eased. The demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The contradictions in the fundamentals are not prominent, but the futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the overall market remains volatile [4]. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly during the day, closing at 783 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 305,000 lots, the open interest was 521,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.969 billion yuan. The futures market tested the short - term support level near 780 again [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 5 yuan to 789 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 5 yuan to 675 yuan/ton. The swaps main contract was at 102.8 (-1.05) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1]. - Basis and spread: The converted price of Qingdao Port PB powder on the futures market was 822.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 39.5 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion. The spread between the May and September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September and January contracts was 12.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis. The futures market should be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to further testing near the lower support, with limited downward space [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrival volume continued to weaken, and supply was expected to be affected by weather. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, the rigid demand was stable, the inventory replenishment speed of steel mills accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly. With the approaching Spring Festival, the inventory replenishment speed accelerated, and the total inventory pressure was still increasing. The short - term supply pressure eased, but the inventory pressure increased. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre - festival inventory replenishment on the demand side supported the iron ore price. The supply - demand situation in reality remained to be verified [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: This week, the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations" continued. The pace of domestic demand recovery was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro - environment was mainly for support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [3]. - Overseas: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down, the savings rate was at a low level, and consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal momentum. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. In this context, the market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of a change in the Fed's leadership, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased, and asset pricing differentiation widened [3].

沥青月报 ---强预期推升盘面 关注地缘局势演绎 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-1-30 04 后市研判 目录 01 行情回顾 03 供需分析 02 宏观分析 行情PA回RT顾01 原料偏紧及油价走强 价格触底反弹 Ø 1月份受原料端偏紧及油价偏强的双重影响，沥青价格触底反弹，今年以来累计上涨14.5%。一是美国突袭委内瑞拉后深度 介入其原油领域，稀释沥青进口来源受限及贴水大幅收窄，原料端收紧及成本抬升预期对盘面提供支撑。二是中东地缘紧 张局势升温，美国正加速向中东地区进行军事部署，美国总统特朗普相关言论加剧市场的担忧情绪，市场担忧局势恶化可 能导致霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻，由此引发的供应中断潜在风险推升油价，并传导至化工板块。 OPEC+1月份暂停增产 重申一季度暂停增产的计划 Ø OPEC+1月份继续暂停增产，重申一季度暂停增产的计划：1月4日欧佩克在一份声明中表示，八个参与国重申了2025年11月2日的 决定，即由于季节性因素，暂停2026年2月和3月的增产，八个参与国重申，165万桶/日的产量可能会根据不断变化的市场状况， 以部分或全部的方式逐步 ...

3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 830.4 元/吨，基差 38.7 元/吨， 基差小幅走扩；铁矿 5-9 价差 19 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 12.5 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，期货盘面仍以震荡偏强思路对待。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运有所增加，主要是澳洲有所修复，巴西和非主流国家仍有下 滑；本期到港继续走弱，前期发运下降传导至到港，由于天气影响供给端存扰 动预期；需求端，铁水产量环比略降，钢厂盈利率有所走弱，刚需偏稳，钢厂 补库速度加快，钢厂库存快速累积，关注节前铁水恢复高度和补库需求释放节 奏。库存方面，港口继续累库，压港库存下降，钢厂库存大幅增加，春节临近 补库速度加快，总库存压力仍在积累。 到港减量，短期供应压力稍缓，库存压力仍在增加，商品情绪偏强，需求 端节前补库支撑矿价，现实方面供需两端仍有待验证。 【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：下游累库，刚需存支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡，收于 791.5 元/吨，较前一 个交易日收盘价有所回落-7 元/吨，跌幅-0.88%，成交 27.8 万 ...

铁矿日报：商品市场情绪有所转暖，盘面仍显坚韧 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内延续震荡偏强，收于 798.5 元/ 吨，较前一个交易日收盘价上涨+15.5 元/吨，涨幅+1.98%，成交 30.8 万手， 持仓量 55.5 万手，沉淀资金 97.58 亿。期货盘面在预判支撑 780 附近短期形成 一定止跌，近期或延续震荡偏强，低多思路对待。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 797 涨+7，超特粉 680 涨 +7，掉期主力 104.75(+1.7)美元/吨。现货、掉期价格再度走强上涨。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 832.4 元/吨，基差 33.9 元/吨， 基差有所收窄；铁矿 5-9 价差 19.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 13.5 元，铁矿期货合约 呈现 back 结构+正基差，期货盘面仍以震荡偏强思路对待。 二、基本面梳理 【冠通期货研究报告】 四、观点总结 综合来看，铁矿基本面上，到港减量，供应压力有所减缓，需求端刚需偏 稳，港口虽仍在累库，但逐步向下游钢厂转移；基本面矛盾不突出，但期货合 约呈现 ba ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the support for risk - assets from the domestic fundamentals is limited in the short - term. Overseas, the macro - environment is still favorable for the resilience of risk - assets, but policy uncertainty is increasing, leading to greater differentiation in asset pricing. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; maintain a neutral stance on national bonds and standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate long positions in precious metals; over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. - For different sectors, most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4,732.8, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 0.5%, and a monthly increase of 2.89%. The Shanghai 50 futures price was 3,069.8, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a monthly increase of 1.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8,622, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.42%, and a monthly increase of 17.1%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8,377.8, with a daily increase of 0.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.63%, and a monthly increase of 12.66% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.87, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly decrease of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.1%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.21, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.32%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.09, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and a monthly increase of 0.61% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9545 pips, with a daily increase of 3, a weekly decrease of 87, and a monthly decrease of 345 [2]. 2. Fluctuations in Popular Industries - On January 28, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals had the highest daily increase of 6.02%, with a weekly increase of 10.59% and a monthly increase of 31.19%. The defense and military industry had a daily decrease of 1.71%, a weekly decrease of 4.62%, and a monthly increase of 7.96%. The banking industry had a daily decrease of 0.63%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%, and a monthly decrease of 7.3% [5]. 3. Fluctuations in Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: On January 27, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at $62.57, with a daily increase of 3.2%, a weekly increase of 2.11%, and a monthly increase of 8.99%. ICE Brent crude oil was priced at $66.76, with a daily increase of 3.07%, a weekly increase of 2.02%, and a monthly increase of 9.6% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was priced at $5,179.6, with a daily increase of 1.91%, a weekly increase of 3.94%, and a monthly increase of 19.56%. COMEX silver was priced at $112.345, with a daily decrease of 2.74%, a weekly increase of 8.8%, and a monthly increase of 58.28% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was priced at $13,006.5, with a daily decrease of 1.46%, a weekly decrease of 0.93%, and a monthly increase of 4.08%. LME aluminum was priced at $3,207, with a daily increase of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 1.06%, and a monthly increase of 7.01% [8]. 4. Macro Highlights - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic macro - situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, price levels remain low, and credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in an observation and verification stage, and the improvement in physical work and demand is more likely to be concentrated in the first quarter. In the short - term, the direct support from domestic fundamentals for risk - assets is limited [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is falling slowly, and policy uncertainty is increasing. The US consumption has some resilience, but its internal driving force is weakening. The core inflation is cooling, but the decline is not smooth. The market's focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, increasing policy uncertainty [14]. - **Large - scale Assets**: It is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities (CSI 500 stock index futures), standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures, standard - allocate long positions in precious metals, over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals, and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. 5. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards, stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and national bond futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [15]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on European routes is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward trend, such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. [15]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Most energy and chemical varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some agricultural products such as corn/starch, live pigs, etc. are expected to fluctuate downwards, while cotton is expected to fluctuate upwards [17]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure has eased slightly due to the decrease in arrivals, while the demand is relatively stable. Although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contracts show a back structure and positive basis, with a slight short - term weakness, but the overall downside space may be limited [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures prices**: The main iron ore futures contract continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, closing at 788 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 212,000 lots, the open interest was 571,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.9 billion yuan. The futures market is in a narrow - range consolidation, showing a slight short - term weakness, and attention should be paid to further tests near the short - term support of 780 [1]. - **Spot prices**: The mainstream port spot varieties, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose 6 yuan to 799 yuan, and Super Special powder rose 6 yuan to 678 yuan. The swap's main contract was at 103.7 (+0.15) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices increased slightly [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures market was 832.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 44.4 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 18.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 12.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis, with a short - term weakness and limited downside space [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and there were expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The short - term supply pressure eased, but the inventory pressure was still increasing [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was relatively stable. Steel mills were in the process of restocking, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron and the release rhythm of restocking demand before the festival [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories also increased, but were still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still building up [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: This week, the domestic macro situation continued the pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The recovery of domestic demand was still slow, consumption and investment had not formed an effective resonance, and exports could not offset the insufficient domestic demand. The macro environment was mainly for bottom - support [3]. - **Overseas**: This week, the overseas macro logic revolved around the marginal weakening of demand, the slow decline of inflation, and the increasing policy uncertainty. US consumption was still resilient, but the income growth slowed down, the savings rate was low, and the internal driving force was weakening. Core inflation continued to cool down, but the stickiness in the service sector remained, and the decline of inflation was not smooth. The market's focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, and the policy prospects changed from a single interest - rate cut path to "rhythm and framework game" [3].

Group 1 - The overall steel market in South China is stable, with minor fluctuations in individual brands, while the futures market shows an increase in most black series products, led by coking coal with a rise of 1.35% [3] - Guangdong plans to invest over 1 trillion yuan in 2026, with significant allocations for infrastructure, industry, and public welfare projects, which is expected to support steel demand [4] - The China Iron and Steel Association reported a slight decrease in daily crude steel production but an increase in daily steel output, indicating a mixed supply situation that may pressure steel prices [5][9] Group 2 - Guangdong's public budget revenue for 2025 was 1.39 trillion yuan, with a growth of 3%, and the forecast for 2026 is 1.44 trillion yuan, also growing by 3%, indicating stable fiscal conditions that support steel demand [6][7] - The increase in public budget expenditures and the growth in the less developed regions of Guangdong provide ongoing support for steel demand, particularly in construction [7] - The futures market shows a mixed sentiment, with rebar prices rising but with a decrease in positions, indicating weaker momentum despite the price increase [8][9]

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market continues to rise sharply, with futures contracts surging over 7% to exceed 180,000 yuan/ton, closing at 181,520 yuan/ton, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 171,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaged 167,500 yuan/ton, both showing daily increases of 6,500 yuan/ton, or approximately 3.95% and 4.04% respectively [1] - Since the beginning of 2026, lithium carbonate prices have increased by 50.46%, breaking through multiple price thresholds within a month [1] Group 2 - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for battery products is a key driver of the current price surge, with the rebate rate set to decrease from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and to be completely eliminated by January 1, 2027 [1] - Demand is being driven by downstream manufacturers ramping up production in response to the anticipated reduction in export tax rebates, with phosphate iron lithium manufacturers canceling maintenance to operate at full capacity [1][2] - Supply constraints are evident, with a reported weekly production decrease of 338 tons and inventory reduction of 783 tons, attributed to annual maintenance at lithium salt plants and strong demand from battery manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Despite the bullish sentiment in the market, analysts caution that the current situation reflects a "strong expectation, weak reality" dynamic, with actual improvements in the lithium carbonate fundamentals being limited [2] - The market is experiencing a shift from a "full industry chain destocking" phase to a scenario where smelters and traders are accumulating inventory while downstream manufacturers are passively destocking [2] - Major lithium industry players are accelerating capacity expansion, with significant investments announced for new projects aimed at increasing production capacity [3][4]