1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a weak reality in the short - term, but the market's expectation for the recovery of steel demand is rising with the macro - environment turning loose. Steel prices still have a downward risk from the fundamental perspective, and policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session trends need to be focused on [2]. - For iron ore, short - term iron ore prices may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [5]. - The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise, similar to the situation in 2023. The market is expected to be driven by policies, and the black - building materials sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - position allocation in the long - term [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [15]. - For polysilicon, the price may be supported if leading enterprises carry out maintenance in November, and attention should be paid to policy changes [17]. - Glass is recommended to be viewed more positively in the short - term, and attention should be paid to policy trends. Soda ash is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3096 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.781%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10110 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 34297 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (1.014%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions increased by 24718 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The steel showed a volatile and stronger trend. The real demand during the holiday was weak, but the market's expectation for demand recovery is rising. The steel price has a downward risk, and policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session trends need attention [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+10.00). The positions increased by 12200 lots to 45.96 lots. The weighted positions were 75.65 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.94 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.15% [4]. Strategy Views - During the holiday, steel mill production was stable, and overseas ore shipments were stable. The short - term iron ore price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - Manganese silicon (SM601 contract) closed up 0.17% at 5768 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5670 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92 yuan/ton. Ferrosilicon (SF511 contract) closed down 0.40% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 228 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon may be driven by manganese ore disturbances if the black - building materials sector strengthens. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black - building materials sector with low operation cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8640 yuan/ton, with no change. The weighted positions increased by 8057 lots to 407790 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with bases of 660 yuan/ton and 260 yuan/ton respectively [13]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. If production cuts occur in the southwest during the dry season and demand remains stable, the far - month contract valuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [14][15]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 50765 yuan/ton, down 1.16% (-595). The weighted positions increased by 7663 lots to 234012 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with a basis of 1785 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Views - The current polysilicon price lacks upward drive. If leading enterprises carry out maintenance in November, the fundamentals may improve, and attention should be paid to policy changes [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1218 yuan/ton, up 0.66% (+8). The inventory increased by 346.9 million boxes (+5.84%). The long positions of the top 20 increased by 91284 lots, and the short positions increased by 131962 lots [19]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1250 yuan/ton, down 0.40% (-5). The inventory decreased by 10.41 million tons. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 41693 lots, and the short positions increased by 27467 lots [21]. Strategy Views - Glass: The terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it more positively in the short - term and pay attention to policy trends [20]. - Soda ash: The domestic soda ash market is generally stable. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term [22].

金融衍生品研究所 基本面研发报告 金融衍生品月报 2025 年 09 月 29 日 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号： F3053225 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015885 ：shenchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn 债市情绪仍显低迷，关注预期变化 ——国债期货 2025 年 10 月报 报告摘要 国债期货：国内基本面"弱现实"延续，四季度经济指标还面临去年 924 后基数抬升带 来的不利扰动。与此同时，央行对流动性的呵护态度也暂未改变，这对债市也构成一定支撑。 不过，"反内卷"政策导向意味着内需不再过度依赖具有生产属性的投资端，或有助于 更长周期维度的供需再平衡，叠加当下部分科技行业景气度较高且投资者对即将公布的"十 五五"规划也有所期待，随着地缘扰动的阶段性缓和以及美联储重启降息进程，"强预期" 似乎更多主导宏观叙事，权益市场整体不弱则进一步放大了这种乐观情绪。 除此之外，潜在的公募债基赎回费率与税收政策调整还从投资者行为角度进一步加剧了 债市波动。赎回压力下，债基持仓较高券种和期限的局部调整幅度也相对更大。 短期来看，债市情绪整体仍显低迷。但从配置角度上来说，我们认为国债至少在对冲 ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a mixed performance with more stocks declining than rising, despite the index approaching 3900 points, reflecting a sense of anxiety as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches [1][3] - There is a notable trend of capital flowing into Hong Kong stocks, which are performing better than A-shares, indicating a structured market behavior where overseas funds typically invest in ADRs, then Hong Kong stocks, and finally A-shares [5][6] Investment Trends - Technology stocks remain favored by incoming foreign capital, as evidenced by the historical high achieved by "Ningde Times" [5] - Recent news from foreign media regarding advancements in DUV production and new data centers by China Unicom has generated positive sentiment in the market [5] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario, leading to volatile trading behaviors as investors react emotionally rather than strategically [6][8] - Institutional funds are becoming increasingly active, signaling a generally optimistic outlook for the market, with stocks in the "active zone" reaching new highs [8][10] Institutional Behavior - The phenomenon of "three consecutive increases" and "five consecutive increases" in institutional activity indicates a growing engagement from institutional investors [10] - Despite the increased activity, there remains a significant number of stocks in the "watching zone," suggesting that not all stocks are benefiting from the positive market sentiment [13] Data Insights - The frequent rotation of market hotspots has led to some investor frustration, but the underlying issue is a lack of access to real data, which hinders understanding of market trends [16] - The concept of "institutional inventory" suggests that stocks with prolonged institutional support are likely to experience significant price movements, and recent "shakeout" phenomena indicate strong institutional backing [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality", with the disk continuing the "Contango" structure. The short - term price of coking coal will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. The coke market has intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, and the short - term coke disk will fluctuate following coking coal [32][35] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the double - coke disk reached a stage high and then fluctuated weakly. Before the position limit of the 01 contract by the exchange, the trading volume of coking coal soared. After the position limit, the trading volume decreased and the disk volatility narrowed. As the speculative sentiment cooled and the 09 contract was about to enter the delivery month, the market trading gradually returned to reality. Although the procurement willingness of steel mills, coking enterprises and spot - futures traders weakened and the inventory showed a small accumulation inflection point, the high - level iron - water production supported the consumption of double - coke, and the price decline space was limited. The overall price fluctuated within a range in August [7] 2. Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of August 29, the operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.52%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%, and the daily output of clean coal was 25.98 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.72 tons. The operating rate of 523 sample mine enterprises was 84.04%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.18%, and the daily output of clean coal was 75.32 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54 tons. The supply of coking coal was relatively stable with limited incremental space [10] - In July 2025, China imported 962.3 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The import concentration increased. The import volume came from Mongolia, Russia, Canada, Australia and Indonesia. The total import volume of coking coal this year was less than that of the same period last year [11] Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 283.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.24 million tons and an increase of 35.36 million tons from the beginning of the month; the clean coal inventory of sample coal washing plants was 289.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 147.53 million tons and a slight increase of 3.47 million tons from the beginning of the month; the port coking coal inventory was 275.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.98 million tons and a slight decrease of 6.76 million tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory pressure was significantly reduced [15] - As of August 29, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 961.27 million tons, an increase of 109.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 11.2 days, an increase of 1.16 days compared with the same period last year; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 811.85 million tons, an increase of 77.39 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 13.25 days, an increase of 1.49 days compared with the same period last year. The downstream replenishment rhythm of coking coal slowed down [18] Coke Production - As of the week of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.36%, 3.74% higher than the same period last year, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 64.52 million tons, an increase of 0.77 million tons compared with the same period last year; the coke capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 84.99%, a decrease of 1.72% compared with the same period last year, and the daily output of coke was 46.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons compared with the same period last year. The overall capacity utilization rate decreased significantly at the end of the month due to environmental protection requirements [22] Coke Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, an increase of 59.74% compared with the same period last year and a slight decrease from the beginning of the month; the daily output of hot metal was 240.13 million tons, an increase of 19.24 million tons compared with the same period last year and little change from the beginning of the month; the weekly coke consumption was 108.06 million tons, an increase of 8.66 million tons compared with the same period last year and little change from the beginning of the month. The coke consumption was supported [25] - As of the week of August 29, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.62 million tons and continued to decline from the beginning of the month; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 610.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 68.19 million tons; the port coke inventory was 212.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.94 million tons. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was reduced [27] Coke Profit - As of the week of August 29, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises was 55 yuan/ton. After several rounds of price increases and the volatile operation of coking coal prices, the profits of coking enterprises improved significantly. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, and the eighth round of price increase was not implemented [28] 3. Future Market Outlook - The coking coal market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". The short - term price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. Pay attention to the incremental situation on the supply side after the parade [32] - The profits of coking enterprises have improved significantly. The game between steel and coke enterprises has intensified. The short - term coke disk will fluctuate following coking coal [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro data in July showed an overall decline, and the recovery momentum of the domestic economy still needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, with greater pressure on nominal GDP than real GDP. [3] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important, long - term, and continuous policy approach. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend, although the process may be tortuous. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Declined Month - on - Month - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3% (down 0.9 percentage points), medium - scale enterprises' was 49.5% (up 0.9 percentage points), and small - scale enterprises' was 46.4% (down 0.9 percentage points). [4] - Among the 5 sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it. [4] 2. CPI was Flat Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 3.6% Year - on - Year in July - In July 2025, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, with a 0.4% month - on - month increase. Food prices decreased while non - food prices increased. [8][9] - The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI. [11] 3. Both Exports and Imports Rebounded in July - In July, China's exports increased 7.2% year - on - year, imports increased 4.1% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was $98.24 billion, a decrease of $16.53 billion. [14] - Exports to the EU, ASEAN countries, and Japan increased, while the decline in exports to the US narrowed. Exports are likely to remain strong in 2025. [16] 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and M1 and M2 Growth Rates Further Rebounded - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Credit demand from residents and enterprises was insufficient, but the increase in government bond issuance offset it. [18][25] - At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 3.2%. [23] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth Declined - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, lower than expected. [26] - In 2025, from January to July, the growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all declined. [30] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it was Still at the Bottoming - Out Stage - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 4.0% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 6.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. [32] - The inventory of commercial housing decreased slightly. The "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle is emerging, and the drag on the macro economy will significantly narrow. [33][37] 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in July were weak, and the domestic economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. [38] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important long - term policy. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend. [40]

Core Viewpoint - Recent commodity futures have experienced significant price volatility, raising concerns about the healthy development of the futures market amid a stark contrast between strong macro expectations and weak industrial fundamentals [1] Investor Behavior - Investors need to respect the market and adhere to discipline, making rational decisions amidst significant market fluctuations. Many investors struggle to detach from their inherent thinking, leading to losses when attempting to short or chase prices [2][3] - Individual investors should recognize the high risks associated with futures trading, avoid the illusion of quick wealth, and maintain strict control over their risk exposure [3] Institutional Investor Role - Institutional investors should act as stabilizers in the market, conducting in-depth research on macro policies and industrial fundamentals to form independent investment logic, rather than merely following policy signals [2] Regulatory and Service Institutions - Futures exchanges must act decisively to cool down irrational market behaviors by implementing risk control measures such as adjusting trading limits and margin requirements [4] - Futures companies play a crucial role in risk management and should proactively educate clients about risks, monitor trading behaviors, and provide high-quality research to guide rational investment [5] Collaborative Governance - The stable and healthy development of the futures market is essential for protecting investors, especially those with lower risk tolerance. A collaborative effort among regulatory bodies, market participants, and investors is necessary to mitigate risks associated with the disparity between strong expectations and weak realities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market is experiencing significant volatility, particularly in the black and building materials sectors, leading to increased activity in risk control departments of futures companies [1] Group 1: Market Trends - On July 31, the black and building materials sectors saw a continued decline, with coking coal futures contracts hitting the limit down [1] - Coking coal prices have shown a significant drop, with the main contracts experiencing declines of approximately 7.69% to 8.00% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The previous surge in coking coal prices was driven by expectations of supply contraction due to "anti-involution" policies, which led to a decrease in coal inventory at coking coal mines [3] - As of the end of July, the inventory of coking coal at 523 coking coal mines fell below 3 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3] - Despite the price rebound, the overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied in the short term, with daily production of coking coal increasing for four consecutive weeks [3][4] Group 3: Price Transmission and Market Sentiment - The price increase in coking coal has not effectively transmitted to downstream products, as prices for related chemicals and steel have not risen proportionately [4] - Downstream coking enterprises are still facing losses, and there has been no significant increase in coke production [4] - Market sentiment is cooling, leading to a retreat in coking coal and glass prices from their highs, indicating a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The rebound in coking coal prices driven by "anti-involution" expectations is expected to stabilize, with a potential price correction ahead, possibly dropping below 1,000 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract [4] - Continuous monitoring of the "anti-involution" policies and their impact on the coking coal and glass industries is necessary [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bullish sentiment for polysilicon remains strong, with expectations of continued price increases driven by policy support and market dynamics [1][2][3] - Polysilicon futures saw a significant increase, reaching a limit up of 10.42%, indicating a strong market reaction and potential for further gains [1] - The supply side is stable with slight production increases in certain regions, while overall industry production is expected to grow, although demand remains weak [2][3] Group 2 - The market sentiment is primarily driven by policy expectations rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics, which remain loose [2][3] - There is a recommendation for traders to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, as the market is currently experiencing high bullish sentiment [3] - Attention should be paid to the performance of futures contracts, particularly the long-term contracts, which are expected to show overall strength [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rebound in soybean meal futures, with a further upward shift in price levels, driven by a "weak reality, strong expectations" sentiment in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Soybean meal futures continue to see a reduction in open interest, indicating a potential recovery in prices [1] - Institutional analysis suggests strong support for soybean meal prices from underlying market conditions [1] - The expectation of strong support at lower price levels for soybean meal is noted, indicating a bullish outlook [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On July 17, the coke main contract rallied at the end of the session, continuing its strong performance. The spot price of coking coal increased, leading to higher losses for coke enterprises and stronger cost support, which raised the expectation of coke price hikes. The futures market maintained a pattern of both supply and demand decline, but strong expectations dominated the market. Affected by multiple positive news, the coke main contract is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [5][31]. - On July 17, the coking coal main contract closed at 918.5 points, up 1.55% intraday. Although the short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, positive news has improved market sentiment. With strong expectations leading the market, coking coal futures are expected to remain strong in the short term [6][32]. Summary by Directory Industry News - In June 2025, China's raw coal output was 421.074 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 2.404559 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative raw coal output in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased by 10.1%, 0.7%, and 3.3% year - on - year respectively [8]. - On July 17, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market was strong. The highest transaction price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1320 yuan/ton, and local coal enterprises generally quoted 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat price) | 1220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price) | 1270 yuan/ton | 3.25% | 9.48% | - 21.60% | - 37.44% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 940 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 39.74% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1270 yuan/ton | 2.42% | 4.96% | - 14.77% | - 39.23% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1310 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.80% | - 14.38% | - 36.71% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1519.0 | 1.00 | 1519.5 | 1485.0 | 23460 | 1519 | 44754 | - 534 | | Coking Coal | | 918.5 | 1.55 | 919.0 | 890.0 | 992915 | 17586 | 551465 | - 10542 | [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), as well as other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][19][25]. Market Outlook - Coke is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term due to positive news and strong expectations. It is necessary to closely monitor domestic and foreign policies [5][31]. - Coking coal futures are expected to remain strong in the short term, with strong expectations leading the market. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to relevant policy dynamics [6][32].