1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Some spot prices of logs in Shandong and Taicang decreased this week. The delivery cost of the cheapest deliverable log in Shandong for the 05 contract is around 815 yuan/m³, and the current futures price above 820 yuan/m³ has priced in the expected increase in April and May to some extent. If the war between the US and Iran continues to drive up oil prices, the "strong expectation" logic will be gradually confirmed. The log futures showed a significant increase in positions and broke through the previous high this week, and the market tends to the "strong expectation" logic. Considering the above, one can consider going long with strict stop - loss [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Some spot prices of logs in Shandong and Taicang decreased. The current futures price has priced in the expected increase in April and May. If the US - Iran war drives up oil prices, the "strong expectation" logic will be confirmed. The futures market is more inclined to the "strong expectation" logic and it's hard to falsify it before the 05 contract delivery. It's advisable to consider going long with strict stop - loss [3]. - Log futures showed significant increase in positions. As of March 20, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 17,765 lots, a 39.2% increase from last week; the position of the main contract was 12,485 lots, a 52% week - on - week increase [11]. - Some specifications of log spot prices decreased. As of March 19, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large A radiata pine were 700/770/860 yuan/m³; 5.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 730/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, 3.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 730/780/810 yuan/m³; 5.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 760/800/870 yuan/m³ [15]. 3.2 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Log Import Volume - In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease and a 22.45% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total import volume was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% year - on - year decrease. - In December 2025, China imported about 1.3048 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 27.01% month - on - month decrease and a 13.02% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [21]. 3.2.2 New Zealand Log Shipment and Dispatch Volume - From March 7 - 13, 2026, 12 ships with 450,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a 1 - ship and 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 340,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a 0 - ship and 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease. - In the past four weeks, 49 ships with 1.87 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a 21 - ship and 820,000 - cubic - meter increase compared with the same period last month. Among them, 36 ships with 1.35 million cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a 13 - ship and 500,000 - cubic - meter increase compared with the same period last month [25]. 3.2.3 Trade Profit - As of March 9, 2026, the CFR quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in March was 117 - 122 US dollars/JAS cubic meters, a 5 - dollar increase from last month, and the quotation had relatively good transaction conditions [32]. 3.2.4 Domestic Log Inventory - As of March 6, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.13 million cubic meters, a 4.68% week - on - week increase; radiata pine inventory was 2.51 million cubic meters, a 3.72% week - on - week increase; North American timber inventory was 260,000 cubic meters, an 8.33% week - on - week increase; spruce/fir inventory was 160,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from last week. The total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1,955,000 cubic meters, a 1.82% increase from last week; in Jiangsu ports, it was 910,800 cubic meters, a 12.25% increase from last week [35]. 3.2.5 Domestic Port Log Out - bound Volume - From March 2 - 8, the average daily out - bound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 33,300 cubic meters, a 455% increase from last week. Among them, the average daily out - bound volume in Shandong ports was 23,800 cubic meters, a 349.06% increase from last week; in Jiangsu ports, it was 7,000 cubic meters [38]. 3.2.6 Wood Square Price and Processing Profit - As of March 15, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,240 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 1,310 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 44.4 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week; in Jiangsu, it was - 5 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week [41]. 3.2.7 Downstream Situation - As of March 13, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.9, a 0.5% month - on - month decrease; the Baltic Dry Index was 2,028, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating and Weakening" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the hot - rolled coil futures decreased in positions and oscillated weakly. It is expected to continue this trend in the short term. The short - term support is near the previous low, and the medium - term pressure is near the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the hot - rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. However, the improvement of export profit, the production resilience of steel mills, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downward space. Future focus should be on the inventory depletion speed in mid - to - late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and order fulfillment, and changes in supply - side production [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Thursday was 389,600 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 5,552 lots. The short - term average line fell below the 5 - day moving average of around 3,214, and the medium - term pressure of the 30 - day moving average at 3,256 and the 60 - day moving average at 3,269 still exists. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 21 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 301.11 million tons, a decrease of 8.50 million tons (-2.75%) compared to the previous period, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 281.57 million tons, an increase of 13.20 million tons (+4.92%) compared to the previous period, showing a steady recovery in consumption [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 381.61 million tons, an increase of 24.24 million tons (+6.78%) compared to the previous period, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 90.08 million tons, a decrease of 4.70 million tons (-4.96%) compared to the previous period, indicating inventory depletion in mills. The total inventory was 471.69 million tons, an increase of 14.68 million tons (+3.21%) compared to the previous period, showing that the overall inventory was still increasing [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arranging special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, strengthening infrastructure and "two new" project support, and boosting medium - to - long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not seen substantial improvement, and it will take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [5] - Bearish factors: slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The stainless steel market is currently in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality" with a bullish sentiment on the futures market, but the spot trading volume has not significantly increased, and the downstream resumption of work is slow. In the short - term, the price may continue to fluctuate in a slightly stronger trend, and the upward space is limited by high inventory and insufficient demand verification. If downstream procurement starts intensively in mid - March, it may trigger a phased breakthrough; otherwise, it may fall back to the cost support level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market On March 2, 2026, the closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract SS2604 was 14,385 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume significantly increased to 160,089 lots, a 24.6% increase from the previous day, while the open interest continued to shrink to 67,918 lots, a 6.4% decrease from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Spot Market The stainless steel spot market showed a stable and differentiated pattern on the day. The leading price of Chinese stainless steel spot was 13,631 yuan/ton. In the Wuxi market, the price range of 304 cold - rolled/2B four - foot trimmed edges was 14,520 - 15,020 yuan/ton, with some agents' quotes down 100 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled quotes slightly increased to 13,920 yuan/ton. In the Foshan market, the 304 cold - rolled quotes remained stable at 15,005 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled quotes decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,955 yuan/ton. Overall, spot trading was light, downstream procurement was mainly for restocking by old customers, new orders were limited, market sentiment was still cautious, and traders' quotes were mainly stable, with some regions seeing small price increases due to cost support and peak - season expectations [3]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Level**: In March, the planned production of stainless steel crude steel reached 3.6335 million tons, a significant 32.69% increase from the previous month. Among them, the planned production of the 300 series was 1.8948 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 43.24%, indicating that the production rhythm in the traditional peak season has significantly accelerated. The price of ferronickel has been continuously strengthening, with the mainstream quotes ranging from 1,080 to 1,100 yuan/nickel, and some scattered orders reaching 1,130 - 1,150 yuan/nickel, providing strong cost support for stainless steel [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the day, the K - line of the SS2604 contract closed positive, with a long body, a very short upper shadow, and an obvious lower shadow, indicating that the support at 14,100 yuan/ton was effective. In the MACD indicator, the DIF and DEA formed a golden cross near the zero axis, and the red bars began to expand, with the momentum changing from weak to strong. The RSI was reported at 58.3, in a neutral - to - strong range without over - buying. The Bollinger Bands' opening slightly narrowed, and the price was above the middle track, indicating that the short - term trend was bullish but the volatility was converging, and the game between long and short positions was approaching equilibrium [5]. 3.4 Market Outlook Under the impetus of cost support, increased production, and a slight reduction in inventory, the sentiment in the stainless steel market is bullish. However, the spot trading volume has not significantly increased, and the downstream resumption of work is slow. The market is still in a game stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". In the short - term, the price may continue to fluctuate in a slightly stronger trend, and the upward space is limited by high inventory and insufficient demand verification. If downstream procurement starts intensively in mid - March, it may trigger a phased breakthrough; otherwise, it may fall back to the cost support level [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rebar futures contract has shown a significant rebound near previous support levels, indicating a potential bottoming signal, with a notable increase in trading volume [1] Supply Side: Extremely Cautious Production Pace - As of February 20, 2026, the weekly production of rebar from 137 major steel mills was 1.7038 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 12,200 tons (0.72%) but a year-on-year decrease of 265,300 tons (13.47%) [3] - The production level post-Spring Festival remains low, reflecting a persistent lack of willingness among steel mills to resume production due to multiple factors, primarily profit margin pressures [3] - The anticipated crude steel production control policies for 2026 have made steel mills more cautious in their production plans, leading to a new normal of low supply, which provides a buffer for price stability [4] Demand Side: Signs of Recovery Beneath the Surface - The apparent weekly consumption of rebar was 411,600 tons as of February 20, 2026, a decrease of 607,500 tons (59.61%) week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 1.2746 million tons (75.59%) [5] - This consumption figure reflects the continuation of halted construction during the Spring Festival rather than a collapse in demand [5] - The real test for demand will come in the following weeks as workers return post-Lantern Festival and temperatures rise, determining if rebar consumption can quickly recover to normal levels [5] Inventory Side: Passive Accumulation at Absolute Low Levels - As of February 20, 2026, total rebar inventory was 7.1604 million tons, an increase of 1.2922 million tons (22.02%) week-on-week, but a year-on-year decrease of 1.3161 million tons (15.53%) [8] - The significant accumulation of inventory post-Spring Festival is a historical norm due to reduced production and halted sales, yet the current inventory level is relatively low compared to the past three years [8] Market Outlook - The current rebar fundamentals can be summarized as: extremely cautious supply providing price support, demand at a low point but showing signs of potential recovery, and manageable inventory levels that are lower year-on-year [11] - The recent bullish movement in the market reflects a collective expression of macro expectations, but whether this will lead to a sustained trend reversal depends on the realization of macro policies and actual demand recovery [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" with inventory accumulation and weak demand pressuring short-term prices, but export profit improvement, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations providing bottom support and limiting the downside space [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 323 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 523,081 lots, showing increased volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,185 yuan, and the high was 3,242 yuan. It rebounded and rose sharply after a significant reduction in positions in the afternoon. In terms of the moving average, it briefly broke through the 5-day moving average in the short term, but there was still pressure from the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term. It closed at 3,236 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan, a 1.19% increase [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The production of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly and remained stable. In the week of February 13, 2026, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.0776 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 79.14%, indicating strong production resilience of long-process steel mills [4] - **Demand**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly shrank, and the apparent consumption continued to weaken. Before the festival, the inventory shifted from de-stocking to stockpiling, and the supply-demand contradiction shifted to the circulation link [4] - **Inventory**: The stockpiling accelerated, and the pressure was concentrated on the social end. As of February 13, 2026, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coils was 2.8045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 21,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 787,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons; the total inventory reached 3.592 million tons, showing a significant accumulation compared to before the festival. Although the absolute inventory level was still lower than the historical high, the stockpiling speed accelerated, and the market was cautious about the post-festival destocking rhythm [4] - **Policy**: There were internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated the sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and with the approaching of the Two Sessions, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in increased, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6] Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures rebounded sharply with a significant reduction in positions and increased volume in the afternoon, mainly due to the continuous rise in the stock market and the emission reduction control faced by some steel mills in the north with the approaching of the Two Sessions, leading short sellers to choose to leave the market and wait and see. In the short term, it broke through the 5-day moving average, and in the medium term, attention should still be paid to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. It is recommended to be cautious. Fundamentally, the current hot-rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show that the arrival volume has decreased, and the supply pressure has eased. The demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The contradictions in the fundamentals are not prominent, but the futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the overall market remains volatile [4]. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly during the day, closing at 783 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 305,000 lots, the open interest was 521,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.969 billion yuan. The futures market tested the short - term support level near 780 again [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 5 yuan to 789 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 5 yuan to 675 yuan/ton. The swaps main contract was at 102.8 (-1.05) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1]. - Basis and spread: The converted price of Qingdao Port PB powder on the futures market was 822.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 39.5 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion. The spread between the May and September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September and January contracts was 12.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis. The futures market should be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to further testing near the lower support, with limited downward space [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrival volume continued to weaken, and supply was expected to be affected by weather. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, the rigid demand was stable, the inventory replenishment speed of steel mills accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly. With the approaching Spring Festival, the inventory replenishment speed accelerated, and the total inventory pressure was still increasing. The short - term supply pressure eased, but the inventory pressure increased. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre - festival inventory replenishment on the demand side supported the iron ore price. The supply - demand situation in reality remained to be verified [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: This week, the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations" continued. The pace of domestic demand recovery was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro - environment was mainly for support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [3]. - Overseas: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down, the savings rate was at a low level, and consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal momentum. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. In this context, the market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of a change in the Fed's leadership, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased, and asset pricing differentiation widened [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current asphalt market shows a typical pattern of "strong expectations, weak reality." The upward movement of the futures market is mainly driven by the expected increase in raw material costs due to geopolitical factors, while the spot market is constrained by weak fundamentals, leading to a significant weakening of the basis. The deeply discounted structure may attract arbitrage funds, potentially bringing selling pressure to far - month contracts. The main upward driver for prices remains the cost side, and the key risk lies in the confirmation of the "weak reality" [54]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In January, affected by tight raw materials and strong oil prices, asphalt prices rebounded from the bottom, with a cumulative increase of 14.5% since the beginning of the year. Tensions in the Middle East and restricted imports of diluted asphalt supported the market [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The risk of intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has increased, with potential impacts on the oil market. The outcome of US military intervention will determine the direction of oil prices. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues in a pattern of "fighting while negotiating," with limited short - term direct impact on oil prices [9][10]. - **OPEC+ Policy**: OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in January and reaffirmed the plan to suspend production increases in the first quarter. The group's crude oil production decreased month - on - month in December. The suspension of production increases provides support for oil prices [13]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed paused interest rate cuts, but there were internal disagreements. The market expects no interest rate cuts in the next two meetings under Powell, but Trump's potential new Fed chair appointment may increase the market's expectation of rate cuts [16]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: In January, domestic asphalt production decreased month - on - month, and refinery operating rates also declined. If raw material imports are restricted, the cost of the industry may rise, and the operations of local refineries may be restricted [17][23]. - **Demand**: In January, domestic asphalt shipments decreased month - on - month, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity declined seasonally. The demand is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival [25][27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In December, asphalt imports decreased month - on - month with a slight decline in the average import price, while exports increased month - on - month with a slight decline in the average export price [32][37]. - **Inventory**: In January, factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories entered a cumulative cycle. Factory inventories may face further accumulation pressure in the off - season [42][46]. - **Price Difference**: In January, the cracking spread of asphalt remained high, and the processing profit of diluted asphalt rebounded. The basis of asphalt weakened significantly under the "strong expectations, weak reality" background [50].

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Although the inventory pressure is increasing, the demand-side restocking before the Spring Festival supports the ore price. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis, with the futures at a discount [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated within the day, closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.88% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 278,000 lots, the open interest was 541,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.424 billion yuan. The futures price may continue to be slightly strong in the near future [1] - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties and swaps declined slightly. The basis widened slightly, and the iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while those from Brazil and non-mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, with supply-side disturbances expected due to weather. The molten iron output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the steel mill profit margin weakened. The steel mills' restocking speed accelerated, and the inventory pressure continued to accumulate [2] - The decrease in arrivals eased the short-term supply pressure, but the inventory pressure continued to increase. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre-festival restocking on the demand side supported the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remained to be verified [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, the week continued the pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand was slow, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the willingness of residents and enterprises for long - term financing was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented, and the market was waiting for policy effects and data confirmation [3] - Overseas, the US consumption remained resilient, but its internal driving force was weakening. Core inflation continued to cool, but the stickiness of service items remained. The market's focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, and the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased [3] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply pressure has eased slightly, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market shows a slightly bullish and volatile trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows an overall trend of gradually strengthening in a volatile manner. The supply pressure has eased due to reduced arrivals, the demand side has stable rigid demand, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the market has turned stronger again [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **期货价格**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate strongly during the day, closing at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton or 1.98% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 308,000 lots, the open interest was 555,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.758 billion yuan. The futures price stopped falling near the predicted support level of 780 and may continue to fluctuate strongly in the near term, suggesting a low - buying strategy [1]. - **现货价格**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 7 to 797 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder rose 7 to 680 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 104.75 (+1.7) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices strengthened again [1]. - **基差价差端**: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 832.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 19.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis, and the futures market should be treated with a view of fluctuating strength [1]. 基本面梳理 - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to arrivals. There were expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory of berthed ships increased, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still increasing [2]. 宏观层面 - **Domestic**: This week, the domestic market continued the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The recovery rhythm of domestic demand was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro environment was mainly for bottom - support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - **Overseas**: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down and the savings rate was at a low level. Consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, and the internal driving force weakened. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. The market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased and asset pricing differentiation widened [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the support for risk - assets from the domestic fundamentals is limited in the short - term. Overseas, the macro - environment is still favorable for the resilience of risk - assets, but policy uncertainty is increasing, leading to greater differentiation in asset pricing. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; maintain a neutral stance on national bonds and standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate long positions in precious metals; over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. - For different sectors, most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4,732.8, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 0.5%, and a monthly increase of 2.89%. The Shanghai 50 futures price was 3,069.8, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a monthly increase of 1.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8,622, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.42%, and a monthly increase of 17.1%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8,377.8, with a daily increase of 0.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.63%, and a monthly increase of 12.66% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.87, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly decrease of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.1%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.21, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.32%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.09, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and a monthly increase of 0.61% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9545 pips, with a daily increase of 3, a weekly decrease of 87, and a monthly decrease of 345 [2]. 2. Fluctuations in Popular Industries - On January 28, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals had the highest daily increase of 6.02%, with a weekly increase of 10.59% and a monthly increase of 31.19%. The defense and military industry had a daily decrease of 1.71%, a weekly decrease of 4.62%, and a monthly increase of 7.96%. The banking industry had a daily decrease of 0.63%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%, and a monthly decrease of 7.3% [5]. 3. Fluctuations in Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: On January 27, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at $62.57, with a daily increase of 3.2%, a weekly increase of 2.11%, and a monthly increase of 8.99%. ICE Brent crude oil was priced at $66.76, with a daily increase of 3.07%, a weekly increase of 2.02%, and a monthly increase of 9.6% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was priced at $5,179.6, with a daily increase of 1.91%, a weekly increase of 3.94%, and a monthly increase of 19.56%. COMEX silver was priced at $112.345, with a daily decrease of 2.74%, a weekly increase of 8.8%, and a monthly increase of 58.28% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was priced at $13,006.5, with a daily decrease of 1.46%, a weekly decrease of 0.93%, and a monthly increase of 4.08%. LME aluminum was priced at $3,207, with a daily increase of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 1.06%, and a monthly increase of 7.01% [8]. 4. Macro Highlights - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic macro - situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, price levels remain low, and credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in an observation and verification stage, and the improvement in physical work and demand is more likely to be concentrated in the first quarter. In the short - term, the direct support from domestic fundamentals for risk - assets is limited [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is falling slowly, and policy uncertainty is increasing. The US consumption has some resilience, but its internal driving force is weakening. The core inflation is cooling, but the decline is not smooth. The market's focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, increasing policy uncertainty [14]. - **Large - scale Assets**: It is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities (CSI 500 stock index futures), standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures, standard - allocate long positions in precious metals, over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals, and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. 5. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards, stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and national bond futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [15]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on European routes is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward trend, such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. [15]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Most energy and chemical varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some agricultural products such as corn/starch, live pigs, etc. are expected to fluctuate downwards, while cotton is expected to fluctuate upwards [17]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [17].