在产蛋鸡存栏跌破13亿只 钢联最新数据显示，2025年12月在产蛋鸡存栏降至12.95亿只，主产同比上个月下降了0.07亿只，但主产占比超过80%，存栏结构偏年轻化，预计后续去化 阻力较大；商品代鸡苗销量从2025年11月开始止跌，重回增长趋势；淘鸡日龄仍停留在488天。整体看来，行业尚未进入产能的加速淘汰期。 （来源：蛋品世界WECD） 2025年鸡蛋的价格持续低迷，在产蛋鸡存栏居高不下，行业始终没有看到产能的加速淘汰。从期货价格来看，近月价格低，远月价格高，呈现"弱现实， 强预期"的结构。 全国鸡蛋出场价格及饲料市场价格 | 日期 | 鸡蛋价格 | 饲料价格 | 蛋料比价 | 蛋料比价 | 预期盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元/公斤) | (元/公斤) | | 平衡点 | (元/只) | | 本周 | 6.00 | 2.64 | 2.35 | 2.84 | -25.87 | | 环比 | -2.28% | 0.00 | -2.08% | 0.35% | | 本周全国蛋料比价为2.35，环比下跌2.08%。按目前价格及成本推算，未来蛋鸡养殖每 ...

近期，焦煤期货主力2605合约在经历了连续阴跌后开始触底反弹，价格从低位回升至1100元/吨附近， 近月2601合约同步出现修复性上涨。这一轮行情并非单一因素作用的结果，而是宏观政策预期和产业供 需变化的综合体现。虽然盘面价格受情绪带动出现了阶段性上涨，但是现货市场的基本面尚未发生根本 性扭转，上下游产业链在价格传导机制上依然存在阻滞。 从宏观面和政策层面来看，12月中旬发布的《煤炭清洁高效利用重点领域标杆水平和基准水平（2025年 版）》成为市场情绪转折的关键因素。该文件对燃煤发电及供热的煤耗指标进行了更严格的约束，市场 认为这一政策将推动行业"反内卷"，即通过提高能效标准来淘汰落后产能，进而抑制低价同质化竞争。 这种政策导向虽然主要针对动力煤领域，但对煤炭产业链整体估值的重塑起到了连带作用，市场对高品 质炼焦煤的长期稀缺性产生了新的预期。与此同时，中央经济工作会议关于整治过度竞争的表态，为处 于估值低位的黑色系商品提供了情绪支撑。焦煤期货价格在短期内快速拉升，与现货市场相对平淡的成 交氛围形成了鲜明对比。 铁水产量的下降直接导致钢厂对焦炭和焦煤的消耗量减少。焦钢企业的冬储补库一般在春节前7～12周 开始， ...

研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 11 月经济数据继续走弱，内需不足是主要制约 ——11 月宏观数据分析 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 对此，我们认为，需要理性客观的看待当前宏观经济，房地产市场的转型 调整、见底回升尚需时间，国内经济的复苏不能一蹴而就。当前外部不稳定不 确定因素较多，国内有效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战。这要求实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长。 未来，"扩内需、反内卷"仍将是长期的、重要的政策抓手。当前金融市 场处在"弱现实、强预期"状态，市场情绪持续好转。尽管节奏上充满波折， 2025 年宏观经济和资产价格，均有望延续向上修复的整体趋势，在此过程中需 保持耐心。 一、制造业 PMI 环比回升，但仍低于荣枯线 11 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分 点，景气水平有所改善。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点，低于临界点；中、小型企业 PMI 分别为 48.9%和 49.1% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect failed again, with both the stock and bond markets rising and falling together. Long-term interest rates fluctuated sharply between the "reality of loose money" and the "frustration of strong expectations," and the oversold of ultra-long-duration assets reflected the crowding of market funds and the fragility of market sentiment [3][91]. - In the last four trading weeks of the year, the fact that the "sales new rules" have not fully "landed" remains the main market concern, but the approaching important meetings have restored the "loose money" expectation. The focus of market gaming may still be the emotional fluctuations caused by marginal policy changes [3][92]. - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left-side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Important Matters - On December 5, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multi - price - winning bidder - selected买断式逆回购 operation. The net investment of the central bank in treasury bonds in November was 5 billion yuan, far lower than the market's relatively optimistic expectation of 100 billion yuan. On December 5, 2025, six major banks stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificate of deposit products [6][9]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From December 1 to 5, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of - 84.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the basic currency will have a maturity withdrawal of 66.38 billion yuan from December 8 to 12, 2025. At the beginning of the month, the fund market was generally loose, and DR001 fell below 1.3% for the first time this year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit last week was 495.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.54 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing scale was 47.1 billion yuan, an increase of 289.69 billion yuan from the previous week. The issuance interest rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit generally increased last week [25][31][34]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply scale of interest - rate bonds decreased last week, with an actual issuance of 430.717 billion yuan and a net financing of 128.844 billion yuan. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds in 2025 was about 6.23 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 7.11 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared with the average values from 2021 to 2024. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 2.29 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [38][44][48]. - In the secondary market, at the beginning of the month, the short - term interest rates were stable, while the ultra - long - term interest rates continued to be affected by market noise and increased significantly. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.01BP, - 1.46BP, 1.39BP, 0.17BP, 0.68BP, and 7.20BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y treasury bond yield spread increased from 43.95BP to 44.64BP. The yields of the same - term CDB bonds also changed, and the 10Y - 1Y CDB bond yield spread increased from 34.94BP to 37.66BP. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds increased slightly [51]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the leveraged trading scale was generally stable due to the relatively loose fund market. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds within 5 years and local bonds within 10 years; rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds and treasury bonds over 5 years; insurance companies continued to prefer local bonds over 10 years; securities firms and funds were the main sellers last week [68][73]. - In October 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.77%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from September. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in October 2025 were about 110.31%, 191.29%, and 132.17% respectively [68]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures increased by 2.47% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 5.02% week - on - week, the cement price index decreased by 0.40% week - on - week, and the South China Glass Index decreased by 4.70% week - on - week. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 9.92% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.31% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.09% and 1.91% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.07 last week [88]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The report maintains the judgment of a recovery market in December but expects the downward space of interest rates to be relatively limited. It is recommended to adopt a left - side layout configuration rhythm, prioritize switching positions to medium - and short - term treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, and pay attention to trading opportunities of secondary perpetual bonds of the same term. As the meeting window approaches, gradually increase the offensive nature of the portfolio, control the overall duration center of the portfolio within the medium - to long - term range of 5 - 7 years, and avoid high - congestion assets [3][92][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a weak reality in the short - term, but the market's expectation for the recovery of steel demand is rising with the macro - environment turning loose. Steel prices still have a downward risk from the fundamental perspective, and policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session trends need to be focused on [2]. - For iron ore, short - term iron ore prices may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [5]. - The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise, similar to the situation in 2023. The market is expected to be driven by policies, and the black - building materials sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - position allocation in the long - term [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [15]. - For polysilicon, the price may be supported if leading enterprises carry out maintenance in November, and attention should be paid to policy changes [17]. - Glass is recommended to be viewed more positively in the short - term, and attention should be paid to policy trends. Soda ash is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3096 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.781%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10110 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 34297 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (1.014%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions increased by 24718 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The steel showed a volatile and stronger trend. The real demand during the holiday was weak, but the market's expectation for demand recovery is rising. The steel price has a downward risk, and policy signals and the Fourth Plenary Session trends need attention [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+10.00). The positions increased by 12200 lots to 45.96 lots. The weighted positions were 75.65 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.94 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.15% [4]. Strategy Views - During the holiday, steel mill production was stable, and overseas ore shipments were stable. The short - term iron ore price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens. Attention should be paid to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - Manganese silicon (SM601 contract) closed up 0.17% at 5768 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5670 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92 yuan/ton. Ferrosilicon (SF511 contract) closed down 0.40% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 228 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon may be driven by manganese ore disturbances if the black - building materials sector strengthens. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black - building materials sector with low operation cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8640 yuan/ton, with no change. The weighted positions increased by 8057 lots to 407790 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with bases of 660 yuan/ton and 260 yuan/ton respectively [13]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. If production cuts occur in the southwest during the dry season and demand remains stable, the far - month contract valuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand structure after the holiday [14][15]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 50765 yuan/ton, down 1.16% (-595). The weighted positions increased by 7663 lots to 234012 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with a basis of 1785 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Views - The current polysilicon price lacks upward drive. If leading enterprises carry out maintenance in November, the fundamentals may improve, and attention should be paid to policy changes [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1218 yuan/ton, up 0.66% (+8). The inventory increased by 346.9 million boxes (+5.84%). The long positions of the top 20 increased by 91284 lots, and the short positions increased by 131962 lots [19]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1250 yuan/ton, down 0.40% (-5). The inventory decreased by 10.41 million tons. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 41693 lots, and the short positions increased by 27467 lots [21]. Strategy Views - Glass: The terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it more positively in the short - term and pay attention to policy trends [20]. - Soda ash: The domestic soda ash market is generally stable. It is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic "weak reality" continues, and the economic indicators in Q4 face the unfavorable impact of the higher base after September 24 last year. The central bank's attitude of caring for liquidity remains unchanged, which supports the bond market. However, the "anti-involution" policy and the high prosperity of some technology industries, along with the easing of geopolitical disturbances and the Fed's interest rate cut, make the "strong expectation" the dominant force in the macro narrative. The potential adjustment of public bond fund redemption fees and tax policies exacerbates bond market volatility. In the short term, bond market sentiment is still sluggish, but treasury bonds have an irreplaceable role in hedging potential expectation differences [3][57]. - In terms of operations, in the short term, investors are advised to be cautious about the TL contract and hold a small amount of long positions in bond futures. The TF contract may be the best option. For arbitrage, if the market expectation is revised or extreme sentiment causes an over - adjustment in the bond market, the TL contract can be considered for flattening the curve and reverse arbitrage operations, but the timing needs to be observed [4][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - In September, the bond market performance was somewhat differentiated. The short - and medium - term bonds were generally in a volatile range, while the long - term bonds adjusted significantly under the influence of "strong expectations" and bond fund redemption pressure, and the yield curve became steeper. As of September 29, the monthly returns of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were - 0.09%, - 0.03%, - 0.15%, and - 2.44% respectively. The overall weak bond market sentiment made the market valuation slightly low, and the IRR of the main contracts of bond futures at all maturities was around 1.3 - 1.4% [6]. 3.2 "Weak Reality" Continues, "Strong Expectation" Dominates the Narrative - The domestic economic data in August released in September continued to weaken marginally, with both supply and demand falling short of expectations. Investment, consumption, and foreign trade all showed different degrees of decline. The market believes that the "stall" of the investment end is a phased weakening driven by "anti - involution" and a policy choice. With the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the potential spill - over effect of overseas monetary policy and the high prosperity of domestic high - tech industries make the "strong expectation" the dominant force in the macro narrative, which is reflected in the bond yield curve [11][18][22]. 3.3 Price Repair is Differentiated, Downward Transmission Needs Observation - In August, the CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year and 0.0% month - on - month, both lower than expected. The decline in the year - on - year CPI was mainly due to weak food prices, while the month - on - month decline was more affected by seasonal factors. The core CPI reached a new high this year, but its repair momentum still needs to be improved. The PPI showed signs of bottom - up repair, but the performance of upstream production materials and downstream living materials was still differentiated. The profit of industrial enterprises increased significantly in August, but it was mainly due to the low base last year, and the improvement in demand was not obvious. In the future, the PPI may continue to rise year - on - year, but the price transmission and the base effect need to be observed [23][24][30]. 3.4 Social Financing Growth Peaked and Declined, M1 Growth Slowed - In August, new RMB loans were lower than expected, and the social financing growth showed signs of peaking. Although the real estate sales data in September showed marginal improvement, considering the high base last year and the front - loaded fiscal efforts this year, it is likely that the social financing growth has peaked this year. The slowdown in social financing affected deposit creation and money supply. The M1 growth continued to rise but is expected to have limited upward space [32][36][43]. 3.5 The Central Bank Cares for Liquidity, but Further Easing is Difficult in the Short Term - In September, the market capital tightened slightly. The central bank took measures to maintain market liquidity, but the current capital price is within the central bank's acceptable range, and further significant decline requires a significant increase in market interest rate cut expectations. The central bank's attitude towards the economic situation is more optimistic, and it emphasizes the implementation of existing policies and the prevention of capital idling [46][47][48]. 3.6 Bond Fund Fees May be Adjusted, Preventive Redemption Increases Market Volatility - In September, the CSRC revised the regulations on public bond fund sales fees, which may affect the stability of bond fund liabilities. As the quarter - end approached, preventive redemptions increased, exacerbating market volatility. If the final regulations are similar to the draft, the bond market may experience a phased over - adjustment; otherwise, the market sentiment may stabilize [55][56]. 3.7 Future Outlook - The "weak reality" of the domestic economy continues, and the bond market is supported by the central bank's liquidity care. However, the "strong expectation" dominates the macro narrative, and the potential adjustment of bond fund fees and tax policies increases market volatility. Treasury bonds can hedge potential expectation differences. In the short term, investors are advised to be cautious about the TL contract and hold a small amount of long positions in bond futures. For arbitrage, the timing needs to be observed [57][59].

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a mixed performance with more stocks declining than rising, despite the index approaching 3900 points, reflecting a sense of anxiety as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches [1][3] - There is a notable trend of capital flowing into Hong Kong stocks, which are performing better than A-shares, indicating a structured market behavior where overseas funds typically invest in ADRs, then Hong Kong stocks, and finally A-shares [5][6] Investment Trends - Technology stocks remain favored by incoming foreign capital, as evidenced by the historical high achieved by "Ningde Times" [5] - Recent news from foreign media regarding advancements in DUV production and new data centers by China Unicom has generated positive sentiment in the market [5] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario, leading to volatile trading behaviors as investors react emotionally rather than strategically [6][8] - Institutional funds are becoming increasingly active, signaling a generally optimistic outlook for the market, with stocks in the "active zone" reaching new highs [8][10] Institutional Behavior - The phenomenon of "three consecutive increases" and "five consecutive increases" in institutional activity indicates a growing engagement from institutional investors [10] - Despite the increased activity, there remains a significant number of stocks in the "watching zone," suggesting that not all stocks are benefiting from the positive market sentiment [13] Data Insights - The frequent rotation of market hotspots has led to some investor frustration, but the underlying issue is a lack of access to real data, which hinders understanding of market trends [16] - The concept of "institutional inventory" suggests that stocks with prolonged institutional support are likely to experience significant price movements, and recent "shakeout" phenomena indicate strong institutional backing [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality", with the disk continuing the "Contango" structure. The short - term price of coking coal will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. The coke market has intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, and the short - term coke disk will fluctuate following coking coal [32][35] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the double - coke disk reached a stage high and then fluctuated weakly. Before the position limit of the 01 contract by the exchange, the trading volume of coking coal soared. After the position limit, the trading volume decreased and the disk volatility narrowed. As the speculative sentiment cooled and the 09 contract was about to enter the delivery month, the market trading gradually returned to reality. Although the procurement willingness of steel mills, coking enterprises and spot - futures traders weakened and the inventory showed a small accumulation inflection point, the high - level iron - water production supported the consumption of double - coke, and the price decline space was limited. The overall price fluctuated within a range in August [7] 2. Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of August 29, the operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.52%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%, and the daily output of clean coal was 25.98 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.72 tons. The operating rate of 523 sample mine enterprises was 84.04%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.18%, and the daily output of clean coal was 75.32 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54 tons. The supply of coking coal was relatively stable with limited incremental space [10] - In July 2025, China imported 962.3 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The import concentration increased. The import volume came from Mongolia, Russia, Canada, Australia and Indonesia. The total import volume of coking coal this year was less than that of the same period last year [11] Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 283.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.24 million tons and an increase of 35.36 million tons from the beginning of the month; the clean coal inventory of sample coal washing plants was 289.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 147.53 million tons and a slight increase of 3.47 million tons from the beginning of the month; the port coking coal inventory was 275.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.98 million tons and a slight decrease of 6.76 million tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory pressure was significantly reduced [15] - As of August 29, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 961.27 million tons, an increase of 109.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 11.2 days, an increase of 1.16 days compared with the same period last year; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 811.85 million tons, an increase of 77.39 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 13.25 days, an increase of 1.49 days compared with the same period last year. The downstream replenishment rhythm of coking coal slowed down [18] Coke Production - As of the week of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.36%, 3.74% higher than the same period last year, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 64.52 million tons, an increase of 0.77 million tons compared with the same period last year; the coke capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 84.99%, a decrease of 1.72% compared with the same period last year, and the daily output of coke was 46.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons compared with the same period last year. The overall capacity utilization rate decreased significantly at the end of the month due to environmental protection requirements [22] Coke Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, an increase of 59.74% compared with the same period last year and a slight decrease from the beginning of the month; the daily output of hot metal was 240.13 million tons, an increase of 19.24 million tons compared with the same period last year and little change from the beginning of the month; the weekly coke consumption was 108.06 million tons, an increase of 8.66 million tons compared with the same period last year and little change from the beginning of the month. The coke consumption was supported [25] - As of the week of August 29, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.62 million tons and continued to decline from the beginning of the month; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 610.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 68.19 million tons; the port coke inventory was 212.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.94 million tons. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was reduced [27] Coke Profit - As of the week of August 29, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises was 55 yuan/ton. After several rounds of price increases and the volatile operation of coking coal prices, the profits of coking enterprises improved significantly. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, and the eighth round of price increase was not implemented [28] 3. Future Market Outlook - The coking coal market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". The short - term price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. Pay attention to the incremental situation on the supply side after the parade [32] - The profits of coking enterprises have improved significantly. The game between steel and coke enterprises has intensified. The short - term coke disk will fluctuate following coking coal [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro data in July showed an overall decline, and the recovery momentum of the domestic economy still needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, with greater pressure on nominal GDP than real GDP. [3] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important, long - term, and continuous policy approach. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend, although the process may be tortuous. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Declined Month - on - Month - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3% (down 0.9 percentage points), medium - scale enterprises' was 49.5% (up 0.9 percentage points), and small - scale enterprises' was 46.4% (down 0.9 percentage points). [4] - Among the 5 sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it. [4] 2. CPI was Flat Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 3.6% Year - on - Year in July - In July 2025, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, with a 0.4% month - on - month increase. Food prices decreased while non - food prices increased. [8][9] - The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI. [11] 3. Both Exports and Imports Rebounded in July - In July, China's exports increased 7.2% year - on - year, imports increased 4.1% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was $98.24 billion, a decrease of $16.53 billion. [14] - Exports to the EU, ASEAN countries, and Japan increased, while the decline in exports to the US narrowed. Exports are likely to remain strong in 2025. [16] 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and M1 and M2 Growth Rates Further Rebounded - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Credit demand from residents and enterprises was insufficient, but the increase in government bond issuance offset it. [18][25] - At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 3.2%. [23] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth Declined - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, lower than expected. [26] - In 2025, from January to July, the growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all declined. [30] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it was Still at the Bottoming - Out Stage - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 4.0% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 6.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. [32] - The inventory of commercial housing decreased slightly. The "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle is emerging, and the drag on the macro economy will significantly narrow. [33][37] 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in July were weak, and the domestic economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. [38] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important long - term policy. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend. [40]

Core Viewpoint - Recent commodity futures have experienced significant price volatility, raising concerns about the healthy development of the futures market amid a stark contrast between strong macro expectations and weak industrial fundamentals [1] Investor Behavior - Investors need to respect the market and adhere to discipline, making rational decisions amidst significant market fluctuations. Many investors struggle to detach from their inherent thinking, leading to losses when attempting to short or chase prices [2][3] - Individual investors should recognize the high risks associated with futures trading, avoid the illusion of quick wealth, and maintain strict control over their risk exposure [3] Institutional Investor Role - Institutional investors should act as stabilizers in the market, conducting in-depth research on macro policies and industrial fundamentals to form independent investment logic, rather than merely following policy signals [2] Regulatory and Service Institutions - Futures exchanges must act decisively to cool down irrational market behaviors by implementing risk control measures such as adjusting trading limits and margin requirements [4] - Futures companies play a crucial role in risk management and should proactively educate clients about risks, monitor trading behaviors, and provide high-quality research to guide rational investment [5] Collaborative Governance - The stable and healthy development of the futures market is essential for protecting investors, especially those with lower risk tolerance. A collaborative effort among regulatory bodies, market participants, and investors is necessary to mitigate risks associated with the disparity between strong expectations and weak realities [6]