文 |无言 美国到底缺不缺电？最近这话题吵得挺凶。 微软CEO在播客里直言，AI行业不是计算资源多，而是缺电撑不起GPU运行。 还有人说数据中心抢电，让居民电费飙升影响消费。 这些说法到底靠谱吗？咱们今天就好好捋一捋。 短期不缺电中长期区域告急 短期来看美国电力供给还算充裕。未来一年，美国终端用电量确实在涨，疫情后商业部门用电带动，这 几年年均增速保持在2%左右。 但供给端更给力，2025到2026年，发电设备的平均利用天数会往下走。 这意味着，发电能力没被充分使用，供给增速能赶上甚至超过需求。 从2001年开始，美国电力行业的产能利用率就呈下滑态势。 这一趋势直观反映出，供给始终相对需求保持充裕。 当前除了德州的ERCOT区域，其他地区的电网都满足可靠性标准。 本来想是不是短期也会出现紧张，但后来发现完全没必要担心，至少未来一两年电力供给不用发愁。 但中长期情况就不一样了，到2030年麻烦可能要找上门。 数据中心的建设会带来大量新增用电需求。 美国能源部的报告显示，要是已经计划停运的发电机组真的关停，除了两个不受数据中心影响的区域， 其他地方电网都达不到可靠性要求。 就算发电机组不停运，德州和中大西洋地区也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall revenue of A-shares is expected to improve, with a year-on-year increase of 1.16% in Q3 2025, and net profit growth rebounding to 5.34% compared to Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in performance across the market [1][2]. Group 1: A-share Performance - In Q3 2025, the overall revenue of A-shares increased by 1.16% year-on-year, showing significant improvement compared to Q2 [1]. - The net profit growth rate for the parent company rose to 5.34%, an increase of 2.88 percentage points from Q2 [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) for A-shares in Q3 was 7.95%, up 0.22 percentage points from Q2, driven by improvements in net profit margin and equity multiplier [1]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The performance of 30 first-level industries showed significant structural differentiation, with the highest net profit growth in industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and media [2]. - The cyclical sectors displayed a "price drop, stable volume" pattern, with some industries like steel showing significant improvement in profit margins, while others like coal and petrochemicals faced declines [2][3]. - The technology sector remains a key driver of profit growth, with net profit growth rates for electronics, communications, and media at 38.3%, 8.8%, and 37.4% respectively [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The current investment focus may shift towards "anti-involution" strategies in upstream industries and the expansion of technology applications, with short-term attention on consumption-boosting policies leading to structural rebounds [5]. - Key investment themes include strengthening the technology sector, particularly in AI applications and terminal directions, and focusing on high-growth upstream sectors that are currently undervalued [5]. - There is potential for brokerage firms to benefit from market recovery and policy support, presenting a phase-specific investment opportunity [5].