本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月19日东京午盘日本国债价格因央行加息前景下跌】12月19日，受日本央行进一步加息前景影响， 东京午盘日本国债价格下跌。凯投宏观亚太地区资深学家称，日本央行鹰派信息显示紧缩周期会持续。 即便考虑关税政策，企业利润总体预计仍会维持在较高水平，这与10月有别，当时央行委员会担忧关税 对制造业利润有下行压力。 ...

12月12日，日本央行前执行理事Hideo Hayakawa预计，央行行长植田和男可能在2027年前实施最多四次 加息，其中三次将在下周广泛预期的加息行动之后进行。这一预测反映出日本货币政策正步入更为激进 的紧缩周期。 周三，Hayakawa在接受彭博采访时表示，日本央行"可能认为自己已经完全落后于曲 线"，植田和男即便在下周加息后也会暗示紧缩周期尚未结束。市场普遍预期日本央行将在12月19日会 议上将利率上调至0.75%，这将是自1月以来的首次加息行动。前央行高官警告称，首相高市早苗的扩 张性财政政策可能迫使日本央行加快加息步伐，并推高最终利率水平。高市上月推出的经济刺激方案规 模超出经济学家预期，可能加剧通胀压力。这一预测表明日本正告别超宽松货币政策时代，投资者需为 更频繁的政策调整做好准备。 另外，即便黄金价格屡创新高，美国私人投资者的黄金持有量却并未有太大变化——这一结论来自华尔 街大行高盛周三发布的分析报告。报告显示，自2000年代中期推出黄金交易所交易基金（ETFs）以 来，美国私人投资者对黄金ETF的持仓比例仍比2012年的峰值低了6个基点。截至今年第二季度，黄金 ETF仅占美国私人金融投资组合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under pressure following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand and optimism regarding a potential US-China trade agreement [1] Group 1: Currency Market Impact - The euro/yen pair found support around 177.50 after two consecutive days of decline [1] - The Bank of Japan's decision to keep the short-term interest rate target in the range of 0.4%-0.5% challenges the yen [1] - The yen's weakness is expected to continue as market sentiment improves due to optimism surrounding US-China trade discussions [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan has extended its pause on tightening monetary policy for the sixth meeting, following a 25 basis point hike in January [1] - Officials from the Bank of Japan are expected to discuss conditions for resuming rate hikes amid easing tariff pressures and rising domestic inflation [1] - The outlook is complicated by the new Prime Minister's support for loose monetary policy and resistance to early tightening [1] Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are meeting to discuss a wide range of topics, including tariffs on fentanyl, rare earths, soybean trade, and TikTok agreements [1] - The discussions are anticipated to influence market sentiment and the performance of the yen [1]

Market Expectations - The market anticipates a 2% (200 basis points) interest rate cut by the Russian Central Bank, marking the second consecutive cut and the end of the tightening cycle [1] Economic Slowdown - The Russian economy is experiencing a slowdown, with economic growth for the first 7 months of the year nearing the lower bound of the Central Bank's 1%-2% forecast [1] - Economists are warning that full-year economic growth may fall below the 1%-2% range [1] - July's industrial production grew by only 0.7%, falling short of June's 2% and approximately half of economists' expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank has unanimously decided that the tightening cycle is expected to come to an end [1] Group 1 - The decision by the Brazilian Central Bank reflects a consensus among its members [1] - The end of the tightening cycle indicates a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1]