新华财经北京8月20日电日本财务省周三公布的最新数据显示，该国7月份出口额同比大幅下降2.6%， 已连续第三个月陷入负增长，且跌幅超出经济学家此前预测的2.1%。与此同时，进口额虽同比下降 7.5%，但降幅低于市场预期的10.4%，导致日本当月录得1,175亿日元（约合7.955亿美元）的贸易逆 差，远逊于市场普遍预期的顺差1,962亿日元。 出口持续疲软，折射出美国关税继续对全球贸易造成压力。作为外向型经济体，日本高度依赖海外市场 消化其制造业产能，尤其是汽车、电子元件等支柱产业。然而，欧美央行持续加息引发的信贷紧缩效 应，正抑制海外消费者的购买力，叠加东南亚等新兴市场制造业崛起带来的订单分流，双重压力下日本 出口企业面临严峻挑战。 分析人士指出，若贸易逆差持续，日本央行或将被迫延长超宽松货币政策周期，进一步延缓日元正常化 进程。这对于饱受通胀困扰的家庭部门而言，意味着生活成本压力难以有效纾解。 （文章来源：新华财经） 进口数据的韧性暴露了日本经济的结构性矛盾。尽管能源价格回落缓解了部分成本压力，但日元贬值推 升的企业跨境采购成本，以及国内补库存需求的阶段性释放，使得进口降幅未达预期。这种"进多出 少"的格 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will likely choose to gradually sell its ETF holdings in the market rather than transferring them to the government when it decides to reduce its ETF holdings [1] Group 1: Background and Context - The BOJ began purchasing ETFs in 2010 as part of its ultra-loose monetary policy aimed at revitalizing the sluggish economy, a practice that has continued for 13 years [1] - Although the BOJ stopped purchasing ETFs last year, it has not yet announced when or how it will dispose of its approximately 37 trillion yen (about 252 billion USD) in ETF assets, which have a market value of around 70 trillion yen [1] Group 2: Principles for Asset Disposal - The BOJ has stated that it will base its decision to reduce these assets on three principles: selling at an appropriate price, avoiding losses for the central bank, and minimizing market disruption during the sale [1] - Goldman Sachs indicates that a method to satisfy these three conditions may involve gradually selling small amounts of ETFs in the open market [1]

日本银行总裁植田和男进入日银总部（17日上午，东京都中央区） 2026年4月以后每个季度的减少幅度将压缩到2000亿日元。此外，政策利率维持在 0.5%…… 日本银行（央行）在6月17日召开的货币政策会议上决定继续减少购买日本国债。每个季度的 减少幅度将从目前的4000亿日元压缩到2026年4月以后的2000亿日元，放缓减少速度。货 币政策将维持现状，政策利率维持在0.5%。 为了改善国债市场的流动性，针对向金融机构借出国债的"国债补充供应操作"，放宽了金融 机构在不返还的情况下直接购买时的条件。以日本央行持有额占发行余额80%以上的10年期 债券的一部分为对象，在市场持有额恢复到1.5万亿日元左右的水平之前，金融机构可以购 买。 日本央行维持了目前定为0.5%的政策利率。将继续关注美国特朗普政府的关税政策对日本经 济和物价的影响。在植田总裁的记者会上，关于紧张的中东局势和大米等食品价格上涨的发 言也备受关注。 美国关税政策的影响"尚未对经济统计和数据产生明显的负面影响"（日本央行相关人士）。 植田总裁在3日的演讲中表示，"这将成为拖累经济的因素"，计划今后密切关注对加薪和设备 投资等的负面影响。 版权声明： ...

北京时间5月2 1日，美国3 0年期国债收益率再次跃升至5%以上，在此几天前，由于穆迪下调 了美国信用评级，将其从Aa a下调至Aa 1，3 0年期美债收益率短暂突破5%，随后回落。 今年4月，美国关税政策曾引发大规模的美债抛售，在中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识后，抛 售在一定程度上得到了逆转。现在，穆迪下调美国信用评级以及市场对于美国减税法案的担 忧，重新点燃了"抛售美国"的交易，债券市场投资者的注意力迅速转向了美国的财政问题。 | 本期编辑 刘雪莹 | | --- | | 21君荐读 | | 21社论丨做强国内大循环，推动我国经济行稳致远 | | 21社论丨保持流动性充裕，支持经济回升向好 | | 21社论丨发挥金融支持民企的作用，为民营经济发展保驾护航 | 美国政府正在推动国会通过一项法案，这项税改方案将延长特朗普第一个总统任期内通过的 大规模减税政策，还计划大幅削减针对低收入人群的医疗保险计划和食品援助计划。据央视 新闻报道，这份预算和税收立法法案计划在未来十年内减税逾4万亿美元，并削减至少1 . 5万 亿美元支出。这项减税法案以及即将举行1 6 0亿美元2 0年期国债标售刺激了市场对于美债的抛 售。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has reignited concerns over US fiscal issues, leading to increased selling of US Treasury bonds [1][2] - The US government is pushing for a tax reform plan that aims to extend significant tax cuts from the Trump administration, which could result in over $4 trillion in tax cuts and at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade [2] - The combination of tariff policies and tax cuts is expected to impact the stability of the US economy and create unpredictable shocks to the financial system, prompting investors to express their concerns through the sale of US Treasuries [2] Group 2 - The deterioration of the US fiscal situation and increased economic uncertainty are causing sovereign funds and large investors to replace US Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, which may raise US financing costs and worsen the fiscal deficit [3] - The rise in US Treasury yields has not led to an increase in the dollar's value, indicating a continued outflow of long-term capital from the US [3] - Japan's bond market is also experiencing rising yields, with recent auctions for 30-year and 40-year bonds facing a lack of buyers, suggesting a failure of the yield curve control mechanism [3] Group 3 - The era of ultra-loose monetary policy in both the US and Japan may be coming to an end, which could have significant impacts on global capital markets and the real economy [4] - This external environment may lead to reduced external demand, potentially affecting exports from other countries, while also providing more autonomy for domestic monetary policies [4]