在随后发布的政策声明中，日本央行指出，只要经济增长前景未发生重大偏移，利率仍有进一步上行空间。当被问及今后加息的节奏时，日本央 行行长植田和男在记者会上表示，"这将取决于今后的经济和物价情况，我们将在每次货币政策会议上更新经济物价展望和风险，并作出适当的决 定。" 此次加息标志着日本正式告别了长达近30年的超宽松货币政策时代。自20世纪90年代初经济泡沫破裂以来，日本央行长期将信贷成本维持在极低 水平，以刺激企业投资与居民消费。大多数日本银行政策专家认为，日元近期的贬值是促使央行加息的关键原因。上个月，日元兑美元汇率跌至 10个月以来的最低水平，一度逼近1美元兑160日元的关键关口。 日元长期走弱引发的输入性通胀，已严重侵蚀日本家庭的购买力，日本核心通胀指标已连续3年多高于日本央行2%的目标水平。上周五公布的官 方数据显示，11月份剔除生鲜食品后的核心消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3%。 【环球时报特约记者 王莉】日本央行于12月19日采取大胆举措，将利率上调至30年来的最高水平，此举震动全球市场，并对日元汇率造成影响。 这一举动标志着日本货币政策的重大转变，随着日本利率的调整，日本国内和全球投资者都在密切 ...

12月12日，日本央行前执行理事Hideo Hayakawa预计，央行行长植田和男可能在2027年前实施最多四次 加息，其中三次将在下周广泛预期的加息行动之后进行。这一预测反映出日本货币政策正步入更为激进 的紧缩周期。 周三，Hayakawa在接受彭博采访时表示，日本央行"可能认为自己已经完全落后于曲 线"，植田和男即便在下周加息后也会暗示紧缩周期尚未结束。市场普遍预期日本央行将在12月19日会 议上将利率上调至0.75%，这将是自1月以来的首次加息行动。前央行高官警告称，首相高市早苗的扩 张性财政政策可能迫使日本央行加快加息步伐，并推高最终利率水平。高市上月推出的经济刺激方案规 模超出经济学家预期，可能加剧通胀压力。这一预测表明日本正告别超宽松货币政策时代，投资者需为 更频繁的政策调整做好准备。 另外，即便黄金价格屡创新高，美国私人投资者的黄金持有量却并未有太大变化——这一结论来自华尔 街大行高盛周三发布的分析报告。报告显示，自2000年代中期推出黄金交易所交易基金（ETFs）以 来，美国私人投资者对黄金ETF的持仓比例仍比2012年的峰值低了6个基点。截至今年第二季度，黄金 ETF仅占美国私人金融投资组合 ...

日本央行前执行理事Hideo Hayakawa预计，央行行长植田和男可能在2027年前实施最多四次加息，其中 三次将在下周广泛预期的加息行动之后进行。这一预测反映出日本货币政策正步入更为激进的紧缩周 期。 周三，Hayakawa在接受彭博采访时表示，日本央行"可能认为自己已经完全落后于曲线"，植田和男即 便在下周加息后也会暗示紧缩周期尚未结束。市场普遍预期日本央行将在12月19日会议上将利率上调至 0.75%，这将是自1月以来的首次加息行动。 Hayakawa表示，日本央行此次推迟加息不应受到指责，因为决策层必须关注特朗普关税措施以及高市 早苗担任新首相时机等不确定性因素。 "特朗普和高市早苗是日本央行无法控制的变数，"Hayakawa说道，"这确实令人遗憾。" 按照某些观点，等到1月份会更合理，这样当局能够收集更多关于明年加薪势头的数据。但植田和男几 乎明确表态了加息立场。 财政政策风险加剧 前央行高官警告称，首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策可能迫使日本央行加快加息步伐，并推高最终利率 水平。高市上月推出的经济刺激方案规模超出经济学家预期，可能加剧通胀压力。 这一预测表明日本正告别超宽松货币政策时代，投资者需为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is signaling a potential shift from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy, with indications that interest rate hikes could begin as early as December, amidst a backdrop of a weakening yen and rising inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The BOJ has adjusted its communication strategy to focus on the inflation risks posed by the weak yen, preparing the market for a possible interest rate hike in December [2]. - A recent survey indicates that just over half of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates at its next meeting on December 18-19, with projections suggesting rates could rise to 0.75% by March next year [2]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has surged to 1.821%, reflecting investor re-evaluation of Japan's monetary policy outlook [2]. Group 2: Government Stimulus and Economic Impact - The Japanese government has announced a massive stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, financed by issuing at least 11.5 trillion yen in new debt, marking the largest fiscal stimulus since the easing of pandemic restrictions [3]. - The government has abandoned its goal of achieving an annual fiscal surplus, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policy, especially as government debt exceeds twice the GDP [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Dilemma - There exists a "policy deadlock" where the need for low interest rates to support fiscal stimulus conflicts with the increased debt burden that would result from rate hikes [4]. - The lack of normalization in monetary policy amidst high inflation could heighten the risk of inflation detachment, while concerns over fiscal sustainability may elevate risk premiums on long-term Japanese government bonds [5]. Group 4: Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - Japan's economy has already shown negative growth in Q3, a direct impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly affecting the automotive sector [5]. - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 down from 1.2% to 0.7% [5]. - The volatility of the yen is influencing the broader Asian financial markets, with the Korean won showing heightened sensitivity to fluctuations in the yen [5]. Group 5: Potential for Currency Intervention - Japanese officials have reiterated their readiness to respond to excessive market volatility, echoing language used prior to significant interventions in the past [6]. - There is a risk of unexpected government intervention in the currency market, which could be considered a "black swan" event [5][6]. Group 6: Global Monetary Policy Dynamics - A successful rate hike in December could reshape asset pricing in Japan, marking a historic divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan, as both countries may adopt opposing monetary stances for the first time in decades [7]. - This convergence of policies could redefine the role of the yen within the global monetary system [7].

Core Viewpoint - Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda suggests that the yen may appreciate to a level of 120-130 yen per dollar due to a narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Currency Outlook - Kuroda indicates that the current exchange rate of approximately 153 yen per dollar is too weak and expects it to revert to 120-130 yen [1] - He believes that the contrasting monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will naturally reduce the interest rate differential, aiding the yen's appreciation [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Context - The Bank of Japan's recent decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, passing with a 7-2 vote, while two members proposed a 25 basis point increase [1] - Market reaction to the decision was relatively muted, with little change in the 10-year Japanese government bond yields and a slight decline in the yen [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Kuroda notes that Japan has achieved its 2% inflation target, with an economic growth rate of approximately 1.5% and an unemployment rate of only 2.6% [2] - He suggests that current economic conditions are suitable for the Bank of Japan to consider further interest rate hikes [2] Group 4: Future Expectations - A majority of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in January next year, despite two members opposing the current decision [2] - Kuroda highlights that the Bank of Japan's recent decisions reflect a desire to observe the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy, which has been less significant than previously anticipated [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced a historic moment as the Nikkei index surpassed 47,000 points, marking an unprecedented high, driven by the election of new Liberal Democratic Party leader, Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as a successor to Shinzo Abe's economic policies [1][3][9]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Nikkei index surged nearly 3% from the previous Friday, becoming a hot topic of discussion among both financial circles and the general public [1]. - Investors anticipated Takaichi's election would lead to a revival of aggressive economic stimulus policies reminiscent of the Abe era, prompting a sell-off of long-term Japanese government bonds [3][9]. - The Tokyo Stock Exchange saw widespread gains, with the broader TOPIX index also rising, reflecting a vibrant market atmosphere [3]. Group 2: Political Context - Takaichi's election as party leader was her third attempt, following a tumultuous period for the LDP after Abe's death, which saw frequent leadership changes [3][5]. - The LDP's declining support due to scandals created an opportunity for Takaichi, who shifted her public image to appear more moderate and relatable [5][6]. - Takaichi's economic policies have evolved, moving away from her previously radical proposals to focus on enhancing Japan's international competitiveness through investments in AI, cybersecurity, and energy independence [6][9]. Group 3: Economic Policies - Takaichi introduced more populist measures, such as a refundable tax credit plan and raising the income tax threshold for low-income groups, addressing the public's concerns about financial well-being [6][7]. - Her stance on sensitive issues, like visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, has softened, indicating a strategic move to unify support and broaden her appeal [7]. - Takaichi's campaign emphasized continuity with Abe's legacy, using slogans like "Japan is back" and publishing a book detailing her connection to Abe's policies [7][9]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The stock market's response included a drop in two-year government bond yields, suggesting reduced expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [9]. - The yen depreciated against the dollar, falling below the 149 mark, indicating market sentiment towards prolonged ultra-loose monetary policy under Takaichi's leadership [9]. - While the stock market surge has rekindled hope among the public, concerns remain about the actual impact of Takaichi's policies on long-term economic stability and growth [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has weakened significantly, with the USD/JPY exchange rate rising to 153.27, reflecting a cumulative rebound of over 7.5% since late April, prompting concerns from Japanese officials about potential market volatility and inflationary pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate has increased by more than 3.6% this week alone, indicating a rapid upward trend [1]. - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu expressed concerns over "one-sided rapid fluctuations" in the currency market and emphasized the need for stability that reflects economic fundamentals [1]. - The recent depreciation of the yen is attributed to policy expectation adjustments following the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, which has led to significant market volatility [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Newly elected Prime Minister Kishi Sayaka is expected to advocate for aggressive fiscal stimulus and maintain a loose monetary policy, which has diminished market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [2][3]. - Economic advisor Honda Yoshirou suggested that raising interest rates in October may be challenging, recommending a delay until December [2]. - The joint statement from the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan, which has underpinned over a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, may be re-evaluated under Kishi's leadership [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Following Honda's comments, the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in October dropped to below 20%, down from approximately 68% prior to the election [3]. - The options market indicates a shift in sentiment, with a decrease in demand for bullish yen positions, suggesting a cautious outlook for the yen in the short term [3][4]. - Despite short-term bearish sentiment, there remains a cautious optimism for the yen's long-term strength, as traders are still willing to pay higher premiums for put options on USD/JPY [4]. Group 4: Intervention Speculations - Speculation about potential foreign exchange interventions by Japanese authorities has increased, especially if the USD/JPY approaches the psychological level of 160 [4]. - Since 2022, the Japanese Finance Ministry has reportedly utilized approximately 24.5 trillion yen (around 160 billion USD) to support the yen [4]. - Analysts suggest that significant movements in the USD/JPY exchange rate could trigger policy responses from both the Japanese and U.S. governments to prevent excessive appreciation of the dollar against the yen [4].

Core Insights - Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year in July, marking the third consecutive month of negative growth, exceeding economists' forecast of a 2.1% decline [1] - Imports decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, but the decline was less than the expected 10.4%, resulting in a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately 79.55 million USD) for the month, contrary to the anticipated surplus of 196.2 billion yen [1] - The persistent weakness in exports reflects the ongoing pressure from U.S. tariffs on global trade, impacting Japan's export-oriented economy, particularly in key sectors like automotive and electronics [1] Trade Dynamics - The dual pressures of tightening credit from ongoing interest rate hikes by central banks in the U.S. and Europe, along with the rise of manufacturing in emerging markets in Southeast Asia, are leading to a diversion of orders away from Japan [1] - The resilience in import data highlights structural contradictions within the Japanese economy, where the depreciation of the yen has increased cross-border procurement costs for companies, despite a decline in energy prices alleviating some cost pressures [1] Economic Implications - The imbalance in trade, characterized by "more imports than exports," exacerbates the risk of depleting foreign exchange reserves [1] - Analysts suggest that if the trade deficit persists, the Bank of Japan may be compelled to extend its ultra-loose monetary policy, further delaying the normalization of the yen, which could increase living cost pressures for households already struggling with inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will likely choose to gradually sell its ETF holdings in the market rather than transferring them to the government when it decides to reduce its ETF holdings [1] Group 1: Background and Context - The BOJ began purchasing ETFs in 2010 as part of its ultra-loose monetary policy aimed at revitalizing the sluggish economy, a practice that has continued for 13 years [1] - Although the BOJ stopped purchasing ETFs last year, it has not yet announced when or how it will dispose of its approximately 37 trillion yen (about 252 billion USD) in ETF assets, which have a market value of around 70 trillion yen [1] Group 2: Principles for Asset Disposal - The BOJ has stated that it will base its decision to reduce these assets on three principles: selling at an appropriate price, avoiding losses for the central bank, and minimizing market disruption during the sale [1] - Goldman Sachs indicates that a method to satisfy these three conditions may involve gradually selling small amounts of ETFs in the open market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is gradually reducing its bond purchases, transitioning from an ultra-loose monetary policy to a more market-driven approach, while maintaining a policy interest rate of 0.5% [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan decided to continue reducing its purchases of Japanese government bonds, decreasing the quarterly reduction from 4 trillion yen to 2 trillion yen starting in April 2026 [1]. - By March 2026, the monthly bond purchase amount will decrease from 5.7 trillion yen to 2.9 trillion yen, with further reductions planned for 2027 [1][2]. - The central bank will retain the flexibility to increase bond purchases if there is a surge in interest rates, with evaluations scheduled for June 2026 [1]. Group 2: Bond Holdings and Market Impact - Since the initiation of the ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013, the Bank of Japan has accumulated approximately 560 trillion yen in government bonds, representing 52% of the issuance balance [2]. - The central bank plans to phase out bond purchases to avoid market disruption, with expectations that bond holdings will decrease by 16-17% by March 2027 compared to June 2024 [2]. - To enhance liquidity in the bond market, the Bank of Japan has relaxed conditions for financial institutions to purchase bonds directly without returning them [2]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - The impact of U.S. tariff policies has not yet shown significant negative effects on Japan's economic statistics, but the Bank of Japan is closely monitoring potential adverse effects on wage growth and capital investment [3].