1. 德银：黄金在全球储备中占比升至30% 德意志银行最新报告显示，黄金在全球"外汇与黄金"总储备中的比例已提升至30%，而同期美元占比则 由43%降至40%。德银分析师指出，若黄金要在份额上追平美元，在当前持仓规模不变的前提下，金价 需升至每盎司约5790美元。 国内 1. 中金：美国近期银行爆雷事件暂不构成对金融系统的系统性冲击 国外 6. 中信证券：经济周期回升的预期才是今年大类资产定价的最重要主线 中金研报称，我们认为本轮美国两家银行风险无论是从规模和严重性程度来看都小于上一轮，更多是局 部个别信用风险事件带来的情绪发酵，暂不构成对金融系统的系统性冲击。但这一事件反映出高利率环 境下信用风险上升的趋势，如果带来信贷市场风险偏好的下降和贷款条件收紧可能会导致进一步的流动 性紧缩。但在美国整体经济出现明确衰退信号之前，信贷紧缩可能较为温和，难以形成"危机"情形。 2. 西部证券：黄金的"黄金时代"，黄金有望开启长期牛市 西部证券策略分析师曹柳龙发文指出，当前黄金价格迭创新高，但市场仍然存在分歧，部分投资者警示 黄金交易拥挤与短期超买带来的回调风险，而我们认为，央行购金是金价持续创新高的最大保障。 1970 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests maintaining an optimistic outlook on the stock market amid an economic cycle recovery, while advising caution in investment allocation due to valuation changes [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on the non-bank sector, which is characterized by low valuations and rapid growth in investment performance, presenting a rebound opportunity [1]. - There is an emphasis on the investment opportunities in cyclical sectors, driven by expectations of rising commodity prices in the fourth quarter [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the expectation of an economic cycle recovery is the most important theme for asset pricing this year, despite various influencing factors such as liquidity, regulatory policies, monetary policies, and risk appetite [1] Group 1: Economic Cycle Indicators - The resistance to the recovery of the economic cycle is diminishing, as indicated by leading indicators [1] - The slope of fundamental changes may be more critical for short-term asset performance [1] Group 2: Policy and Liquidity - The characteristics of short-term policies include a high utilization rate of effective fiscal policies, while incremental policies may focus on small-scale policy financial tools and loose monetary policies [1] - There is a risk of slowing M1 expansion, which may affect the willingness of active funds to enter the market [1]