（来源：中国改革报） 转自：中国改革报 同时，作为经济增长的投入要素和约束因素的人口、资源和环境变量，其与经济增长相生相克的双向互 动关系，一直是经济增长理论和发展经济学的重要研究内容，产生人口红利、资源诅咒、环境库兹涅茨 曲线等一系列具有重要理论意义和现实意义的经典议题。"可持续增长+结构变迁=经济发展"，而"经济 发展+人口资源环境协调=可持续发展"，中国式现代化就是以人为本、资源节约、环境友好并且对未来 负责、向世界开放的可持续发展过程和可持续发展结果。 提倡人口消极作用而悲观预测经济增长趋势的马尔萨斯主义，提倡人口积极作用而乐观预测经济增长趋 势的反马尔萨斯主义，二者对立的理论观点和政策主张可以分别用人口论与人手论来形象概括。工业革 命后的西方经济成长史证伪了马尔萨斯主义的人口论，而开放以来的中国经济发展经验也未证实反马尔 萨斯主义的人手论。与人口红利或人口诅咒相比，社会主义市场经济制度、开放的国际经济环境以及灵 活审慎的宏观经济政策，对中国经济发展发挥着更为重要的决定性作用。通过普及高等教育提升年轻人 口的受教育水平，开发中老年人口在知识经济时代的脑力劳动优势，按照国际优质劳动力的25岁下限来 全新 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to economists Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [1][2] - Mokyr received half of the prize for his work on the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress, while Aghion and Howitt shared the other half for their theory on sustained growth under creative destruction [1] Group 1: Mokyr's Contributions - Mokyr's research addresses why the Industrial Revolution occurred in 18th century Britain rather than in India, emphasizing the importance of "useful knowledge" accumulation, inclusive institutional environments, and cultural respect for experimental science [3][4] - His work highlights the role of platforms like the Royal Society in knowledge sharing, patent laws in protecting innovators, and societal attitudes towards science as critical factors for technological transformation into sustained productivity [3] Group 2: Aghion and Howitt's Theory - Aghion and Howitt's "creative destruction" model explains the dynamics of innovation, where competitive R&D leads to vertical innovation as the ultimate source of growth [7] - Their model illustrates that increased R&D activity can rapidly destroy existing innovations, thereby impacting current R&D incentives, and it provides a framework for understanding the transition from traditional fuel vehicles to electric vehicles [7][8] - The model also quantifies the effects of innovation on employment and industry structure, suggesting that while old industries may decline, the overall vitality of the economic ecosystem can improve [8] Group 3: Trends in Economic Research - Recent Nobel Prize selections reflect a shift in economic research from abstract theoretical modeling to addressing real-world issues, emphasizing dynamic processes over static analyses, and integrating interdisciplinary approaches [10] - This trend is particularly evident in new economic fields, where research must consider multiple dimensions such as technological feasibility, regulatory frameworks, and consumer behavior [10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding how innovation drives economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Contributions of the Awardees - Mokyr's research emphasizes the interaction between technology, culture, and institutions, revealing how these elements influence sustained innovation [1][3] - Aghion and Howitt developed mathematical models that illustrate how innovation replaces outdated structures in a competitive environment, thereby promoting economic growth [1][3] - Their combined theoretical framework provides insights for policymakers on fostering an environment conducive to innovation [1][2] Group 2: Economic Context - The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences highlights that the last two centuries have seen unprecedented continuous economic growth, lifting many out of poverty [1][2] - The research of the awardees serves as a reminder that economic growth relies not only on technological innovation but also on the supportive institutional and policy frameworks [2][3] Group 3: Prize Distribution and Background of Awardees - The total prize amount is 11 million Swedish Krona (approximately 8.25 million RMB), with Mokyr receiving half and Aghion and Howitt sharing the other half [2] - Mokyr, born in 1946 in the Netherlands, has focused on the relationship between culture, ideas, and technological change during the Industrial Revolution [2][3] - Aghion, born in 1956 in France, and Howitt, born in 1946 in Canada, have contributed significantly to the understanding of market competition and innovation mechanisms through their collaborative research [3]

Core Insights - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for 2025 was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [1][4][10] - The prize highlights the importance of maintaining the mechanisms behind creative destruction to avoid economic stagnation [1][4] Group 1: Contributions of Nobel Laureates - Mokyr's research emphasizes the role of "useful knowledge" in driving sustained economic growth, categorizing it into propositional knowledge and procedural knowledge [5][6] - Aghion and Howitt transformed Joseph Schumpeter's "creative destruction" theory into a rigorous mathematical model, explaining the dynamic process of market replacement by innovative products [6][7] Group 2: Economic Growth Challenges - Historical analysis shows that despite significant innovations, sustained economic growth has been difficult to achieve, with notable shifts occurring only in the last two centuries [4][5] - The current global trend of de-globalization and protectionism poses risks to economic growth by limiting market expansion and innovation [7][9] Group 3: Implications of AI and Innovation - AI is expected to accelerate the process of creative destruction, making the discovery of innovative ideas more accessible than ever [7][8] - Aghion warns that poorly designed competition policies could lead to market dominance by "superstar" firms, stifling future innovation [7][8] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To maximize productivity gains from technological advancements, robust institutional frameworks, including education and labor market policies, are essential [8][9] - The Nobel Prize serves as a reminder of the critical role of technological innovation in driving economic growth, especially in the context of current global economic challenges [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Vaclav Smil argues that economic growth should not be pursued unconditionally, as it relies on complex logistics rather than mere technological advancements, and that the current food production system is capable of meeting human needs, but waste and mismanagement are significant issues [1][4][5] Group 1: Economic Growth and Environmentalism - Smil critiques extreme environmentalists' doomsday rhetoric, suggesting that the focus should be on food waste rather than dietary restrictions [4][5] - He emphasizes that the current food production can provide 3000 kilocalories per person daily, with one-third of food wasted, highlighting the inefficiency in food distribution rather than production [4][5] - The book discusses the importance of agriculture as the foundation of human society, arguing that alternative food sources cannot replace traditional farming [4][6] Group 2: Food Production and Consumption - Smil's new book addresses the potential dangers of trendy diets that neglect traditional agriculture, warning that such trends could lead to future food shortages [5][6] - He provides data on the caloric needs of adults, arguing that low-carb diets could jeopardize food security if widely adopted [5][6] - The book explores the historical reliance on agriculture over hunting, citing anthropological studies that show the limitations of foraging for sustaining large populations [4][6] Group 3: Class and Food Security - Smil raises concerns about the disconnect between wealthy individuals' dietary choices and the food security needs of the larger population, suggesting that environmentalism often overlooks the basic needs of the poor [8][9] - He critiques the notion that organic farming is inherently better for the environment, pointing out that it often cannot meet the demand compared to conventional farming [8][9] - The discussion includes the economic implications of agricultural labor, noting that a significant portion of the population is engaged in agriculture, yet it remains undervalued compared to other sectors [8][9]