张维迎说：这25年是最好的学习过程，无论是你对人性的了 解、对社会的理解还是对命运的掌控，都是一个学习的过程。 作者：文钊 封图：受访者供图 编者按：2025年，经济观察报以"我们的四分之一世纪"为年终特刊主题，旨在通过数十位时代亲 历者的故事，共绘一幅属于这段岁月的集体记忆图谱。 f ( 关资与邮经论 在白国 66岁的张维迎不改乡音，操一口陕北味儿的普通话。他解释，原国家体改委的一位老领导曾经 说，在中国，干事不当官，当官不干事。成功不成功，看你从什么角度看。 从做事的角度，张维迎是成功的；从做官的角度，可能是不成功的。人的追求不一样——道理谁都 明白。问题是，道理明白，不同的人做事方式仍然不一样。 2003年是中国加入世贸组织的第三年。后来人们相信，中国正是在此时进入了新一轮经济周期的 上行阶段。一季度9.9%的经济增长率令人振奋，房价蠢蠢欲动。虽然"非典"疫情在二季度砸了一 个大坑，也没有改变整个经济上行的轨迹。这一年快要结束的时候，经济学家激辩的是：中国经济 是否过热。 引子 如果重新回到2003年，张维迎是否会一如当初，在被任命为校长助理后不久，分工协助人事工作 的第三天就提交一份人事制度改革的方案 ...

Core Insights - The lecture by Professor Jin Keyu emphasizes the shift from an era of "hyper-globalization" driven by economic development to a new phase where political forces are significantly shaping economic structures [3][9] - Geopolitical risks are increasingly influencing economic decisions, leading to inflation and capital market volatility, yet globalization shows unexpected resilience [4][10] - China's position in global supply chains is strengthening despite external pressures, with a notable decrease in reliance on imported intermediate goods, indicating enhanced supply chain autonomy [4][10] Geopolitical and Economic Dynamics - Geopolitical logic is deeply penetrating economic decision-making, with rising geopolitical risks reflected in economic phenomena such as inflation and market fluctuations [4][10] - Despite Western countries imposing technology blockades and protectionist measures against China, global dependence on China is increasing [4][10] - The importance of countries in trade networks is now more about their "hub" position in global production, trade, and knowledge networks rather than just their production scale [4][10] Role of Intermediate Countries - Middle-sized countries in a "non-aligned" or "intermediate" position are becoming crucial "connectors" in the global economy, facilitating trade and investment amidst weakening geopolitical group trade [5][11] - These countries are emerging as important buffers for maintaining global economic interactions, contributing to the resilience of globalization and indicating a complex multi-centered network rather than a simple bipolar world [5][11] Future Competition and Technological Dynamics - The core logic of future technological competition is shifting from pursuing "technological monopoly" to developing "technology diffusion and application capabilities" [5][12] - China is leveraging its advantages in large-scale manufacturing, cost innovation, and rapid application to drive technology diffusion and lower global costs [5][12] - Protectionism and technology blockades may backfire, potentially stimulating domestic innovation in targeted countries and accelerating the formation of alternative systems [5][12] Conclusion on Globalization - Globalization is undergoing profound restructuring and demonstrating remarkable resilience, with countries needing to enhance their hub and connectivity roles in global networks [5][12] - The emphasis on maintaining openness and cooperation is crucial for achieving sustainable growth and shared prosperity in the new geopolitical economic landscape [5][12]

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to economists Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [1][2] - Mokyr received half of the prize for his work on the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress, while Aghion and Howitt shared the other half for their theory on sustained growth under creative destruction [1] Group 1: Mokyr's Contributions - Mokyr's research addresses why the Industrial Revolution occurred in 18th century Britain rather than in India, emphasizing the importance of "useful knowledge" accumulation, inclusive institutional environments, and cultural respect for experimental science [3][4] - His work highlights the role of platforms like the Royal Society in knowledge sharing, patent laws in protecting innovators, and societal attitudes towards science as critical factors for technological transformation into sustained productivity [3] Group 2: Aghion and Howitt's Theory - Aghion and Howitt's "creative destruction" model explains the dynamics of innovation, where competitive R&D leads to vertical innovation as the ultimate source of growth [7] - Their model illustrates that increased R&D activity can rapidly destroy existing innovations, thereby impacting current R&D incentives, and it provides a framework for understanding the transition from traditional fuel vehicles to electric vehicles [7][8] - The model also quantifies the effects of innovation on employment and industry structure, suggesting that while old industries may decline, the overall vitality of the economic ecosystem can improve [8] Group 3: Trends in Economic Research - Recent Nobel Prize selections reflect a shift in economic research from abstract theoretical modeling to addressing real-world issues, emphasizing dynamic processes over static analyses, and integrating interdisciplinary approaches [10] - This trend is particularly evident in new economic fields, where research must consider multiple dimensions such as technological feasibility, regulatory frameworks, and consumer behavior [10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [2][4] - The Nobel Committee emphasized the importance of managing creative destruction constructively to avoid hindering innovation by established companies and interest groups [4] Group 1: Economic Growth and Beliefs - Economic changes in any period heavily depend on people's beliefs, more so than most economists acknowledge [6][7] - Mokyr's work highlights that the Enlightenment era significantly influenced economic outcomes, suggesting that ideology and culture play crucial roles in economic results [6][8] Group 2: Historical Context of Economic Transformation - Between 1700 and 1850, the UK experienced profound economic changes, with the population more than doubling and urbanization increasing significantly [9][11] - By 1850, 45% of the population lived in towns, up from 18% in 1700, indicating a shift towards market dominance in daily economic activities [9][10] Group 3: The Role of Ideas and Intellectual Competition - The competition among intellectuals, scientists, and entrepreneurs during the Industrial Revolution was pivotal in shaping economic development [7][8] - The emergence of dominant ideas often depended on favorable environments, but historical uncertainty and timing also played critical roles in their success [8][9] Group 4: Industrial Revolution and Economic Leadership - The Industrial Revolution marked the beginning of modern economic growth, with the UK becoming the undisputed world economic leader by the time of the Crystal Palace Exhibition in 1851 [10][11] - The period saw a significant transformation in consumption patterns and living standards, with luxury goods becoming accessible to a broader segment of the population [9][10]

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding how technological change drives sustained economic growth [1] Group 1: Contributions of Joel Mokyr - Mokyr's work focuses on the origins and evolution of modern economic growth through systematic research of economic history [1] - He emphasizes the role of knowledge in economic growth, arguing that modern growth is significantly more dependent on knowledge compared to pre-modern economies [6][12] - Mokyr attributes the rise of knowledge's importance to the Enlightenment, which reshaped knowledge systems and encouraged scientific inquiry [7][8] Group 2: Contributions of Philippe Aghion - Aghion's research centers on innovation economics, particularly the concept of "creative destruction," which explains how technological progress disrupts old structures to foster economic growth [15][16] - He, along with Peter Howitt, developed a model that incorporates the randomness of technological research and its interaction with economic cycles [17] - Aghion also investigates the microeconomic mechanisms and institutional factors behind innovation, such as ownership structures and financing environments [18]

Group 1 - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding how technological change drives sustained economic growth [5] - Mokyr's work focuses on the historical origins and evolution of modern economic growth through systematic research of economic history [5][4] - Aghion and Howitt developed the "creative destruction" mechanism, explaining how technological innovation drives long-term growth in dynamic competition [5][4] Group 2 - Mokyr's research emphasizes the role of knowledge in economic growth, arguing that modern growth is significantly more dependent on knowledge compared to pre-modern economies [10][11] - The Enlightenment period is identified as a key factor in the rise of knowledge's importance in economic growth, reshaping knowledge systems and promoting scientific inquiry [10][11] - Mokyr's "Enlightenment Index" shows that regions like England and the Netherlands had higher knowledge dissemination compared to France, correlating with their economic development [12] Group 3 - Aghion, a prominent figure in innovation economics, integrates the concept of "creative destruction" into modern economic theory, highlighting both the benefits and potential downsides of innovation [15][16] - Aghion and Howitt's theory addresses the randomness of technological research and its interaction with economic cycles, providing insights into the conflicts arising from technological transitions [17] - Aghion has engaged with the Chinese academic community since the 1990s, contributing to discussions on economic reform and receiving accolades such as the Sun Yefang Economic Science Award [18]

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [1] - Aghion's work, particularly the Aghion-Howitt model based on "creative destruction," has reintegrated Schumpeter's economic growth paradigm into mainstream macroeconomic theory [1] Group 1: Nobel Prize Winners - Joel Mokyr received half of the prize for identifying prerequisites for sustained growth through technological advancement [1] - Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt jointly received the other half for their theoretical work on achieving sustained growth through creative destruction [1] - Aghion is recognized as a leading figure in economic growth theory and has been a strong candidate for the Nobel Prize for years [1] Group 2: Economic Theories and Policies - The concept of "creative destruction," originally proposed by economist Schumpeter, suggests that large-scale innovations replace outdated technologies and production systems [4] - Aghion emphasizes the importance of government support in helping employees and businesses adapt to new economic environments, particularly through education, training, and income insurance [4] - Aghion's analysis of the "Danish model" highlights how effective social protection can mitigate the negative impacts of job loss, contrasting it with the less supportive system in the U.S. [4] Group 3: U.S. Economic Measures - The Biden administration has attempted to address economic challenges through a series of relief measures, but the lack of a robust social safety net remains a significant issue [6] - Aghion notes that the U.S. needs to rethink its social system to better protect individuals from unemployment and economic crises [6] - There is a potential shift in American attitudes towards social welfare, especially following the pandemic, which may create opportunities for new social safety measures [7] Group 4: European Innovation Challenges - Aghion points out that Europe is underinvesting in innovation and needs to unite to promote large-scale projects [8] - He criticizes Europe's regulatory environment for being overly focused on preventing anti-competitive practices rather than fostering investment [8] - The current crisis has highlighted Europe's inefficiencies in innovation, indicating a need for a more proactive investment approach [8]

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding how technological change drives sustained economic growth [1] Group 1: Contributions of Joel Mokyr - Mokyr's research focuses on the origins and evolution of modern economic growth through systematic studies of economic history [1] - He emphasizes the role of knowledge in economic growth, arguing that modern growth is significantly more dependent on knowledge compared to pre-modern economies [5][6] - Mokyr attributes the rise of knowledge's importance in economic growth to the Enlightenment, which reshaped knowledge systems and encouraged scientific inquiry [6][7] Group 2: Contributions of Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt - Aghion and Howitt introduced the concept of "creative destruction," explaining how technological progress disrupts old structures to promote economic growth [11][12] - Their work on endogenous growth theory highlights the dual effects of technological change: enhancing long-term growth potential while also causing disruptions to existing enterprises [12][13] - Aghion's research also delves into the micro-mechanisms and institutional factors behind innovation, including the impact of ownership structures and financing environments [13]

Core Insights - The article explores the richness and depth of traditional Chinese economic thought, identifying 18 major economic issues that have persisted throughout history [1][2] - It emphasizes the evolution of traditional economic thought into three layers: economic philosophy, economic propositions, and economic analysis [1][9] - The study highlights the importance of traditional economic thought in contemporary economic theory and its potential for creative transformation [1][12] Group 1: Classification of Economic Issues - Traditional Chinese economic thought is categorized based on 18 major economic issues, including economic ethics, governance, finance, agriculture, commerce, labor, finance, land, population, foreign trade, accounting, national defense, ecology, consumption, income distribution, value and price, economic statistics, and other economic issues [5][6][7] - The classification reflects the systematic and diverse nature of ancient economic problems, which directly influences the richness of economic thought [3][5] Group 2: Depth of Economic Thought - Traditional Chinese economic thought exhibits a layered structure, encompassing philosophical, political, and ethical elements that form the theoretical foundation for analyzing economic issues [9][10] - The depth of thought is characterized by a combination of macro and micro perspectives, leading to various insights, propositions, and policies for addressing economic problems [9][10] Group 3: Formation Mechanisms - The richness of traditional Chinese economic thought is attributed to the interplay of economic practice, cultural heritage, ideological traditions, diverse participants, and modes of exchange [12][13] - Agricultural practices and the development of commerce and foreign trade have significantly influenced the evolution of economic thought in ancient China [12][13] Group 4: Contemporary Relevance - The article suggests that understanding and leveraging traditional Chinese economic thought can contribute to the innovative development of a Chinese economic knowledge system [15] - It emphasizes the need to adopt a problem-oriented approach and integrate traditional wisdom into modern economic practices to enhance theoretical innovation [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of "economic imperialism," where economic theories and methods are applied to various aspects of human behavior and social sciences, highlighting the broad applicability of economics beyond traditional financial topics [2][16][24] Group 1: Economic Theories and Human Behavior - Economics is fundamentally about making choices under constraints, which applies to many decision-making scenarios in life [2][9] - The article presents anecdotes illustrating how economists perceive the world differently, often focusing on the rationality of choices and the unexpected outcomes of those choices [3][4][5] - The stories shared demonstrate how economic reasoning can lead to unconventional solutions to everyday problems, emphasizing the importance of understanding incentives and choices [6][8][12] Group 2: Application of Economic Principles - Economic principles extend to various fields, including political science, sociology, and psychology, showcasing the versatility of economic analysis [17][24] - The article emphasizes that economics is not limited to financial transactions but encompasses a wide range of human behaviors, such as marriage, parenting, and even criminal activity [10][18] - The discussion includes the idea that understanding self-interest can lead to positive societal outcomes, as seen in the "invisible hand" theory proposed by Adam Smith [14][23] Group 3: Broader Implications of Economic Choices - The article argues that the choices individuals make can have complex interactions and consequences, affecting not only personal outcomes but also broader societal dynamics [12][19] - It highlights the importance of recognizing the dual nature of self-interest, which can manifest in both constructive and destructive ways [15][21] - The text concludes that a proper understanding of economics can lead to valuable insights into human behavior and societal structures, encouraging a more nuanced view of economic interactions [24][25]