Group 1: Economic Performance - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite challenges from global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1] - In July, the total import and export volume reached 39,102 billion yuan, with exports growing by 8.0% and imports by 4.8% [5] - The first seven months of 2023 saw a total import and export volume of 256,969 billion yuan, with exports increasing by 7.3% [5] Group 2: Financial Data and Trends - In July, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with government bond financing being the main contributor [3] - The M2 growth rate reached 8.8% in July, while M1 rebounded to 5.6%, indicating a shift in residents' risk preferences [4] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" among residents is emerging, with non-wage income supporting consumption in the third and fourth quarters [2][6] Group 3: Consumption and Investment - Retail sales in July totaled 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%, marking a decline in growth rate for two consecutive months [6] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed to 6.2% year-on-year for the first seven months, with a notable decline in July [7] - Real estate investment continued to decline, down 12% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing adjustments in supply and demand [7] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The central government emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and flexibility to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [8] - The People's Bank of China aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on effective support for the real economy [9] - Structural monetary policy tools are highlighted as essential for targeted support in key sectors, with a focus on re-lending and re-discounting [9]

中债策略周报 2025.2.10-2025.2.16 | 分析师： | 曹潮 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BVH841 | | 联系电话： | 852-96581360 | | 邮箱： | caochao@cnzsqh.hk | 1 中国债券市场基本面、货币政策与资金面： 中国债券市场展望： 2 基本面和货币政策：1月信贷数据实现"开门红"；实体贷款新增5.2万亿元，同比多增3793亿元，其 中企业中长期贷款明显回升，说明建筑业、制造业新增项目逐渐启动；M1较前值回落0.8个百分点至 0.4%，主要受高基数影响。货币政策方面，Q4货政执行报告中新增"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"， 并在"强化逆周期调节"后新增"择机调整优化政策力度和节奏，预示今年货币宽松力度加大；公开 市场操作方面，"本周央行净回笼4849亿元，其中逆回购投放10303亿元，到期16052亿元。 资金面：本周资金面继续收紧，DR001、R001周均值分别较前一周上行7bp、6bp，隔夜和7天资金 利率利差此间大幅缩小甚至倒挂，资金分层现象整体较节前缓解。 基本面和货币政策来看，1月金融数据实现"开门红"，反应政策端对供给 ...