行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货11月19日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,771.1 | 1,750.0 | 1,763.3 | 1,768.7 | -7.8 | - ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported an increase in national general public budget revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% in October, reaching 2.26 trillion yuan [1] - Tax revenue showed a significant increase of 8.6% in October, indicating strong economic support for tax sources [1] - The overall fiscal performance for the first ten months reflects gradual improvement in revenue, strong expenditure support, and continuous structural optimization [3] Revenue Performance - In the first ten months, national general public budget revenue totaled 18.65 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8%, with a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the previous nine months [1] - Major tax categories such as domestic VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax saw growth rates of 4%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 11.5% respectively, with notable increases in personal income tax [1][2] - Stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan, up 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty growing by 88.1%, reflecting an active capital market [2] Expenditure Trends - Total national general public budget expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion yuan, a 2% increase, with significant growth in social security and employment (9.3%), education (4.7%), and environmental protection (7%) [2] - The government is focusing on enhancing fiscal policy and increasing expenditure intensity to support key areas such as education, science and technology, and social security [2][3] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% to 3.45 trillion yuan, while expenditure increased by 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [3] - The expenditure of 4.54 trillion yuan from various bond sources is aimed at stabilizing investment and growth [3] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain an active fiscal policy, ensuring strong support for key expenditures and expanding effective demand [3] - The recent Party Congress emphasized the importance of fiscal policy in achieving economic and social development goals [3]

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in the first ten months of 2025 shows resilience and stability, with various indicators reflecting positive changes, supporting the achievement of annual economic and social development goals [1][3][7]. Economic Indicators - Industrial production continues to grow, with the industrial added value for October increasing by 4.9% year-on-year and 1.17% month-on-month [3]. - The equipment manufacturing sector outperformed, with an added value growth of 8% year-on-year, significantly contributing to overall industrial growth [4]. - The service sector also maintained growth, with the service production index rising by 4.6% year-on-year in October [4]. Consumer Demand - Social retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, driven by holiday consumption and the success of consumption-boosting initiatives [5]. - The retail sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies grew by 23.2% and 13.5%, respectively, among enterprises above designated size [5]. - Service retail sales rose by 5.3% year-on-year from January to October, outpacing goods retail sales [6]. Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate was 5.1% in October, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions [6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2% year-on-year in October, with core CPI rising by 1.2% [6]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 408.914 billion yuan from January to October, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while investment excluding real estate development grew by 1.7% [8][9]. - Real estate development investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, significantly dragging down overall investment growth by 3 percentage points [9]. - Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with its share rising to 25.6% of total investment [9][10]. Future Outlook - Despite challenges, the long-term fundamentals of the economy remain positive, with macro policies continuing to support growth [7][11]. - There is significant potential for investment to drive economic development, particularly in areas such as industrial upgrading and regional coordination [11].

Economic Overview - The Chinese economy has shown resilience and vitality, maintaining a steady development trend despite external pressures and internal challenges [1]. Agriculture Sector - The added value of agriculture (planting industry) increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the total summer grain and early rice output reaching 178.25 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons or 0.1% compared to the previous year [7]. Manufacturing Sector - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with the added value of equipment manufacturing increasing by 9.7% and high-tech manufacturing by 9.6% [11]. Service Sector - The modern service industry has developed well, with the added value of information transmission, software, and IT services growing by 11.2%, leasing and business services by 9.2%, and transportation, warehousing, and postal services by 5.8% [15]. Retail Sector - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.65877 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while online retail sales amounted to 1.1283 trillion yuan, growing by 9.8% year-on-year [18]. Trade Sector - The import and export of goods continued to grow, with an ongoing optimization of the trade structure [19].

Core Insights - The express delivery business volume in China has surpassed 150 billion pieces as of October 11, 2023, achieving this milestone 37 days earlier than in 2024 [2][4] - This achievement is attributed to a series of supportive policies and a continuously optimized business environment, which have created favorable conditions for postal and express enterprises [4] - The growth reflects a stable increase in the consumer market and a steady economic development trend in China, highlighting the important role of the postal and express industry in building a unified national market [4]

Core Insights - As of October 11, 2023, China's express delivery business volume has surpassed 150 billion pieces, achieving this milestone 37 days earlier than in 2024 [2][4] - The growth in express delivery volume is attributed to a series of supportive policies and a continuously optimized business environment, which have created favorable conditions for postal and express enterprises [4] - This achievement reflects the stable growth of China's consumer market and the steady progress of the economy, highlighting the important role of the postal and express industry in building a unified national market [4]

Core Insights - The express delivery business volume in China has surpassed 150 billion pieces as of October 11 this year, achieving this milestone 37 days earlier than expected for 2024 [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The growth in express delivery volume reflects a stable growth in the consumer market and a steady economic development in China [4]. - The achievement is attributed to a series of supportive policies and a continuously optimized business environment, which have created favorable conditions for postal and express enterprises [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The express delivery sector plays a significant role in building a unified national market, highlighting its importance in the overall economic landscape [4].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of the province shows a stable and progressive trend, with efforts focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - The implementation of existing policies alongside new measures has contributed to this positive economic environment [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial economy demonstrates resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in industrial added value from January to August [1] - In August alone, the industrial added value grew by 4.6%, with 26 out of 40 major industries reporting year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 65% [1] - Advanced manufacturing plays a significant leading role, with high-tech manufacturing growing at 10.7%, and digital core product manufacturing increasing by 9.9% [1] - Specific sectors such as pharmaceutical manufacturing and aerospace equipment manufacturing have seen growth rates exceeding 12%, indicating a strong shift towards high-end and intelligent manufacturing [1] Consumer Market - The consumer market is gradually recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% in total retail sales of consumer goods in August, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Cumulative retail sales from January to August show a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [1] - Upgrading and improving product categories are performing well, with retail sales of smartphones and computers increasing by 31.5% and 19% respectively in August, contributing to a 0.7 percentage point increase in total retail sales [1] Investment Trends - The investment structure is continuously optimizing, with equipment investment growing by 4.1% year-on-year from January to August, accounting for 19.3% of total investment, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - This trend reflects positive signals from business entities regarding production expansion and equipment upgrades [2]

Core Viewpoint - The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, indicated that with the continuous implementation of macro policies, China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and progressive development trend in the third quarter [1] Economic Outlook - The macro policies are expected to have a positive impact on economic performance, suggesting a favorable environment for growth in the upcoming quarter [1]

Economic Performance - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 5.8%, indicating robust growth in production and demand [1] - The high-end manufacturing sector is becoming a significant driver of industrial growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing continuing to outpace the overall industrial growth rate [1] - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector saw a remarkable increase of 26.9% in added value, and the production of new energy vehicles grew by 17.1% [1] Consumer Market - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with significant growth in basic living and some upgraded goods, particularly in cultural and sports entertainment [2] - The "old for new" policy for consumer goods has shown positive effects, with retail sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment achieving double-digit growth [2] - Service consumption has also been strong, with retail sales in sectors like cultural leisure, communication information, and tourism consulting showing rapid growth, contributing to a 5.2% year-on-year increase in service retail sales [2] Foreign Trade - In July, the total import and export value of goods increased by 6.7% year-on-year, reflecting a stable and growing scale with improved quality [2] - The diversification of foreign trade has been effective, with efforts to stabilize foreign trade and optimize trade structure [2] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate in July remained stable compared to the same month last year, with key groups' employment showing basic stability [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July was flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating overall price stability [2]