期货市场夜盘的这根长阴线，击穿了国内多数氧化铝生产商的 现金生产成本线。短短数月前，市场还因反内卷政策预期一度 躁动，如今却不得不直面过剩现实。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 2025年12月5日凌晨，氧化铝期货主力合约在夜盘交易中收于2590元/吨，跌破了2600元/吨整 数关口，刷新上市以来新低。 期货市场夜盘的这根长阴线，击穿了国内多数氧化铝生产商的现金生产成本线。短短数月前，市场 还因反内卷政策预期一度躁动，如今却不得不直面过剩现实。 在新疆交割库接近满额、后续大量仓单即将到期的压力下，氧化铝产能明显过剩，期货与跌破 2800元/吨的现货市场形成双杀。 所谓"双杀"，是指期货价格与现货价格同步大幅下跌，使得无论是持有期货头寸还是现货实物的 市场参与者普遍面临亏损的局面。 行业共识正在形成：除非出现"检修企业达到一定量级"的实质性减产，否则市场的跌势难以扭 转。 破位下行 2025年12月5日的夜盘，成了压垮氧化铝价格的最后一根稻草。氧化铝主力合约收于2590元/吨 的价位，创下新低。这一价格已跌出行业公认的现金生产成本区间。根据行业普遍的成本模型测 算，国内约90%至全部氧化铝产能的边际现金成本在28 ...

经济观察报记者王雅洁 新湖期货在12月5日的早评中确认，夜盘价格已在"突破现金成本后继续下跌"。国投安信期货同日指 出，当前仅山西、河南部分低成本产能尚有一些利润，在形成规模减产前，市场将维持弱势并继续探 底。 与氧化铝的疲软形成对比的，是下游电解铝期货价格的强势。沪铝主力合约在宏观情绪改善和铜价带动 下收涨于22,235元/吨。 市场的天平之所以倾斜，源于一系列现实压力。 2025年12月5日凌晨，氧化铝期货主力合约在夜盘交易中收于2590元/吨，跌破了2600元/吨整数关口， 刷新上市以来新低。 期货市场夜盘的这根长阴线，击穿了国内多数氧化铝生产商的现金生产成本线。短短数月前，市场还因 反内卷政策预期一度躁动，如今却不得不直面过剩现实。 在新疆交割库接近满额、后续大量仓单即将到期的压力下，氧化铝产能明显过剩，期货与跌破2800元/ 吨的现货市场形成双杀。 所谓"双杀"，是指期货价格与现货价格同步大幅下跌，使得无论是持有期货头寸还是现货实物的市场参 与者普遍面临亏损的局面。 行业共识正在形成：除非出现"检修企业达到一定量级"的实质性减产，否则市场的跌势难以扭转。 破位下行 2025年12月5日的夜盘，成了压 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the lack of fundamental support, the pure benzene futures 2603 contract is on a slow bottom - seeking path. Affected by increased external import pressure and weak downstream demand, it is expected to continue its weak trend [2]. - The pure benzene market is facing severe challenges in the short term. With huge pressure from the supply side and intensified negative feedback from the demand side, under the dual pressure of collapsing crude oil costs and a continuously loose fundamental situation, the price trend has evolved from "cyclical fluctuations" to a deep bottom - seeking of "structural surplus" [6]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Supply Side - In recent years, the concentrated commissioning of refining and chemical integration projects has led to continuous expansion of pure benzene production capacity. New devices of large - scale projects such as Shandong Yulong Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will be put into operation in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the annual domestic pure benzene output will increase by 10% year - on - year to reach 23.12 million tons [3]. - From January to September 2025, the domestic pure benzene import volume increased by 40.5% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, the import from South Korea alone reached 4.115 million tons, almost accounting for most of China's total imports. It is expected that the external import volume in November will remain high, further strengthening the supply - loose pattern [3]. Demand Side - From January to September 2025, the total downstream demand for pure benzene increased by 8% year - on - year. The main products such as styrene and caprolactam had a high operating rate of 77% - 96%. However, this "high - operation, negative - profit" situation is an abnormal cycle that will eventually form a negative feedback to the upstream [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the negative feedback effect is accelerating. Styrene, the largest downstream of pure benzene, has seen its production profit drop to the lowest level in the same period of history, and its inventory pressure is increasing. The three major downstream industries of styrene are facing weak demand and insufficient orders. In October, the operating rates of styrene, caprolactam, and adipic acid decreased month - on - month, indicating that the demand is just starting to cool down [5]. Inventory - As of November 3, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at the port of Jiangsu, China, was 121,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 42.35%, and an increase of 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year with a year - on - year increase of 19.80%. The domestic pure benzene market has entered a inventory - accumulation cycle, highlighting the weak demand [6].