Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for the gold market, indicating a strong upward trend amidst various economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May recorded an increase of 139,000, marking the lowest level since February, yet surpassing market expectations of 130,000. This report has reduced bets on interest rate cuts, with the probability of three or more 0.25 percentage point cuts decreasing from 36% to 25% [1]. - Concerns over the quality of economic data and the potential for a rate cut later this year were highlighted by Federal Reserve official Harker, who expressed worries about the growing challenges in the U.S. financial system [1]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of the U.S. Stablecoin Bill and rapid legislative actions in Hong Kong signify a global competition for digital currency authority, which supports gold as a safe-haven asset due to its lack of counterparty risk and volatility [3]. - The rising U.S. government fiscal deficit and debt, coupled with significant maturing U.S. Treasury bonds in June and July, have heightened market concerns over refinancing, further driving risk-averse sentiment and potentially lowering the U.S. dollar index, which may boost gold prices [3]. - A recent decline in domestic deposit rates has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing additional support for gold prices [3]. Long-term Outlook - The global situation is characterized by a breakdown of order, declining interest rates, and a devaluation of the U.S. dollar, suggesting a long-term trend that may favor zero-yield assets like gold as a hedge against rising export costs due to tariffs and trade wars [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department announced it will issue $125 billion in government bonds during the upcoming quarterly refinancing auction, maintaining the long-term bond issuance guidance unchanged [1][2] - The Treasury expects borrowing needs for the second quarter to reach $514 billion, which is $391 billion higher than previous estimates [1] - The Treasury is evaluating potential enhancements to its repurchase program to better achieve liquidity support and cash management goals, responding to recent market volatility [1][2] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Yellen's previous strategy of suppressing long-term bond sales to lower borrowing costs is being continued by Secretary Besant, despite market turbulence reinforcing arguments against increasing medium to long-term bond issuance [2][4] - The debt ceiling has constrained the Treasury's ability to increase the total supply of government bonds, forcing the use of cash reserves and special accounting measures [2][3] - Analysts predict that the Treasury may not need to resume increasing note and bond auction sizes until late this year or early 2026, although a significant fiscal deficit suggests that an increase in issuance is likely at some point [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming refinancing auction will consist of $125 billion, including $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds [5] - The Treasury plans to slightly increase the sales of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) to maintain its market share, with specific adjustments outlined for upcoming months [5]

▍ 美债集中到期对中资美元债的影响。 根据Bl o omb e rg统计，预计2 0 2 5年美国国债到期规模处于未来十年的较高水平，全年到期规模为9 . 8万亿美元，分月度看， 2 0 2 5年4 - 7月为到期高峰，规模均高于1万亿美元，其中Q2到期规模为5 . 4 5万亿美元，为2 0 2 5 - 2 0 2 8年期间的到期高峰。2 0 2 5 年美债再融资一方面面临集中到期压力，市场流动性水平或趋紧；另一方面美债滚续融资成本抬升，票息支出的增加或引起市 场对于美国财政的信心下降，提高风险溢价。但整体而言，2 0 2 5年美联储仍有降息空间，若市场对于降息预期升温，或带来 中资美元债收益率曲线下移与收益抬升的博弈机会，建议关注短端中资美元债等板块。往后看，若美联储降息率先落地，或打 开我国央行货币政策更多的操作空间，开启新一轮债牛行情。 文 ｜ 明明 李晗 徐烨烽 俞柯帆 来正杰 2 0 2 5年4月以来，受关税政策螺旋升温影响，美债利率出现快速调整，带动中资美元债市场出现波动。我们认为近期中资美元 债市场调整，更多缘于关税政策变化带来的流动性收紧与长端风险溢价的抬升，而非出自于中资主体信用风险的变化。 ...