美债收益率飙升

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美国政府或不得不退还关税 长期美债收益率盘前飙升
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 13:45
Core Viewpoint - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs could lead to the return of previously collected tariffs, worsening the already strained federal finances in the U.S. [1][3][4] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - Most U.S. Treasuries faced selling pressure, with the 2-year yield rising by 3.5 basis points to 3.658%, the 10-year yield increasing by over 6.3 basis points to 4.289%, and the 30-year yield climbing by over 6 basis points to 4.978% [1] - The court's decision may result in a significant increase in bond issuance and yields if tariffs are refunded, as noted by policy experts [4] Group 2: International Bond Markets - Major overseas bond yields have also surged, with Germany, Italy, and France seeing their 30-year bond yields reach the highest levels since 2011 [4] - On September 2, German 10-year yields rose by 4.5 basis points to 2.792%, and 30-year yields increased by 5.1 basis points to 3.412% [4] Group 3: U.K. Bond Market - The U.K. bond market is under pressure as the Labour government attempts to address a fiscal gap of £20 billion to £25 billion, leading to rising yields across the board [5] - The 2-year U.K. bond yield increased by 4.7 basis points to 4.016%, while the 10-year yield rose by 5.8 basis points to 4.808%, marking the highest levels since 1998 [5] Group 4: Currency Movements - The British pound fell by 1% against the U.S. dollar, indicating a lack of confidence in the government's ability to stabilize finances [6] Group 5: Japanese Bond Market - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.604%, while the 30-year yield rose by 5.2 basis points to 3.242% [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Issuance - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a total of $291 billion in bonds, including various maturities, on September 2 [9]
美国220亿美元30年期国债标售成焦点 收益率触及20年高点投资者抵制加剧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 01:29
Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury will auction $22 billion in 30-year bonds this Thursday, which has become a focal point for Wall Street due to increasing global investor resistance to long-term government debt [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has become the least favored bond type, with its yield reaching a nearly 20-year high of 5.15% last month and hovering around 4.98% at the start of the week [3] - Demand for long-term bonds has been persistently weak, with rising yields prompting investors to seek higher risk premiums for government loans, leading to increased financing pressure as U.S. borrowing continues to rise [4] Group 2 - Concerns over the fiscal situation have intensified, with predictions that recent tax and spending legislation could increase the U.S. budget deficit by trillions in the coming years, and Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 [5] - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion for the fiscal year 2024 [5] - Due to severe sell-offs, there are speculations that the U.S. Treasury may reduce or suspend the issuance of 30-year bonds, as the current trading situation for long-term U.S. Treasuries no longer aligns with the traditional view of them as "risk-free assets" [5]
美债收益率飙升,反映出全球市场对美国经济担忧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 08:31
Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury market reflects a culmination of structural contradictions, exacerbated by a downgrade in the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's, leading to a sell-off and rising yields [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Dynamics - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the end of its highest rating since 1917, which triggered a market sell-off [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% and the 10-year yield rose above 4.5%, reaching the highest levels since 2008 [1] - As of May, the total U.S. federal debt exceeded $36 trillion, accounting for over 120% of GDP, with interest payments projected to reach $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, representing 22% of fiscal revenue [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Yield Increases - Concerns over U.S. debt sustainability have intensified due to recent trade policy adjustments, which have reduced foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasuries from 34% to 29% by the end of 2024 [2] - The potential introduction of "century bonds" to replace foreign-held Treasuries has further eroded investor confidence, contributing to rising yields [2] - The upcoming refinancing of approximately $2 trillion in maturing Treasuries in June has raised doubts about the market's ability to absorb these without prior credit crises [2] Group 3: Global Financial Market Impacts - The volatility in U.S. Treasury yields is reshaping international capital flows, with sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds adjusting their asset allocations, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Emerging markets are facing dual pressures of capital outflows and currency depreciation, particularly those with high external debt dependency [3] - Despite short-term volatility, the U.S. Treasury market retains resilience due to its liquidity and depth, supported by the Federal Reserve's role as a "lender of last resort" [3] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The rise in Treasury yields reflects deeper concerns about potential stagflation in the U.S. economy, influenced by tariff impacts and the restructuring of global trade [5] - Countries with high dependency on U.S. debt, such as Japan, are likely to be the most affected, as evidenced by rising yields on Japanese bonds [4]
刚刚,亚太市场普跌!比特币,又新高!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 02:09
Market Overview - Bitcoin reached a new high, while the Asia-Pacific markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 0.67% and the Korean Composite Index falling by 0.55% [1][2][3] - The Hang Seng Index opened down by 0.33%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.11% [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that the Fed is likely to lower interest rates by only 0.25 percentage points this year and will wait for the effects of government policies to become clearer [5] - San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasized the need for the Fed to remain flexible and avoid hasty actions due to insufficient information [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Other cryptocurrencies also saw significant gains, with Ethereum rising over 2% and Dogecoin increasing by over 6% [7] - In the past 24 hours, nearly 120,000 liquidations occurred in the cryptocurrency market, amounting to $460 million, with the largest single liquidation on Binance-ETH valued at $5.0408 million [10][11]