今年以来，全球资产价格正经历一轮重要调整：10 年期美国国债收益率较年内高点回落超 50 个基点， 美元指数（DXY）较高点下跌超 10%。不过在夏季行情中，这两大资产的下行势头均遇阻。 摩根士丹利指出，这一利率低谷仍有进一步下行空间：一方面，当前水平高于 2025 年 4 月的 2.87% 和 2024 年 9 月的 2.69%；另一方面，美联储经济学家预计最终联邦基金利率可能降至 2.625%（而非市场 当前定价的 3%），核心原因是美国移民政策收紧将放缓劳动力市场增长，进而压低潜在经济增速与均 衡利率（r*）。 美债收益率与联邦基金利率的联动关系将持续主导债市行情。报告数据显示，二者在 2025 年 4 月短暂 偏离后已重新同步。 （市场隐含联邦基金利率低谷与 10 年期美债收益率） 摩根士丹利在最新全球宏观策略报告《At the Edge of Hot Summer, At the Threshold of a Larger Fall》中指 出，随着美联储降息窗口逐步临近，今年秋季美债收益率与美元指数有望双双创下年内新低，为投资者 提供明确的布局方向。 一、宏观主线：美联储降息成核心驱动力，美债收益率 ...

今年以来，全球资产价格正经历一轮重要调整：10年期美国国债收益率较年内高点回落超50个基点，美 元指数(DXY)较高点下跌超 10%。不过在夏季行情中，这两大资产的下行势头均遇阻。 摩根士丹利在最新全球宏观策略报告《At the Edge of Hot Summer, At the Threshold of a Larger Fall》中指 出，随着美联储降息窗口逐步临近，今年秋季美债收益率与美元指数有望双双创下年内新低，为投资者 提供明确的布局方向。 一、宏观主线：美联储降息成核心驱动力，美债收益率或跌破4% 美联储政策转向是下半年全球资产定价的核心逻辑。 在今年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席鲍威尔释放明确鸽派信号，称"当前政策处于限制性区 间，经济前景与风险平衡可能需要调整政策立场"，直接推动市场隐含的联邦基金利率低谷跌破3%(目 前为2.94%)。 摩根士丹利指出，这一利率低谷仍有进一步下行空间：一方面，当前水平高于2025年4月的2.87%和 2024年9月的2.69%；另一方面，美联储经济学家预计最终联邦基金利率可能降至2.625%(而非市场当前 定价的3%)，核心原因是美国移民政策收紧将放缓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure from President Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to significant market reactions and a shift in investment strategies, particularly regarding U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Strategies - Following rumors of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, markets experienced volatility, prompting analysts to recommend buying two-year U.S. Treasuries while selling ten-year Treasuries, anticipating a shift in monetary policy [1][3]. - The "Powell hedge" strategy aligns with investors' long-held positions, benefiting from the widening gap between short-term and long-term yields [5][6]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for inflation due to loose monetary policy have led to increased interest in "steepening trades" [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. growth, with rising debt and deficits, which supports the case for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6][13]. - The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 2.42%, indicating growing inflation expectations among investors [10][11]. - Experts predict a high probability (over 90%) of a rate cut in September, while the likelihood of a cut in July remains low (around 30%) [13]. Group 3: Legal and Political Context - Most Wall Street professionals believe Trump would face legal challenges if he attempted to dismiss Powell, complicating the situation [14][19]. - The legal interpretation of "for cause" in the Federal Reserve Act remains uncertain, as it has never been tested in court, creating a legal gray area [17][18]. - Market reactions indicate skepticism about Trump's ability to dismiss Powell, with significant fluctuations in bond yields and currency values following related news [19].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury will auction $22 billion in 30-year bonds this Thursday, which has become a focal point for Wall Street due to increasing global investor resistance to long-term government debt [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has become the least favored bond type, with its yield reaching a nearly 20-year high of 5.15% last month and hovering around 4.98% at the start of the week [3] - Demand for long-term bonds has been persistently weak, with rising yields prompting investors to seek higher risk premiums for government loans, leading to increased financing pressure as U.S. borrowing continues to rise [4] Group 2 - Concerns over the fiscal situation have intensified, with predictions that recent tax and spending legislation could increase the U.S. budget deficit by trillions in the coming years, and Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 [5] - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion for the fiscal year 2024 [5] - Due to severe sell-offs, there are speculations that the U.S. Treasury may reduce or suspend the issuance of 30-year bonds, as the current trading situation for long-term U.S. Treasuries no longer aligns with the traditional view of them as "risk-free assets" [5]

Group 1 - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.09% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The auction of $69 billion 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed a stable demand, with the yield slightly lower than pre-auction trading levels, indicating continued interest in short-term debt instruments [1] Group 1: Auction Results - The yield on the 2-year Treasury bonds was one basis point lower than the pre-auction trading level, and approximately two basis points lower than last Friday's closing price [1] - The allocation to primary dealers was 10.5%, below the recent average of 10.9%, indicating a lower participation from these dealers [1] - Direct bidders received 26.2% of the allocation, significantly higher than the recent average of 16.4%, suggesting strong interest from non-dealer participants [1] - Indirect bidders accounted for 63.3% of the allocation, slightly below the recent average of 72.7%, indicating a moderate level of interest from this group [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.57, close to the past six auction average of 2.65 and higher than the 2.52 from the April auction, reflecting solid demand [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Upcoming Treasury auctions for 5-year and 7-year bonds are expected to benefit from potential end-of-month demand, indicating a positive outlook for short-term debt instruments [1]