Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) due to diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside the CHF's safe-haven appeal and the resilience of the Swiss economy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third time this year by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, totaling a 75 basis point reduction, which diminishes the attractiveness of the USD [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintains its interest rate at 0%, with a high threshold for returning to negative rates, supporting the CHF [1] - The divergence in monetary policy, characterized by "Fed easing and Swiss stability," favors the CHF [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Swiss economy shows resilience, with third-quarter GDP contraction offset by growth in manufacturing and services, and the central bank projects GDP growth slightly below 1.5% for 2025 [1] - The US third-quarter GDP exceeded expectations but failed to reverse the USD's weakness, with the USD index falling to a three-month low [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Increased global geopolitical and trade uncertainties are attracting funds into the CHF, although excessive appreciation could lead to deflation and impact exports [2] - Technical indicators show mixed signals, with RSI entering oversold territory suggesting a potential short-term rebound, while MACD remains bearish [2] - Institutions have differing views on future trends, with Standard Chartered suggesting a potential short-term rebound for the USD, while UBS expects continued weakness until mid-2026 [2] Group 4: Future Focus - Key future considerations include the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, signals from the Swiss National Bank, and global geopolitical risks [2] - Investors are advised to monitor Swiss inflation, Federal Reserve communications, and non-farm payroll data for risk management [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) maintains a strong position against the US dollar (USD), with a slight decline of 0.0447% and a trading range of 0.6698-0.6710, following a significant rise that broke the 0.67 mark, reaching a 14-month high since October 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the policy interest rate at 3.6%, with a hawkish tone suggesting potential rate hikes in the future, which has increased market expectations for a rate increase in early 2025 [1]. - Domestic demand in Australia remains robust, with private consumption and investment data showing resilience, which offsets some external pressures and enhances confidence in the AUD [2]. - The RBA's cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook, without concerns of recession, further supports the strength of the AUD [2]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The USD index has declined over 9% this year, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and internal policy discrepancies, which have weakened the dollar and increased the relative attractiveness of the AUD [2]. - The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently in an upward channel, with key support at 0.6620 and resistance at 0.6707, indicating a solid bullish structure [2]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Upcoming key indicators include the Australian fourth-quarter CPI data at the end of January, which could reinforce rate hike expectations if inflation rises [3]. - Monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy direction and US economic performance is crucial, as these factors will directly impact the strength of the USD [3].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3676, reflecting a narrow fluctuation pattern driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside factors such as international oil price volatility, economic fundamentals, and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada has completed four rate cuts totaling 100 basis points this year and maintained the overnight rate at 2.25% on December 10, indicating a neutral to hawkish stance that has led to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has implemented its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the key interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with internal dissent highlighting significant policy divergence within the Fed [2]. - The contrasting monetary policies of the two central banks are a primary driver of the ongoing pressure on the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Canada's economy showed resilience with a 2.6% annualized GDP growth in Q3, reversing previous contractions, and a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, the lowest in nearly 16 months [1]. - The Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, is influenced by oil prices, which have declined by 15.2% since 2025, impacting Canada's oil export revenues and providing some support for the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently characterized by bearish dominance but with slowing momentum, as indicated by technical indicators [3]. - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain within the range of 1.3740-1.3830, with key support at 1.3720-1.3680 and resistance at 1.3830 and 1.3890 [3]. - Some institutions are beginning to adopt a bullish outlook on the Canadian dollar, anticipating it could rise to 77 cents against the USD by 2026 due to factors such as narrowing interest rate differentials and enhanced economic resilience [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the USD/CAD exchange rate will depend on multiple factors, including guidance from the Bank of Canada on interest rate hikes, core inflation data, and statements from Federal Reserve officials [3]. - Additionally, OPEC+ production policies, international oil price trends, and developments in US-Canada trade negotiations will be critical variables influencing the exchange rate [3]. - The ongoing divergence in monetary policies, oil price recovery, and the pace of Canada's economic recovery will determine the long-term direction of the exchange rate [3].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing low-level fluctuations driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank, alongside inflation, economic fundamentals, and risk aversion factors, leading to increased short-term uncertainty [1][2]. Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third time this year by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with Powell ruling out further rate hikes, which diminishes the attractiveness of the dollar and suppresses the USD/CHF rate [1]. - In contrast, the Swiss National Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0% for the second consecutive time, with Schlegel indicating a high threshold for returning to negative interest rates, providing support for the Swiss franc [1][2]. Inflation and Economic Fundamentals - Switzerland's November CPI fell to 0%, reaching the lower limit of the central bank's target range, influenced by declines in housing, rent, and clothing prices, prompting the Swiss National Bank to lower its medium-term inflation forecasts [2]. - The U.S. labor market appears weak, reinforcing expectations for continued monetary easing, with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to clarify policy direction [2]. Economic Resilience in Switzerland - Despite a contraction in GDP due to a decline in pharmaceutical exports, Switzerland's manufacturing and service sectors have shown moderate growth, with the Swiss National Bank projecting GDP growth slightly below 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026 [2]. Risk Aversion and Technical Analysis - Year-end market risk aversion is leading to inflows into the Swiss franc, which is suppressing the exchange rate, although excessive appreciation of the franc could trigger deflation, placing the Swiss National Bank in a dilemma regarding potential intervention [2]. - Technically, the exchange rate has declined nearly 1% over the past three days, facing resistance at the 0.8000 level, with the RSI entering oversold territory, while the MACD indicates a bearish trend [2]. Short-term Predictions - Institutions forecast the USD/CHF exchange rate to fluctuate within the 0.7920-0.7980 range, with key support at the previous low of 0.7915 and resistance at 0.7980 and 0.8000 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is currently in a low-level oscillation, primarily driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Switzerland, with short-term focus on range trading and medium to long-term outlook dependent on policy paths and risk sentiment [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of December 19, the USD/CHF exchange rate was 0.7945, showing a slight increase of 0.0004 or 0.0504% from the previous trading day, with a range of 0.7948 to 0.7938 during the day [1] - The exchange rate has been under pressure since December, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1% over the last three trading days, maintaining a clear downward trend since mid-November [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The core driver of the USD/CHF exchange rate is the divergence in central bank policies, with the Federal Reserve completing its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the benchmark rate to 3.5%-3.75%, while the Swiss National Bank has maintained a 0% interest rate, providing strong support for the Swiss franc [2] - The US inflation nearing target allows for more space for the Fed's easing policies, while Switzerland's CPI fell to 0% in November, hitting the central bank's lower limit, although the probability of policy adjustment remains low [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The traditional safe-haven status of the Swiss franc is highlighted, with increased global risk sentiment leading to capital inflows that suppress the exchange rate, although excessive appreciation of the franc could trigger deflationary pressures [2] - The technical indicators show a bearish trend, with the price operating below key moving averages and facing resistance at the 0.8000 level, while the RSI has dropped to 22.79, indicating a potential short-term technical rebound [3] - The short-term focus is on a trading range of 0.7920-0.7980, with support at the previous low of 0.7915 and resistance at 0.7980 and the strong level of 0.8000 [3]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the Bank of England's interest rate decision, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% due to weak economic indicators [1] - The UK economy shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth, which supports the expectation of monetary easing [1] - The recent PMI data provided short-term support for the pound, but most institutions believe it will not alter the rate cut trajectory [1] Group 2 - The UK autumn budget introduced a £22 billion fiscal buffer, which helped reduce short positions on the pound and pushed the exchange rate above 1.335 [2] - The tightening policies in the budget may constrain economic growth, and the inflation rate remains significantly above the Bank of England's target [2] - There is a divergence in institutional forecasts for the pound, with some predicting a slight decline due to economic pressures and rate cuts, while others see potential for a short-term rebound if rate cuts are less than expected [2] Group 3 - The exchange rate is currently balanced, with short-term fluctuations expected between 1.3350 and 1.3380, with key support at 1.3350 and resistance at 1.3400 [2] - The long-term outlook for the pound depends on the divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US, as well as the recovery of the UK economy and fiscal conditions [2] - Global capital flows and other variables are also important factors to consider in the pound's valuation [2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has been recovering against the US dollar (USD) since December 2025, with a reported exchange rate of 0.6647 as of December 15, reflecting a slight increase of 0.0007 from the previous trading day [1] - The core driver of the AUD's strength is the policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), with the RBA maintaining its benchmark interest rate and signaling a potential rate hike if inflation remains stubborn [1][2] - Following the RBA's hawkish stance on December 9, the AUD gained 0.3% to 0.6645, while the 3-year Australian government bond yield surged by 11 basis points to 4.152% [1] Group 2 - Australia's inflation rate reached 3.8% year-on-year in October, prompting the RBA to raise its medium-term inflation expectations and support its decision to rule out rate cuts [2] - The Australian economy is experiencing a dichotomy of high inflation and weak growth, with a projected budget deficit of AUD 14.39 billion over the next four years, while the labor market remains tight [2] - The technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD has risen nearly 0.8% since the low on December 9, breaking through several short-term resistance levels, with 0.6650 becoming a key level to watch [2] Group 3 - The future trajectory of the AUD/USD exchange rate is highly dependent on the policy directions of both the RBA and the Fed, as well as global risk sentiment and commodity price fluctuations [3] - Investors should closely monitor the Fed's future rate cut pace, RBA communications, and changes in inflation and labor data to gauge the sustainability of the RBA's hawkish stance [3]

Core Viewpoint - GBP/JPY is experiencing fluctuations influenced by upcoming UK economic data and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, with a focus on the divergence in policy expectations between the UK and Japan [1] Economic Data Impact - The sensitivity to UK economic data has increased significantly, with recent figures showing a mere 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Q3 2025, down from 0.3% in Q2, highlighting a weak recovery [1] - Upcoming monthly GDP and industrial production data will further reveal recovery momentum, with potential underperformance likely to strengthen rate cut bets for the Bank of England, putting pressure on the GBP [1] Monetary Policy Divergence - The core driving force for GBP/JPY remains the depreciation pressure on the yen, exacerbated by Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan, raising concerns over fiscal stability [1] - The global risk appetite remains high, suppressing the yen and providing support for GBP/JPY, despite the anticipated interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan [1] Market Expectations - The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at the December 18-19 meeting, with probabilities nearing 80%, potentially increasing the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% [1] - This contrasts sharply with the Bank of England's 82% probability of a rate cut in December, which, while supporting GBP/JPY, significantly limits its upward momentum [1] Technical Analysis - Technically, GBP/JPY is in a strong oscillating pattern, with effective support in the 196-198 range and a well-maintained upward channel for the month [2] - A solid breakthrough above the 199.00 level could signal a move towards the 200.00 resistance, while a drop below the 197.00 support may trigger deeper corrections towards 196.00 and 195.50 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada has led to increased volatility in the USD/CAD exchange rate, influenced by economic data and trade uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25%, indicating a hawkish stance and suggesting the end of the rate-cutting cycle, supported by strong economic data such as a 53,000 increase in employment and a GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3 [1]. - The Federal Reserve cut its rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, the lowest in nearly three years, with indications of potential further cuts in 2026, raising concerns about economic slowdown and diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Canada's unemployment rate fell to 6.5%, and residential construction grew by 6.7%, showcasing economic resilience despite concerns over household consumption [1]. - Oil prices have dropped by 15.2% in 2025, impacting Canada's crude oil export revenues and weakening support for the Canadian dollar [2]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Uncertainties - The U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum products have negatively affected related industries, contributing to investment uncertainties in Canada [2]. - The review of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) adds further uncertainty to trade dynamics, particularly affecting Canadian exports to the U.S. [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Predictions - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently experiencing a weak oscillation around the 1.3800 mark, with technical indicators suggesting potential downward movement [2]. - Short-term predictions for the USD/CAD exchange rate are set between 1.3740 and 1.3830, with key resistance at 1.3890 and support levels at 1.3740 and 1.3680 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is influenced by the upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, with market participants exhibiting a cautious outlook [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The GBP/USD has shown resilience, with a 0.63% increase in November and maintaining a strong performance in December, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a £26 billion tax adjustment plan in the UK [1] - UK inflation remains above target, with October CPI at 3.6% and core inflation at 3.4%, limiting the Bank of England's ability to cut rates [1] - The US economy shows signs of cooling, but remains resilient, with stable employment and weak consumer and manufacturing sectors, reinforcing expectations for Fed easing [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a significant divergence in market expectations for the two central banks, with an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, and predictions of multiple cuts in 2026 [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England on December 18, but there are internal disagreements regarding inflation risks [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has been trending upwards along short-term moving averages, with effective support at the 10-day moving average [2] - The exchange rate has broken above the 200-day moving average at 1.3326 but faces resistance at the 100-day moving average of 1.3365; a breakout above 1.3370 could target 1.3420-1.3450 [2] - Long-term forecasts suggest a trading range of 1.31-1.37 for GBP/USD by 2026, with UBS predicting a rise to 1.40 by September and JPMorgan forecasting 1.39 by March [2] Group 4: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's meeting and the Bank of England's decision on December 18, which could significantly impact the GBP/USD exchange rate [2]