分析称，即将公布的通胀和就业报告对于塑造美联储利率路径预期至关重要，这些数据很可能打破近期 的波动区间。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月14日电（王姝睿）美元本周表现疲软，市场焦点集中于美联储政策及12月议息会议前 的美国经济数据。美国结束历史性政府停摆，即将发布的数据可能带来上行或下行意外，交易员保持谨 慎，避免在市场波动性全面回归前建立大规模头寸。 经济迷雾难以快速消散 随着美国政府机构恢复运转并开始发布积压的经济数据，市场可能结束近期的平静状态，进入新一轮波 动周期。 美国银行指出，美国政府"开门"后，外汇市场波动性即将回归。ICE美元指数与两年期利差的关系显 示，当前美元对全球利率的敏感度已达到第一季度以来最高水平。这意味着当美国重启经济数据发布 后，由于市场对美联储与主要海外央行利率路径的预期分化，美元很可能出现大幅波动。外汇交易商通 常更青睐利率更高、回报更丰厚的货币。 "随着数据发布恢复正常，美国利率差异波动性将从近期低位回升。"策略师称，"这使得政府停摆结束 后即将公布的美国经济数据更具市场影响力。" 具体时间表尚不明确。参照2013年美国政府停摆经验，非农就业报告在政府重启5天后发布，本 ...

在美国联邦政府有望重新开门、即将发布包括非农报告在内的一系列数据前，交易员正加紧为美元波动性上升做准备，与美元现货指数挂钩的一个月期期权 合约成本升至近一周以来的最高水平。 据悉，当地时间9日晚，美国国会参议院推进一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，其程序性投票获得了通过该法案所需的60票支持，将结束已持续40天的创纪录政 府"停摆"推进了一步。按照流程，法案一旦在参议院获得正式投票通过后仍需众议院进行表决，然后提交美国总统特朗普签署。媒体报道称，这一过程需要 数天时间。目前尚不清楚这项法案能否在众议院顺利过关，民主党内部也未达成一致意见。 因此，通常在关键数据公布期间出现飙升的美元波动性此前有所下降。摩根大通编制的十国集团(G10)货币一个月期波动性指标在10月底触及一年多来最低 点。随着交易员预计在美联储决议与数据恢复发布前将出现汇率波动，该指标现已回升。 周一，美元指数小幅下跌，连续第四个交易日走低。 以下为多位外汇策略师的观点： 布朗兄弟哈里曼策略师Elias Haddad表示："我预计在积压数据陆续公布时将出现一波波动。如果数据证实经济仍具韧性，将利好美元。若数据显露疲态，则 12月降息的可能性上升，美元将承 ...

Core Insights - The fluctuation of the US dollar as a global trade settlement currency directly impacts the profits of foreign trade enterprises, influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments, global economic cycles, and geopolitical conflicts [1][2] Group 1: Factors Influencing Dollar Exchange Rate - The long-term trend of the dollar is fundamentally determined by the US economy and monetary policy direction, with GDP growth and employment data positively influencing dollar appreciation, while adverse conditions may lead to depreciation [3] - Global risk aversion and geopolitical risks also play a significant role, as funds tend to flow into the dollar during economic downturns or geopolitical tensions, leading to passive appreciation of the dollar [4] - Policies from major economies and trade patterns, such as the European Central Bank's interest rate decisions and the US trade deficit, can affect the relative value of the dollar [4] Group 2: Currency Risk Management Strategies - Locking in exchange rates is a core method for enterprises to hedge against currency risk, requiring a strategic approach that aligns with business operations and market trends [5] - Establishing a "data-driven" trend judgment system is essential, focusing on monitoring Federal Reserve policy signals, core economic data, and global capital flow data to make informed decisions on currency locking [6] - Matching business cycles with locking strategies is crucial, where short-term orders may utilize a combination of immediate and forward locking, while long-term orders should consider phased locking to mitigate timing risks [7] Group 3: Financial Tools and Business Strategies - Differentiated use of financial tools is necessary, such as purchasing foreign exchange put options for exporters during dollar depreciation expectations, and utilizing forward contracts for importers during dollar appreciation expectations [9] - Business-side risk hedging strategies include incorporating "exchange rate adjustment clauses" in contracts, optimizing settlement currency structures, and aligning foreign exchange inflows and outflows to reduce net exposure [10] - Real-time data and convenient operations are vital for effective currency management, with platforms like WorldFirst providing comprehensive support for businesses to manage exchange rate fluctuations and enhance capital turnover efficiency [11]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a significant increase of 1.00%, currently reported at 99.86 [1] - The USD/CHF exchange rate also saw a rise of 1.00%, now standing at 0.8137 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing significant volatility, reflecting a shift in the global economic and financial landscape, with a current quote of 98.42, down 0.22% from the opening price of 98.64 [1] Group 1: Dollar Normalization - The Dutch cooperative bank's report indicates that the dollar is entering a significant normalization phase after a decade of unusual strength, which was not based on stable economic fundamentals [3] - The current global financial market adjustment is prompting a reassessment of economic fundamentals, leading the dollar to return to a more reasonable value range [3] - Despite recent improvements in US trade data alleviating some concerns about trade deficits, the bank maintains a short-term recession forecast for the US economy, which is a core factor driving the dollar's normalization [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The normalization process suggests that the dollar's exchange rate may gradually align with long-term equilibrium levels, moving away from its previously extraordinary strength [4] - Increased volatility in the dollar's performance is expected due to frequent fluctuations in economic data and shifting market expectations [4] - Key economic indicators such as employment, inflation, and GDP growth will directly reflect the health of the US economy and influence the supply-demand dynamics of the dollar [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance is a critical variable determining the dollar's trajectory, with its assessments of economic conditions and subsequent policy adjustments impacting the dollar's attractiveness in international markets [4] - Investors should closely monitor the alignment between the Federal Reserve's policy stance and the realities of the US economy to capitalize on potential investment opportunities and risks associated with dollar fluctuations [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently testing key resistance and support levels, with immediate resistance at the nine-day moving average of 99.16 [5] - A successful breakthrough of this level could enhance short-term price momentum and push the index towards the upper boundary of a descending channel around 99.90 [5] - If the index continues to rise and surpasses 99.90, bullish sentiment may strengthen, challenging the 50-day moving average at 100.59, which could significantly boost mid-term price momentum [5]

因为人民币资产的整体估值,还是低于全 球平均水平。 低估是最大的利好。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 那么，我们该如何看待美元汇率波动对投 资的影响呢? (1) 如果美元利率汇率降低，对非美元资 产有利。 例 如 A 股 港 股 ， 前 两 次 2 - 3 星 的 牛 市 (2016-2018年、2020-2021年），均出现 在人民币相对美元汇率大幅提升的阶段。 (2) 其中A股港股,在非美股市场中,受 益更多。 (3) 利率、汇率是影响资产价格的短期因 素，而非长期因素。 短期里的波动，更多的是带来投资机会。 在时间拉长之后,低估品种总会有上涨的 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...