2026年开年，人民币汇率延续2025年末的强势劲头，上演"开门红"行情。汇率在震荡中完成"7"的关键突破，创下32个月以来的新高，深刻影响着跨境汇 款、留学缴费、贸易结算...... 来源：新浪财经 回顾2025年四季度以来的汇率轨迹，美元兑人民币已形成明确的贬值主线。 2025年10-11月美联储降息预期升温引发美元走弱，人民币兑美元汇率从7.15关口启动温和升值，为后续行情奠定基础。2025年12月中旬，年末"结汇潮"来 袭，出口商因美元存款收益下降集中兑换人民币，离岸人民币强势升破7.0整数关口，一度触及6.989，创下15个月新高。 2026年1月1日，美元汇率开盘6.9940，当日最低触及6.9864，最高冲至7.0000，在7.0关口附近窄幅震荡，收盘报6.9868。2026年1月3日-4日汇率维持高位震 荡，美元汇率稳定在6.9931左右，最低触及6.9875，最高冲至7.0008，呈现"围绕7.0关口波动、人民币偏强"的格局。 2026年开年短短4个交易日内，在岸人民币累计回升超1500点，离岸人民币反弹近2000点，强势格局一目了然。 美元降息预期主导走势 美元的弱势表现是人民币升值的关键 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Trends - The manufacturing sector in China is showing positive signs, with the June PMI at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating a recovery in both production and new orders [1] - The manufacturing demand for steel is expected to increase as more policies are implemented to stabilize and boost the economy, including the issuance of special bonds and urban renewal projects [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Global Economic Conditions - There is a widespread optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of three rate cuts in the second half of the year, which could enhance global liquidity and improve steel export conditions for China [2] - The depreciation of the US dollar is significant, with the dollar index dropping below 96.50, raising concerns about the dollar's future and potentially leading to increased demand for steel in developing countries [3] Group 3: Trade Relations and Real Estate Market - The trade relationship between China and the US is expected to improve, reducing the intensity of the tariff war, which could positively impact China's steel market [4] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and increasing housing sales, which will likely boost steel demand [5]