资产配置快评 2025 年 08 月 05 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 【资产配置快评】2025 年第 35 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： Strong tech is always a sharp instrument. —Dr Alexander Caedmon Karp 1. 非农就业人数不及预期或难以推动美国失业率走高 2. 持续下降的调查回复率影响美国就业数据的质量 3. 美联储 7 月份议息会议的反对票数量升至 32 年以来最高 4. 广义美元投机净空头持仓降至 4 个月以来最低水平 5. 就业数据差于预期没有扭转投资者的通胀上行预期 6. 沪深 300 指数权益风险溢价（ERP）周度更新 7. 中国 10 年期国债远期套利回报周度更新 8. 美元兑日元互换基差和美元融资溢价周度更新 9. 铜金价格比与离岸人民币汇率走势周度更新 10.中国在岸股债总回报相对表现周度更新 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 华创证券 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's government is aggressively lowering rice prices, aiming to reduce the price of 5 kg of rice to 2000 yen, which is 47% lower than the latest price published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries[5] - As of May 30, the speculative net long position in yen has decreased to 164,000 contracts, an 8.4% drop from the peak in early May, marking five consecutive weeks of decline[10] - The US leading economic index fell to -4% in April, the lowest level since October of the previous year, indicating that the negative impact of tariffs may be less than expected[13] Group 2: Market Trends - Overseas investors net sold Japanese government bonds exceeding 1 trillion yen in May, totaling 1.6 trillion yen over four weeks[7][9] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is at 5.8%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, indicating a significant excess return compared to domestic 10-year government bonds[19] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is 23.3, below the 16-year average, suggesting an increased attractiveness of stocks relative to fixed income assets[30] Group 3: Credit and Financing - As of May, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial bank loans in the US reached 3.9%, the highest since October 2023, supporting corporate output and potentially alleviating upward pressure on unemployment[16] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap was -25 basis points as of May 30, indicating a loosening of the offshore dollar financing environment following the reduction of tariff impacts[25]