Group 1: Inflation and Commodity Performance - The total return ratio of gold to U.S. Treasuries reached 0.41 by December 2025, indicating that high inflation risks may have been fully priced in, as historical comparisons show similar levels during periods of high inflation with CPI at 9.7% and 8.3%[5] - The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index fell by 1% in the first nine months of 2025, while the CRB Commodity Index rose by 1.7%, reflecting a subdued performance in commodities due to the contraction of the U.S. "twin deficits" from 11.5% to 9.8% of GDP[11] - The gold-to-silver price ratio dropped to 51 as of January 16, 2026, below the 60-year average of 59, suggesting potential downward pressure on gold prices[8] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Interest Rates - The weighted average yield of U.S. Treasuries rose to 3.36% by Q3 2025, the highest since Q2 2009, while interest expenses as a percentage of GDP increased to 3.86%[14] - The U.S. mortgage effective rate was 4.2% as of Q3 2025, which is 2.1% lower than the 30-year mortgage rate, indicating a potential overestimation of the pressure on household consumption from high mortgage rates[17] - The weighted duration of U.S. Treasuries decreased from 72 months to 71.3 months, alleviating some pressure on government interest expenses[14] Group 3: Equity Risk Premium and Market Indicators - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index was 4.1% as of January 16, 2026, which is below the historical average by one standard deviation, indicating potential for valuation uplift[20] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 29.3 as of January 16, 2026, above the past 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equity assets relative to fixed income[30] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 34 basis points as of January 16, 2026, which is 64 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22]

Economic Indicators - The ratio of U.S. household net wealth to disposable income has risen to 7.9 times, up from 7.7 times in Q3 2024, reaching the highest level since Q1 2022, indicating recovery from the negative impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes[4] - The debt leverage ratio of non-financial corporations in the U.S. has fallen below 100% for the first time in a decade, now at 98.8%[10] - The global share of U.S. dollars in foreign reserves has dropped to 56.9%, the lowest in 30 years, while the euro's share has increased to 20.3%[12] Market Performance - As of Q3 2025, the S&P 500 index has risen to 6,689 points, while the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index has decreased to 329[4] - U.S. pension funds increased their equity holdings to $9.7 trillion in Q3 2025, up from $8.8 trillion in Q2 2025, with a funding gap now below $2 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2008[6] Productivity and Returns - U.S. labor productivity has increased by 66.8% since 1991, significantly outpacing other developed economies, with the Eurozone at 28.9%, Japan at 19.7%, and the UK at 17.6%[16] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is currently at 4%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, indicating potential for valuation uplift[19] Financial Market Dynamics - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is currently at 37 basis points, which is 67 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap is at -17 basis points, indicating increased offshore dollar financing pressure, while the Libor-OIS spread is at 122.7 basis points, reflecting a rise in the use of the Fed's standing repo facility[25]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the current state of the U.S. stock market from a valuation perspective, focusing on three key valuation indicators: Equity Risk Premium (ERP), Shiller CAPE, and Buffett Indicator, highlighting that all three suggest the market is currently overvalued and future returns may be lower than in recent years, while also noting that these indicators do not predict short-term market movements [4][19]. Group 1: Equity Risk Premium - Equity Risk Premium (ERP) measures the attractiveness of stocks relative to risk-free assets, calculated as the S&P 500 dividend yield minus the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds [8]. - Historical data shows that during periods of high market valuations and low dividend yields, such as the 2000 internet bubble and the recent period, ERP often turns negative, indicating that Treasury investments are more attractive [9]. - Conversely, after significant market downturns, like the 2008-2009 financial crisis, ERP can rebound, suggesting that stocks become more appealing compared to Treasuries [9][10]. Group 2: Shiller CAPE - Shiller CAPE, developed by economist Robert Shiller, assesses market valuation by using the inflation-adjusted average earnings over the past ten years, providing a smoother and more stable measure [13]. - The Shiller CAPE has shown three significant peaks in the last 40 years: during the 1999-2000 internet bubble, before the 2007 financial crisis, and in the current post-pandemic period, with the latest peak approaching historical highs [13][14]. - While Shiller CAPE can illustrate market conditions over long cycles, it does not predict short-term price movements, and high valuations do not necessarily lead to immediate declines [14]. Group 3: Buffett Indicator - The Buffett Indicator compares the total market capitalization of publicly traded companies to the country's GDP, indicating whether the market is overvalued or undervalued [17]. - Since 1980, this ratio has significantly increased, with the market capitalization reaching over 200% of GDP in recent years, surpassing levels seen during the 2000 internet bubble [18]. - Although the Buffett Indicator does not specify when the market will peak or decline, it suggests that when market capitalization is significantly higher than economic output, future long-term returns are likely to be lower [19].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is regaining its status as a highly attractive investment asset, contrary to previous concerns about its future due to "sell America" sentiments [1][3] Group 1: Dollar's Investment Appeal - A simple strategy involves borrowing low-yield currencies (like yen or Swiss franc) and investing in dollars, potentially yielding higher returns than European stocks [1] - Despite a nearly 7% decline in the dollar index this year, it has rebounded about 3% from September's lows, partly due to arbitrage trading [1] - JPMorgan's strategist Yuxuan Tang asserts that the dollar will remain a high-yield currency, maintaining a strong position from both trend and yield perspectives [1] Group 2: Impact of Arbitrage Trading - The attractiveness of dollar arbitrage strategies is amplified by significantly reduced dollar volatility, partly due to a prolonged US government shutdown [3] - As investors seek higher returns elsewhere, liquidity tends to increase, driving up high-risk asset prices, although this trend can reverse quickly with market volatility [3] - The S&P 500 index has risen over one-third since its April low, with European and Chinese stock indices also experiencing significant gains [3] Group 3: Comparative Returns and Risks - Investors in Chinese stocks see annualized returns of only 0.23% for each percentage point increase in volatility, while low-risk arbitrage trading yields 0.54% [5] - The potential risks of dollar arbitrage trading include a sudden drop in short-term interest rates, which could diminish its advantages [5] - Deutsche Bank's Jacky Tang notes that the dollar remains an attractive arbitrage asset, although uncertainties exist regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions [5][6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - For investors looking to maintain dollar arbitrage strategies into 2026, there is optimism as US inflation reached 3% in September, above the Fed's 2% target [6] - Wells Fargo's strategist Aroop Chatterjee indicates that as long as the macroeconomic and financial environment remains stable, dollar arbitrage trading may continue to be appealing [6]

Group 1 - The ratio of total returns between gold and U.S. Treasuries suggests that high inflation risks may have been adequately priced in, with the ratio reaching 0.38 as of October 2023, comparable to levels seen in August 1975 and June 1978 when U.S. CPI was significantly higher [2][4] - The skewness of options for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has rebounded, indicating increased investor concern over inflation risks, leading to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.1% despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [2][4] - The U.S. Treasury's increased debt issuance has resulted in a surge in the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), with Treasury cash reserves rising from $330 billion to $1 trillion between June and October 2023, while commercial bank reserves fell significantly [8][10] Group 2 - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index was reported at 4.4% as of October 31, 2023, indicating a potential for valuation uplift as it is below the historical average [14] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was noted at 27 basis points, which is significantly higher than levels recorded in December 2016, suggesting improved arbitrage opportunities [16] - The total return ratio between domestic stocks and bonds stood at 28.6 as of October 31, 2023, indicating that the relative attractiveness of equity assets compared to fixed income has increased [26]

Group 1: Inflation and Asset Performance - The total return ratio of gold to U.S. Treasuries has surged to 0.38 as of October 2025, indicating that high inflation risks may have been fully priced in[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.1%, despite the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut, reflecting concerns over inflation rather than economic downturn[10] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is at 4.4%, which is one standard deviation below the 16-year average, suggesting potential for valuation uplift[18] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Financing Pressures - The U.S. Treasury has increased debt issuance significantly, leading to a surge in the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), which reached over $50 billion, a five-year high[13] - Commercial bank reserves have dropped from $3.4 trillion to $2.9 trillion, resulting in increased short-term dollar financing pressures[16] - The 10-year Chinese government bond forward arbitrage return is at 27 basis points, which is 57 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[22] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Indicators - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap is at -24.6 basis points, indicating higher offshore dollar financing costs, while the Libor-OIS spread is at 106.3 basis points, reflecting eased offshore dollar financing pressures[25] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has fallen to 2.7, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.1, indicating diverging signals between the two metrics[27] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 28.6, above the average level of the past 16 years, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets relative to fixed income[29]

Economic Overview - Eurozone's fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP for Germany, France, and Italy was 2.2% in H1 2025, down from 2.5% in Q4 2024, indicating a "tight fiscal & loose monetary" environment[4] - U.S. core CPI in September 2025 was 3%, below the expected 3.1%, showing a decrease in inflationary pressure[7] - U.S. durable goods consumption expenditure increased by $20 billion, from $5.56 trillion to $5.68 trillion, despite new tariffs[10] Market Valuation - The effective exchange rate index for the euro was at a historical high of 130 as of October 24, 2025, indicating overvaluation of euro assets[13] - The 10-year government bond yield spread between Italy and Germany fell to 79 basis points, and between Greece and Germany to 66 basis points, both at 15-year lows, reflecting low risk premiums in Southern European bonds[13] Commodity Insights - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4,336.4, exceeding the 200-day moving average by 32.5%, suggesting potential for a price correction[16] - The copper-to-gold price ratio fell to 2.7, indicating a divergence with the offshore RMB exchange rate, which rose to 7.1[27] Investment Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 4.2%, significantly below the 16-year average, suggesting room for valuation increases[18] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 28.8, above the past 16-year average, indicating enhanced attractiveness of equities over fixed income[29]

Group 1: Market Trends - The ratio of the Dow Jones Index to gold prices has decreased to 1.2 times, the lowest level since October 2014[3] - The S&P 500 Index to gold price ratio has fallen to 1.8 times, nearing its year-to-date low[3] - The oil-to-gold price ratio has dropped to 10.9, the second-lowest level in over 100 years, indicating strong recession expectations[6] Group 2: Investment Insights - Short selling of ultra-long U.S. Treasury ETFs has reached 24% of total shares, the highest since February 2022, suggesting upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields[10] - The net interest margin for U.S. small and medium banks remains high, with margins of 3.8% for banks with assets between $100 million and $1 billion[13] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index is at 4.5%, below the historical average, indicating potential for valuation uplift[18] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The expectation for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to fall below 4% is not supported by trading data, as short selling increases[10] - The 10-year Chinese government bond forward arbitrage return is currently 30 basis points, 60 basis points higher than in December 2016[21] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has decreased to 2.5, indicating a divergence with the offshore RMB exchange rate, which has risen to 7.1[26]

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The total return ratio of gold to U.S. Treasuries has risen to 0.37 as of September 2025, indicating that high inflation risks may have been fully priced in[4] - Bank credit growth has rebounded to 4.7% year-on-year as of August 2025, the highest level in 24 months, which may help suppress rising unemployment rates in the U.S.[7] - The 10-year government bond yield spread between France and Germany has widened to 79 basis points, reflecting a lack of confidence in French government bonds[10] Group 2: Productivity and Market Trends - U.S. labor productivity is projected to grow by 66.3% by 2026 compared to Q4 2019, significantly outpacing Europe and Japan[13] - The long-term trend of Chinese equity assets outperforming other emerging markets appears to have resumed, with the MSCI China Index showing a recovery[15] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index is currently at 4.3%, indicating potential for valuation uplift compared to historical averages[18] Group 3: Financial Market Dynamics - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is at 29 basis points, which is 59 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[20] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has decreased to 2.6, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.2, indicating diverging signals in the market[26] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds in China is at 28.5, above the average level of the past 16 years, suggesting increased attractiveness of equity assets[28]

Group 1: Market Trends - After the Federal Reserve's September meeting, investors reduced their short positions on the US dollar, with speculative net short positions decreasing from 12,900 to 10,400 contracts, a reduction of 2,500 contracts, representing a decline of 7.9% in total positions[10] - In Q2 2025, the debt leverage ratio across various sectors in the US fell, with household debt leverage dropping to 68.8%, the lowest since Q3 1999[11] - The ratio of US household net wealth to disposable income increased to 7.8 times, reaching the highest level since Q3 2024, with net wealth rising to $176.3 trillion[15] Group 2: Investment Insights - As of July 2025, foreign investors held a record $9.16 trillion in US Treasury securities, an increase of $32 billion from June[16] - US pension funds increased their equity holdings by $900 billion in Q2 2025, bringing total equity holdings to $8.9 trillion[21] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 4.3% as of September 26, 2025, indicating potential for valuation uplift compared to historical averages[22] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 31 basis points as of September 26, 2025, up 61 basis points from December 2016[27] - The copper-gold price ratio fell to 2.7, while the offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 7.1, indicating diverging signals in demand dynamics[34] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds in China was 28.2, above the average level of the past 16 years, suggesting enhanced attractiveness of equity assets[36]