本报记者 葛孟超 为对冲美元风险，各国政府和全球主要央行近年来加快推动储备多元化，大规模增持黄金，成为推升金 价的重要力量，黄金在各国外汇储备中所占的份额上升。 专家表示，从整体走势看，国内金价与国际金价长期趋势高度相关，但短期波动受汇率及国内市场独特 的供需差异影响，形成独立于国际的波动节奏，显示出国内黄金定价影响力的提升。 在国际金价上涨的带动下，多种贵金属价格均出现了明显上涨。去年，国际现货白银、铂金价格上涨均 超过140%，钯金上涨超100%。"黄金作为贵金属龙头，其强势行情激活板块轮动，带动贵金属价值整 体估值上升，推动资金涌入白银、铂族金属等关联品种。"上海息壤实业黄金圈首席分析师蒋舒说，同 时，部分贵金属的工业需求增加，也是支撑其价格上升的重要因素。比如，光伏和电动汽车产业的快速 发展，数据中心和人工智能领域的爆发式扩张，对白银需求构成支撑。 新年以来，国际金价在高位震荡，市场各方对金价后市走势颇为关注。世界黄金协会美洲区首席执行官 兼全球研究负责人安凯表示，展望2026年，黄金市场将进入多重力量交织、动态平衡的新阶段。 面对火热的黄金市场，专家提醒投资者应保持理性，充分认识市场风险。在投资黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - RBC Capital Markets suggests that the US dollar may face a prolonged sell-off similar to the dot-com bubble if the current supportive factors turn into headwinds, indicating a need for traders to prepare for potential declines in the dollar [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Market Conditions** - The US dollar has been significantly impacted this year due to uncertainties surrounding President Trump's policies [1] - Despite these challenges, the dollar has received support from a soaring stock market and global investors reallocating to US assets, particularly from large passive investment funds [1]

Group 1 - President Trump claims the government shutdown presents a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" to cut more Democratic priorities, indicating a strategy to undermine political opponents during the shutdown period [4][5] - The White House has frozen approximately $18 billion in funding for two major infrastructure projects in New York City and canceled about $8 billion in climate-related projects favoring Democratic states [4][5] Group 2 - A top forex analyst warns that the government shutdown exacerbates risks for the US dollar, with critical Federal Reserve communications becoming essential for traders due to the absence of economic data [7] - The political deadlock has delayed the release of weekly jobless claims data and may postpone the monthly non-farm payroll report [7] Group 3 - Amazon is under federal investigation after two Prime Air delivery drones collided with a crane in Arizona, leading to a temporary halt of drone services in the area [9] - The incident occurred near a commercial area close to an Amazon warehouse, prompting the company to cooperate with authorities for an investigation [9] Group 4 - Intel's stock price surged over 50% last month, with shares reaching above $37, resulting in the value of the US government's 10% stake in the company rising to approximately $16 billion [11] - The Trump administration acquired 433.3 million shares of Intel at $20.47 per share, totaling an investment of $8.9 billion [11] Group 5 - Elon Musk urged his followers to cancel their Netflix subscriptions due to controversy surrounding an animated show, which has drawn criticism from conservative groups [13] - The controversy relates to the show's representation of transgender characters, leading to its cancellation after two seasons in 2023 [13] Group 6 - President Putin stated that if the global market loses Russian oil supply, prices could "skyrocket" and exceed $100 per barrel [15] - He emphasized the severe implications for the global energy sector and economy if Russian oil is removed from the market [15]

本周一早间，现货黄金突破3800美元/盎司，续创历史新高，日内涨超1%。现货白银日内涨2.26%，报47.09美元/盎司。 现货黄金今年以来已经累计上涨近45%，不仅跑赢今年所有其他主要资产类别的表现，而且也创下了自1979年以来最大的年度涨幅。 全球投资者持续买入黄金 今年黄金的上涨受到多方面因素支撑。首先是美联储9月开启年内首次降息后，市场普遍预计其在接下来三个月内将进一步降息；此外，国际 地缘政治风险持续升温推升避险需求，全球黄金ETF持续收到热捧。 与此同时，景顺全球宏观策略师阿纳布·达斯（Arnab Das）也在近期表示，金价涨势仍有支撑。 "我们认为没有真正的黄金替代品可以对冲美国的风险，并预计各国央行将继续购买黄金......在我看来，各国央行购买黄金是因为他们认为没有 法定货币可以替代美元。"达斯说。 来自美国的风险是金价主要推动力 世界黄金协会表示，来自美国的风险是近期金价上涨的主要推手。 他们列举了两个原因。 首先，有证据表明，美国经济放缓的风险将使美联储进一步降低利率。这意味着持有美元现金储备的利息将会降低，与黄金相比，其吸引力会 降低。 其次，美国特朗普政府针对美联储独立性发出的威胁言 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged past $3500, marking a significant milestone and attracting global attention from investors [1][3] - The rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, indicating a potential new era for gold investment [3] Group 1: Reasons Behind Gold Surge - Signal 1: Expectations of interest rate cuts in September are increasing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [4] - Signal 2: Central banks are aggressively buying gold to mitigate dollar risks, providing strong support for gold prices [5] - Signal 3: The dollar is under short-term pressure due to trade tariffs, creating a divergence between gold prices and the dollar [6] - Signal 4: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] - Signal 5: The rising investment demand for gold, coupled with increasing mining costs, is contributing to higher gold prices [8] Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Key Point 1: The relationship between the dollar and interest rates will be crucial in determining gold price trends [10] - Key Point 2: Continued strong buying by central banks could indicate that $3500 may not be the peak for gold prices [11] - Key Point 3: Monitoring fund flows and market sentiment, such as ETF holdings and investor enthusiasm, will be essential for assessing gold price stability [12] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The company offers tools for gold trading, enabling ordinary investors to capitalize on the current market conditions [13] - Features such as low spreads and dual trading systems enhance the trading experience for investors [14][15] - The company provides daily strategies and live market updates to guide investors in navigating the gold market [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has joined European regulators in warning about the risks associated with the US dollar, reflecting concerns over the erosion of trust in the US as a cornerstone of financial stability due to recent policy changes under the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Bank of England has requested certain banks to test their resilience against potential shocks from the US dollar [1] - This follows similar requests made by European regulatory bodies regarding the assessment of banks' dollar funding plans and their reliance on the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Implications - A global bank based in the UK has been asked to conduct internal stress tests, including scenarios where the dollar swap market could completely dry up [1] - Given the dominant role of the dollar in the global financial system, no bank is believed to be able to withstand such a shock for more than a few days [1]