12月22日，美元兑加元报1.3796，较前一交易日微涨0.0002，跌幅收窄至-0.0362%，日内波动1.3787- 1.3804。近期该货币对持续区间博弈，核心驱动为美加央行政策分化，叠加油价低迷、经济数据分化及 地缘风险，短期方向不明。 作为商品货币，加元持续受油价拖累。2025年油价累计跌15.2%，近期跌至10月下旬低位，布油曾破70 美元/桶，削弱加拿大原油出口收入，压制加元、支撑美元兑加元。此外，美国封锁委内瑞拉制裁油轮 航运、强化对俄能源制裁，引发供应担忧，推升美元避险需求，进一步压制加元。 技术面看，美元兑加元呈空头主导。日线图显示，汇价连续收于关键均线下方，短期均线空头排列， 1.3800上方阻力未突破；MACD零轴下死叉、动能柱放大，印证空头延续；RSI弱势未超卖，仍有下探 空间。 机构预测，短期核心波动区间1.3740-1.3830，支撑位1.3720—1.3680(跌破或加速下行)，阻力位1.3830、 1.3890(未收复则弱势延续)。后续焦点为美国CPI、美联储官员讲话，及加拿大核心通胀、油价、美加贸 易消息。中长期走势取决于政策分化持续性、油价复苏及加国经济进程，全球不确定性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent high of 1.4062, driven by divergent monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside economic fundamentals and oil price movements [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% in October, marking the fourth cut of the year, and revised GDP growth expectations for 2025 down to 1.2% [1]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in November, but the US added 227,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations, which increased market expectations for a rate cut in December from 67% to 85% [1]. Economic Conditions - The Canadian economy is facing challenges, with a first-quarter GDP growth rate of 1.7% and weak performance in exports, investment, and consumption [1]. - In contrast, the US economy shows resilience, with a 4% increase in hourly wages and a consumer confidence index rising to 98.0 [1]. Oil Prices and Currency Impact - The Canadian dollar, as a resource currency, is highly correlated with oil prices, which have dropped from $77 per barrel in February to $68.33, negatively impacting Canadian energy exports [1]. - The widening interest rate differential of over 200 basis points between the US and Canada supports the strength of the USD against the CAD [1]. Technical Analysis - The exchange rate is stabilizing around the Bollinger Band midline of 1.3865, with resistance at 1.4062 and 1.4100, and support at 1.3980 and 1.3950, indicating a short-term strong oscillating pattern [2]. - Institutions predict that if the exchange rate breaks above 1.4062, it could open up further upward movement [2]. Market Variables - Key variables to monitor include the Federal Reserve's December decision, Canadian inflation data for November, and international oil prices influenced by OPEC+ policies and demand signals [2]. - The MACD indicator suggests that the exchange rate is at a critical point, and investors should be cautious of increased volatility following a breakout [3]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a trading strategy within the 1.3980-1.4060 range, tracking oil prices and US-Canada economic data [3]. - A rise in oil prices above $70 or signals from the Bank of Canada to pause rate cuts could present opportunities to buy CAD, while a cooling of Fed rate cut expectations could favor USD appreciation against CAD [3].