周五亚洲时段，日元兑主要货币普遍走弱，兑美元触及近三周低点。 日元走势的核心驱动力仍是日本央行的政策抉择。市场对于央行是否及何时进一步调整利率存在明显分 歧，这种不确定性，叠加对日本财政健康状况的持续担忧，共同对日元构成压力。家庭支出与收入的背 离、领先指标与同步指标的分化，均凸显日本经济复苏的复杂性。 日本经济数据发出复杂信号。总务省数据显示，11月家庭平均支出同比增长2.9%至314,242日元，远超 市场预期的下滑1.0%；环比更大幅增长6.2%，显著高于2.7%的预期。然而，同期家庭月均收入同比下 降2.2%至519,304日元。消费的强劲增长与收入的持续下滑，引发市场对支出可持续性的质疑。 另一关键指标显示经济前景有所改善。内阁府数据披露，11月领先经济指标升至110.5，为2024年5月 （111.1）以来的最高水平，预示未来经济活动可能回暖。但衡量现状的同步指标从115.9微降至115.2， 显示经济短期动能仍不稳定。 市场情绪方面，亚洲股市多数上扬，投资者正等待美国就业报告以评估美联储政策路径。市场普遍押注 美联储可能在2026年至少降息两次，这一预期为美元提供了支撑，进而施压日元。同时，美国 ...

12月22日，澳元兑美元汇率报0.6617，温和震荡上行态势。近期该货币对在0.66关口附近反复博弈，多 空双方围绕澳美两国货币政策路径差异、经济数据分化及全球风险情绪展开激烈争夺，中长期走势核心 逻辑逐渐清晰。 回顾2025年全年，澳元兑美元走出了一波惊艳的V型反转行情。年初汇率在0.6140附近徘徊，4月9日一 度下探至全年最低点0.5914，随后开启强劲修复进程，9月17日触及年内高点0.6707，截至目前全年累计 上涨约7%。这一走势背后，是美元信用弱化与澳大利亚经济稳定形成的鲜明对比，全球外汇定价逻辑 从"强美元"追逐转向各国基本面相对优劣的比较。 货币政策层面的利差预期变化，成为驱动汇率走势的核心动力。美国方面，美联储在2025年9月重启降 息周期，三个月内实施三次降息，当前政策利率维持在3.5%-3.75%区间。尽管美联储官员在12月会议上 释放鹰派信号称明年或不再降息，但市场预期存在显著分歧，利率期货数据显示，市场已计入2026年至 少两次额外降息的可能性，政策利率终点预期落至3.00%-3.25%区间。此外，2025年第四季度美国联邦 政府长达六周的停摆，削弱了政策可预期性，美元指数全年下跌 ...

12月22日，美元兑加元报1.3796，较前一交易日微涨0.0002，跌幅收窄至-0.0362%，日内波动1.3787- 1.3804。近期该货币对持续区间博弈，核心驱动为美加央行政策分化，叠加油价低迷、经济数据分化及 地缘风险，短期方向不明。 作为商品货币，加元持续受油价拖累。2025年油价累计跌15.2%，近期跌至10月下旬低位，布油曾破70 美元/桶，削弱加拿大原油出口收入，压制加元、支撑美元兑加元。此外，美国封锁委内瑞拉制裁油轮 航运、强化对俄能源制裁，引发供应担忧，推升美元避险需求，进一步压制加元。 技术面看，美元兑加元呈空头主导。日线图显示，汇价连续收于关键均线下方，短期均线空头排列， 1.3800上方阻力未突破；MACD零轴下死叉、动能柱放大，印证空头延续；RSI弱势未超卖，仍有下探 空间。 机构预测，短期核心波动区间1.3740-1.3830，支撑位1.3720—1.3680(跌破或加速下行)，阻力位1.3830、 1.3890(未收复则弱势延续)。后续焦点为美国CPI、美联储官员讲话，及加拿大核心通胀、油价、美加贸 易消息。中长期走势取决于政策分化持续性、油价复苏及加国经济进程，全球不确定性 ...

澳元/美元汇率走势受美元影响显著。当前美元指数（DXY）在98.20附近震荡整理，美联储政策预期分歧是美元维持区间波动的核心原因。 美国11月经济数据呈现分化特征：非农新增就业6.4万个，略高于预期，但10月数据被下修，失业率升至4.6%（2021年以来新高）；零售销售数据持平，显 示消费需求放缓。 周三外汇市场，澳元对美元连续第五日下跌，澳元/美元货币对在0.6630附近震荡。 澳大利亚央行（RBA）加息预期升温，这一因素可能限制澳元跌幅，对其形成支撑。 市场对RBA政策转向的关注度上升，核心原因在于经济产能受限背景下通胀持续高企。 澳大利亚联邦银行与国民银行均上调加息预期，认为RBA将早于此前预测启动紧缩政策。这一判断基于上周RBA 2025年最后一次会议释放的鹰派信号。 互换合约定价显示，2月RBA加息概率为28%，3月加息概率升至近41%，8月加息已被市场充分定价。加息预期对澳元形成托底作用，将约束其下跌空间。 加息预期提供长期支撑的同时，经济数据分化对澳元形成短期压制。标普全球12月PMI数据显示，制造业PMI从51.6升至52.2，服务业PMI从52.8降至51.0， 综合PMI从52.6降至51 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic stock index is resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are in a repricing adjustment, with short - term periodic callbacks and rebounds, and limited downside risks. The market volume is shrinking, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The short - term bond market is in a box - type shock stage. For 10 - year treasury bonds, the active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in a narrow range of 1.8% - 1.83%. Different treasury bond futures contracts have their respective expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended accordingly [2]. - Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - $4150, and may rise to over $4200 if it breaks through the resistance. Silver follows gold but has a larger amplitude, oscillating in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. - The container shipping index (European Line) is in short - term shock downward movement [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with the recovery of apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating with a bullish bias, while coking coal and coke are viewed as bearish in the shock [2]. - Copper prices have risen and then fallen due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations. Other non - ferrous metals have their own expected price ranges and trends [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, various products such as PTA, short - fiber, and others have different market trends and trading strategies recommended [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products like soybean meal, pigs, and others have different supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Category Financial - **Stock Index**: Domestic stock index is resilient. After the third - quarter reports, A - shares are repricing. Short - term periodic fluctuations with limited downside. Market volume shrinking, recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term box - type shock. Different contracts have specific expected fluctuation ranges. Unilateral, migration, and cash - futures strategies are recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold oscillates between $4050 - $4150, may rise above $4200 if breaking resistance. Silver fluctuates more with gold, in the range of $50 - $52.5. Short - term light - position long positions can be tried if volatility increases [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize due to apparent demand recovery. Recommend to pay attention to support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating with a bullish bias, in the range of 750 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1050 - 1150 [2]. - **Coke**: Viewed as bearish in the shock, in the range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices rise and then fall due to stronger interest - rate cut expectations, with a reference range of 85500 - 87500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: With a confrontation between strong expectations and weak reality, prices may decline further if the position continues to be reduced, with a reference range of 21100 - 21700 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each has its own expected price range and trading suggestions [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Petrochemical Products**: Different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - **Plastics and Chemicals**: Products like LLDPE, PP, and methanol have their own market trends and recommended operations [2]. - **Building Materials**: Glass rebounds with the cold - repair of production lines in Hubei, and other building materials have different trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillates with limited short - term drivers, and synthetic rubber is expected to face pressure above [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different products such as soybean meal, corn, and palm oil have different supply - demand situations and trading strategies [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: Pigs have supply pressure, and eggs have a slow de - capacity process [2]. - **Cash Crops**: Products like cotton, sugar, and apples have different market trends and trading suggestions [2].

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - The economic data for October highlights three temperature levels: strong, moderate, and weak[2] - The production service industry and equipment manufacturing showed strong performance, with the production index for the information industry growing by 13% and equipment manufacturing by 8%[4] - Essential consumption grew by 4.2% in October, surpassing the previous value of 3.4%, while cumulative growth for the first ten months was 4.4%, better than last year's 4.0%[19] Group 2: Investment and Construction Trends - Manufacturing investment saw a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% in October, down from -1.9% previously, and a cumulative growth of 2.7% for the first ten months[22] - Infrastructure and real estate investments continued to decline, with real estate investment down by 23% in October compared to the previous month[44] - The overall growth rate for subsidy-related durable goods consumption dropped to -2.6% in October, down from 3.9%[7] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The government is expected to support technology innovation sectors where sentiment is better than economic performance, while consumption sectors may see further growth opportunities[2] - If economic growth deviates from annual targets, policies may flexibly increase support for subsidy-related consumption and construction chains[2]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for September shows a significant divergence between production and demand, with production remaining resilient while demand indicators have notably declined [1] Demand Side Analysis - Investment growth in September continues its rapid downward trend, falling below market consensus expectations [1] - Retail sales growth in September has decreased slightly, influenced by the overdraw effect of previous subsidies and a higher base, also falling short of market expectations [1] Outlook for Q4 - There is an expectation for a mild improvement in fixed asset investment growth in Q4, driven by the implementation of new policy financial tools [1] - Attention is drawn to the potential decline in export and retail sales growth in Q4 compared to Q3, due to high base effects [1] Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance has announced two measures to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery [1] - There is a recommendation to monitor the impact of subsequent policies aimed at expanding service consumption on boosting household spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to contrasting economic reports from the US and China, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Economic Reports Impact - The US Labor Department reported that non-farm employment increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 [1] - Concurrently, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced a manufacturing PMI of 49.3, marking the second consecutive month below the growth threshold [1] Market Reaction - The spot gold price surged from $3,268 per ounce to $3,363 per ounce, achieving a single-day increase of 2.23%, the largest daily gain in nearly a month [1] - This price movement reflects a reconfiguration of pricing logic influenced by the "US recession alarm" and "Chinese policy easing" [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data in May showed a mixed performance, with external demand weakening but government subsidies taking effect. While the economy demonstrated resilience in Q2, facing a growth target of 5% is not difficult, but pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge in Q3, making it necessary to introduce incremental policies. The bond market is desensitized to the fundamentals and will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. External Demand Weakens but Government Subsidies Take Effect, Economic Data Shows Mixed Performance - **Production Side: Industrial Production Weakens, Service Industry Strengthens** - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.8%, lower than expected and the previous value, with external demand weakening and persistently low prices being the main reasons. The growth rate of the service industry production index was 6.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, due to policy support and holiday demand [1][13][14] - Looking ahead, the production growth rate is likely to maintain a resilient decline, with structural differentiation continuing. Industrial production will face downward pressure, but the year-on-year reading of industrial added value will not decline significantly. The growth rate of the service industry production may weaken, but will not decline sharply either [19] - **Demand Side: Manufacturing, Real Estate, and Infrastructure Growth Rates All Decline** - From January to May, the cumulative investment growth rate in manufacturing was 8.5%, continuing to decline. External demand weakening, the domestic supply-demand imbalance, and policy factors have affected corporate investment willingness, but policy support has maintained a certain level of resilience [22] - From January to May, the cumulative growth rate of general infrastructure was 10.42%, showing a slight decline. The slow issuance of local special bonds is the main reason. In the short term, infrastructure growth may face downward pressure, but it will rise again with policy support [26][30] - Most real estate data continued to weaken. The willingness of the residential sector to purchase homes with debt remains low, and real estate companies are facing increasing financial pressure. Policy aims to stabilize the real estate market while accelerating industry transformation [31][32][33] - **Demand Side: Retail Sales Growth Rate Exceeds Expectations and Rebounds** - In May, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 6.4%, higher than the previous value. Holiday factors and government subsidies have stimulated consumer demand, but the sustainability of consumption improvement needs to be observed. In Q3, incremental policies are expected to boost consumption [36][37][39] 2. The Bond Market is Desensitized to the Fundamentals and Maintains an Oscillatory Pattern in the Short Term - The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but market participants are well aware of this, so fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. The yield curve is relatively flat, and the upward space for long-term bonds mainly depends on the performance of short-term bonds [40][41] - Short-term bonds are currently overvalued, and their upward movement requires confirmation of a continuous loosening of the money supply. In the short term, the market will be oscillatory, and the bond bull market may show a "stop-and-go" rhythm [42] - Strategies include paying attention to mid - line long positions on dips, noting that the opportunities for futures positive spreads have significantly decreased, and initial opportunities for steepening the yield curve have emerged, requiring close attention to changes in liquidity expectations [43][44][45]

观点简述： 上周市场全周继续微涨趋势，沪深300指数周涨幅0.38%，上证综指周涨幅0.56%，中证500指数 周涨幅1.20%。市场维持了少见的窄幅震荡状态，资金重点期盼重要会议的方向指引。 每周思考总第626期 《 久盘滞涨，建议再降仓 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月27日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 基本面上，美国经济数据的割裂度不断提升。 国内方面，上周央行MLF超额续作，但市场重点 关注的财政与货币刺激政策时间表依旧未能在4月政治局会议中有明确指示，这也意味着4月关税冲击 对国内经济基本面的影响或将难免；海外方面，美国继续披露各维度经济数据，各条线数据分化有所 扩大，如成屋销售继续低迷但新房销售重回高位、就业PMI维持弱势但失业人数保持平稳、最为矛盾 的是消费同比保持高增但消费者信心与投资者信心都已跌至过去4年新低，美国经济基本面的锚定指 标出现如此巨幅分化走势是 ...