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Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - The economic data for October highlights three temperature levels: strong, moderate, and weak[2] - The production service industry and equipment manufacturing showed strong performance, with the production index for the information industry growing by 13% and equipment manufacturing by 8%[4] - Essential consumption grew by 4.2% in October, surpassing the previous value of 3.4%, while cumulative growth for the first ten months was 4.4%, better than last year's 4.0%[19] Group 2: Investment and Construction Trends - Manufacturing investment saw a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% in October, down from -1.9% previously, and a cumulative growth of 2.7% for the first ten months[22] - Infrastructure and real estate investments continued to decline, with real estate investment down by 23% in October compared to the previous month[44] - The overall growth rate for subsidy-related durable goods consumption dropped to -2.6% in October, down from 3.9%[7] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The government is expected to support technology innovation sectors where sentiment is better than economic performance, while consumption sectors may see further growth opportunities[2] - If economic growth deviates from annual targets, policies may flexibly increase support for subsidy-related consumption and construction chains[2]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for September shows a significant divergence between production and demand, with production remaining resilient while demand indicators have notably declined [1] Demand Side Analysis - Investment growth in September continues its rapid downward trend, falling below market consensus expectations [1] - Retail sales growth in September has decreased slightly, influenced by the overdraw effect of previous subsidies and a higher base, also falling short of market expectations [1] Outlook for Q4 - There is an expectation for a mild improvement in fixed asset investment growth in Q4, driven by the implementation of new policy financial tools [1] - Attention is drawn to the potential decline in export and retail sales growth in Q4 compared to Q3, due to high base effects [1] Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance has announced two measures to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery [1] - There is a recommendation to monitor the impact of subsequent policies aimed at expanding service consumption on boosting household spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to contrasting economic reports from the US and China, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Economic Reports Impact - The US Labor Department reported that non-farm employment increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 [1] - Concurrently, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced a manufacturing PMI of 49.3, marking the second consecutive month below the growth threshold [1] Market Reaction - The spot gold price surged from $3,268 per ounce to $3,363 per ounce, achieving a single-day increase of 2.23%, the largest daily gain in nearly a month [1] - This price movement reflects a reconfiguration of pricing logic influenced by the "US recession alarm" and "Chinese policy easing" [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic data in May showed a mixed performance, with external demand weakening but government subsidies taking effect. While the economy demonstrated resilience in Q2, facing a growth target of 5% is not difficult, but pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge in Q3, making it necessary to introduce incremental policies. The bond market is desensitized to the fundamentals and will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. External Demand Weakens but Government Subsidies Take Effect, Economic Data Shows Mixed Performance - **Production Side: Industrial Production Weakens, Service Industry Strengthens** - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.8%, lower than expected and the previous value, with external demand weakening and persistently low prices being the main reasons. The growth rate of the service industry production index was 6.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, due to policy support and holiday demand [1][13][14] - Looking ahead, the production growth rate is likely to maintain a resilient decline, with structural differentiation continuing. Industrial production will face downward pressure, but the year-on-year reading of industrial added value will not decline significantly. The growth rate of the service industry production may weaken, but will not decline sharply either [19] - **Demand Side: Manufacturing, Real Estate, and Infrastructure Growth Rates All Decline** - From January to May, the cumulative investment growth rate in manufacturing was 8.5%, continuing to decline. External demand weakening, the domestic supply-demand imbalance, and policy factors have affected corporate investment willingness, but policy support has maintained a certain level of resilience [22] - From January to May, the cumulative growth rate of general infrastructure was 10.42%, showing a slight decline. The slow issuance of local special bonds is the main reason. In the short term, infrastructure growth may face downward pressure, but it will rise again with policy support [26][30] - Most real estate data continued to weaken. The willingness of the residential sector to purchase homes with debt remains low, and real estate companies are facing increasing financial pressure. Policy aims to stabilize the real estate market while accelerating industry transformation [31][32][33] - **Demand Side: Retail Sales Growth Rate Exceeds Expectations and Rebounds** - In May, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 6.4%, higher than the previous value. Holiday factors and government subsidies have stimulated consumer demand, but the sustainability of consumption improvement needs to be observed. In Q3, incremental policies are expected to boost consumption [36][37][39] 2. The Bond Market is Desensitized to the Fundamentals and Maintains an Oscillatory Pattern in the Short Term - The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but market participants are well aware of this, so fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. The yield curve is relatively flat, and the upward space for long-term bonds mainly depends on the performance of short-term bonds [40][41] - Short-term bonds are currently overvalued, and their upward movement requires confirmation of a continuous loosening of the money supply. In the short term, the market will be oscillatory, and the bond bull market may show a "stop-and-go" rhythm [42] - Strategies include paying attention to mid - line long positions on dips, noting that the opportunities for futures positive spreads have significantly decreased, and initial opportunities for steepening the yield curve have emerged, requiring close attention to changes in liquidity expectations [43][44][45]

观点简述： 上周市场全周继续微涨趋势，沪深300指数周涨幅0.38%，上证综指周涨幅0.56%，中证500指数 周涨幅1.20%。市场维持了少见的窄幅震荡状态，资金重点期盼重要会议的方向指引。 每周思考总第626期 《 久盘滞涨，建议再降仓 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月27日累计收益7.79%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 基本面上，美国经济数据的割裂度不断提升。 国内方面，上周央行MLF超额续作，但市场重点 关注的财政与货币刺激政策时间表依旧未能在4月政治局会议中有明确指示，这也意味着4月关税冲击 对国内经济基本面的影响或将难免；海外方面，美国继续披露各维度经济数据，各条线数据分化有所 扩大，如成屋销售继续低迷但新房销售重回高位、就业PMI维持弱势但失业人数保持平稳、最为矛盾 的是消费同比保持高增但消费者信心与投资者信心都已跌至过去4年新低，美国经济基本面的锚定指 标出现如此巨幅分化走势是 ...