1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Bean Meal - The short - term trend is likely to be in a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. The support comes from factors such as the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, and relatively low inventory in domestic oil mills. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside potential [8]. 2.2 Soybeans - The short - term trend is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Bean meal: In the short - term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. - Soybeans: In the short - term, it is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in August remains high, and the inventory of oil mill bean meal is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, bean meal is in a short - term moderately strong oscillation [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Bean Meal - Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 161, indicating a discount to futures. - Oil mill bean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.4.2 Soybeans - Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 254, indicating a premium to futures. - Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - For both bean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players are increasing, and capital is flowing in [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market in the US is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as increased soybean imports in June and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - effectiveness advantage of domestic soybeans, and the expected increase in imports. It is also in a state of interaction between various factors and may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement reached in China - US tariff negotiations is beneficial for US soybeans, but the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pullback in the US soybean market. The market is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has recovered from a low level after May Day. However, the soybean meal inventory remains low, and the soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a state of oscillation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, resulting in a weakening demand for soybean meal after May Day. But the tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectation of soybean meal, and the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weakening and oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans [13]. - Low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills [13]. - Uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total volume of imported soybeans arriving in China will reach a high in June [13]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America persists [13]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [14]. - The expected increase in demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectation [14]. Bearish for Soybeans - The expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans persists, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans [14]. - The expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2900, with a basis of - 162, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 410,000 tons, a 7.19% increase from last week and a 58.79% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 58, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 5.996 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from last week and an 8.59% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Bean Meal - The US soybeans are oscillating and rising. The phone call between China and the US this week and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are positive for agricultural products. In the short term, US soybeans will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for the follow - up of the China - US tariff negotiation and the planting weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In China, bean meal is also oscillating and rising, supported by rapeseed meal and technical buying, but the increase in imported soybeans arriving at ports in June and the weak spot price are suppressing the market. The short - term trend will return to the range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for bean meal M2509 is between 2940 and 3000 [8]. 2.2. Soybeans - US soybeans are oscillating and rising, waiting for the follow - up of the China - US tariff negotiation and the planting weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In China, soybeans are oscillating and rising. The increase in imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the market, but the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price bottom. The expected trading range for soybeans A2507 is between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Recent Important News - The short - term agreement reached in the China - US tariff negotiation is positive for US soybeans, but due to the favorable recent planting weather in the US, the US soybean market has risen and then fallen. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybeans arriving at ports, and the follow - up of the China - US tariff negotiation. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving at ports in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, but the bean meal inventory remains low. In the short term, soybeans and related products have returned to an oscillating pattern affected by the outcome of the China - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. With the reduced pressure of the China - US tariff war, bean meal has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory remains low, and the strong spot price supports the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Bean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.2. Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1. Bean Meal - **Long factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas. - **Short factors**: The total volume of imported soybeans arriving at ports in China will rebound to a high in June, the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans persists [13]. 3.2.2. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation. - **Short factors**: The expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans persists, China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - **Bean meal**: The spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 179, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 298,000 tons, a 44.03% increase from last week's 206,900 tons and a 65.19% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 22, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 582,880 tons, a 3.97% increase from last week's 560,630 tons and a 20.45% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.4. Position Data - **Bean meal**: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **For Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The price of soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2920 and 2980. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is also affected by multiple factors and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160 for soybean A2507. The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back of the US soybean market. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiation [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean market returned to an oscillating pattern due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - The reduction of domestic pig - breeding profit has led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal and the strong spot price support the short - term price expectation. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variable impact of the Sino - US tariff war make the soybean meal market oscillate in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and further guidance on the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Bearish factors include the increase in the total arrival volume of imported soybeans in June and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors include the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors include the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From May 22 to June 3, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to narrow [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From May 23 to June 3, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed different trends. The futures price of soybean meal was relatively strong and oscillating, while the spot price was relatively weak after May Day, and the discount widened slightly [17][22]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From May 21 to June 3, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 decreased, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 decreased to zero, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal also decreased [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis [42]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills continued to rise, while the inventory of soybean meal remained low [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to rise, indicating an increase in long - term stocking demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills rebounded to a high level, but the output of soybean meal in April decreased year - on - year [24][48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures spread narrowed slightly [50]. - The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The prices of pigs and piglets fluctuated slightly [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [56]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit increased slightly [58].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2860至2920区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，油脂受美国生物柴油政策变动而大跌带动和技术性震荡整理，美 豆短期千点关口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国 内豆粕横盘震荡，5月进口大豆到港增多和未来美豆进口或恢复，但油厂豆粕库存处于低 位现货偏强支撑期货盘面底部，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2960（华东），基差37，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存10.12万吨，上周8.21万吨，环比增加23.26%，去年同期55.92万吨， 同 ...