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大越期货豆粕早报-20250820
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Bean Meal - The short - term trend is likely to be in a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. The support comes from factors such as the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, and relatively low inventory in domestic oil mills. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside potential [8]. 2.2 Soybeans - The short - term trend is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Bean meal: In the short - term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. - Soybeans: In the short - term, it is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in August remains high, and the inventory of oil mill bean meal is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, bean meal is in a short - term moderately strong oscillation [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Bean Meal - Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 161, indicating a discount to futures. - Oil mill bean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.4.2 Soybeans - Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 254, indicating a premium to futures. - Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - For both bean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players are increasing, and capital is flowing in [8][10].
大越期货豆粕早报-20250619
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 02:19
CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-19 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面:美豆震荡收涨,消息面短期平静和技术性震荡整理,美豆短期千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落,美豆 带动和技术性震荡整理,6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度,短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差:现货2900(华东),基差-162,贴水期货。偏空 3.库存:油厂豆粕库存41万吨,上周38.25万吨,环比增加7.19%,去年同期99.49万吨,同 比减少58.79%。偏多 4.盘面:价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5. ...
大越期货豆粕早报-20250609
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:42
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-09 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 1.基本面:美豆震荡回升,中美本周通话和俄乌冲突升级利多农产品,美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升, 菜粕带动和技术性买盘支撑,但6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面,进口巴 西大豆到港增多和中美关税谈判后续交互影响,短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差:现货2780(华东),基差-179,贴水期货。偏空 3.库存:油厂豆粕库存29.8万吨,上周20.69万吨,环比增加44.03%,去年同期85.61万吨, 同比减少65.19%。偏多 4.盘面:价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓:主力多单增加,资金流出,偏多 6.预期:美国大豆产区 ...
大越期货豆粕早报-20250604
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:55
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-04 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2507:4060至4160区间震荡 1.基本面:美豆震荡收涨,美豆优良率低于预期和技术性震荡整理,美豆短期千点关口上方 震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡收涨, 进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆继续增产预期压制盘面,但国产大豆性价比优势支撑 价格底部,短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差:现货4160,基差26,升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存560.63万吨,上周586.83万吨,环比减少4.46%,去年同期450.53万吨, 同比 ...
大越期货豆粕早报-20250516
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:54
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-16 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509:2860至2920区间震荡 1.基本面:美豆震荡回落,油脂受美国生物柴油政策变动而大跌带动和技术性震荡整理,美 豆短期千点关口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国 内豆粕横盘震荡,5月进口大豆到港增多和未来美豆进口或恢复,但油厂豆粕库存处于低 位现货偏强支撑期货盘面底部,整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差:现货2960(华东),基差37,升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂豆粕库存10.12万吨,上周8.21万吨,环比增加23.26%,去年同期55.92万吨, 同 ...