证 券 研 究 报 告 投资摘要： 【资产配置快评】2025 年第 42 期 兑现降息预期，否认降息周期——9 月美联 储议息会议点评 2025 年第 6 期 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 09 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 The art of statesmanship is to foresee the inevitable and to expedite its occurrence. —Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand 1. 美联储 9 月份议息会议宣布降息 25 个基点，把联邦基金利率区间从 4.25%- 4.5%降至 4%-4.25%。 2. 美联储上调美国经济增长预期和通胀预期，2025 年经济增长预期值上调 0.2%至 1.6%，2026 年核心 PCE 预期值上调 0.2%至 2.6%。 3. 最新点阵图显示，2025 年降息次数或从 2 次升至 3 次，2026 年和 2027 年 降息次数均保持在 1 次不变。 4. 美联储认为高关税向通胀水平的传导力度有所减弱，同时强化对于劳动力 市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump and the mild PCE data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in bond yields. However, a sell-off in technology stocks caused a reversal in stock gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively [1][2]. Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The announcement of Cook's dismissal raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, while the July PCE data met expectations, further increasing rate cut anticipations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.53 basis points to 4.228%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 7.96 basis points to 3.617%. The dollar index dropped by 0.06% to 97.77, while spot gold prices rose by 2.26% to $3447 per ounce [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Q2 GDP revision showed a seasonally adjusted annual rate of +3.3%, exceeding the expected +3.1%. Fixed asset investment's contribution was revised up from +0.08% to +0.59%, and consumption's contribution was adjusted from +0.98% to +1.07%. Analysts have slightly raised their Q3 growth expectations, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting +3.5% for Q3 [3][4]. Group 3: Political Developments - Trump's dismissal of Cook is unprecedented since the Federal Reserve's establishment in 1913, raising market concerns about the Fed's independence. Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump, and the case is expected to reach the Supreme Court. Additionally, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal, although tariffs will remain in effect until October 14 [4][5].

Employment Data Revision - Since 2025, U.S. non-farm employment data has been revised down by a total of 461,000 jobs, indicating a more significant weakness in the labor market than initially reported[2] - Historical patterns show that significant downward revisions in non-farm data often precede economic slowdowns, as seen during the 2001 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis[3] - The downward trend in non-farm data has been consistent over the past three years, with revisions of 546,000, 577,000, and 461,000 jobs respectively[3] Labor Market Indicators - Job vacancies have decreased from a peak of 12.134 million in March 2022 to 7.437 million by June 2025, a decline of nearly 40%[10] - The unemployment rate has risen from 3.5% in late 2023 to 4.2% by July 2025, reflecting a gradual but persistent upward trend[10] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits have increased from around 200,000 in early 2023 to 250,000 by June 2025, indicating a rise in layoffs[10] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 38% to 80% within a few days[13] - The likelihood of cumulative rate cuts of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year has increased from less than 8% to 53.1%[13] - The focus of market speculation has transitioned from "whether to cut rates" to "how much to cut" as labor market data continues to weaken[13]

Macro News - The CPI data released on Saturday showed a year-on-year increase stronger than expected, while the PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed, reflecting the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy [1] - The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin on August 15 in Alaska is uncertain, as Ukraine and Europe are unlikely to accept Putin's ceasefire conditions [1] - The White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky to Alaska, but the focus remains on preparing for the bilateral meeting proposed by President Putin [1] Institutional Views - Last week, gold continued its rebound, initiated by the significantly lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls in July, which raised expectations for interest rate cuts and led to a sharp decline in the dollar [1] - The ISM services PMI for July recorded 50.1, below the expected 51.5 and previous value of 50.8, indicating a slowdown in consumer demand since the fourth quarter of last year [1] - Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to fill the vacant Federal Reserve Board position is interpreted as an increase in Trump's intervention in monetary policy, negatively impacting the long-term credibility of the dollar and supporting the upward trend in gold [2] - The potential ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine situation could pose short-term risks to gold prices, but the long-term bullish outlook remains intact [2] - The strategy suggests buying gold and silver on dips as the market continues to react to these developments [2]

欧佩克月报：维持2026年美国经济增长预期为2.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

OECD将2025年全球经济增长预期从之前的3.1%下调至2.9%。 OECD将美国2025年经济增长预期从之前的2.2%下调至1.6%。 ...

Economic Outlook - Barclays has significantly raised its US economic growth forecast for this year to 0.5% from a previous estimate of -0.3%, and for next year to 1.6% from 1.5% [1] - Goldman Sachs has also increased its 2025 US economic growth forecast to 1% from a previous estimate of 0.5%, while reducing the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 45% to 35% [2] - JPMorgan's economists have lowered the recession risk for the US economy to below 50%, with a new growth forecast of 0.6% for 2025, up from 0.2% [3] Market Sentiment - Following the easing of US-China trade tensions, major Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have shifted their outlook on US equities from bearish to bullish [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the S&P 500 index to 6500 from 6200 [2] Federal Reserve Policy - The expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has diminished, with Goldman Sachs now predicting three rate cuts starting in December instead of July [1] - Barclays anticipates only one rate cut in 2025, with three additional cuts of 25 basis points in the following year, a change from their previous expectation of two cuts this year [1] Eurozone Outlook - Barclays has revised its Eurozone growth forecast to flat (0% growth) from a previous estimate of a 0.2% contraction, while still expecting a brief technical recession in late 2025 [3][4]

IMF世界经济展望报告：将2026年美国经济增长预期从2.1%下调至1.7%。 ...