美东时间1月8日（周四），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指收高270点，纳指承压。苹果连续7个交易日收跌。嘉能可与力拓重启谈判，计划组建全球规 模最大的矿业公司。 道指收高270点 截至收盘，道指收盘上涨270.03点，涨幅为0.55%，报49266.11点；纳指跌104.25点，跌幅为0.44%，报23480.02点；标普500指数涨0.53点，涨幅为0.01%， 报6921.46点。 国际评级机构惠誉上调美国2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期及2026年增长预测。纳入因去年底美国政府停摆而推迟发布的美国经济数据后修订了预 估。预计美国联邦储备委员会将在2026年上半年两次降息，将联邦基金利率（上限）降至3.25%。 美国财长贝森特表示："多数模型显示美联储利率区间或将落在2.5%至3.25%。利率仍远高于中性水平，我们不应处于紧缩模式。" 美联储理事米兰称，利率仍大幅高于中性水平，预计在2026年将进行约150个基点的降息，基本通胀率为2.3%；在不引发通胀的情况下，可能增加约一百 万个就业岗位。 据香港万得通讯社，美国总统特朗普表示，美国对委内瑞拉的监督可能会持续数年，将以非常有利可图的方式重建委内 ...

道琼斯运输平均指数在经济增长预期下反弹 智通财经获悉，在市场对今年美国经济将强劲增长的预期推动下，美国运输类股票周二收于历史新高。 数据显示，道琼斯运输平均指数上涨1.7%，收报18,033.58点，超过了2024年11月创下的此前历史高 位，该指数在前一交易日距离创新高仅一步之遥。优步(UBER.US)和卡车运输企业Old Dominion Freight Line(ODFL.US)位列当日涨幅榜前列。 运输类股票是在周一上涨1.2%的基础上继续走高的。周一航空和物流股上涨，原因在于市场预期，美 国对石油资源丰富的委内瑞拉采取干预行动，可能会带来更低的燃料价格。周二运输股迈向历史新高的 同时，美国股市整体走强——美股三大指数全线收涨，标普500指数收盘创历史新高，道指亦创新高并 首次收于49000点之上。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 据悉，道琼斯运输平均指数追踪了航空、卡车运输、海运、快递服务和物流等行业的20只美国运输股。 运输物流业通常被视为经济的风向标，因为它洞察了广泛行业的供需情况。 去年，受美国总统特朗普发动的贸易战在市场中引发连锁反应、以及卡车运输行业低迷拖累， ...

道琼斯运输平均指数在经济增长预期下反弹 据悉，道琼斯运输平均指数追踪了航空、卡车运输、海运、快递服务和物流等行业的20只美国运输股。 运输物流业通常被视为经济的风向标，因为它洞察了广泛行业的供需情况。 去年，受美国总统特朗普发动的贸易战在市场中引发连锁反应、以及卡车运输行业低迷拖累，道琼斯运 输平均指数大幅下挫。与此同时，史上持续时间最长的美国联邦政府停摆导致航班混乱，也令航空公司 雪上加霜。而此次反弹，正值与美国经济健康状况高度相关的股票整体表现跑赢大盘之际。 在市场对今年美国经济将强劲增长的预期推动下，美国运输类股票周二收于历史新高。数据显示，道琼 斯运输平均指数上涨1.7%，收报18,033.58点，超过了2024年11月创下的此前历史高位，该指数在前一 交易日距离创新高仅一步之遥。优步(UBER.US)和卡车运输企业Old Dominion Freight Line(ODFL.US)位 列当日涨幅榜前列。 Jonestrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke表示："过去12个月，运输类股票面临几大逆风因素，使 投资者保持谨慎——尤其是贸易战、关税以及政府停摆。这一板块正在追赶整体市场 ...

来源：滚动播报 彭博最新调查显示，经济学家小幅上调了美国经济增长预期。2026 年美国国内生产总值（GDP）的预 期增长率从此前的 1.9% 上调至 2%，2025 年的增长预期也被修正为 2%。通胀预期则小幅走低，2026 年消费者物价指数（CPI）预计为 2.8%，这一数据表明物价压力正逐步缓解。市场对利率的预期保持不 变，预计到 2026 年底美联储政策利率将降至 3.25%，意味着未来美联储或将逐步降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, which saw a significant drop of 5.7% on the New York Commodity Exchange, is attributed to changing expectations regarding the U.S. economy following the IMF meeting, leading to a reassessment of the factors supporting gold investments [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Analysis - Gold prices surged from $3000 to $4000 per ounce in less than two months, with an overall increase of over 60% this year, making a correction inevitable [1]. - The 5.7% drop in December gold futures represents the largest single-day percentage decline since June 20, 2013 [1]. - The IMF meeting in Washington likely led participants to raise their expectations for U.S. economic growth, which removed a key support for recent gold investment logic [1][2]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions on Price Drivers - Robin Brooks from Brookings Institution argues that the main driver of recent gold price movements is the state of the U.S. economy and the potential for recession, which influences Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][2]. - Carsten Stork from Stratcom Capital suggests that the gold price drop is a mechanical adjustment following market exuberance, driven by over-leveraged positions and algorithmic trading [2]. - Other analysts, such as Peter Perkins from MRB Partners, indicate that the strengthening dollar is a contributing factor, asserting that gold prices are historically high and overvalued relative to stock markets, money supply, and GDP [2].

Group 1 - Economists have raised their growth forecasts for the US economy for the next two years, with a projected GDP growth of 1.8% for this year, up from the previous estimate of 1.3% [1] - Retailers are cutting or delaying hiring seasonal workers due to uncertainties related to the economy and tariffs, impacting their ability to prepare for the holiday shopping season [1][4] - The hiring plans of retailers indicate the first signs of the holiday shopping season, but the US job market is losing momentum, partly due to uncertainties from the trade war [4] Group 2 - A specific retailer plans to hire 220 temporary workers for the holiday season, which is a decrease from the 300 hired last year, and they have started recruitment nearly two months earlier than usual [1] - Analysts will closely monitor consumer reactions to price increases from retailers due to high tariff costs in the coming months [4]

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in September, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25%[4] - The updated dot plot indicates an increase in expected rate cuts for 2025 from 2 to 3 times, while maintaining 1 cut for both 2026 and 2027[3] Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.2% to 1.6% and the core PCE inflation forecast for 2026 by 0.2% to 2.6%[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 was adjusted down from 4.5% to 4.4%[6] Risk Assessment - The Fed noted a weakening transmission of high tariffs to inflation levels and emphasized the softening labor market[2] - The risks to employment have increased, leading to the decision to cut rates[5] Market Implications - Post-rate cut, investor risk pricing may shift towards U.S. inflation risks and macroeconomic risks in the Eurozone[2] - The Fed's rate cut is characterized as a "risk management" cut, indicating no systemic economic downturn is anticipated[8] Consumer and Credit Data - U.S. household consumption remains better than expected, with the unemployment rate still low, suggesting a resilient economy[9] - As of August, corporate credit growth reached a 27-month high at 4%, indicating strong bank lending activity[9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump and the mild PCE data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in bond yields. However, a sell-off in technology stocks caused a reversal in stock gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively [1][2]. Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The announcement of Cook's dismissal raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, while the July PCE data met expectations, further increasing rate cut anticipations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.53 basis points to 4.228%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 7.96 basis points to 3.617%. The dollar index dropped by 0.06% to 97.77, while spot gold prices rose by 2.26% to $3447 per ounce [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Q2 GDP revision showed a seasonally adjusted annual rate of +3.3%, exceeding the expected +3.1%. Fixed asset investment's contribution was revised up from +0.08% to +0.59%, and consumption's contribution was adjusted from +0.98% to +1.07%. Analysts have slightly raised their Q3 growth expectations, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting +3.5% for Q3 [3][4]. Group 3: Political Developments - Trump's dismissal of Cook is unprecedented since the Federal Reserve's establishment in 1913, raising market concerns about the Fed's independence. Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump, and the case is expected to reach the Supreme Court. Additionally, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal, although tariffs will remain in effect until October 14 [4][5].

Employment Data Revision - Since 2025, U.S. non-farm employment data has been revised down by a total of 461,000 jobs, indicating a more significant weakness in the labor market than initially reported[2] - Historical patterns show that significant downward revisions in non-farm data often precede economic slowdowns, as seen during the 2001 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis[3] - The downward trend in non-farm data has been consistent over the past three years, with revisions of 546,000, 577,000, and 461,000 jobs respectively[3] Labor Market Indicators - Job vacancies have decreased from a peak of 12.134 million in March 2022 to 7.437 million by June 2025, a decline of nearly 40%[10] - The unemployment rate has risen from 3.5% in late 2023 to 4.2% by July 2025, reflecting a gradual but persistent upward trend[10] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits have increased from around 200,000 in early 2023 to 250,000 by June 2025, indicating a rise in layoffs[10] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 38% to 80% within a few days[13] - The likelihood of cumulative rate cuts of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year has increased from less than 8% to 53.1%[13] - The focus of market speculation has transitioned from "whether to cut rates" to "how much to cut" as labor market data continues to weaken[13]

Macro News - The CPI data released on Saturday showed a year-on-year increase stronger than expected, while the PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed, reflecting the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy [1] - The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin on August 15 in Alaska is uncertain, as Ukraine and Europe are unlikely to accept Putin's ceasefire conditions [1] - The White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky to Alaska, but the focus remains on preparing for the bilateral meeting proposed by President Putin [1] Institutional Views - Last week, gold continued its rebound, initiated by the significantly lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls in July, which raised expectations for interest rate cuts and led to a sharp decline in the dollar [1] - The ISM services PMI for July recorded 50.1, below the expected 51.5 and previous value of 50.8, indicating a slowdown in consumer demand since the fourth quarter of last year [1] - Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to fill the vacant Federal Reserve Board position is interpreted as an increase in Trump's intervention in monetary policy, negatively impacting the long-term credibility of the dollar and supporting the upward trend in gold [2] - The potential ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine situation could pose short-term risks to gold prices, but the long-term bullish outlook remains intact [2] - The strategy suggests buying gold and silver on dips as the market continues to react to these developments [2]