法国巴黎银行认为，部分数据即使恢复，日程也将严重滞后。 美国政府陷入旷日持久的停摆，关键经济数据的发布陷入停滞，对于一个本已处于近年来最严重分裂状 态的美联储而言，即将到来的12月议息会议正面临着在信息真空中做出艰难抉择的困境。 最新的动态是，原定于下周公布的10月CPI也岌岌可危。据媒体报道，美国劳工统计局不仅推迟了该报 告的发布，甚至已暂停了线下数据的收集工作。市场越来越认为，劳工统计局很可能将完全放弃发布10 月份的CPI报告。 在此之前，已有两份月度就业报告延迟发布。官方通胀与就业市场数据的缺失，将使美联储内部关于是 否需要在12月再次降息的辩论变得更加漫长和复杂。 尽管市场仍倾向于12月降息，但缺乏官方数据，可能会给那些担心通胀重燃的政策制定者一个在下个月 维持利率不变的充分理由。 因此，在缺乏硬数据的情况下，投资者的目光将转向下周多位美联储官员的公开讲话，包括John Williams、Raphael Bostic、Stephen Miran和Alberto Musalem，以期从中寻找政策路径的蛛丝马迹。 数据真空加剧决策困境 对于依赖数据做决策的美联储来说，当前的局面极为棘手。尽管决策者们在上 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that gold prices fell due to unexpected high inflation data from the US, with December 2025 gold futures dropping by $26.0 to $3382.3 per ounce, a decrease of 0.76% [1] - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than June's zero growth and market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, surpassing June's 2.3% and market expectations of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [1] Group 2 - Following the inflation report, US stock markets weakened, while the dollar and long-term US Treasury yields increased, slightly reducing market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - The US labor market showed resilience, with initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 decreasing by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than the market expectation of 228,000 [1] - The dollar index jumped approximately 25 points after the data release, surpassing the 98 mark, while gold prices significantly declined, reaching an intraday low [1] Group 3 - Silver futures for September delivery also fell, decreasing by $0.567 to $38.035 per ounce, a decline of 1.47% [2]

Market Overview - The market is characterized by a constant tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with fluctuations in price movements being common. The focus should be on preserving capital and developing strategies to respond to market changes [1] Gold Market Insights - Despite optimistic expectations regarding the US-China trade agreement, gold prices opened strong on June 9, 2023. Increased risk appetite has led to a rebound in the stock market, reducing the demand for gold as a safe haven, which has prevented gold prices from reaching new highs since peaking at $3,500 in April [1] - The upcoming high-level trade talks between the US and China, along with previous positive communications between leaders, may sustain market optimism, putting pressure on gold's short-term outlook. Additionally, a strong US employment report could bolster the dollar, further suppressing gold prices [1] Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices tested a low of $3,293 before rebounding to $3,338, but closed below the critical resistance level of $3,335, leading to a further decline to $3,301. The current market remains in a weak oscillating pattern, with key support at $3,293 and resistance at $3,338 [2] - The core trading range is identified between $3,338 and $3,293, with a breakdown below $3,293 potentially opening up further declines to $3,245. Conversely, a breakout above $3,340 could lead to a rally towards $3,400 [2] Trading Strategies - For long positions, it is suggested to enter lightly when gold prices retreat to the $3,300-$3,310 range, with a stop-loss set below $3,290 and a target of $3,335-$3,345 [3] - For short positions, if prices rebound to $3,345 and face resistance, a light short position may be considered, with a stop-loss above $3,355 and a target of $3,325 [3] Domestic Gold Market Performance - Domestic gold prices followed international trends, with notable increases observed. The Shanghai gold market reached a high of 781, while accumulated gold peaked at 774 and financing gold at 772. Short-term profits were noted for positions established at 772 for Shanghai gold and 765 for accumulated and financing gold [3] - Although the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, short-term adjustments are still anticipated, with potential buying opportunities expected around the 750 level [3]