The pivotal U.S. jobs report for December is supposed to be the first normal one since the government shutdown, but it could prove devilishly hard for investors to parse. ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government is experiencing a prolonged shutdown, leading to a halt in the release of key economic data, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [1][2] - The October CPI report, originally scheduled for release next week, is now in jeopardy, with the Labor Statistics Bureau potentially abandoning its publication altogether [1][2] - The absence of official inflation and employment data will prolong and complicate the debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of another rate cut in December [1][2] Data Vacuum and Decision-Making Challenges - The current situation poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, which relies heavily on data for decision-making [2] - The lack of recent employment reports and key inflation data is undermining the foundation of policy-making [2] - The absence of official data may strengthen the position of FOMC members concerned about the risk of inflation accelerating again, potentially leading to a decision to maintain interest rates [2] Alternative Indicators - During this period of missing official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative inflation indicators are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [4] - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the year-on-year increase in October CPI may be similar to the lower-than-expected 3% in September [5] - However, these alternative indicators cannot fully replace the authority of official reports, and the absence of timely data increases decision-making costs [5] Future Scenarios and Implications - The Federal Reserve's final decision in December will heavily depend on when the government shutdown ends and how quickly economic data can catch up [6] - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential impact of data recovery on policy decisions, including the release of outdated employment reports [6][7] - If the government reopens by the end of November, the market may see the September employment report before the December meeting, but it may not be sufficient to convince the Fed to pause rate cuts [6] - If both September and October employment reports are released, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3%, a pause in rate cuts becomes a possible option [7] - In an ideal scenario where three complete employment reports are available, the decision will hinge on the unemployment rate, with specific thresholds influencing the Fed's actions [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that gold prices fell due to unexpected high inflation data from the US, with December 2025 gold futures dropping by $26.0 to $3382.3 per ounce, a decrease of 0.76% [1] - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than June's zero growth and market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, surpassing June's 2.3% and market expectations of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [1] Group 2 - Following the inflation report, US stock markets weakened, while the dollar and long-term US Treasury yields increased, slightly reducing market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - The US labor market showed resilience, with initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 decreasing by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than the market expectation of 228,000 [1] - The dollar index jumped approximately 25 points after the data release, surpassing the 98 mark, while gold prices significantly declined, reaching an intraday low [1] Group 3 - Silver futures for September delivery also fell, decreasing by $0.567 to $38.035 per ounce, a decline of 1.47% [2]

Market Overview - The market is characterized by a constant tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with fluctuations in price movements being common. The focus should be on preserving capital and developing strategies to respond to market changes [1] Gold Market Insights - Despite optimistic expectations regarding the US-China trade agreement, gold prices opened strong on June 9, 2023. Increased risk appetite has led to a rebound in the stock market, reducing the demand for gold as a safe haven, which has prevented gold prices from reaching new highs since peaking at $3,500 in April [1] - The upcoming high-level trade talks between the US and China, along with previous positive communications between leaders, may sustain market optimism, putting pressure on gold's short-term outlook. Additionally, a strong US employment report could bolster the dollar, further suppressing gold prices [1] Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices tested a low of $3,293 before rebounding to $3,338, but closed below the critical resistance level of $3,335, leading to a further decline to $3,301. The current market remains in a weak oscillating pattern, with key support at $3,293 and resistance at $3,338 [2] - The core trading range is identified between $3,338 and $3,293, with a breakdown below $3,293 potentially opening up further declines to $3,245. Conversely, a breakout above $3,340 could lead to a rally towards $3,400 [2] Trading Strategies - For long positions, it is suggested to enter lightly when gold prices retreat to the $3,300-$3,310 range, with a stop-loss set below $3,290 and a target of $3,335-$3,345 [3] - For short positions, if prices rebound to $3,345 and face resistance, a light short position may be considered, with a stop-loss above $3,355 and a target of $3,325 [3] Domestic Gold Market Performance - Domestic gold prices followed international trends, with notable increases observed. The Shanghai gold market reached a high of 781, while accumulated gold peaked at 774 and financing gold at 772. Short-term profits were noted for positions established at 772 for Shanghai gold and 765 for accumulated and financing gold [3] - Although the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, short-term adjustments are still anticipated, with potential buying opportunities expected around the 750 level [3]