转自：鹤城发布 11月14日晚间，金价、银价突然大幅跳水。 现货黄金价格一度大跌3.21%，报4051.22美元/盎司；期货黄金跌幅为3.53%，报4046.4美元/盎司。 银价同样大跌，期货白银大跌超5%，现货白银跌超3.4%。 同时，沪金、沪银期货主力合约下挫，现均跌超3%。 ▌本文来源：橙柿互动·都市快报 央视财经 鹤城发布综合 编辑 | 唐阳 责编 | 房阔 审核 | 戚莹 统筹 | 孟繁宇 监制 | 娄翠微 合作微信 | mdy1188 ...

Core Insights - The new tax policy for gold, jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, has triggered significant market reactions, including adjustments in gold accumulation services by major state-owned banks and price increases for gold jewelry [1][2] - The policy aims to clarify the distinction between investment and non-investment uses of gold, thereby addressing potential tax arbitrage opportunities that existed under previous regulations [1] Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax regulations optimize existing benefits by reducing taxes on gold purchased through exchanges while maintaining the tax rules for non-exchange channels [1] - A tax "watershed" is established for physical gold withdrawal, where no VAT is applied if gold is not extracted, but different VAT treatments apply based on the investment or non-investment use of the gold [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The tax changes are expected to encourage investment demand to shift towards standardized platforms like the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange, aligning with modern financial investment trends [2] - The reduction in input tax deduction rates for non-investment gold uses from approximately 13% to 6% will increase the tax costs for gold jewelry manufacturers, potentially leading to higher consumer prices for gold jewelry [2] Group 3: Global Market Positioning - The new tax policy not only aims to regulate the domestic market but also seeks to enhance China's positioning and influence in the global gold market by improving the liquidity and price discovery function of "Shanghai Gold" [2] - By aligning with international standards, the policy is expected to strengthen China's voice in global gold tax and trading rule formulation, thereby enhancing its governance influence in the global gold market [2]

Group 1 - The new tax policy for gold, issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, has led to significant market reactions, including adjustments in gold accumulation services by major state-owned banks and price increases for gold jewelry [1] - The policy clarifies the distinction between investment and non-investment uses of gold, aiming to eliminate tax arbitrage opportunities that existed under previous regulations [1] - The new regulations optimize existing tax benefits for trading gold on exchanges, reducing taxes for exchange transactions while maintaining existing tax rules for non-exchange channels [1] Group 2 - The tax policy encourages investment demand to shift towards standardized platforms like the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange, aligning with modern financial investment trends [2] - The input tax deduction rate for gold used in non-investment applications, such as jewelry and industrial purposes, has decreased from approximately 13% to 6%, increasing the tax burden on gold jewelry manufacturers [2] - The new policy is expected to enhance China's position and influence in the global gold market by lowering transaction costs and improving the liquidity and price discovery of "Shanghai Gold" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to enhance the regulation of the gold market by distinguishing between "investment gold" and "non-investment gold," thereby encouraging more transactions through formal channels and reducing illegal trading and speculation [2][6]. Tax Policy Adjustments - The new regulations optimize existing tax incentives, focusing on four key dimensions, including the differentiation of tax benefits between exchange and non-exchange channels [3][4]. - Transactions of standard gold through exchanges like the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will be exempt from value-added tax (VAT) upon sale, while sales outside these exchanges will incur a VAT of 13% [3][4]. - The policy establishes a clear distinction between physical delivery and non-delivery transactions, with non-delivery transactions exempt from VAT, thus maintaining tax advantages for exchange-based trading [4][5]. Definition of Gold Types - The announcement provides clear definitions for "investment gold" and "non-investment gold," with investment purposes including direct sales and the production of high-purity gold products, while non-investment purposes encompass all other uses [5][6]. - Different tax treatments will apply based on the intended use of the gold, with investment gold subject to immediate VAT refund and non-investment gold exempt from VAT [5][6]. Compliance and Regulation - The new rules impose compliance requirements on member units purchasing standard gold, mandating accurate reporting of intended use for physical delivery, with penalties for non-compliance [4][6]. - The regulations aim to close loopholes that previously allowed for tax evasion and improper use of tax benefits, thereby enhancing the integrity of the gold market [6][7]. Impact on Costs and Market Dynamics - For ordinary consumers, the purchase cost of gold jewelry remains unchanged as the new regulations do not introduce new taxes; however, the procurement costs for jewelry brands and gold shops may increase, potentially affecting retail prices [9]. - The new policy is expected to significantly impact investors in physical gold, as they will face increased costs due to the inability to claim tax credits on sales, leading to a shift towards gold ETFs or futures for investment [9].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of the latest report, COMEX gold has seen a significant increase of over 10% in the past month, reaching a new historical high of $3739.3 per ounce [2] - The price of gold jewelry has also risen, with the price of 24K gold jewelry reaching 1091 RMB per gram, while other brands like Chow Sang Sang and Luk Fook have prices at 1087 RMB per gram [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - The market outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, which could be beneficial for gold prices [5] - The current economic conditions of "high interest rates + high debt" are leading to increased costs for U.S. government debt interest, contributing to ongoing concerns about U.S. Treasury and dollar credit risks, while central bank gold purchases continue [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged significantly, with COMEX gold rising over 10% in the past month, reaching a new historical high of $3739.3 per ounce [2] - Accompanying the rise in international gold prices, the price of gold jewelry has also increased, with major brands like Chow Sang Sang reporting prices of 1091 RMB per gram for gold jewelry [4] - Other brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook have also adjusted their gold prices to around 1087 RMB per gram, reflecting the overall trend in the gold market [4] Group 2 - Looking ahead, Huashan Fund anticipates that the Federal Reserve is likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, which could benefit gold prices [5] - The current economic environment characterized by "high interest rates + high debt" is leading to increased interest costs on U.S. government debt, contributing to ongoing concerns about U.S. Treasury and dollar credit risks [5] - Central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, indicating that gold is on a path towards a new cycle of growth [5]

Market Overview - In September 2025, the gold market exhibited a strong volatile pattern, with Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures at 831.22 CNY per gram, a slight decrease of 0.26% from the previous trading day, but a cumulative increase of 2.67% from early September [1] - Internationally, New York Commodity Exchange gold futures were priced at 3669.5 USD per ounce, down 0.34% intraday, yet close to the critical resistance level of 3700 USD predicted by Kitco analysts, with a cumulative increase of 7.8% since late August [1] Demand Dynamics - According to the World Gold Council's latest report, global gold demand reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, with investment demand surging by 78% year-on-year, and China's gold ETF holdings increasing by 173.73% in the first half of the year, indicating strong market recognition of gold's safe-haven attributes [3] Price Correlation - The relationship between futures and spot gold prices is highly correlated, with a 97% linkage observed on September 11, where the price difference between London spot gold and New York futures remained around 39 USD [4] Investment Platform Security - In the context of rising gold prices, choosing a compliant platform is crucial for investment success. Hong Kong Jinsheng Precious Metals, a recognized member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers transaction codes for trades over 0.1 lots, enhancing transparency and reducing the risk of fraudulent transactions [5] Trading Tools and Cost Management - The profitability of gold investments is influenced by market conditions, trading tools, and cost control. Jinsheng Precious Metals utilizes the MT4 & MT5 dual-platform system, allowing investors to set stop-loss and take-profit points, effectively acting as a safety net for investments [7] - The platform also implements a zero-commission policy, with a favorable spread of 30 USD per lot for London gold, combined with a 2% margin requirement, significantly improving capital efficiency, especially for beginners [7] Price Influencing Factors - Understanding the fluctuations in futures gold prices requires attention to three key dimensions: monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and physical demand. The market currently anticipates a 89.4% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [8] Risk Management Principles - New investors in gold should adhere to fundamental principles: confirm the regulatory qualifications of the trading platform, utilize stop-loss tools based on personal risk tolerance, and establish diverse information channels to form independent judgments [9]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article discusses the current dynamics of the gold market, highlighting the impact of Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical tensions on gold prices [3][4][6] - As of September 2, 2025, domestic gold prices reached 803.84 CNY per gram, reflecting a 1.47% increase, while international gold futures were priced at 3377.2 USD per ounce, indicating sustained investor interest [3][4] - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is seen as a significant support for gold prices, with a nearly 90% probability of this outcome [3][4] Group 2: Investment Platform Selection - For new investors, choosing a reliable trading platform is crucial, with Hong Kong Gold Sheng Precious Metals Co., Ltd. being highlighted for its regulatory compliance and professional services [4] - The platform supports MT4 & MT5 trading modes, ensuring fast order execution and transparency in transactions, which is essential for risk management [4][6] Group 3: Risk Control Methods - Effective risk control in gold investment involves both technical analysis and position management, with key support and resistance levels identified for gold prices [6][7] - Investors are advised to utilize stop-loss tools provided by trading platforms to mitigate potential losses during market volatility [6][7] Group 4: Investment Education - New investors often confuse futures gold with physical gold, with futures offering leverage but also higher risks, while physical gold is more suited for long-term value retention [7] - The article warns against misleading claims of "high returns with zero risk," emphasizing the need for realistic investment expectations based on macroeconomic data and technical analysis [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current trading range for gold is expected to be between 3360 and 3320, with key resistance at 3365 and support levels at 3332, 3325, and 3320 [1] - The strategy suggests short positions at 3350-3352 and 3357-3360, with targets set at 3340-3330, while long positions can be initiated at 3325 and 3318 with a stop loss at 3310 [3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are showing signs of weakness, with resistance levels at 67 and 67.5, and support levels at 65.5, 65, and 64.4 [5] - The recommended strategy is to focus on short positions during rebounds, with specific entry points at 67 and 67.5, and a target range of 66.2-65.5 [7]

Group 1: Platinum Market - Recent volatility in platinum prices has raised concerns, with speculation and ETF demand driving prices to a ten-year high, rather than fundamental improvements [2] - A significant drop in precious metal futures was observed on June 27, with COMEX gold futures down 1.85% and spot platinum down 5.9%, indicating potential market instability [2] - Investors are advised to carefully assess market risks before investing in platinum, as its price is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, similar to industrial metals like copper [2] Group 2: Domestic Gold Market - The base gold price in the domestic market is 761.3 RMB per gram, but there are significant price differences among brands, with leading brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry priced around 989 RMB per gram [3][4] - The price variations are primarily due to brand premiums and craftsmanship costs, with some brands offering lower prices, such as Cai Bai Jewelry at 978 RMB per gram [3][7] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has reported a decline in prices for Au9999, Au9995, and Au100g gold bars, with decreases ranging from 0.42% to 0.58% [8] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The overall stability of the gold market contrasts with the volatility in the platinum market, highlighting the need for cautious investment strategies [9] - Consumers are encouraged to compare prices and services when purchasing gold jewelry or bars, ensuring they choose appropriate investment channels [9]