Group 1 - The geopolitical risks, particularly the escalating tensions between the US and Iran, are driving market sentiment towards safe-haven assets, notably gold [1][3] - As of the latest trading session, February gold futures rose by $6.3, closing at $4347.4 per ounce, reflecting a clear risk-driven market behavior [1] - The US Treasury market showed stability on the first trading day of 2026, with the 10-year Treasury yield maintaining around 4.10%, influenced by holiday trading conditions [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate a more open attitude towards easing monetary policy if inflation continues to decline, although there are still disagreements on the timing and extent of rate cuts [3] - The market anticipates two potential rate cuts in 2026, with attention on upcoming key economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report [3] - The gold futures market is currently targeting a price above the historical high of $4584.00 per ounce, while short positions aim to push prices below the critical support level of $4200.00 per ounce [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in international gold prices, reaching a peak of approximately $4,300 per ounce, driven by a weakening dollar and a surge in global risk-averse investments [1][3] - The macroeconomic fundamentals indicate that expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy are fueling the surge in gold prices, with recent U.S. inflation data showing unexpected slowdown and a cooling job market, leading to increased calls for monetary policy easing [1][3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions, are creating high uncertainty, prompting institutional investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] Group 2 - Economic data shows that the University of Michigan's December consumer confidence index was unexpectedly revised down to 52.9, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook, which in turn strengthens market expectations for a looser monetary environment [2][4] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 21.0% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January, despite hints from the Cleveland Fed President that policy may enter a pause [2][4] - Technical analysis reveals that gold's upward trend remains intact, with prices consistently above the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA), and the Bollinger Bands indicating increased market volatility driven by bullish sentiment [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The UBS report indicates that the minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting may reveal significant divisions among committee members, while calls for a rate cut in December remain strong [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting are expected to show serious disagreements among members [1] - Despite concerns about inflation from some Federal Reserve officials, a slight majority still leans towards further easing of monetary policy [1] - Data released before the December meeting is not anticipated to alter the strong sentiment for a rate cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The hint from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the easing of monetary policy has led to an increase in the stock prices of chip manufacturers [1] Group 1 - Chip manufacturers' stock prices have risen following the indication of a potential loosening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US July CPI data aligns with expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 3.1% increase in core CPI, which eases concerns about inflation due to President Trump's tariff policies [1] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated a reasonable wait-and-see approach, and the mild inflation data, along with weak employment data from the previous month, supports the rationale for easing monetary policy [1] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations for rate cuts to lower long-term US Treasury yields, the yield curve has steepened since the July CPI data release, indicating a decline in short-term yields and an increase in long-term yields [1] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen following Trump's criticism and recent personnel changes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which could disrupt market confidence in long-term US Treasury securities [2] - Historical precedents show that if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are less than the market's current pricing expectations, long-term yields may rise, as seen when the 10-year Treasury yield increased from approximately 3.7% to 4.6% despite a smaller-than-expected rate cut last year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that copper prices are influenced by U.S. inflation data supporting expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while rising inventories are limiting price increases [1][3] - London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper fell by 0.05% to $9,836.00 per ton, while Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) September copper contract rose by 0.56% to ¥79,380 per ton, reflecting mixed market sentiments [1][2] - Analysts note that the increase in copper inventories at both LME and SHFE is a significant factor restraining price growth, with LME copper inventories rising by 11% and SHFE inventories increasing by nearly 13% in August [3][4] Group 2 - The increase in inventories is attributed to a prior surge in shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of a 50% tariff on copper, which has since been alleviated as refined copper was excluded from the tariff [4] - The broader industry sentiment is bolstered by the prospect of U.S. monetary policy easing, as indicated by a report from ANZ analysts [2] - Other metals on the LME showed varied performance, with aluminum up by 0.23% to $2,625.50 per ton, while nickel, lead, tin, and zinc experienced slight declines [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Korea is inclined towards further easing of monetary policy despite maintaining the current interest rate this month [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - Four out of six members of the Bank of Korea's committee are open to the possibility of a rate cut in the next three months [1] - A rate cut of 25 basis points is anticipated as early as August [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Key factors influencing the Bank of Korea's policy decisions include the progress of US-Korea trade negotiations and the overheating of the Seoul real estate market [1] - A significant increase in tariffs on Korean goods by the US could accelerate the rate cut by the Bank of Korea [1] - Conversely, further heating in the Seoul housing market may delay the timing of any rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to further ease monetary policy in July, according to a survey of economists [1] Economic Growth Expectations - Economists forecast a growth rate of 1.7% for 2025, a decrease from the previous estimate of 2.6% in the first quarter [1] - The expected growth rate for 2026 is also projected at 1.7% [1] Inflation Projections - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation expectation for 2025 is 0.9%, down from 1.7% in the first quarter [1] - For 2026, the CPI inflation expectation is 1.5% [1] - The core inflation rate for 2025 is anticipated to be 0.8%, lower than the first quarter's estimate of 1.5% [1] - The core inflation rate for 2026 is also projected at 1.5% [1] Quarterly Economic Growth - Economists predict a year-on-year economic growth of 3.0% for the second quarter of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is currently trading around 0.64, down 0.35% from the previous close of 0.6489, indicating a bearish trend in the currency market [1] - Key financial data releases this week include Australia's Q1 GDP growth rate, which, if it shows accelerated growth, could support the AUD despite adverse international trade conditions [2] - The April trade data and building approvals will also be significant; an expansion in the trade surplus or a less severe contraction in building approvals could bolster the AUD [2] Group 2 - The release of China's May PMI data may impact the AUD positively, as increased economic activity in China could enhance Australia's raw material exports [2] - The decline in the April CPI may lead the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue easing monetary policy, with market expectations of three more rate cuts by the end of the year, which could exert pressure on the AUD [2] - The AUD is viewed as a risk asset, and market sentiment can significantly influence its performance; heightened trade tensions remain a primary concern for the currency [2] Group 3 - Analysts emphasize that the Q1 GDP data release is a critical event for Australian traders, with potential shifts in market sentiment affecting the AUD's trajectory [2] - The AUD has been oscillating within a trading range for several weeks, indicating trader indecision regarding future direction; a cautious approach is advised before confirming any upward movement above the 0.6500 level [2] - A breakout above the 0.6500 level could target the earlier year high range of 0.6535-0.6340, with subsequent resistance levels at 0.6600 and 0.6640 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank indicates a potential slight easing of future monetary policy, suggesting a shift in economic strategy [1] Group 1 - The central bank's statement may reflect a response to changing economic conditions [1] - Future monetary policy adjustments could impact inflation and interest rates [1] - The indication of easing suggests a more accommodative stance in the face of economic challenges [1]