本周沪深两市出现了加速上攻的态势，在突破3700点整数关口之后继续上扬。本周创下了诸多新纪录， 比如两市总市值首次突破100万亿大关；还有一个指标，两融余额时隔10年再次回到2万亿以上。这表明 投资者信心正在逐步提升，而本周市场日成交量均在2万亿以上，最高达到2.7万亿，可见投资者交投意 愿十分活跃。反映场外资金入场意愿的两个指标也值得关注，一是7月份新开股票账户数达到200万户； 二是新基金发行首发规模不断提升，权益类基金的新发规模普遍超过10亿大关。这些都说明当前随着市 场行情逐步确立牛市走势，投资者信心正在逐步回升，市场走势也愈演愈烈，这充分验证了我此前提出 的判断"五穷六绝七翻身"，即下半年市场行情将有效突破去年10月8日创下的高点，进一步向上拓展空 间，如今这一判断已完美实现。 这轮行情与10年前相比，发起的原因类似，但走势预计会有所不同。此轮行情可能会延续2-3年，呈现 慢牛、长牛走势，而10年前2015年的大牛市则是快牛。当时场外配资较多，而这次从一开始就控制场外 配资，防止市场走向快牛、疯牛，力求走出慢牛、长牛走势，这更利于投资者在市场行情中获得较为理 想的回报。当前GDP与国债收益率的剪刀差 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a means for ordinary investors to navigate the uncertainties of the financial market, likening it to Noah's Ark for survival and growth [2][3] - The article discusses the theoretical foundation of asset allocation, highlighting Harry Markowitz's mean-variance model and its significance in reducing risk through the scientific combination of low-correlated assets [4] - It presents empirical evidence showing that 91% of mutual fund performance differences from 1970 to 2020 were due to asset allocation strategies rather than stock selection or market timing [4] Group 2 - The practical value of asset allocation is illustrated through examples of risk diversification, such as the "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds during market downturns, which can significantly reduce portfolio drawdowns [5] - Behavioral finance insights are shared, indicating that proper asset allocation can mitigate emotional responses during market volatility, reducing the psychological impact of asset fluctuations [5] - The article provides a performance comparison of a diversified asset allocation strategy from 2010 to 2020, showing an annualized return of 7.2% with a maximum drawdown of only 9.8% [5] Group 3 - The article outlines strategic tools for asset allocation, including the "Four Seasons" method that adjusts asset allocation based on economic cycles [6] - It discusses lifecycle-based asset allocation, recommending different asset mixes for various age groups to align risk exposure with life stages [7] - The use of various financial instruments, such as ETFs, convertible bonds, and REITs, is suggested to enhance portfolio diversification and returns [8] Group 4 - Historical lessons are drawn from past financial crises, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversified asset allocation strategies in mitigating losses compared to concentrated positions [9][10] - The article highlights the performance of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy during periods of economic stress, showcasing its ability to generate positive returns while traditional equities suffered losses [10] Group 5 - The future of asset allocation is discussed in the context of technological advancements, including big data, AI optimization, and blockchain, which are transforming the investment landscape [11] - The article concludes with a philosophy of viewing asset allocation as a means to achieve financial security and stability rather than speculative gains, emphasizing disciplined investment practices [12][13] Group 6 - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a risk management framework that balances stocks, bonds, and commodities to create a defensive investment strategy [26][27] - The method emphasizes dynamic rebalancing to maintain target asset allocations and enhance returns through systematic adjustments based on market conditions [28] - The article discusses the potential for generating excess returns through strategic asset allocation, including timing and sector rotation based on market conditions [30] Group 7 - A proposed asset allocation strategy is presented, incorporating global assets, bonds, A-shares, and alternative investments to create a robust defensive structure [34][36] - The strategy aims to mitigate geopolitical risks through diversified global exposure and balance between interest rate and credit risk [37] - The allocation includes a focus on high-dividend assets to provide stability during market downturns, reinforcing the importance of income-generating investments [38] Group 8 - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic balancing and threshold management in maintaining optimal asset allocations, ensuring that portfolios remain aligned with market conditions [44] - It discusses the need for liquidity management to address unexpected redemption demands, highlighting the role of cash and cash-equivalent assets [53] - The overall philosophy of the proposed asset allocation strategy is to build a "anti-fragile" investment system capable of withstanding market volatility while capturing structural opportunities [54][55]

Core Insights - The report indicates that from the beginning of 2025, macro hedge strategies, particularly risk parity strategies, face significant challenges due to increased policy uncertainty and market volatility, leading to a higher correlation among asset classes compared to the end of the previous year [2][3] - The performance of risk parity strategies has been notably poor, with a net value index of 0.989 as of May 16, 2025, reflecting a slight loss, while asset rotation strategies have shown better performance with a net value index of 1.013 [19][20] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for macro hedge strategies in the second half of 2025, recommending a reduction in allocations to risk parity managers and a focus on their ability to manage tail risks and dynamically adjust positions [3][19] Group 1: Performance Review and Strategy Classification - Macro hedge strategies are categorized into two primary types: "risk parity" and "asset rotation," with further distinctions based on subjective versus quantitative trading approaches [6][8] - The risk parity strategy aims for balanced risk allocation across various macroeconomic environments, while asset rotation strategies focus on actively trading based on economic conditions and market predictions [9][13] - In the first half of 2025, risk parity strategies experienced a maximum drawdown of -4.09%, while asset rotation strategies had a maximum drawdown of -3.46%, indicating that risk parity strategies underperformed [19][20] Group 2: Market Correlation and Asset Class Analysis - The correlation between major asset classes has increased in 2025, with the report noting a significant positive correlation between commodities and equity indices, while the negative correlation between bonds and equities has weakened [29][30] - The risk parity index showed the highest correlation with the commodity index at 0.607, while the asset rotation index had a higher correlation with the mid-cap index at 0.675, indicating differing dependencies on asset classes [30][31] - The report highlights that risk parity strategies are more reliant on bond performance compared to asset rotation strategies, which are more dependent on equity performance [39][44] Group 3: Investment Outlook and Recommendations - The report advises investors to maintain a cautious stance on macro hedge strategies, particularly risk parity strategies, due to anticipated continued volatility and potential negative returns [3][19] - It emphasizes the importance of evaluating managers' capabilities in managing tail risks and their flexibility in adjusting positions in response to market conditions [3][19] - The report also suggests focusing on asset rotation strategies that demonstrate advantages in specific asset classes to enhance portfolio resilience [3][19]

Group 1 - The core investment philosophy of the fund manager is to adapt investment paradigms according to changing market environments, focusing on discovering the fastest-growing emerging forces in the Chinese economy [1][2] - The investment strategy has shifted from industry beta-driven growth before 2019 to macro alpha-driven approaches from 2023 to 2025, emphasizing bottom-up stock selection and focusing on high-quality companies driven by entrepreneurial spirit [2][3] - The fund manager aims to identify companies that demonstrate China's competitive advantages through innovation, channel expansion, and technological breakthroughs, rather than relying solely on natural industry growth [3][4] Group 2 - The investment style is characterized by a balanced approach that combines offensive growth opportunities in sectors like new consumption and technology with defensive strategies to mitigate volatility risks [4][5] - The fund manager employs a diversified portfolio strategy, typically spreading investments across 5-6 industries to reduce the impact of volatility from any single sector or stock [4][5] - The investment framework utilizes the "one vertical and one horizontal" approach to calibrate investment coordinates based on macroeconomic conditions and national economic policies [4][5] Group 3 - The fund manager's previous product, Wan Jia New Opportunities Leading Enterprises Mixed A, has significantly outperformed its benchmark over the past five years, ranking in the top 8% among similar funds [6] - The upcoming floating fee rate fund, Wan Jia New Opportunities Sharing, aligns with the fund manager's long-term performance and risk control strategies, aiming to enhance investor experience [6] - The fund manager expresses confidence in the resilience of the Chinese economy and anticipates a structural market rally, shifting from a conservative strategy to a more aggressive focus on technology and consumption [6][7]