中国基金报记者 孙越 2024年9月24日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会联合宣布一系列重磅金融政策，A股市场迎来重要转折点。如今，已悄然走过一个年头。 【导读】"9·24"行情启动一周年：投资者数量大幅增长，券商财富管理加速转型 这一年，资本市场在波澜起伏中展现出新的气象。 A股市场投资者数量显著增长。据中国结算数据，自去年10月至今年8月，这11个月内A 股新开户数已达到2874.60万户。今年9月开户数仍未出炉，按照此前11个月的月均开户数估算，自去年"9·24"行情启动后的一年时间 里，A股新开户数有望突破3000万户。 在投资者数量增长的背后，券商财富管理业务转型正在加速进行。这一年，为匹配客户增长与需求升级，券商财富管理战略持续深化，从 早期以通道业务为主的模式，逐步转向以客户为中心、多元收入并重的财富管理架构。 投资者从 "交易博弈" 转向 "资产配置" 国联民生证券相关人士向记者表示，投资者对 ETF指数基金的认知和接受度越来越高，其通过指数化工具"被动"配置龙头，降低了个股炒 作频率，提升了市场稳定性。"散户化"向"机构化"转变加速。 西部证券相关人士也认为，个人投资者正加速从盲目追逐热点转向更 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is accelerating investment reforms to establish a "long money long investment" policy framework, with significant achievements in promoting long-term capital into the market as of August 2023 [1][4] Group 1: Investment Reforms - The CSRC has implemented a comprehensive fee reduction reform in the public fund industry, achieving a significant breakthrough with a three-phase fee reduction plan that has been fully rolled out [2] - The third phase of the fee reduction reform is expected to save investors approximately 30 billion yuan annually, with an overall reduction of about 34% in sales fees [2] - Cumulatively, the three phases of the public fund fee reform are projected to save investors around 51 billion yuan each year, exceeding the initial reduction targets [2] Group 2: Public Fund Industry Growth - The public fund industry in China has reached a record high, surpassing 35 trillion yuan by the end of August 2023, indicating its growing importance in the capital market [3] - The successful implementation of the fee reduction reform marks a new phase of high-quality development for the public fund industry [3] Group 3: Long-term Capital Investment - Long-term capital plays a crucial role in stabilizing the market and mitigating short-term volatility, with a reported increase of 6.4 trillion yuan in the A-share market's circulating value held by various long-term funds, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.7% [4] - As of August 2023, various long-term funds collectively held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share circulating market value [4] Group 4: ETF Development - The CSRC has proposed establishing a fast-track approval process for ETF index funds to enhance the scale and proportion of equity funds, with ETF assets exceeding 5 trillion yuan by August 2023 [5] - The development of innovative ETF products has catered to diverse investment needs, contributing to the high-quality growth of the industry [5] - Central Huijin has significantly increased its holdings in ETFs, with a total value of 1.28 trillion yuan by mid-2025, accounting for nearly 30% of the total ETF market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is accelerating investment reforms to promote long-term capital investment in the capital market, with significant achievements reported in the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued guidelines to encourage medium- and long-term funds to enter the market, with a total of approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market value held by various medium- and long-term funds as of the end of August this year [1][4]. - The comprehensive fee reduction reform for public funds has been fully implemented, with a projected annual reduction of approximately 510 million yuan for investors, exceeding the initial targets [2][3]. Group 2: Public Fund Industry - The public fund industry in China has reached a record high, surpassing 35 trillion yuan in total assets by the end of August, marking a significant milestone in the industry's development [3]. - The fee reduction reform is seen as a critical step towards high-quality development in the public fund sector, with the third phase of the reform focusing on reducing sales fees and benefiting investors [2][3]. Group 3: Role of Medium- and Long-Term Funds - Medium- and long-term funds are crucial for stabilizing the capital market and mitigating short-term volatility, with a year-on-year increase of 42.7% in the market value held by these funds [4]. - The government has implemented measures to facilitate the entry of social security, insurance, and pension funds into the market, enhancing the overall investment landscape [4]. Group 4: ETF Development - The scale of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has surpassed 5 trillion yuan, with new innovative products launched to meet diverse investment needs [5]. - Central Huijin has played a significant role in boosting market confidence by increasing its holdings in ETFs, with a total value reaching 1.28 trillion yuan by mid-2025 [5].

Group 1 - The majority of investment advisors maintain a neutral to optimistic outlook on the macroeconomic situation for Q3 2025, with over 70% holding this view [22][23][24] - Nearly 80% of advisors are bullish on the A-share market for Q3, with a structural market trend expected, favoring sectors like technology, new consumption, real estate, and finance [22][28][29] - The anticipated upper limit for the Shanghai Composite Index is projected to be around 3500 points, with 42% of advisors expecting it to be near this level [4][18][29] Group 2 - Advisors suggest that the highest value for asset allocation in Q3 2025 lies in equities, with 59% favoring this category, marking a significant increase [10][35][36] - A flexible thematic investment strategy is preferred by 44% of advisors, indicating a shift towards more dynamic investment approaches [6][37] - The expectation for liquidity in Q3 is leaning towards a relaxed environment, with 57% of advisors predicting a loose or neutral liquidity stance [26][27] Group 3 - High-net-worth clients have shown a strong inclination to increase their equity positions, with 70% reporting profits in Q2 2025 and a rising willingness to add to their investments [40][41][43] - The preference for high-dividend stocks remains strong, with 36% of advisors believing these stocks have reached reasonable valuations [32][39] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is gaining attention, with 38% of advisors viewing it positively, driven by policy optimization and valuation recovery [34]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a means for ordinary investors to navigate the uncertainties of the financial market, likening it to Noah's Ark for survival and growth [2][3] - The article discusses the theoretical foundation of asset allocation, highlighting Harry Markowitz's mean-variance model and its significance in reducing risk through the scientific combination of low-correlated assets [4] - It presents empirical evidence showing that 91% of mutual fund performance differences from 1970 to 2020 were due to asset allocation strategies rather than stock selection or market timing [4] Group 2 - The practical value of asset allocation is illustrated through examples of risk diversification, such as the "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds during market downturns, which can significantly reduce portfolio drawdowns [5] - Behavioral finance insights are shared, indicating that proper asset allocation can mitigate emotional responses during market volatility, reducing the psychological impact of asset fluctuations [5] - The article provides a performance comparison of a diversified asset allocation strategy from 2010 to 2020, showing an annualized return of 7.2% with a maximum drawdown of only 9.8% [5] Group 3 - The article outlines strategic tools for asset allocation, including the "Four Seasons" method that adjusts asset allocation based on economic cycles [6] - It discusses lifecycle-based asset allocation, recommending different asset mixes for various age groups to align risk exposure with life stages [7] - The use of various financial instruments, such as ETFs, convertible bonds, and REITs, is suggested to enhance portfolio diversification and returns [8] Group 4 - Historical lessons are drawn from past financial crises, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversified asset allocation strategies in mitigating losses compared to concentrated positions [9][10] - The article highlights the performance of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy during periods of economic stress, showcasing its ability to generate positive returns while traditional equities suffered losses [10] Group 5 - The future of asset allocation is discussed in the context of technological advancements, including big data, AI optimization, and blockchain, which are transforming the investment landscape [11] - The article concludes with a philosophy of viewing asset allocation as a means to achieve financial security and stability rather than speculative gains, emphasizing disciplined investment practices [12][13] Group 6 - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a risk management framework that balances stocks, bonds, and commodities to create a defensive investment strategy [26][27] - The method emphasizes dynamic rebalancing to maintain target asset allocations and enhance returns through systematic adjustments based on market conditions [28] - The article discusses the potential for generating excess returns through strategic asset allocation, including timing and sector rotation based on market conditions [30] Group 7 - A proposed asset allocation strategy is presented, incorporating global assets, bonds, A-shares, and alternative investments to create a robust defensive structure [34][36] - The strategy aims to mitigate geopolitical risks through diversified global exposure and balance between interest rate and credit risk [37] - The allocation includes a focus on high-dividend assets to provide stability during market downturns, reinforcing the importance of income-generating investments [38] Group 8 - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic balancing and threshold management in maintaining optimal asset allocations, ensuring that portfolios remain aligned with market conditions [44] - It discusses the need for liquidity management to address unexpected redemption demands, highlighting the role of cash and cash-equivalent assets [53] - The overall philosophy of the proposed asset allocation strategy is to build a "anti-fragile" investment system capable of withstanding market volatility while capturing structural opportunities [54][55]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The investment advisory community holds a generally optimistic view on the macroeconomic outlook for Q2, with over 60% expressing a neutral to optimistic stance on the current economic situation [5][7][8] - A significant portion of advisors (44%) believe that the economy will show improvement in Q2 compared to Q1, while 29% anticipate some downward pressure [8] Group 2: Stock Market Predictions - Over 60% of advisors predict that the A-share market will rise in Q2, driven by ongoing growth stabilization policies [6][10] - The most favored investment theme remains technology stocks, although there is a noted decrease in enthusiasm for this sector [10][13] Group 3: Sector Preferences - Advisors are increasingly optimistic about the consumer sector and high-dividend stocks, with many indicating that these areas present good investment opportunities [10][14] - In the technology sector, 41% of advisors still favor it, but this is a decline of 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [13] Group 4: Asset Allocation - Equity assets are viewed as the most attractive for allocation in Q2, with 42% of advisors recommending stocks [15][16] - There is a notable increase in the recommendation for gold and precious metals, with 20% of advisors suggesting these assets, up 11 percentage points from the previous quarter [15][16] Group 5: High Net Worth Client Behavior - In Q1, 65% of high net worth clients reported profits, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous quarter [21] - 45% of high net worth clients opted to increase their positions in Q1, with technology stocks being the primary focus [22] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Insights - The investment attractiveness of the Hong Kong market has risen, with 81% of advisors recognizing its investment value [25][26] - High net worth clients have shown increased enthusiasm for Hong Kong stocks, with 41% increasing their investments in this market [25][26]