Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate at 5.25%-5.5%, marking a shift in economic description from "moderate expansion" to "slowing" [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes for the first time since 1993, indicating increased division among policymakers [2] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 decreased from 46 basis points to 36 basis points following Powell's comments [1] Inflation and Employment - Powell highlighted that tariffs have been overlooked in their impact on inflation, suggesting that the costs will gradually be passed to consumers [1] - The labor market remains robust, with unemployment rates at historical lows, but a gradual weakening is expected in Q4 [1] - CPI growth is anticipated to rebound slightly in Q3 due to tariff impacts, but may decline again in Q4 as demand slows [1] Future Rate Cuts - The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in Q3, with potential cuts in October and December, bringing the year-end policy rate to approximately 3.83% [1] - The anticipated cuts are driven by rising unemployment and the economic impact of tariffs [2] Market Implications - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise initially before declining, with year-end projections at around 4.2% [2] - The U.S. dollar index may rise in Q3 due to inflation rebounds, but could decline in Q4 as inflation falls and rate cuts are implemented [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the current week (June 16 - 20, 2025) and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 6月16日 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities at 09:30, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [3]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation at 10:00, releasing macro - economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and total retail sales of consumer goods from January to May. Forecasts include 3.9% y/y growth in cumulative urban fixed - asset investment from January to May (4.0% in January - April), 5.9% y/y growth in industrial added value of large - scale industries in May (6.1% in April), 5.0% y/y growth in total retail sales of consumer goods in May (5.1% in April), and a surveyed unemployment rate of 5.1% in May (same as April). Lower - than - previous growth rates may suppress the rise of stock index and commodity futures but help the rise of treasury bond futures [4]. - The central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation [5]. - OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report between 18:00 - 21:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [7]. 6月17日 - The US Department of Commerce will release US retail sales for May at 20:30. The expected monthly rate of retail sales is - 0.7% (0.1% previously), and the expected monthly rate of core retail sales is 0.3% (0.1% previously). A lower - than - previous monthly rate of retail sales may help the rise of gold and silver futures but suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [8]. - The Federal Reserve will release US industrial output for May at 21:15. The expected monthly rate of industrial output is 0.1% (0% previously). A slightly higher - than - previous monthly rate may slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals futures but slightly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [9]. - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report at 16:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [10]. - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision at 11:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [11]. 6月18日 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18 - 19. The theme is "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation, and High - Quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial regulatory authorities will announce several major financial policies during the forum [12]. - The US Department of Commerce will release data on new home starts and building permits for May at 20:30. The expected annualized total of new home starts is 1.36 million units (1.361 million previously), and the expected initial annualized total of building permits is 1.43 million units (1.422 million previously) [13]. - The US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 at 20:30. The expected number is 245,000 (248,000 previously). A slightly lower - than - previous number may slightly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures and slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [15]. - The EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 at 22:30. A continued decrease in inventories may help the rise of crude oil and related commodity futures [16]. 6月19日 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. It is expected that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged. Attention should be paid to the economic outlook summary and Powell's speech and their impact on relevant futures prices [17]. - The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 16:30, expected to keep the policy rate at 0.25% [18]. - The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% [19]. 6月20日 - The People's Bank of China will authorize the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce the loan prime rate (LPR) for June 2025 at 09:00. The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% (unchanged from the previous value), and the expected 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50% (unchanged from the previous value). If unchanged, the impact on commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures is basically neutral [20]. - Eurostat will release the preliminary consumer confidence index for the eurozone in June at 22:00. The expected preliminary value for May is - 14.05 (- 15.2 previously) [21].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including central bank announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical factors [2]. Key Events and Data Releases June 3 - Markit will release China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May at 9:45, with an expected value of 50.6 (previous: 50.4). A slightly higher value may mildly boost commodity and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [4]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary May CPI for the Eurozone at 17:00, with expected annual rates of 2.0% (previous: 2.2%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.5% (previous: 2.7%) for the core harmonized CPI [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the April unemployment rate for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected rate of 6.2% (previous: 6.2%) [6]. - The US Department of Commerce will release April factory orders at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of -3.1% (previous: 4.3%) [8]. June 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field for late May at 9:30 [9]. - ADP will release the US May ADP employment change at 20:15, with an expected increase of 115,000 (previous: 62,000). A significantly higher value may suppress gold and silver futures but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 21:45, with the overnight lending rate expected to remain at 2.75% [11]. - The Institute for Supply Management will release the US May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected value of 52 (previous: 51.6). A slightly higher value may mildly suppress gold futures [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending May 30 at 22:30. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [13]. June 5 - The Fed will release the Beige Book at 02:00 [14]. - Markit will release China's Caixin Services PMI and Composite PMI for May at 09:45, with an expected services PMI of 51.1 (previous: 50.7). A slightly higher value may mildly boost stock index and commodity futures but suppress bond futures [15]. - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15, with expected rate cuts. The main refinancing rate is expected to drop from 2.40% to 2.15%, the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, and the marginal lending rate from 2.65% to 2.45% [16]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 at 20:30, with an expected number of 245,000 (previous: 240,000). A slightly higher value may boost gold and silver futures but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [17]. June 6 - The EU Statistics Bureau will release Eurozone April retail sales at 17:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous: - 0.1%) and an annual rate of 1.4% (previous: 1.5%) [18]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the final Q1 2025 GDP for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected annual rate of 0.4% (revised: 0.3%) and a quarterly rate of 1.2% (revised: 1.2%) [19]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non - farm payroll report at 20:30, with an expected seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll increase of 130,000 (previous: 177,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous: 4.2%), and an average hourly earnings annual rate of 3.7% (previous: 3.8%). A significantly lower non - farm payroll increase may boost gold and silver futures and suppress other commodity futures [20]. June 7 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will release China's May foreign exchange and gold reserves. The April foreign exchange reserves were $3282 billion, and the April gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces [21].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in U.S. long-term Treasury yields has led to an increase in the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index showing fluctuations throughout the trading day [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Dollar Index - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 6.5 basis points, closing at 4.538%, providing support for the dollar [3]. - The dollar index rose by 0.03%, closing at 101.037 [2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted that while recent inflation data shows progress towards the 2% target, the outlook remains uncertain due to potential price increases from import tariffs [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that April's mild consumer price inflation may not reflect the impact of rising import tariffs, indicating a need for more data to assess price and economic trends [3]. Group 3: Currency Movements and Trade Negotiations - Market rumors suggested that the U.S. is seeking a weaker dollar in trade negotiations, but this was denied by Bloomberg citing anonymous sources [4]. - The Japanese yen saw the largest gain against the dollar among G10 currencies, supported by potential discussions on exchange rates in trade talks and hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor [4]. - As of the end of the New York trading session, the euro was at 1.1178 USD, the pound at 1.3264 USD, and the dollar was at 146.72 JPY, among other currency values [4].