▲ATFX图 国际金价稳定运行于4000美元上方，今日盘中最高价4392美元。离岸人民币兑美元处于升值趋势。年初USDCNH报价为7.3355，年内最低触及7.0855，最 新价7.1302，升值幅度2500基点。国际金价持续走强与离岸人民币升值趋势共同促进了国内黄金市场突破千元关口。 本轮国内外金价的走强，主要得益于美国经济衰退预期和美元国际信用被削弱。今年4月份以来，特朗普一意孤行地推行高关税政策，欧盟、英国、日本 等国家被迫与美国签署不合理的贸易协议。为应对美国的单边政策，各国中央银行都有计划增持现货黄金，以分散美元在资产负债表中的占比。 随着国际金价不断走高，叠加人民币对美元升值，国内黄金报价突破1000元大关。黄金期货市场的主力是沪金22512合约，持仓量22.2万手。北京时间今 日13:51，该合约报价首次突破1000元。截至发稿，黄金TD产品提高报价999.96，距离千元关口仅一步之遥，有望日内同步破千。 9月份美国的新增非农就业人口仅有5.5万人，虽然高于前值2万人，但依旧处于历史地位附近。糟糕的就业形势逼迫美联储提前降息，众多美联储理事预 计今年 10月份和12月份美联储将连续降息。美联储理 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The US dollar index rebounded near 100, and copper prices fluctuated weakly. Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data led to expectations of Fed monetary easing. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracted non - US copper to the US. - The shortage of copper mine supply is a key concern. Mines like Grasberg, Kamoa - Kakula, and El Teniente have had disruptions, which will support copper prices in the medium - to - long term. Focus on demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations, with support at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices continued to decline, and the spot market was weak. With sufficient supply, high operating capacity, and increasing overseas supply, while demand was weak, the alumina market is expected to remain in surplus, with the main contract oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. - The center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum futures prices moved up, with a tight - balance fundamental situation. Macro - level factors are positive, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract in the 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton range [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices oscillated with aluminum prices. Cost support was strong due to rising scrap aluminum prices. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, while demand showed a mild recovery. Inventory was increasing, and imports were limited. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract in the 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton range [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated, with pressure above. The supply - side logic of looseness has been transmitted from zinc mines to zinc ingots. The increase in zinc ingot production is limited by factors such as TC and sulfuric acid prices. Demand was not outstanding. It is expected to maintain oscillations, with the main contract in the 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton range [7]. Tin - Tin prices were affected by supply and demand. Supply of tin ore was tight, and smelting processing fees were low. Demand in traditional sectors was weak, although some consumption was driven by AI and photovoltaics. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - level uncertainties, focus on the buying point when the macro - sentiment drops. The future trend depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - Shanghai nickel futures oscillated weakly. Macro - level factors were uncertain, including Sino - US tariffs and Fed policies. Spot nickel prices declined slightly, and downstream procurement increased. Nickel ore prices were firm, and nickel - iron prices were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton range [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel futures prices oscillated downward. Macro - level risks were amplified, and raw material prices provided cost support. Demand in the peak season did not materialize, and inventory pressure increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton range [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated strongly. The fundamental situation was in a tight - balance during the peak season. Production increased, demand was optimistic, and the entire industry chain continued to reduce inventory. It is expected to oscillate, with the price center in the 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 1.11% to 85990 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped to 50 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper rose 1.48% to 86160 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to 20 yuan/ton. SMM wet - process copper rose 1.15% to 85895 yuan/ton, with a stable premium of - 45 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased 10.06% to 3567 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to - 10 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased to 30 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to 90 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and in August, imports decreased 10.99% to 26.43 million tons. The import copper concentrate index increased 0.44 to - 40.36 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased 3.50% to 66.02 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production decreased to 43.44%, and that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 18.56%. Social inventory in China increased 15.98% to 17.20 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 15.42% to 10.97 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.48% to 20900 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to 0 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread remained at - 20 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased to - 15 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 5 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. In August, electrolytic aluminum imports decreased to 21.73 million tons, and exports decreased to 2.56 million tons. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, cables, sheets, foils, and primary aluminum alloys all decreased. Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased 9.80% to 65.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.41% to 50.4 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained stable. The refined - scrap spreads in Foshan, Shanghai, etc. showed different changes. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 55 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased 7.48% to 66.10 million tons. In August, primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased 1.88% to 27.10 million tons, and scrap aluminum production increased 8.16% to 79.76 million tons. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased. Social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased 1.26% to 5.64 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.05% to 22210 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to - 55 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 4931 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.47 [7]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to - 20 yuan/ton, and other monthly spreads remained stable [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased 4.17% to 60.01 million tons. In August, imports increased 43.30% to 2.57 million tons, and exports decreased 23.40% to 0.03 million tons. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloys, and zinc oxide decreased. Social inventory of zinc ingots in China increased 15.35% to 16.31 million tons, and LME inventory increased 3.00% to 3.9 million tons [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased 0.14% to 282000 yuan/ton, and its premium remained stable. LME 0 - 3 premium decreased 70.98% to - 105.99 dollars/ton [9]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss decreased 16.14% to - 14872.09 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.94 [9]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased to - 430 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 250 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 200 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to 20 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased 0.11% to 10267 tons. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased 31.71% to 10510 tons, and the average operating rate decreased 31.77% to 43.60%. In September, Indonesian refined tin exports increased 50.00% to 4800 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased 0.29% to 122100 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased 0.30% to 123300 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased 4.55% to - 203 dollars/ton, and the import profit/loss decreased 28.08% to - 1086 yuan/ton [11]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 160 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 220 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to - 220 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - In China, refined nickel products increased 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased 3.00% to 17010 tons. SHFE inventory increased 1.75% to 29008 tons, social inventory increased 7.02% to 43694 tons, and LME inventory increased 0.48% to 243258 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased 0.38% to 12950 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased 7.77% to 515 yuan/ton [13]. Raw Material Price - The prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore, South African chrome concentrate, 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron, and other raw materials showed different changes [13]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 25 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread remained at - 90 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to - 60 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In China, 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and in Indonesia, it increased 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. In August, stainless steel imports increased 60.48% to 11.72 million tons, exports increased 7.60% to 44.79 million tons, and net exports decreased 3.65% to 33.07 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased 6.93% to 50.46 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 0.79% to 8.45 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 0.14% to 73000 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 0.14% to 70750 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased 0.12% to 828 dollars/ton [15]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to 20 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 120 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2601 spread increased to - 80 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased 2.37% to 87260 tons, and battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased 4.77% to 67240 tons. In August, exports increased 0.70% to 383 tons. In October, production capacity increased 3.67% to 149820 tons, and the operating rate remained at 55%. Total inventory increased 0.38% to 94539 tons, downstream inventory increased 15.29% to 609999 tons, and smelter inventory decreased 19.16% to 32930 tons [15].